SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

On June 30, at the 2026 Annual Forum of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, Ma Chunsheng, Director of the Automotive Development Division of the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, delivered authoritative industry signals from the stage. The official stance clearly delineated the medium- and long-term technology breakthrough tracks, focusing on three core materials: lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes, silicon-based anodes, and solid-state electrolytes. The goal is to concentrate efforts on overcoming all-solid-state and high-specific-energy lithium batteries, using material innovation to solidify the competitive foundation of China's power battery industry.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, the cobalt industry chain overall stopped falling and stabilized. Spot refined cobalt prices rebounded slightly, boosted by policy news from the DRC, and market sentiment recovered somewhat, but actual transactions were still dominated by rigid demand stockpiling. Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable, with miners’ quotations firm but limited acceptance from downstream smelters, resulting in a significant bid-ask spread. Market transactions for cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 remained sluggish, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and restocking demand not yet significantly released. Cobalt powder prices continued to decline, as off-season pressure on cemented carbide persisted. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, while ternary cathode materials rebounded slightly but with limited transactions. LCO demand remained relatively weak.

[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, overall sentiment in the industry chain recovered, as a rebound in upstream raw material prices drove some material prices higher. Lithium carbonate, LFP, and separator segments performed strongly. Downstream production schedules stayed high, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and power batteries still providing support. However, acceptance of high prices was limited, and actual transactions were mostly based on essential needs. Cobalt salts, nickel salts, and ternary cathode precursors remained in the doldrums, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Overall, short-term prices may continue to drift higher, but attention still needs to be paid to raw material arrivals, the sustainability of restocking, and the realization of end-use demand going forward.]

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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Capacity-wise, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market stood at 43.77 GW, while the PEM electrolyzer market stood at 2.7 GW. Peric Hydrogen, a subsidiary of the 718th Research Institute of CSSC, completed factory inspection and shipment for delivery of its first hydrogen project equipment in Canada. The project has an installed capacity of 1.75 MW and adopts a containerized integrated hydrogen production system. Project-related updates: Inner Mongolia Baogangxin Energy Co., Ltd. : The hydrogen production and storage integrated demonstration project it invested in has been filed. Located in the Bayan Obo mining area in Baotou, the project has a total investment of 41.9 million yuan. The project will be equipped with one set of 1000 Nm³/h alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production unit, one set of 500 Nm³/h proton exchange membrane water electrolysis hydrogen production unit, along with gaseous hydrogen storage tanks, a 100 kg solid-state hydrogen storage unit, and a heat storage and release system. It will also be furnished with supporting utilities such as power supply, automatic control, compressed air, and nitrogen generation facilities, creating an integrated demonstration project that couples multiple hydrogen production routes with solid-state hydrogen storage. China Energy Ningxia Coal Industry Co., Ltd. : The Phase I of the Ningdong Integrated Energy Station Project of Ningxia Coal Industry has been fully completed and is in the final stage of trial operation. The project is located at the entrance of the Ningdong Coal Chemical Industrial Park and is operated by Genyuan Zhihuan Logistics Company. Phase I has completed construction of canopies, refueling islands, LNG dispensing islands, an office building, fire-fighting and monitoring control rooms, and other supporting facilities. It is equipped with oil storage tanks with a total volume of 110 m³ and LNG storage tanks of 60 m³. The maximum on-site hydrogen storage capacity is 1,593.3 kg, including two 50 m³ diesel storage tanks, two 30 m³ gasoline storage tanks, one 60 m³ LNG storage tank, and three single-hose LNG dispensing islands. Meanwhile, civil works and process reservations for three hydrogen refueling islands have been completed. Once operational, the project will provide integrated refueling of oil, gas, and hydrogen for heavy-duty trucks, engineering machinery, and official vehicles in the park, thus strengthening the energy supply guarantee capacity of the Ningdong Coal Chemical Industry Base. CIMC New Energy (Liupanshui) Technology Co., Ltd. : The steel-coke integration project of CIMC New Energy (Liupanshui), a subsidiary of CIMC Enric, has been put into operation. The project relies on the coke oven gas from Shougang Shuicheng Steel to mass-produce blue LNG and 99.999% high-purity blue hydrogen. With a total investment of 808 million yuan, the project covers an area of 248 mu and had a construction period of 12 months. Upon reaching full production, it will achieve an annual output of 140 kt of LNG and 24 million Nm³ of high-purity blue hydrogen. Currently, the company has three similar projects in operation at Angang Bayuquan and Linggang, with three more new projects in the preliminary preparation stage. Its business covers Liaoning, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Southeast Asian markets outside China. All existing operating projects have a combined annual output of 48 million Nm³ of hydrogen, 420 kt of LNG, and 80 kt of liquid ammonia. Guoneng Nanjing Electric Power Test & Research Co., Ltd. : The EPRI subsidiary has issued a bidding announcement for hydrogen fuel procurement under a national key project. This project is undertaken by Guoneng Nanjing Electric Power Test & Research, involving fuel procurement for the National Key R&D Program "10 MW-class wide-load hydrogen co-firing technology integration and boiler demonstration." The test site is located at the Hainan Ledong Power Plant area. The project has a single bidding section for the 168-hour commissioning of a 10 MW pilot-scale gas boiler. It requires that the hydrogen blending heat value ratio in natural gas be no less than 20%, and the procurement includes pure hydrogen as well as full-process services such as transportation, technical training, and quality assurance. The gas supply threshold can be met by any one of three options: 200 hours of supply, 190,000 Nm³ of hydrogen, or the testing volume verified by the bid inviter; supply ends once any condition is met. Settlement will be based on the actual hydrogen supply volume. The supply period is 161 days from the contract signing, and all supplies must be completed by December 31, 2026. The supplier shall deliver to the Ledong site within 30 hours upon receiving the delivery notice. This tender only accepts bids from independent legal entities and agents, and does not accept any consortium. Hexi (Xinjiang) New Energy Co., Ltd. : The first phase of the 20 kt/year solar dish photothermal water splitting hydrogen production project at Sinopec Zhundong No.6 Station by Hexi Xinjiang New Energy has initiated its second public notice. The project is sited on the northwest side of Sinopec Zhundong Sixth Station in the Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone, Changji, Xinjiang, covering an area of 50 mu. It will build an integrated dish photothermal RSOC water splitting hydrogen production station equipped with complete facilities for concentrating light, thermal storage, power generation, hydrogen production reaction, hydrogen purification, transmission and distribution, intelligent control, and power supply and distribution. The first phase can produce 2 mt of green hydrogen and 16 mt of green oxygen daily, with an annual output of 660 mt of green hydrogen and 5,280 mt of green oxygen, leveraging new photothermal hydrogen production technology to expand local green hydrogen production pathways. Shanxi Yaxin New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The additional hydrogen pipeline laying project for methanol has obtained record-filing. The total investment is 2 million yuan. The pipeline starts from the Shanxi Yaxin New Energy plant area, runs along the park road, and is laid to the Lu’an Taihua plant area. Relying on the existing pipe gallery, a 1.8 km backup hydrogen transmission pipeline is newly built, which can supply up to 144 million Nm³ of hydrogen annually. The project is planned to commence in June 2026 and be completed in August, and construction may begin only after all approvals for planning, environmental protection, and safety are obtained. Sichuan Yuyan New Materials Co., Ltd. : The supporting 8,500 Nm³/h natural gas-based hydrogen production unit for Sichuan Yuyan’s 300 kt/year hydrogen peroxide project has completed full-process commissioning and successfully produced qualified hydrogen. The unit has officially entered the trial production stage, providing assurance for the stable full-load operation of the main hydrogen peroxide facility. Three Gorges Bazhou Ruoqiang Energy Co., Ltd.: The tender is now open for the hydrogen production system equipment under the provisional price of the EPC contract for the Three Gorges Ruoqiang 6×660 MW coal-fired power project. The project is located in Ruoqiang County, Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, supporting the planned Ruoqiang–Sichuan ultra-high voltage DC transmission project. It is planned to install six 660 MW ultra-supercritical coal-fired generating units, along with supporting environmental protection facilities. This procurement covers the plant-wide common hydrogen production equipment, including two sets of 10 Nm³/h proton exchange membrane water electrolysis hydrogen production main units and complete supporting equipment such as electric controls, hydrogen storage, pipelines, and spare parts. The equipment is expected to be delivered on truck at the Ruoqiang project site by August 2027, with the actual delivery time subject to the bid inviter’s notice. This tender explicitly does not accept consortium bids. China United Energy Group: The Jordanian Cabinet officially approved the signing of a land use agreement with China United Energy Group to jointly conduct a feasibility study for a local green hydrogen production project. This cooperation aligns with Jordan's clean energy development strategy, aiming to attract high-quality investment in green hydrogen and low-carbon fuels. Once implemented, the project will help Jordan build a regional hub for green industry and clean fuels, boost the development of the upstream and downstream green ammonia industrial chain, and expand export channels for low-carbon products to markets outside China. Shanghai International Port Group Energy Co., Ltd. : SIPG Energy's methanol bunkering vessel, "Haigang Zhiyuan," conducted a bunkering operation for Hanwha Shipping's "HMM LEAF" at anchorage, supplying 3,000 mt of domestically produced biomass green methanol. This successfully completed Shanghai Port's first anchorage green methanol bunkering and set a new record for the largest single anchorage green methanol bunkering operation in China. Following this operation, Shanghai Port's green methanol bunkering service coverage has been expanded to encompass the entire port area, with service waters extended from Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao Port Area, and Changxing Island Shipyard to anchorage grounds, enabling flexible, customized green fuel bunkering solutions for global shipping enterprises. State Energy Group Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd.: The first phase of the Cangzhou "Green Port, Hydrogen City" green ammonia project has been successfully mechanically completed, officially entering the integrated commissioning and feed trial operation stage. This project is Hebei Province's first 10kt-level green ammonia project. The first phase is equipped with a 50,000 mt/yr synthetic ammonia unit, relying on local wind and solar power green electricity and employing alkaline water electrolysis for hydrogen production, cryogenic nitrogen generation, and a multi-steady-state flexible synthesis process to produce green ammonia. Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd.: The results were announced for potential suppliers in the procurement project for a containerized integrated hydrogen production system for the R&D Center. This procurement did not accept consortium bids. The first-ranked candidate is Beijing Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid of 463,980 yuan; the second-ranked candidate is Xianhu Technology Co., Ltd., with a bid of 485,000 yuan; the third-ranked candidate is Shandong Saikesaisi Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd., with a bid of 598,000 yuan. The procurer is purchasing this equipment for internal R&D work. Policy Review 1. The Ministry of Transport, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), and eight other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy Trucks," setting multiple targets and regulating the construction of energy replenishment infrastructure. The plan proposes that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks should reach 40%, with ownership exceeding 1.6 million units and accounting for approximately 20% of total heavy truck ownership. The electrification rate for short-distance transport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Fenwei Plain should exceed 80%, and the freight volume share of new energy heavy trucks on expressways should reach 18%. The national plan is to deploy approximately 3,000 battery charging and swapping stations for heavy trucks, build zero-carbon freight corridors along the expressway network, and simultaneously support these with hydrogen refueling and green fuel bunkering facilities. The document specifies that highway renovation projects must synchronously plan and construct supporting clean energy facilities such as charging and battery swapping stations, hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure, and energy storage systems. Parking areas for new energy heavy trucks for charging and swapping must maintain safe distances from densely populated service areas and oil and gas stations, and facility construction must strictly adhere to mandatory national standards. The plan proposes to build a comprehensive support system encompassing infrastructure, equipment, services, standards, and policies, establishing a multi-departmental collaborative linkage and promotion mechanism. 2. The PipeChina Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transportation Technology Exchange Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting unveiled the technical plan and complete set of standards for hydrogen pipeline transmission engineering, establishing a full-chain standardized system for hydrogen storage, transportation, and delivery, filling the gap in standards for complete sets of technologies for long-distance, large-scale hydrogen pipeline transmission in China, achieving a breakthrough from single-point technological advancements to systematic application. The complete technologies cover core engineering needs such as new hydrogen pipelines and retrofitting natural gas pipelines for hydrogen blending, establishing the first hydrogen pipeline transmission technical framework suitable for six sub-scenarios within two main application categories. The supporting standards cover the entire process including pipe materials, design, construction, and safety operations and maintenance, providing technical support for the demonstration and large-scale promotion of hydrogen pipeline transmission. 3. The National Energy Administration released the "Guidelines for the Classification and Grading of Data in the Energy Industry (2026 Edition)." The document indicates that these guidelines are applicable to the classification and grading of non-sensitive data within the energy industry in the People's Republic of China. Dimensions for energy industry data classification include, but are not limited to, energy type and energy activity. By energy type, the first-level classification of energy industry data includes: coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, electricity, hydrogen energy, etc. By energy activity, the second-level classification of energy industry data includes: planning, design, construction, production, storage and transportation, consumption, scientific research, etc. Energy industry data processors may conduct third-level and fourth-level classifications based on data content and characteristics. Company Updates Hua Shang Xia Geng Hydrogen Technology (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. : The purchase contract for a 600 Nm³ skid-mounted hydrogen production equipment unit in Italy, led by Huashang International and executed by Huashang Xiamen Hydrogen, has officially come into effect. Following the export of the same model of hydrogen production equipment to Indonesia last year, the enterprise has successfully achieved a key breakthrough in the European market. This supply involves a complete containerized hydrogen production system, encompassing a full suite of equipment including an alkaline electrolyzer, power supply, purification system, cooling system, and automatic control system. The equipment will obtain the EU "4+1" CE certification, making it the first domestically produced alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production equipment to be exported to the EU with this certification. Sungrow Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. : Successfully won the bid for the 45MW hydrogen production unit project at the Daye Linkong Hydrogen Energy Industrial Base, deploying a 2000 Nm³/h electrolyzer to support the green transformation of this resource-dependent city. This bid win includes five sets of 1000 Nm³/h and two sets of 2000 Nm³/h alkaline hydrogen production systems. The 2000 Nm³/h electrolyzer has undergone two years of iteration and over 4,000 hours of field testing, demonstrating stable and highly efficient performance. The excellent operational performance and highly recognized equipment and O&M services provided by Sungrow Hydrogen for the Daye Jiangqiao hydrogen production project previously laid the foundation for this renewed cooperation. Zhejiang Yuancheng New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group Co., Ltd. : Jointly built with China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Shanghai's first integrated methanol refueling station—the Jiading Xingle Methanol Refueling Station—has officially commenced operations at No. 2619 Jia'an Road, Jiading District. Dongfang Electric Corporation : The new-generation high-pressure diaphragm compressor unit, jointly developed by Xinran Group Compressor Co., Ltd. and Dongfang Electric Corporation Boiler Co., Ltd., officially began commissioning at the Xinran production site. A special acceptance expert group arrived on site to conduct comprehensive verification of equipment performance, process, and safety across all dimensions. Shanghai AnChi Technology Co., Ltd.: Officially launched the world's first four-nozzle integrated mobile hydrogen ultra-fast charging station. By entering the hydrogen-powered off-grid ultra-fast charging sector with an integrated "hydrogen-electricity-storage-charging" solution, it injects new momentum into the construction of new power systems and the green transformation of the energy structure. Shaanxi Yulin Energy Group New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Held cooperation discussions with China Hydrogen Energy Group Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Xinran Compressor. The three parties held in-depth discussions on matters concerning the construction of the Yulin Green Hydrogen Project, joint development of integrated energy stations, hydrogen energy equipment matching, coal chemical industry upgrades, high-end compressor matching, and local production site establishment, reaching a consensus on comprehensive industrial cooperation. NewAir (Hangzhou) Biotechnology Co., Ltd. : Formally signed a technology development cooperation agreement with China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Co., Ltd. The two parties will leverage their respective strengths in technological innovation and large-scale chemical engineering implementation to jointly develop a commercial process package for Flexfining™ ethanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel, opening a critical pathway for domestic alcohol-to-jet technology from laboratory scale to industrial implementation, while simultaneously planning large-scale industrial projects in and outside China. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd. : SPIC Green Energy signed a special cooperation agreement with the Second Research Institute of CAAC in Chengdu, marking the entry of their collaboration into a new phase of implementation. Next, the two parties will conduct in-depth cooperation focused on technological breakthroughs, standards research, industry-research integration, and talent cultivation to overcome challenges in SAF industry development, accelerate the implementation of demonstration projects, promote low-carbon aviation development, and support national energy security and the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals. Beijing SinoHy Energy Co., Ltd.: Signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd., a globally leading EPC enterprise, to jointly pursue global green hydrogen projects. According to the agreement, SinoHy Energy will contribute its technical strengths in alkaline electrolytic stacks and core hydrogen production equipment; Hyundai Engineering & Construction will leverage its experience in large-scale global energy infrastructure projects to provide system integration and EPC delivery services. The two parties will collaborate to create integrated alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production solutions for delivery to project developers worldwide. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) submitted patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formula with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprints/Specifications 1. The team of Tong Lei and Liang Haiwei from USTC, together with Zhang Liang from Tsinghua University, proposed a Carbon Mesopore Depth Engineering (CMDE) strategy. By utilizing hollow mesoporous carbon spheres to regulate ionomer penetration depth, they addressed the inherent conflict between kinetic activity and oxygen mass transport in low-platinum fuel cells, developing a PtCo low-platinum catalyst that combines anti-poisoning properties, high mass transport, and excellent durability. Under an ultra-low platinum loading of 0.1 mgPt cm⁻², it achieved the power, activity, and durability targets stipulated by the US DOE. 2. The team of Professor Li Zhipeng from Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics field coupling model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative influence of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on cell output performance. 3. China Automotive Engineering Research Institute's National Hydrogen Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center has built a 0-400kW three-axis comprehensive vibration testing platform for hydrogen-related equipment under load and opened it for commercial use, addressing the domestic gap in high-power hydrogen-related multi-physics field coupled testing. 4. The high-specific-power closed-cathode air-cooled fuel cell stack technology developed by the team of Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng at the State Key Laboratory of Energy Catalytic Conversion, Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, has passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal organized by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively resolves the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, solving technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, dry membrane flooding, and high-power thermal management. 5. Two group standards concerning hydrogen production by water electrolysis have been officially released and implemented: the "Technical Specification for Safety of Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis" and the "Method for Calculating Economic Operation Indicators for Hydrogen Production by Water Electrolysis." 6. Petronor and H2SITE are collaborating to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, enhancing high-purity hydrogen recovery and low-carbon efficiency in refining.

SMM July 2 news: Metal markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum each fell within 0.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.72%. SHFE zinc fell 1.04%. SHFE tin rose 0.15%. SHFE nickel fell 0.41%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 0.97%, while the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.21%. Lithium carbonate most-traded futures extended gains from the previous three trading days, rising another 1.26%. Silicon metal most-traded futures fell 0.18%. Polysilicon most-traded futures rose 0.36%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.54%. HRC and rebar fell within 0.5% each, and stainless steel fell 0.92%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.28%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.96%. In overseas base metal markets, as of 11:39 am, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.31%, LME aluminum fell 0.19%, LME lead was flat at $1,866.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.2%, LME tin edged lower, and LME nickel fell 0.4%. In precious metals, as of 11:39 am, COMEX gold fell 0.16% and COMEX silver rose 0.03%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.28%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.06%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 5.12%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.82%. As of midday close, the most-traded European route container freight futures fell 2.12% to 2,561 points. As of 11:39 am on July 2, midday futures quotes for select contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: In the morning session, the trading center of the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract was higher than that of the same period on the previous trading day. Warrant cargoes continued to flow out of the market, and circulating spot supply was generally ample. Downstream only saw sporadic restocking, and with bearish sentiment spreading in the futures market, end-user purchase willingness was overall weak. Mainstream transactions were at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract... Macro Front Domestic: [The mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance System of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles" was officially released] On June 27, the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Combined Driving Assistance System of Intelligent and Connected Vehicles" (GB 47955—2026), organized, formulated and centralized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was approved and released by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Administration, and is scheduled to be officially implemented on January 1, 2027. 《Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicles—Combined Driver Assistance Systems, grounded in the needs of industry development and regulatory oversight in China, takes into account technical feasibility, product compatibility, and practical implementability, and establishes a safety indicator framework with clear requirements, comprehensive dimensions, and alignment with national conditions. First, it fully considers different product forms and technical routes, proposing applicable safety requirements for three types of combined driver assistance system products: basic single-lane, basic multi-lane, and navigation driver assistance. Second, based on China’s road traffic characteristics, it sets out baseline requirements to ensure the safe operation of combined driver assistance systems across dimensions such as functional requirements, data recording, and vehicle manufacturer safety assurance. Third, recognizing the core positioning of these systems as "assistance" in driving, it puts forward requirements for user usage and operation in areas such as human-machine interaction, usage instructions, and user training, providing a foundational guarantee for proper coordination between users and systems. Fourth, in line with the practical needs of China’s industry management, it builds a multi-tiered evaluation approach encompassing field tests, road tests, and document inspections to comprehensively assess system safety capabilities. The PBOC conducted ¥288.5 billion in 7-day reverse repos today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous level. Today, ¥370.5 billion in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 101.39. Fed Chairman Warsh said Wednesday that inflation expectations and inflation risks have both declined in recent weeks, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. "In the first few weeks of this period, inflation expectations have pulled back, and inflation risks have also eased," Warsh said. "If households, the business community, or financial markets think the Fed is comfortable with inflation above 2%—well, they are likely to be disappointed: we will ensure price stability in the US." Fed Chairman Warsh sidestepped questions on whether the Fed might raise rates at its July meeting. "I hope that when we meet in four weeks, we can have a robust 'internal family debate,'" he said. "When we close the doors and sit down together, we will have a vigorous debate. But beyond that, I have no further information to share." Warsh made the remarks at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal; this was his first public appearance since his inaugural press conference at the Fed last month. Since then, investors have begun to anticipate more rate hikes from the Fed, but the market currently sees the likelihood of a first hike this month at less than 50%. According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 71.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 28.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 36.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: US manufacturing expanded for a sixth consecutive month in June, with the war-driven surge in input costs easing. Printing, electrical equipment, and textiles led the gains, while paper products, furniture, and wood products contracted. Market attention has now shifted to Thursday's US employment report. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management, noted that with Warsh prioritizing inflation, the June non-farm payrolls data is "unlikely to change rate expectations on its own." He added that hiring related to the FIFA World Cup is expected to distort the data. (Wall Street Insights) Data front: Today will see the release of the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 27, US June average hourly earnings year-over-year, US June average hourly earnings month-over-month, US May factory orders month-over-month, Switzerland June CPI month-over-month, eurozone May unemployment rate, among other data. Additionally, watch for: the Ministry of Commerce's regular press conference for the first week of July, and 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly’s participation in a conference on the Spanish economy. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (July 3), the US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier on July 2 (Thursday) at 20:30 Beijing time. US stock markets will be closed on July 3 (Friday). Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4. Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on July 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets extended their decline from the previous two trading sessions, with WTI down 1.4% and Brent down 1.24%. International crude oil prices pulled back due to progress in Middle East peace talks. (Wall Street Insights) As supply through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded, OCBC Group Research lowered its quarterly crude oil forecasts through the end of Q2 2027. Two OCBC strategists noted in a research report: "With the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, shipping and crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded."They also said, "Market expectations that crude oil supply would return to normal quickly pushed oil prices back to pre-conflict levels, rekindling oversupply rhetoric." OCBC cut its Brent crude price forecast for Q3 2026 from $85 to $75 per barrel, Q4 2026 from $80 to $75, Q1 2027 from $75 to $73, and Q2 2027 from $75 to $71. (Jin10 Data APP) Increasing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz prompted UBS to cut its 2026-2027 oil price forecast. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $84 per barrel this year, down $9 from its previous forecast. The bank also cut its 2027 oil price forecast from $85 to $75 per barrel. UBS said, "The decline in geopolitical risk and the rapid rebound in supply led to a larger price drop than we had expected." The bank expects oil prices to rebound slightly to $80 per barrel in H2 this year as floating storage in the Gulf region normalizes and demand recovers. UBS also believes risk premiums will be higher because the path to normalization may remain bumpy. UBS said, "The need to replenish inventories should continue to support prices through the end of 2027, but the required magnitude of stock rebuilding is smaller than the 1 billion barrels we previously expected." (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The reporter learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that today, July 2, three mandatory national standards in the PV sector were officially approved and released. These standards set rigid constraints on energy consumption and energy efficiency across the entire chain of polysilicon, wafers, PV modules, and inverters, using standardized measures to refine the green management and control system of the PV industry chain, and providing institutional support for the high-quality development of the new energy industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation, released three mandatory national standards on PV energy consumption and efficiency: "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Monocrystalline Silicon", "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon PV Modules and Inverters", and "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium". These standards cover key segments of the PV industry chain including polysilicon, wafers, modules, and inverters, set energy consumption and energy efficiency indicators for relevant products by grade, and strictly control high-energy-consumption and low-efficiency capacity in each link; for modules, they innovatively incorporate the evaluation indicator of coupled environmental stress-induced degradation rate.

SMM July 1: Metals market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead declining—LME lead fell 1.08%, LME nickel fell 0.55%, and SHFE lead fell 0.47%. The rest of the metals all gained. LME tin and SHFE tin surged over 2%, with LME tin up 2.58% and SHFE tin up 2.25%. LME zinc and SHFE zinc rose over 1%, with LME zinc up 1.85% and SHFE zinc up 1.4%. Gains in the remaining metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.25%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.42%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, most prices rose except for stainless steel. Stainless steel gained 0.92%, while iron ore fell 0.27%. Declines in other metals were modest. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.08% and coke fell 0.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.42%, at one point dipping to a low of $3,955.4/oz, while COMEX silver rose 0.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.8% and SHFE silver surged 3.43%. As of 6:44 am July 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [NBS: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China’s economic sentiment rebounds somewhat] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the June manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprise PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 ppt from May but still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprise PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 ppts, above the threshold; small enterprise PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 ppt, below the threshold. Among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, commented on China’s June 2026 PMIs. The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.2%, up 0.1 ppt from May, indicating a modest rebound in non-manufacturing sentiment. The services sector expanded at a faster pace. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 ppt, showing some improvement. By sector, business activity indexes for telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all in the high-expansion territory above 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume. Air transport and real estate continued to operate below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index stood at 56.0%, up 0.6 ppt from May, reflecting improved corporate expectations for market development. Construction activity showed some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 ppt, edging up slightly. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, remaining in expansion. [MIIT and eight other departments: Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other departments issued a notice on the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Industrial Internet.” It proposes to enhance computing support. Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities. Explore building an industrial computing network system, strengthen the dynamic coordination of multi-level computing capabilities across end, edge, and cloud, and meet the computing, network, storage, and usage needs of various entities’ business development. Rely on the integrated computing network to strengthen computing interconnectivity, improve the matching supply of intelligent and edge computing power, enhance the ability to process and deeply refine massive heterogeneous data at high speed, and deeply empower scenarios such as industrial large-model training and real-time interaction in the industrial metaverse. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 101.17. Federal funds rate futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed could start raising rates as soon as July. This previously unthinkable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at the July policy meeting remains low, with interest-rate swaps currently pricing in about 9 basis points of tightening, implying roughly a 36% chance of a 25bp hike. Nonetheless, that probability has risen markedly; before new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shifted his focus to price stability, the odds were nearly zero. (From Wallstreetcn app) On the data front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings edged up in May, but the pace of new hires pulled back. Data showed that at the end of May, total job openings across the US rose by 9,000 from the prior month to 7.594 million, above economists’ forecast of 7.3 million. The April figure was revised down from an initially reported 7.618 million to 7.585 million. The increase in openings was mainly concentrated in professional and business services and very small businesses with fewer than ten employees. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Hiring declined by 45,000 to 5.17 million, with the hiring rate stable at 3.3%. US job gains have accelerated sharply for three straight months, and the market had been optimistic that the labor market was returning to a recovery path after a soft patch in 2025. However, the strong payroll gains have been largely driven by a simultaneous decline in both layoffs and quits, rather than by a pickup in hiring by businesses. (Jin10 Data) HSBC said that a sharp rally in the US dollar could be one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of this year. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually in the first half of 2027, and warned that if the Fed signals a stronger readiness to tighten policy than the market expects, and if geopolitical tensions flare up again, the dollar could see an “explosive” rally. Risks have increased since the Fed’s June meeting, when policymakers focused on inflation and offered little forward guidance. That shifted market attention back to interest-rate differentials and helped the dollar strengthen against major currencies over the past two weeks. “A stronger dollar will certainly cause pain, but we think the ‘pain trade’ in FX will be an explosive dollar rally,” analysts including Paul Mackel wrote in a June 29 note. (Bloomberg) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 33.7%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.1%, a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 50.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike at 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro side: Today will see the release of China’s June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, final reading of US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending m/m, UK June Nationwide house price index m/m, final UK June manufacturing PMI, Switzerland May real retail sales y/y, final French June manufacturing PMI, final German June manufacturing PMI, final Eurozone June manufacturing PMI, preliminary Eurozone June CPI y/y, and preliminary Eurozone June CPI m/m. In addition, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will speak at the “Policy Panel” event at the ECB Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Tech Summit will be held July 1-4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is noteworthy that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchange is closed for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Southbound and Northbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada is closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices fell in both markets, with US oil down 1.02% and Brent down 0.65%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its monthly data released Tuesday that US crude oil production climbed to a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, driven by the Iran war boosting oil prices and producers ramping up output. EIA data showed that output increased by 216,000 bpd in April, with New Mexico hitting a record 2.37 million bpd. Texas crude production edged up 36,000 bpd to 5.83 million bpd, the highest since last November. Texas and New Mexico share the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of total US crude output. The third-largest producing state, North Dakota, saw output rise to 1.13 million bpd, also the highest since last November. (From Wallstreetcn app) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels, after a 765,000-barrel draw the prior week. API Cushing crude inventories rose by 503,000 barrels, compared with a draw of 982,000 barrels the previous week. API gasoline inventories fell by 2.106 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.238 million barrels the prior week), while distillate inventories rose by 2.922 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.447 million barrels the prior week). (From Wallstreetcn app) Russia’s crude oil exports are surging to record highs, causing a buildup of crude at sea, while the price of crude, Moscow’s main source of revenue, is falling sharply. According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s average daily seaborne crude exports rose to 4.13 million barrels in the four weeks through June 28. That is the highest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022; before the conflict, a large portion of Russian oil was sent to Western Europe via pipelines. The export surge means Russian oil inventories at sea have increased by about a third since mid-April lows, and cargoes are starting to accumulate off the coast of Egypt and Singapore, suggesting Moscow may face increasing difficulty in placing all its volumes. The rise in exports comes as Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, which may force crude that cannot be processed domestically to be exported. (Jin10 Data APP)

On June 29, the China Automotive Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance jointly issued the "Initiative on Regulating Supplier Payment Terms for Power and Energy Storage Battery Enterprises." The initiative focuses on procurement transactions between power and energy storage battery and system integrator companies and their suppliers, offering specific recommendations on order confirmation and modification, delivery and acceptance, payment and settlement, and contract duration. On the same day, several companies including CATL, FinDreams Battery, Sunwoda Power, EVE Energy, and Hyperstrong sequentially announced their support. An official from the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that this initiative is an important step in implementing the "Regulation on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises." It specifies requirements for order confirmation and modification, delivery and acceptance, and payment and settlement. For example, it stipulates that the acceptance period for materials and components should generally not exceed 7 working days; the payment cycle for SME suppliers should generally begin on the date of delivery or acceptance; it recommends that all payments to SMEs be made in cash; and it encourages both supply and demand parties to establish stable cooperative relationships and to sign long‑term framework agreements based on their existing cooperation.