This week, macro factors were intertwined around two main threads: the acceleration of US-Iran peace talks and higher-than-expected inflation. Peace talks heated up significantly — Trump said a peace agreement would be signed as early as this weekend in Europe, and Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Brent crude oil fell to a near two-month low of around $89/bbl, and the geopolitical risk premium rapidly faded. However, mid-week, May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, the first time it has exceeded 4% in three years, while the US Fed kept its core interest rate unchanged this week. By the end of the week, US-Iran optimism eased growth concerns. Overall, as geopolitical tensions cooled and sticky inflation persisted, copper prices retreated from highs and fluctuated more amid macro disturbances. Fundamentals side, China's spot market strengthened notably. On the inventory front, SMM social inventory continued to decline, and suppliers held prices firm with strong willingness. Spot premiums quickly shifted from discounts to premiums, and the backwardation structure near delivery supported SHFE copper premiums. Demand side, when copper prices pulled back, bargain hunting was active and transactions recovered, but when prices rebounded, downstream buying interest was suppressed and the market cooled, with overall demand mainly based on rigid needs. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered slightly, and buyers' purchase willingness increased. Overall, the market pattern featured support from low inventory, strengthening spot premiums, and demand switching with price levels, forming support for copper prices on the downside. Looking ahead to next week, macro focus will be on whether the US-Iran agreement can be finalized and progress on resuming navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The approaching June 30 ruling on US copper cathode tariffs also adds uncertainty. If peace talks materialize and geopolitical risks further recede, risk appetite will rebound, but oil prices and inflation expectations will fall in tandem. If sticky inflation leads the Fed to turn hawkish, it will weigh on risk assets. Fundamentals side, low inventory and strengthening spot premiums will provide downside support, while high copper prices will curb buying on rallies. LME copper is expected to trade at $13,300–13,800/mt, and SHFE copper is expected to trade at 104,200–105,800 yuan/mt, mainly moving sideways at high levels with a slightly weaker center. Spot premiums are expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of suppliers holding prices firm after delivery and the downstream restocking intensity.

【SMM Steel】On June 9 2026, Vallourec and Ultra Corpotech Pvt Ltd signed a Memorandum of Understanding to deploy VAM threading capabilities near Mumbai, India. A dedicated threading cell is scheduled for implementation in late 2026 with commissioning in early 2027, aiming to provide premium thread protection and related services for the Indian oilfield services sector. The asset-light cooperation allows both parties to respond quickly to regional demand with minimal capital footprint. Vallourec will license its VAM threading and inspection technology along with quality control system support. The agreement reflects a strategic shift for Vallourec as the company expands access to its premium connection technology through local partners in Asia, following similar agreements with Vietnam Process Equipment and Technology Joint Stock Company in March 2025 and Saudi Arabia's Industrial Investment Company in November 2025.

Against the backdrop of China's ongoing and deepening "dual carbon" strategy, hydrogen energy, leveraging its core advantage of zero-carbon cleanliness, has widely penetrated into diverse fields such as transportation, energy storage, industry, and cultural tourism, becoming a core driver of green energy transition. However, traditional hydrogen storage methods have long had obvious shortcomings: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage is prone to safety hazards such as leakage and deflagration, while cryogenic liquid hydrogen storage suffers from high energy consumption and costs, making it difficult to meet the current industry demands for safer, more efficient, and more accessible development. The industry urgently needs entirely new hydrogen energy storage and supply solutions. Addressing this industry pain point, Jiayi Huaqing Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the 7.2kg Solid-State Hydrogen Storage System , which, built on mature metal hydride adsorption-based hydrogen storage technology, reconstructs the safety ecosystem of hydrogen energy storage and transportation, providing robust technical support for the large-scale deployment of hydrogen energy across multiple scenarios. It is reported that this new solid-state hydrogen storage system adopts an integrated architecture, consolidating six core components to achieve intelligent, precise, and safe management across the entire process of hydrogen storage and supply, building a solid foundation for stable system operation from the equipment detail level. The device is equipped with an intelligent LCD touchscreen that displays real-time core operational data including pressure, temperature, and operating status. It also features a built-in hydrogen concentration audible and visual alarm device that provides instant warnings when parameters become abnormal, mitigating safety risks at the source. Additionally, dual pressure gauges are configured for independent management of inlet and outlet gas conditions: the inlet side can precisely regulate pressure to 2-5MPa, while the outlet side can deliver stable hydrogen output in the 0.01-0.5MPa range, precisely matching the operational requirements of different hydrogen-consuming equipment. Both ends adopt NPT1/4 standard connectors, ensuring both compatibility and safety. In terms of equipment compatibility and temperature control assurance, the system is equipped with customized inlet and outlet gas connectors that can be flexibly adjusted in specifications according to downstream equipment, seamlessly interfacing with various terminal devices such as hydrogen-powered electric motorcycles, drones, vessels, and energy storage cabinets. A 25mm-diameter ferrule-type circulating water inlet is provided, equipped with a built-in temperature sensor for real-time monitoring of inlet water temperature. Through the water circulation system, precise heating and cooling regulation of hydrogen storage materials is achieved, ensuring the equipment consistently operates under optimal conditions. The integrated cylinder valve incorporates pressure-reducing valve functionality, automatically adapting to the pressure standards of various hydrogen-consuming equipment. Combined with a dual design of quick connectors and rebar threads, it significantly simplifies equipment installation and subsequent maintenance procedures. Driven by foundational technological innovation, this system has developed four core performance advantages, comprehensively leading the solid-state hydrogen storage segment. In terms of safety, the device relies on a low-pressure solid-state hydrogen storage mode combined with metal hydride hydrogen-locking technology, fundamentally eliminating the leakage and deflagration hazards of high-pressure hydrogen storage. Coupled with multiple intelligent monitoring and early warning systems and having passed rigorous testing under various harsh operating conditions, its safety performance far exceeds that of traditional hydrogen storage equipment. In terms of operational stability, independent monitoring via dual inlet and outlet gauges and automatic pressure stabilization through the built-in pressure-reducing valve ensure smooth and fluctuation-free hydrogen output, meeting the stable hydrogen supply requirements of various equipment and effectively enhancing system operational efficiency. Intelligence and environmental adaptability: the device achieves full operational data visualization and management through the LCD touchscreen, with round-the-clock intelligent monitoring and surveillance, rapid response to abnormal conditions, and fully intelligent safety operations and maintenance throughout the entire process. It also features an ultra-wide operating temperature range of -15°C to 60°C , capable of handling complex conditions such as extreme cold, intense heat, and high altitudes with ease, enabling stable deployment across different regions and various scenarios nationwide, with exceptionally strong environmental adaptability. Leveraging its safe, reliable, efficient, and stable product characteristics, this 7.2kg solid-state hydrogen storage system can broadly empower zero-carbon transformation across multiple fields, with rich and diverse application scenarios. In the transportation sector, it can be paired with hydrogen-powered electric motorcycles, drones, patrol boats, industrial forklifts, and logistics hydrogen vehicles to achieve safe energy replenishment and extended driving range. In the energy sector, it can be combined with PV hydrogen energy storage cabinets to facilitate green electricity storage, absorption, and efficient utilization, promoting the deployment of distributed new energy systems. In industrial and park scenarios, it can meet the demands for stable hydrogen supply in factories and zero-carbon smart park energy supporting needs, facilitating low-carbon industrial upgrades. In the cultural tourism and commercial sector, it can be adapted for clean energy supply in green scenic areas and zero-carbon commercial districts, creating benchmark low-carbon demonstration applications. The successful launch of Jiayi Huaqing's 7.2kg solid-state hydrogen storage system represents a significant breakthrough by the enterprise in the core technology domain of hydrogen energy storage and supply, effectively addressing the industry pain points of insufficient safety, poor economics, and weak compatibility in hydrogen energy storage and transportation. The commercialization and promotion of this product will accelerate the commercialization and large-scale popularization of hydrogen energy technology, continuously improve the application ecosystem across the entire industry chain of hydrogen energy, and provide solid technological and equipment support for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals and green, low-carbon energy transition.

May 22, 2026 7:07 AM EDT Key Points Central banks sold gold to defend currencies amid 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and energy crisis. Jeffrey Currie predicts gold could fall to $3,750 before rallying as structural buyers return. Long-term, AI-driven demand and underinvestment may push gold prices toward $10,000 per ounce. Gold has always been the asset investors run to when they stop believing in everything else. It is the trade that pays off when central banks lose credibility, when currencies wobble, when geopolitics get loud, and when the rest of the stock market finally cracks. For most of the past three years, that playbook worked beautifully. Sovereign buyers from Beijing to Warsaw to Ankara stacked bullion at a pace not seen in half a century. Retail piled in behind them. The metal blew through one all-time high after another, and the bears went quiet. Then 2026 happened. A US-Israeli war on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, sent energy prices vertical, and forced some of the same central banks that drove the rally to start unloading their gold to defend collapsing currencies. The yellow metal has now given back almost all of its year-to-date gains, hovering near $4,534 an ounce on May 19, according to Fortune . Now one of Wall Street ’s most respected commodity voices is telling clients the pain is far from over. And the eventual payoff, if his call lands, will dwarf anything the gold market has ever produced. Why this gold selloff is just getting started The bear in question is Jeffrey Currie, the former global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs ( GS ), who spent 27 years at the firm before leaving in 2023 and is now chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group ( CG ), according to Carlyle . He is best known for calling the 2000s commodity supercycle and predicting oil’s run past $100 a barrel. In a recent thread on X , the former Twitter, Currie wrote that he has been “short gold” since March despite describing himself as a “gold perma bull”. His thesis is mechanical, not philosophical. The Iran conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy import costs higher and pressured emerging-market currencies. To defend those currencies and pay for fuel, some of the world’s most prolific gold buyers have flipped into sellers. Turkey is the cleanest example. Its central bank sold or swapped roughly 79 tons of gold in the first quarter alone, with “the largest sales from Turkey (60 tonnes) and Russia (16 tonnes) [offsetting] purchases elsewhere,” according to the World Gold Council . “When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold’s biggest bid disappears,” Currie wrote on X . That dynamic, in his view, points to a deeper retracement. He sees gold sliding all the way toward $4,000, with a possible overshoot into the $3,750 range, before sovereign buyers, particularly China, step back in and restart the rally. The bigger thesis behind the $10,000 gold target Currie’s gold call sits inside a much bigger argument about how a decade of capital flows have left commodity markets dangerously under-invested. After running the numbers against his framework myself, the imbalance is more extreme than most equity investors realize. The argument starts with where the money has gone. The Magnificent Seven plus Oracle ( ORCL ) are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on artificial intelligence capital expenditure in 2026 alone, which Currie called “the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements,” according to Benzinga . Meanwhile, the suppliers cannot keep up. The numbers Currie laid out paint a clear picture: Information Technology and Communication Services make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500 , while Energy and Materials together account for about 6%. Upstream oil and gas investment is down 35% from its 2015 peak. The world’s top 20 mining companies are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle, per Currie’s analysis. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, up 3% year-on-year. Source: Currie’s analysis via Benzinga Currie calls this transition the move from “HAGO” (Hard Assets, Global Operations) into “ HALO ” (Hard Assets, Local Operations), where physical commodities are repriced upward as supply struggles to meet AI -driven demand. “The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow. Then the new supply,” Currie wrote in his X thread . That sequence, in his framework, is what eventually pushes gold to $10,000. Once central banks stop fighting inflation , pivot back to easier policy, and resume buying physical metal, the same forced sellers of today flip back into structural bidders. What this gold call means for your portfolio None of this guarantees Currie is right. Plenty of veteran strategists have made bold price calls that aged poorly, and the path from $4,000 to $10,000 will almost certainly take years rather than quarters. Iris Cibre, founder of Phoenix Consultancy in Istanbul, has noted that Turkey’s recent gold operations were primarily designed to support the lira during a specific war-driven liquidity crunch, not a verdict on gold’s long-term value, according to the Canadian Mining Report . That distinction matters. Forced selling is not fundamental selling, and a 2025 survey found that 95% of central banks expected global gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, according to the World Gold Council . In my analysis, what makes Currie’s framework interesting is the structural argument underneath the headline number. Markets have systematically underfunded the physical world for a decade while flooding the digital one with capital. If he is even directionally right, the next gold cycle is less about jewelry, inflation hedges, or fear trades. It is about repricing every ton of metal that an AI data center, an EV plant, or a defense supply chain ultimately needs, an argument that echoes Goldman’s own longer-term outlook for the rest of this decade. For investors holding the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) ETF, which was up 3.32% year-to-date as of last week, the short-term setup looks ugly. Currie himself is positioned for a deeper drawdown first. But the same trade he is shorting today is the one he expects to flip aggressively long once the energy shock starts hurting growth. If you own gold, the next chapter of this story will probably be written by central banks, not by day traders. And central banks have very long memories. Source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/veteran-goldman-strategist-makes-stunning-10000-gold-call

2026 marks the opening year of the “15th Five-Year Plan.” Against the backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and the deepening advancement of high-quality development in China, the zinc industry is undergoing profound transformation: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tension; divergence between domestic and overseas inventory reflects the complex dynamics of supply and demand rebalancing; and technological innovation is becoming the key momentum to resolve contradictions and reshape the pattern. Key “15th Five-Year Plan” sectors such as new energy and new-type infrastructure are injecting new momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon development and the circular economy are also accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic under the impetus of technological innovation. With the joint support of upstream and downstream enterprises in the zinc industry, industry associations, and relevant parties, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference and the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technological Innovation Forum, and the 14th Zinc Salts, Zinc Oxide, and Secondary Zinc Resources Development Forum, and the Casting Zinc Alloy Development Forum are about to be held in Qingdao, Shandong, from August 6 to 8. Under the theme “Harness Zinc Momentum · Build the Zinc Industry · Embark on a New Journey,” the conference will be driven by a dual engine of macro perspective and fundamentals analysis, closely aligned with the main thread of high-quality development under the “15th Five-Year Plan,” and will focus on four key dimensions—macro policy, the supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It will drive cost reduction and efficiency enhancement through technological breakthroughs, respond to market fluctuations through collaborative innovation, and join hands to chart a new blueprint for high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry.‌ Henan Feima Hoisting Machinery Group Co., Ltd. will make a grand appearance at this event, discussing industry development trends with industry peers and working together to propel the zinc industry to new heights. Click to register for attendance immediately, and jointly witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event to create a brilliant new chapter together! Henan Feima Hoisting Machinery Group Co., Ltd. is a professional manufacturer primarily producing bridge and gantry cranes, wire-rope electric hoists, construction machinery, and lifting accessories. It is a member unit of the Bridge and Gantry Crane Branch of the China Heavy Machinery Industry Association and a council member unit of the Hoist Sub-Association. It was among the first in the industry to pass ISO quality system certification, and its products are underwritten by China United Property Insurance Company and Pacific Insurance Company. Founded in 1992, Feima Group covers an area of 200,000 m² and currently has more than 810 employees. It is equipped with 226 sets of various production and inspection equipment, boasts strong technical capabilities, and has accumulated extensive technical and management experience. It has comprehensive production and manufacturing capabilities, and its technical strength, equipment, processes, and detection methods are all at a leading level in China. Feima Group is a high-tech enterprise, a specialized and sophisticated new-type enterprise, a China Quality Integrity Enterprise, a Henan Province technology enterprise, and a Level 1 enterprise for work safety standardization, and has received multiple honorary titles from ministries and at the provincial and municipal levels, including “Quality Management Standards-Compliant Enterprise,” “Advanced Unit in Metrology Work,” “Certificate of Qualification for Enterprise Quality Inspection Institution,” “Contract-Honoring and Credit-Keeping Enterprise,” “Advanced Unit in Enterprise Tax Payment,” and “Export Product Quality License Certificate,” among others. The leading products of Pegasus Group are widely used in industries such as machinery, hot-dip galvanizing, metallurgy, mines, electric power, railways, aerospace, ports, petroleum, and chemical. It is a qualified lifting machinery supplier and partner for central state-owned enterprises such as China Railway, China Water, CNNC, Guodian, and private enterprises including HBIS. The products are exported to more than 130 countries and regions, including the UAE, France, the US, and Russia. The company adheres to excellent quality, achieves continuous improvement, meets social needs, and ensures customer satisfaction. Pegasus will target the international cutting-edge technology of cranes. Innovation unlimited, reputation everlasting; let friends experience "Pegasus Lifting, Bringing You Safety and Ease," and let friends feel "Looking Across the World, Pegasus Gallops On." ◆ Contact Information ◆ Han Junqiang 13839086999 Long press and scan to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

On May 16, the Hangzhou Embodied AI Innovation and Development Conference and the unveiling ceremony of the National AI Application Pilot Base (Embodied AI) were held in Hangzhou High-tech Zone (Binjiang). Wasu Media, together with Hangzhou High-tech Sci-tech Innovation Group, Hangzhou Data Group, Unitree Robotics, Galbot, Moore Threads, Metax, Huace Film & TV, and 18 other industry leaders, signed agreements collectively to form an entire industry chain alliance covering capital, chips, hardware, and applications. Wasu Media will participate in the investment and construction of the base, jointly exploring the application of embodied AI in scenarios such as urban governance, smart cultural tourism, and the low-altitude economy.

[SMM Analysis] Copper prices have surged recently. On the surface, the current hot topics in the copper market are focused on the following areas: the widening LME-COMEX price spread, copper concentrate TCs hitting new lows again, the energy crisis in Peru, the repeated fluctuations in the pace of Grasberg's production resumptions, and the substitution effect between copper cathode and copper scrap in China. However, from a deeper perspective, all these events can be understood under a single theme: the growing global emphasis on copper resource security, with the market repricing the entire industry chain.

The Indonesian bauxite market in 2026 is being shaped by three concurrent developments that, when read together, point toward a meaningful and potentially rapid price recovery. Individually, each is significant. Together, they form a self-reinforcing mechanism that the market has not yet fully priced in.

On April 9, at the , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and SMM Trading Center Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., Zambia Development Agency (ZDA), Chalco Luoyang Copper Processing Co., Ltd., and Hetian Commerce and Logistics Group Co., Ltd., Wu Jinkai, Head of the Metals Team at Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd., delivered a presentation on the topic "Computing Power – Electricity – Copper: Repricing the 'New Infrastructure Metal' in the AI Era." 1. From "Traditional Infrastructure Metal" to "AI New Infrastructure Metal": The Shifting Role of Copper The Shifting Role of Copper: From Supporting Material to Systemic Variable • Traditional infrastructure phase: In the era of conventional real estate, manufacturing, and legacy power grids, copper was largely viewed as a supporting metal that followed demand expansion; it was important, but rarely became a core variable driving infrastructure investment narratives. • AI new infrastructure phase: AI data centers are not simply about purchasing more servers, but about rebuilding high-density load infrastructure: as GPU counts rise, they simultaneously boost demand for racks, cooling, power distribution, substations, T&D, and green electricity integration, making copper a systemic variable. • Implications of the role shift: The marginal pricing anchor for copper is gradually migrating from demand recovery in traditional infrastructure to whether computing power deployment materializes and whether capital expenditure across the power chain steps up to a new level; this means the market should no longer understand AI-driven copper demand solely through a traditional commodity framework. Why the Old Consensus Underestimated AI-Driven Copper Demand: Overly Conservative Base Assumptions • Commonality 1: In the past, mainstream research preferred to start from publicly disclosed projects/GW or annual construction volumes. The advantage was clear and verifiable metrics, but the drawback was that it easily overlooked expansions of existing parks, undisclosed projects, and spillover copper consumption extending from racks to the power grid. • Commonality 2: When the market did not believe AI deployment would materialize at scale, research naturally opted for more defensive parameters: only recognizing project pipelines, only counting the data center facilities themselves, only accounting for capital expenditure already incurred, and refusing to price in downstream supporting infrastructure. • Commonality 3: Therefore, the market's past underestimation of AI-driven copper demand was not essentially about "copper intensity being off by a few percentage points," but rather about overly conservative front-end assumptions; once GPU shipments demonstrated greater certainty, the model's starting point had to be revised upward across the board. The Starting Point of the New Consensus: Not Simply Revising Copper Intensity Upward, but Repricing the Guidance • Demand validation moving forward: Since 2026, agent applications represented by OpenClaw have gone mainstream, enabling the market to see that inference demand, token usage, and commercialization loops are migrating toward real deployment; this has caused the narrative that "AI has no demand" to lose its explanatory power. • Reassessment of supply guidance: Once demand-side momentum becomes visible, the aggressive guidance on NVIDIA shipments and TSMC's advanced packaging expansion should begin to be priced in, prompting a reassessment of previous copper demand estimates. • The real expectations gap: Therefore, the dividing line between old and new consensus lies not in 39 t/MW versus 45 t/MW, but in whether the market is willing to price in that expansion will truly materialize in racks, campuses, and the power grid; as soon as the answer shifts from disbelief to belief, copper demand will undergo a systematic reassessment. 2. How AI Data Centers Use Copper: Beyond Racks, Extending to the Power Grid US Data Center Power Consumption Trends: Power as an Inflationary Factor • The most widely cited report for AI data center estimates is the *2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report*, published in December 2024. We focus our discussion on this report. • Historical trends (2014–2023): 2014–2016: Power consumption remained stable at approximately 60 TWh per year, continuing the low-growth trend since 2010. • 2017 turning point: As server installations grew—particularly with GPU-accelerated servers for AI accounting for a significantly larger share of the data center server fleet—data center power consumption began to rebound; consumption reached approximately 76 TWh in 2018, accounting for 1.9% of total annual US electricity consumption. • 2018–2023: Growth accelerated, with power consumption reaching 176 TWh in 2023, accounting for 4.4% of total US electricity consumption, representing an 18% CAGR from 2018 to 2023. • Future scenario projections (2024–2028): 2028 projected range: Power consumption ranges from a low of 325 TWh to a high of 580 TWh. Assuming an average capacity utilization rate of 50%, this corresponds to total data center power demand of 74–132 GW, accounting for 6.7%–12.0% of projected total US electricity consumption in 2028, with a CAGR of 13%–27% expected from 2023 to 2028. • From the perspective of assumptions: Upper bound: Based on the IDC 2024b report, assuming sustained AI activity, GPU shipments continuing at H2 2024 growth rates, and manufacturers being able to meet demand; Lower bound: Based on the IDC 2023a report, assuming AI activity enthusiasm pulls back, with GPU shipment growth reverting to pre-2024 historical average levels (e.g., 70%–80% of the 2021–2023 growth rate). Currently, using the upper bound as the basis for estimation appears more reasonable. • The report's estimates are based on AI 8-GPU racks, whereas current racks are NVL72, containing 72 cards. Theoretically, power consumption should be 9 times that of AI 8-GPU racks, but actual NVL 72 rack power consumption is approximately 15 times higher, indicating severe power inflation on the cooling side. • Considering GPU upgrades and increased power consumption, we estimate electricity consumption will reach at least 800 TWH by 2028. Calculation results: US power grid copper consumption to increase by nearly 2.1 million mt compared to 2025 by 2030 • AI's boost to copper demand is primarily driven through electricity consumption. US electricity consumption in 2023 was 4,000 billion kWh. According to the aforementioned Berkeley Lab, data center electricity consumption in 2023 was 176 billion kWh, accounting for 4.4% of total US electricity consumption. Based on our revised forecast, by 2028, electricity consumption is expected to range from a low of 580 billion kWh to a high of 800 billion kWh, contributing incremental electricity consumption of 404–624 billion kWh, accounting for 10%–15.6% of incremental electricity consumption in total. • Under this scenario, we calculated the copper and aluminum demand for the US power grid. By 2030, the boost to copper and aluminum from data centers, manufacturing reshoring, and new energy is expected to increase by 2.1 million mt and 3.71 million mt respectively compared to 2025. From a product structure perspective, copper demand is primarily boosted by wires & cables and transformers, while aluminum is primarily boosted by wires & cables and substations. How AI Data Centers Use Copper: Three-Layer Pathway • Three-layer framework: Before discussing AI copper usage, it is essential to first clarify the scope: in-rack/near-rack primarily covers servers and proximity networks; out-of-rack but on-site primarily covers power distribution and cooling; further out covers substations, T&D, and green electricity connections supporting incremental loads. • Most common misconception: The market tends to equate "server BOM" with "total copper consumption of AI data centers"; however, for high-density training clusters, in-rack accounts for only a small portion, with the real bulk lying in on-site power chain and cooling. • Research requirements: All subsequent calculations must simultaneously answer three questions: whether the scope is in-rack or the entire campus, whether it is greenfield or expansion, and whether it covers only the facility itself or also incorporates the external power chain. Only then can different reports be truly comparable. 39 mt/MW Is Not "Rack BOM" but the Full Electrical System Intensity of AI Training Data Centers • Intensity meaning: The 39 mt/MW figure from S&P does not mean "39 mt of copper installed in a single rack," but rather represents the comprehensive intensity under the direct copper scope for AI training hyperscale data centers; high-redundancy designs in China can even reach 47 mt/MW. • Structural meaning: Breaking down by sub-item median values, the power chain accounts for approximately 61% of direct copper, cooling approximately 22%, and server + network only 17%; in other words, most copper is not in the GPU itself but in the systems that supply power to and dissipate heat from the GPU. • Investment meaning: This is also why we later switch from "mt/rack" back to "mt/MW": as long as power density continues to rise, power chain copper consumption will scale accordingly; even if fiber optics replace some copper cables, it is only a partial offset and does not change the overall logic. 120kW cabinet: greenfield 7.8 mt, expansion 6 mt, infill 4.25 mt •Using the NVIDIA NVL72 ~120kW cabinet as a reference, based on the greenfield new-build average, the total system copper consumption per cabinet is approximately 7.8 mt; this scope includes on-site direct usage and a rough allocation of off-site power-side consumption. •However, current mainstream AI deployments do not always start from scratch at every campus. More commonly, expansion and partial reuse of existing grid connections, main power distribution, and cooling trunk lines occur within existing campuses. Therefore, the expansion scope is better represented by 5.5–6.5 mt/cabinet, with a midpoint of approximately 6 mt. •For pure infill scenarios, where existing infrastructure is extensively reused, copper consumption per cabinet can be further reduced to 3.5–5 mt/cabinet. Core model: deriving copper demand directly from GPU count •This version of the core model no longer works backward from aggregate figures, but instead models sequentially from "GPU count → cabinet count → power → electricity consumption → copper consumption." This approach directly translates advanced packaging, cabinet power, and expansion pace into copper demand. •Baseline assumptions: NVIDIA 7 million GPUs and Google 5.5 million GPUs in 2026; GPU counts for both companies growing at +50% per year from 2027 to 2030. Cabinet assumptions are NVIDIA 72 GPUs/120kW and Google 64 GPUs per cabinet; the deployment scope uses a campus expansion midpoint of 6 mt/cabinet. •Under this framework, "how much copper per 1 million high-end AI GPUs corresponds to" becomes a repeatable and updatable paradigm, rather than an abstract macro discussion. NVIDIA: the first independent main thread •2026 starting point: under the base case, NVIDIA is projected to have approximately 7 million GPUs in 2026. Converting at 72 GPUs/120kW NVL72-equivalent cabinets, this roughly corresponds to 97,000 cabinets, 11.7 GW of IT load, and approximately 14 GW of facility load; even looking at just one company, the scale is already very substantial. •Copper consumption path: under the campus expansion scope, NVIDIA alone has a midpoint annual copper demand of approximately 580,000 mt in 2026; if deployment continues at a 50% annual growth rate from 2027 to 2030, this could rise to approximately 2.95 million mt/year by 2030 for this single company. •Research implication: the most important significance of these figures is not their precision down to the last digit, but rather that they demonstrate: as long as the market believes the guidance will be delivered, NVIDIA alone is sufficient to elevate AI-driven copper demand into a balance-sheet-level variable, rather than merely a thematic investment. Google: the second independent main thread •Not a supplementary item: in our base case, Google is not a "supplementary item" but rather the second independent main thread. Based on 5.5 million GPUs in 2026 at 64 GPUs/cabinet, this translates to approximately 86,000 cabinets, 9.2 GW of IT load, and 11 GW of facility load — a scale already not far from NVIDIA's first-year deployment. • Copper consumption path: Since we applied "per-card copper consumption equivalence" under the expanded capacity framework, Google's annual copper demand midpoint in 2026 was approximately 460,000 mt; if similarly advancing at a 50% annual growth rate, by 2030 a single company would correspond to approximately 2.32 million mt/year of copper demand. • Conclusion significance: Therefore, Google should not be viewed as a minor adjustment outside of NVIDIA; as long as hyperscaler in-house ASIC roadmaps also expand in parallel, AI-driven copper demand is not a single GPU leader narrative, but a narrative where multiple computing power routes collectively push up power capex. Two companies combined: ~5.27 million mt midpoint by 2030 at 50% annual growth rate • Combined result: After merging NVIDIA and Google, under the 2026 midpoint scenario, annual copper demand already reached approximately 1.04 million mt; if growing at 50% annually thereafter, the midpoint could reach approximately 5.27 million mt by 2030, with the low-to-high range roughly at 4.64–5.94 million mt. • Release pace: More importantly, the release pace: this is not a one-time story of "using up all the copper in the first year," but rather a front-low-back-high deployment curve; as card counts, rack counts, and MW levels rise in tandem, the slope of annual incremental copper demand will steepen progressively. • Market significance: Precisely because of this, if the market still uses the old framework of "a few hundred thousand mt" to understand AI-driven copper demand, it can easily underestimate the non-linearity in the mid-to-late stages; for a commodity like copper with a tight balance sheet, what truly matters is often not the first year, but the slope after the third year. 3. AI High-Frequency Data Continues to Deliver: Not Just a Narrative, but Reality Copper Monthly Physical Flow Tracking: China • In Feb 2026, China's apparent demand declined YoY, -10% YoY. Feb China copper cathode production was 1.09 million mt, down 100,000 mt YoY, with imports remaining at low levels. For the first 2 months, apparent demand fell 131,000 mt YoY, of which domestic demand declined 324,000 mt and external demand added 303,000 mt. Global demand for the first 2 months of 2026 was estimated to have declined 19,000 mt, with domestic demand falling significantly both YoY and MoM, while external demand support slowed down. • On fabricated product exports, auto and transformer export growth maintained high YoY increases. On a MoM basis, only transformer exports remained at elevated levels, while exports in other segments all declined MoM, with wire and cable exports declining notably MoM. Fabricated product exports fell 1,000 mt in the first 2 months, indicating weak copper fabricated product export demand. Copper Monthly Physical Flow Tracking: US • In Oct, US apparent demand was -12% YoY, with cumulative first 10 months at +22% YoY, adding 412,000 mt of new demand. Considering the solid performance of power sector demand, an estimated 200,000 mt of the 374,000 mt in new demand was actual demand growth, with cumulative hidden inventory of 212,000 mt. Combined with Oct COMEX inventory of 340,000 mt, total hidden + visible inventory in the US region was estimated at 552,000 mt. • In October, regarding US net imports of fabricated products, wires & cables, transformers, and computers were the main contributors to incremental growth, while auto net imports continued to decline. Power equipment (wires & cables + transformers) accounted for 128% of the incremental demand relative to total import demand, with autos being a significant drag. AI's boost to copper usage in power grids continued to materialize, as already reflected in high-frequency data. Wires & cables plus transformers combined added 281,000 mt, with annualized US power-related copper imports estimated at approximately 350,000 mt in 2025. • The decline in power equipment imports was likely attributable to two factors: 1) The rush to import and restock in H1 ended, with weakened urgency to front-load imports in H2; 2) Rising domestic market share in the US — after the 2025 tariffs, US domestic companies saw notable increases in sales volume, with AKTR/HUBB/POWL showing significant rises, expected to substitute for imports. Combining the above analysis, with domestic demand increase plus incremental imports, US copper demand for power grids was no less than 400,000 mt. Seven US Tech Giants Sign Self-Supply Power Commitment • Representatives of seven companies — Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, Amazon, Meta, xAI, and Oracle — signed relevant documents at the White House. US President Trump stated that many Americans were concerned that data centers would push up power demand and potentially raise electricity bills, but this document would resolve the issue. Meanwhile, the bearer of tariff costs also became clearer — the AI giants themselves. • Previously, there were two key questions about US power grid construction: utilities lacked the capability to build; and utilities lacked the willingness to build. With the signing of this document, the pathway for US power grid construction has been cleared. The seven giants have both the capability and willingness to invest in power supply construction, and self-built power plants would not affect copper demand deployment. High voltage/extra-high voltage (HV/EHV): responsible for long-distance power transmission and large-scale backbone grids; typical equipment: power transmission lines, main substations (step-up/step-down), and large switching stations. • Medium voltage (MV): responsible for campus-level power distribution, delivering electricity to each zone; typical equipment: distribution stations, ring main units/switchgear, MV cables, and distribution transformers (MV→LV). • Low voltage (LV): responsible for the last segment within server rooms, delivering electricity to loads; typical equipment: LV switchgear, busways/cables, PDUs, UPS (mostly on the LV side), and server power supplies. • Following the signing of this document, we expect demand for wires & cables to accelerate. Copper Monthly Physical Flow Tracking: Europe • In October, European apparent demand was -4% YoY. Fabricated product imports for the first 10 months were +63% YoY, with October alone surging +48% YoY. The core incremental growth came from wires & cables, while the share of auto exports increased. •In the first 10 months, new demand from European wire & cable and transformers totaled 140,000 mt, with full-year new power grid demand in Europe estimated at 160,000-180,000 mt. 4. Risk Warnings Risk Warnings •AI demand falls short of expectations •Aluminum as a substitute for copper exceeds expectations

[South Africa Initiated a Second Sunset Review Investigation of Safeguard Measures on Imported Threaded Fasteners of Iron or Steel] On March 6, 2026, the WTO Committee on Safeguards issued a safeguards notification submitted by the South African delegation. On February 27, 2026, the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) published a notice and, upon an application filed by the South African industry association South African Fasteners Manufacturers Association (SAFMA), initiated a second sunset review investigation of safeguard measures on imported threaded fasteners of iron or steel.