Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes

SMM July 28 News: Metal Markets: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.26%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 0.76%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.11%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.25%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.13%, rebar fell 0.62%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.46%, and stainless steel fell 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.36%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.65%. As for base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.56%, LME aluminum fell 0.39%, LME zinc fell 0.36%, LME tin fell 1.57%, and LME nickel fell 0.26%. LME lead rose 0.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.68% and COMEX silver fell 1.96%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.59%. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain sluggish in Q3 despite the fact that historically Q3 is a seasonal stockpiling peak. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which curb fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed. Many risks remain in the short term that could cause gold prices to decline again, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. (Jinshi Data APP) Also, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.12%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.08%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.35% to 2,760 points. As of 11:41 on July 28, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed on oil prices, while rate-hike concerns eased, but the market remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision, with silver prices retreating after rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity... Macro Front Domestic: [Hangzhou: Plan to moderately deploy new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks ahead of demand] The “Hangzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Promotion Regulation (Draft)” is open for public comment. It proposes that the municipal people’s government should make overall plans for the construction of an artificial intelligence infrastructure system, appropriately lay out new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, new-generation communication networks, and trusted data spaces in advance, establish and improve market-oriented operational mechanisms, and ensure efficient utilization, safety, and controllability of all types of facilities; the municipal people’s government should coordinate the layout of intelligent computing power facilities and energy resource allocation. Build a new-type energy system for a megacity, strengthen synergy among power supply, power grid, load, and energy storage, promote urban power supply reliability to meet the usage standards of intelligent computing power facilities, and ensure safe, stable, and sufficient electricity supply for computing power; support the construction and operation of a city computing power resource dispatch service platform through market-based mechanisms, providing the public with convenient services such as computing power resource information release, supply-demand matching, and transaction settlement. Encourage various computing power resources to access the platform to achieve efficient allocation of computing power resources. Support computing power operation enterprises in participating in the construction of the national integrated computing power network. The PBOC conducted 305.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.46. US President Trump said on Monday, when discussing Fed issues, that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he must deal with committee issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and that the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10 Data APP) “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Fed Chairman Warsh had to convince the most rate-cut-enthusiastic president in modern history to appoint him to the Fed chairmanship. Now he faces a new challenge: persuading his 18 colleagues to abandon the professional mindset that he believes led them astray. The first test will come on Wednesday. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Frank Fret, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote in a report that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh’s repeated pledge to restore price stability and signal that policymakers no longer rely on telegraphing every policy move in advance. “The market may again have underestimated the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate increase this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while highlighting the Fed’s independence. ((Jin10 Data APP) HSBC economist Paul Mackel said in a report that unless the US Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the US dollar. Fed Chairman Warsh has acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He said if the meeting this week merely aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to surge significantly because the market is already positioned for rate hikes later this year. “However, we also recognize some are entertaining the idea of a surprise Fed hike, akin to what it did suddenly in February 1994.” He said that if the market welcomes it as a prudential move, this would boost the dollar.(Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup traders are betting the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term interest rate trading, the position they hold will profit if the Fed holds rates steady. Singal said, “We still stick to our expectation that rates will remain unchanged.” He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data indicate that the Fed does not need to raise rates at this time.(Jin10 Data APP) Lloyd Chan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, noted in a research report that the US dollar may be supported in the near term by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent tensions in the Middle East. He also said the Fed decision this week is likely to be a key catalyst for markets. Chan pointed out: “Though no policy change is expected, the market’s focus will be firmly locked on the Fed’s guidance – namely, whether policymakers still lean towards tightening.” The analyst added: “US tariff issues are returning to the spotlight as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff regime after the US Supreme Court overturned Donald Trump’s proposed global reciprocal tariff measures earlier this year.”(Jin10 Data APP) Regarding other currencies: RBA Governor Bullock: It is still uncertain whether the RBA’s rate hikes have been sufficient to bring CPI back to the target range. The RBA Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. The full effects of past rate hikes will take time to manifest. The RBA is committed to preventing cost pressures from becoming entrenched inflation. Core CPI is largely tracking in line with expectations but remains too high. Indicators suggest a mild pace of consumption growth in Q2. A further slowdown in demand growth may be necessary.(from Wall Street CN APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of the US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11, the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) YoY for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, among others. Additionally, watch out for: RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.46% and Brent down 1.37%. Geopolitically, the situation showed a phased easing. Trump stated on Monday that the US is in diplomatic negotiations with Iran to end the conflict, while warning that if talks fail, military engagement will resume. According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Oman are attempting to reach an agreement to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended their decline on this news. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

July 23, 2026 Gold reached its highest level in two weeks on Wednesday at roughly $4,130 an ounce , lifted by a fresh round of escalation between the United States and Iran. By Thursday morning, however, much of that gain was already unwinding. The reason is a mechanism many investors are currently underestimating: this war affects gold not only through fear, but above all through oil. Two steps forward, one step back After weeks of grinding sideways action around the $4,000 mark, the gold market finally saw some movement on Wednesday. Bargain hunters stepped in at depressed levels while the widening Middle East crisis lifted risk aversion. The result was the highest print in two weeks, with quotes between roughly $4,130 and $4,137. This is not euphoria, though. On Thursday morning the most actively traded gold future (August) gave back around $24 to trade near $4,127, surrendering part of the previous session's advance. For context: gold remains roughly 25 percent below its January 2026 all-time high of $5,598. The year so far has been a story in two acts for gold investors — a spectacular opening and a drawn-out correction. The trigger: Hormuz and the Red Sea The geopolitical picture has deteriorated markedly since the start of July. Overnight into Thursday, the US military flew a multi-hour wave of strikes against targets inside Iran, according to regional command Centcom. In parallel, Iran-backed Houthi forces said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. That puts two of the world's most important energy transit routes in play simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz, which in normal times carries around one-fifth of globally traded oil, and the Red Sea passage. Three tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for Asia had already changed course on Tuesday. When shipowners avoid routes, voyages lengthen and insurance premiums climb — and the risk premium embedded in the oil price rises with them. That is precisely what has happened. Brent for September delivery pushed above $96 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since early June, last trading near $95.78 — up almost two percent on the day. The pace is what stands out: in early July, Brent was still around $70. The April high of roughly $126 remains some distance away, but the direction of travel is unambiguous. The oil paradox: why war is no free ride for gold This is the crux of the current setup, and it runs against many investors' instincts. The intuitive equation is: war equals uncertainty equals higher gold. That holds — but only for the first step. An oil price that gains around 35 percent in three weeks is inflationary. US inflation already hit 4.2 percent in June, the highest reading in three years. Rising inflation shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve, and it shifts them in the direction that hurts gold. Instead of debating rate cuts, the market is now debating hikes. In a Reuters poll, a majority expects the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end, yet the same respondents described the probability of a hike this year as high. For a non-yielding asset like gold, that is bad news. Higher real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. The geopolitical tailwind and the monetary headwind therefore spring from the same source — the war in the Gulf. Anyone reading gold purely as a crisis barometer right now will struggle to make sense of the price action. Next week the Fed decides The coming days bring the test. US purchasing managers' indices are due Friday, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting next week. The tone accompanying the decision matters more than the decision itself: if the Fed signals willingness to treat the oil effect as transitory, gold has room to run. If it emphasises its resolve on inflation, pressure on the metal is likely to build. Technically, the support zone between roughly $3,900 and $4,100 remains the decisive area. As long as it holds, the current pullback can be read as a consolidation within an intact longer-term uptrend. A sustained break below would materially darken the picture. On the upside, the $4,300 to $4,400 region is the first meaningful hurdle. What it means for mining and exploration equities For the resource sector, the oil shock carries a second dimension that is easy to overlook: diesel is one of the largest single cost items in open-pit mining. Haul fleets, explosives manufacturing, ore processing and — in many jurisdictions — on-site power generation are all directly exposed to the oil price. A Brent move from $70 to above $95 therefore feeds through to producers' all-in sustaining costs with a lag, compressing margins whenever the gold price fails to keep pace. The implication for investors: cost lines deserve particular scrutiny in the current reporting season. Producers with access to cheap grid power or their own generation capacity are structurally better positioned in this environment than those dependent on diesel gensets. Exploration companies without production are less exposed to this effect — their cost base is driven primarily by drilling rates and rig availability. For them, the decisive variable remains the market's appetite to fund, and that continues to hinge above all on the gold price itself and on general risk appetite. Conclusion The two-week high shows that safe-haven demand for gold is very much alive. But the Iran war simultaneously supplies the metal with its own adversary, by way of oil prices, inflation and rate expectations. The resolution of that tension is more likely to come out of Washington than Tehran — at next week's Fed meeting. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-hits-two-week-high-why-the-iran-war-is-holding-bullion-back-rather-than-driving-it

July 17, 2026 Gold is trading at $3,992.55 and silver at $55.44 — both at or near multi-month lows. The cause is an oil shock that most investors are filing under the wrong heading. It is not hitting precious metals once, but twice: through interest rate expectations, and through the production costs of the mines. The starting point: 29% below the high Gold tested the $4,000 mark on Thursday, leaving it roughly 29% below the all-time high of $5,595.47 set on 29 January 2026 — the weakest level since November 2025. Silver has fared worse. At $55.44, the white metal sits some 54% below its January peak of around $121. The gold-silver ratio has consequently climbed to 72.0, up from about 69.6 in the middle of the week. Silver, in other words, continues to lose ground in relative terms — a classic sign that what is being traded here is not a precious metals thesis but an interest rate thesis. The first hit: oil drives rate expectations The trigger does not sit in the bullion market. It sits in the Strait of Hormuz. Escalation between the United States and Iran has driven oil prices higher and reinforced concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Brent stood at $85.92 on 14 July, its highest since 15 June, after gaining 9.6% the previous day. The transit figures speak for themselves: only 57 crossings were recorded from Friday through Sunday — a drop of more than 50% against the prior week. On 15 July, Washington additionally reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports. For the Federal Reserve, this is a problem. Softer-than-expected US inflation data has largely ruled out a July rate increase, yet Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. The market remains split: traders currently price roughly a 51% probability of a hike in September — down from about 60% at the start of July. The June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting at least one hike before year-end, eight projecting no change, and one projecting a cut. Warsh submitted no dot of his own. Higher energy prices strengthen the expectation that the Fed will need to keep policy tighter for longer, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding gold. That is the first hit. What makes it notable: an oil-driven inflation impulse arriving while the central bank is boxed in is precisely the textbook stagflationary setup investors buy gold to hedge. For now, the rate channel is beating the crisis channel. The second hit: oil is eating into mining margins This is where it becomes uncomfortable for gold equity investors — and this is the point most analyses skip. On paper, producers are in excellent shape. With gold averaging $4,700 an ounce and AISC below $2,000, sector margins in 2026 sit at historically exceptional levels and are generating record cash flows. Share prices do not reflect that. GDX was trading at $74.82 on 14 July, against a 52-week range of $50.45 to $117.18. Year-to-date, the junior index GDXJ is down 8.61% and GDX down 8.2%. Over one month, the pullback hit the juniors harder at -4.79% versus -3.78% for the seniors. The reason: the market is still grappling with the reality of higher energy costs, which will continue to overshadow gold miners' record-high margins in 2026. Diesel for the fleet, power for the mill, freight for consumables — energy is one of the largest single line items in an AISC calculation. The same oil price that is pressuring gold through rate expectations is therefore pressuring producers a second time through the cost side. For explorers and developers without cash flow, a third effect follows: rising capital costs make financings more expensive at precisely the moment share prices are on the floor. What is holding the floor: the central banks Set against this picture is a remarkably stable pillar of demand. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 — more than in the previous quarter and above the five-year average. Poland added 14 tonnes in April alone (45 tonnes year-to-date), the People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 18 consecutive months, and the Czech National Bank added 2 tonnes. The decisive detail: this buying continued while gold sat 28% below its January peak. The official sector is not buying the trend. It is buying the allocation. The World Gold Council's survey of 76 central banks, published on 16 June, reinforces the point: 89% expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next twelve months, a record 45% plan to add to their own reserves (up from 43% in 2025), and 74% expect the US dollar's share of global reserves to decline over the next five years. Standard Chartered supplies the counterweight. In a note dated 24 June, analyst Suki Cooper put roughly 298 tonnes of ETF gold below its holders' average cost basis at prices around $4,000 — up from 270 tonnes when gold was still above $4,250. That is some $38 billion held by investors whose rational response to any recovery is to exit near breakeven. Those positions are not support. They are a ceiling. Assessment and outlook The forecasting landscape is split accordingly. Morgan Stanley concedes that its $5,200 target for the second half now depends increasingly on a revival in ETF demand; Goldman Sachs has already cut both its December forecast and its ETF demand projections. J.P. Morgan, by contrast, is sticking with $6,300 by year-end. HSBC in January flagged a range of $3,950 to $5,050 for 2026 — the lower bound is being tested today. OCBC, conversely, expects prices to keep falling on rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and weaker investor demand. Our reading: the decisive question for the coming weeks is not whether central banks keep buying — they do — but whether the oil price stays where it is. If Brent retreats, the rate pressure and the cost pressure unwind simultaneously, and the miners become the leveraged expression, because record margins would then be valued without the energy caveat. If oil stays elevated, the sector is likely to remain under valuation pressure even with a stable gold price. Two dates frame the question. The FOMC meets on 28 and 29 July — CME data puts the probability of rates being held at 3.50% to 3.75% in July at 66.3%, so the language on September is what matters. Late July into early August brings the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends for Q2. That report is the test of whether official-sector demand is still absorbing the ETF outflows. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-oil-price-double-hit-gold-miners

July 15, 2026 Anyone seeking to understand why rising oil prices triggered by tensions in the Gulf can actually weigh on gold prices—despite intuition suggesting the opposite—must begin with the petrodollar system. It is the invisible foundation of the global financial architecture and explains why the seemingly unrelated markets for oil, gold, and U.S. Treasury bonds are, in reality, deeply interconnected. The story begins in 1974. Following the first oil shock, the U.S. government, under Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, reached a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia. Under the arrangement, the Kingdom agreed to price its oil exclusively in U.S. dollars and reinvest its oil revenues into U.S. Treasury securities. In return, Saudi Arabia received military protection and security guarantees from the United States. The Petrodollar: The Invisible Foundation of the Financial System The other OPEC members soon adopted the same model. The consequences were revolutionary—and highly advantageous for the United States. Every country wishing to purchase oil first had to acquire U.S. dollars, creating a structural and permanent global demand for the greenback. The mechanism functions as a circular flow: oil revenues earned by the Gulf states are subsequently invested in U.S. Treasuries, supporting demand for American government debt, keeping Treasury yields lower, and strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar, in turn, makes oil more expensive for the rest of the world, reinforcing the dollar's dominant position. This system explains why the United States has been able to finance growing budget deficits at comparatively low interest rates for decades. Behind the scenes, the petrodollar mechanism created an artificial and continuous demand for U.S. government bonds. Gold: The Counterpart Without Counterparty Risk Gold occupies a unique position within this system. Unlike a U.S. Treasury bond, gold is no one's liability. A government bond represents a promise by a sovereign borrower. A currency represents a promise by a central bank. Gold, however, is no promise at all—it is a tangible asset without counterparty risk. Veteran speculator and Casey Research founder Doug Casey summarized this concept succinctly when he said that gold is not a speculative investment but rather a form of savings—and indeed the only form of savings that does not simultaneously expose the owner to another party's risk. For that reason, the price of gold is fundamentally influenced by many of the same variables that drive the bond market: inflation, real interest rates, and confidence in the monetary system. Rising real yields—that is, Treasury yields adjusted for inflation—make non-yielding gold relatively less attractive. Conversely, when real yields decline or inflation is perceived as persistent, gold systematically becomes more attractive relative to bonds. In February 2026, U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan described this relationship as asymmetric, noting that gold tends to rise more when interest rates fall than it declines when rates rise. This reflects the structural shift that has emerged in recent years as central banks have become consistent net buyers of gold. How Oil Prices Influence Gold: A Paradox At first glance, the relationship between oil and gold appears paradoxical. When oil prices rise as a result of geopolitical tensions, this initially represents an inflationary signal, which one would normally interpret as bullish for gold. Yet market reactions often move in the opposite direction. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher, prompting central banks to adopt a more restrictive monetary stance—or at least reducing expectations for future interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates strengthen the U.S. dollar, making gold more expensive for international buyers. At the same time, more U.S. dollars flow to oil-exporting countries and are subsequently recycled into U.S. Treasury securities through the petrodollar system. The short-term result is therefore often an inverse correlation: higher oil prices support the U.S. dollar while weighing on gold. The long-term effect, however, is exactly the opposite. Persistently higher energy costs generate structural inflation. They place increasing pressure on government finances and gradually erode confidence in fiat currencies, thereby strengthening gold's role as a neutral store of value. This interaction between short-term market correlations and long-term economic causality lies at the heart of the triangle connecting oil, gold, and bonds. The Interest Expense Dilemma as the Transmission Mechanism Another increasingly important transmission mechanism is the interest burden carried by the U.S. federal government. Every time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, refinancing costs on America's debt increase. With total federal debt now exceeding US$38 trillion , every one-percentage-point increase in interest rates adds several hundred billion dollars to annual interest expenses. Higher oil prices contribute to tighter monetary policy and therefore higher interest rates. At the same time, they also increase government financing costs. As deficits continue to grow, the Treasury must issue even more bonds, which in turn further increases total interest expenses—even if investor demand remains sufficient. Should demand for U.S. Treasuries weaken, yields would have to rise further to attract buyers. While this may temporarily pressure gold by increasing real interest rates, it simultaneously worsens the long-term fiscal outlook, ultimately strengthening gold's appeal. The triangle formed by oil, gold, and U.S. Treasuries is therefore not an abstract theoretical model but the operational reality of today's global financial system. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/oil-prices-gold-and-u-s-treasuries-why-these-three-markets-are-inseparably-linked

SMM Jul 16: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally declined. SHFE copper slipped 0.22%, SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.1%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin dropped 1.34%. SHFE nickel surged 2.94%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.26%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar and hot-rolled coil edged up. Stainless steel rose 1.13%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.31%, LME aluminum added 0.44%, LME lead advanced 0.68%. LME zinc rose 0.55%, LME tin climbed 0.46%. LME nickel jumped 2.47%. Precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver dipped 0.08%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold dropped 0.82%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 3.22%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.95%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 0.79% to 2,573.5 points. As of 11:43 on July 16, midday futures market snapshot: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,180 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,080 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's power and ESS battery sales up 49.1% YoY in June] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2026 power battery data, showing that in June, China's power and ESS battery sales were 196.0 GWh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Power battery sales were 133.4 GWh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 GWh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. January-June, China's cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 979.4 GWh, up 48.6% YoY. Power battery sales totaled 661.3 GWh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; ESS battery sales totaled 318.1 GWh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY. (Jin10 Data App) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 616 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 626 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo maturing today, the day's net injection stood at 616 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 100.5. During his appearance before a Senate hearing, Fed Chairman Warsh frequently expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, stating: "Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect underlying inflation conditions. The labour market looks quite good, but the inflation side is less optimistic. I am not satisfied with any inflation metric. We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to address inflation." The Fed's Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity expanded at a slight to mild pace in 11 of the 12 Fed districts, with the overall pace roughly on par with the prior period. The report noted that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and shifting to cheaper goods. Tourism rebounded, with World Cup-related traffic providing a boost for some regions. Manufacturing maintained mild growth, with orders rising in data centers, machinery, and national defense. Construction and real estate activity improved modestly, with data center construction a highlight. Drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer loan volumes rose modestly. However, agriculture was affected by lower commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most surveyed contacts expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, though significant uncertainty remains over the fuel cost outlook. Fed Governor Cooke stated on Wednesday that it is prudent to wait for inflation to slow for some time, but she is prepared to act if inflation does not slow soon. Cooke noted: "I believe we should give more time from now on to observe how inflation develops. However, looking ahead, I still see risks as primarily concentrated on the upside for inflation, driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and price pressures from the Iran war.""If we do not see signs of slowing inflation soon, I am prepared to act. I am fully committed to achieving our inflation target—that commitment is unwavering." Cook contrasted the current situation with a year ago, when inflation was well above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market appeared stable but ran the risk of both labor market and inflation slowdowns. "I note that the balance of risks has shifted markedly compared to about a year ago, and now inflation risks outweigh employment risks," she said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the odds of rates staying on hold stand at 51.2%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 44% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 4.7%. (Jin10 Data App) Other Currencies: On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced it would raise the 7-day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, with all seven monetary policy board members voting unanimously for the 25-basis-point hike. This is the first rate hike by the Bank of Korea since January 2023 and marks the start of a new tightening cycle. The move was fully within market expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all but one of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a July hike. A Korea Financial Investment Association poll of 100 fixed-income experts showed 66% forecast a rate increase this month. The rise from 2.50% to 2.75% appeared modest, but the signaling effect far outweighs the number itself. The Bank of Korea had cut rates four times since October 2024, reducing them by a cumulative 100 basis points, then held the benchmark rate steady for eight consecutive meetings. This rate hike may signal the formal end of the easing cycle. (Wall Street CN) Data: Data due today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US monthly retail sales for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories for May, the US pending home sales index for June, UK three-month GDP growth for May, UK manufacturing output for May, the UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and UK industrial production for May. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference of July. Fed Governor Cook Lisa will speak on the economic outlook. US Vice President Vance will deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. US President Trump will give a speech. 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. TSMC will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.23% and Brent down 0.52%. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts persisted, keeping oil prices moving sideways. US President Trump said oil prices would fluctuate for some time. For the week ended July 10, US EIA crude oil inventories dropped 1.692 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 2.594 million barrel decline and a prior build of 2.998 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories fell 1.533 million barrels, versus expectations for a 760,000 barrel decline and a prior drop of 1.904 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) A research report from Tianfeng Securities noted that the international crude oil market went through a "roller coaster" ride dominated by geopolitical risks in H1, with international oil prices surging to near $120/barrel before pulling back quickly. Recently, although tensions flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz, overall risks remain manageable. The core pricing logic for the crude market is shifting from "extreme geopolitical risks" to a three-way game among "geopolitical tail risk, political intervention, and fundamental equilibrium." In H2, oil prices are likely to see wild swings with resistance on the upside and support on the downside, with a general trend of "strength first, then weakness." The Brent price center is expected to trade within the $70/bbl–$75/bbl range. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Published: Jul 14, 2026 - 3:39 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market may be consolidating around $4,000 an ounce, but one market strategist believes investors should focus less on short-term price swings and more on gold's evolving role in the global financial system. In an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, Director of Investment Strategy at Abrdn, said the recent correction has done little to damage the long-term investment case for gold . Instead, he argued that the liquidation has largely removed speculative excess while leaving the market's strongest sources of demand intact. "I don't think anything has structurally hurt the gold market," Minter said. "I view the removal of length as a positive." According to Minter, the recent weakness reflects a combination of technical factors rather than a deterioration in gold's underlying fundamentals. He pointed to China's crackdown on leveraged precious metals trading, the unwinding of speculative positions and changes in retail investment flows that have weighed on prices over the past several months. While those factors have created short-term volatility, Minter said that he believes they have left the market in a healthier position. More importantly, he argues that gold occupies a much different place in the global financial system than it did only a few years ago. "Clearly gold is an even more structurally important asset than it was before," he said. That conviction is reinforced by continued central bank demand. Minter noted that China's central bank used the recent correction to add another 15 tonnes of gold to its reserves , precisely the type of buying he expected from official institutions. "That's exactly what we told people they would do,” he said. Rather than viewing the correction as a warning sign, Minter said many professional investors are treating prices around $4,000 as an opportunity to increase allocations. "They're looking at $4,000 as, 'What's the right level for me to buy more gold ?'” he said. Minter also challenged the market's increasingly hawkish interpretation of U.S. monetary policy. Although Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized price stability since taking office, Minter believes investors have become overly focused on the Fed's rhetoric. "Warsh is the boy who cried hawk," he said. "He's not a hawk." Minter argued that Warsh has intentionally adopted a tougher tone to establish anti-inflation credibility but is simultaneously rewriting the Federal Reserve's policy framework by abandoning many of the indicators investors have traditionally relied upon. He added that this shift reflects a recognition that the Fed's traditional models no longer adequately capture an economy shaped by slower population growth, changing labor dynamics and evolving inflation pressures. Despite the hawkish messaging, Minter said many advisers and institutional investors remain unconvinced that significantly tighter monetary policy is coming. He added that ETF investors, who typically respond quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations, also appear skeptical. "I don't think anyone’s buying the hawk commentary." Instead of focusing on upcoming inflation reports or the timing of the next rate move, Minter said investors should pay closer attention to the long-term trajectory of sovereign debt and global currencies. "I think the major risk in the market is the currency risk," he said. " Gold continues to be the only currency that isn't somebody else's debt." That theme, he added, is becoming increasingly difficult for governments to escape. "I don't see any governments anywhere that have a policy of we're going to pay down our country's debt and get it under control." With debt burdens expected to continue rising across the developed world and central banks continuing to diversify reserves, Minter said gold 's role has evolved beyond a traditional inflation hedge into a core monetary asset. He added that for investors willing to look beyond the current consolidation, he sees little evidence that the secular bull market has been fundamentally altered. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-13/abrdns-minter-says-bullion-now-structurally-important-asset

Published: Jul 14, 2026 - 3:56 AM (Kitco News) – Gold’s recent price decline reveals an important paradox: a stronger U.S. dollar can pressure gold prices in the short term while ultimately strengthening gold's long-term investment case, according to Paul Wong, managing partner and market strategist at Sprott Inc. In his latest in-depth monthly analysis of the gold market, Wong pointed out that spot gold lost $532.24 per ounce in June – nearly 12% – to finish the month at $4,008 for its fourth consecutive monthly loss. “June’s monthly decline was the largest since October 2008,” he noted. “For the quarter ended June 30, gold fell by $660.04, or -14.14%, the worst quarter since the second quarter of 2013, which is when the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its first rate-hiking cycle after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.” Wong said gold's latest and deepest monthly correction pushed market sentiment into extreme bearish territory. “The June selling wave in gold began with the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which sent oil prices plummeting and the U.S. dollar rising,” he said. “The second selling wave was catalyzed by the market’s hawkish interpretation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This was Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed chair.” Wong said that rising rate hike expectations drove short-end yields higher, which served to further strengthen the U.S. dollar. “Most quant traders would have interpreted a U.S. dollar breakout combined with rising short-term rates as bearish for gold.” “Investment funds sold gold in the March to May period to unwind extremely leveraged positions,” he noted. “They continued selling during June as macro readings worsened and sovereign-related entities pulled back on gold buying. It was commodity trading advisors, quant and algo-type funds that predominantly drove the waterfall declines in June as they sold further or entered modest short positions.” “The drop in gold prices appears to be much more significant than the actual moves in the U.S. dollar and federal funds rates,” he added. “It suggests that much of the potential negative effects of a higher-rate, stronger-dollar combination have already been discounted.” Wong wrote that gold’s decline in the first half of 2026 matches previous periods of extreme bearish sentiment. “In June, gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023 (see Figure 1) and has now reached extreme oversold levels,” he said. “Over the past decade, gold has tended to find support when prices fall to 90% of its 200-day moving average (Figure 1, lower panel). The drawdown has reached -26% (Figure 1, middle panel), the largest drawdown in a decade since the lows of 2016.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has increased by 2.91% year-to-date, while U.S. two-year Treasury yields have risen by 70 basis points year-to-date. “At the beginning of the year, fed funds futures were pricing in 2.3 rate cuts for the remainder of 2026,” Wong noted. “This has now shifted to 1.5 rate hikes due to the change in inflation expectations.” Wong said the emerging policy conflict at the Fed is one of the most significant narratives for markets. “One of the biggest questions facing markets today is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a hawk or a pragmatist,” he wrote. “Will he prioritize inflation control or accommodate the political and market pressures for lower interest rates? Warsh inherited an economy that remains surprisingly resilient. Labor markets are strong, growth is solid, asset prices are elevated, and inflation is still running well above the Fed’s 2% target. Simultaneously, President Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates. There is a tension between economic realities and political expectations.” Wong noted that the debate is now shifting from the expectation of rate cuts to potential rate hikes. “Warsh's inherited problem is that inflation never really died,” he said. “The economy has refused to slow, job openings remain elevated, payroll growth has surprised to the upside, consumer spending is healthy, and manufacturing and services activity continue to expand. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation8 is running around 3.3–3.4%, headline CPI inflation remains above 4%, and services inflation continues to prove difficult to tame.” “The AI buildout is also creating new inflationary pressures as memory shortages and rising component costs feed into consumer prices,” he added. “Investors are increasingly concerned that inflation may be more persistent than policymakers and markets expected.” But despite this persistent inflation, investors seem to doubt that Warsh will be genuinely hawkish on monetary policy. “Many continue to believe in the ‘Fed put,’ the idea that significant market weakness would eventually force policymakers to reverse course and lower rates,” Wong said. “Trump’s preferred outcome appears straightforward: lower rates, strong growth, rising equity markets and continued investment. The challenge is that the current economic backdrop does not clearly justify an easier policy. Warsh, therefore, finds himself caught between political demands for easier money and economic data that may argue for tighter policy. Maintaining Fed independence while navigating those pressures could prove challenging.” “The rising tension between inflation, politics and central bank credibility creates an environment that has historically supported gold,” Wong said. “Ultimately, the question is whether the Fed remains willing and able to prioritize price stability over political and market pressures. The answer to this question may prove far more important for gold than the precise path of interest rates over the next few quarters.” Wong also updated his analysis of another key market narrative: The cyclical strength of the U.S. dollar within a broader secular decline. “For years, we have maintained the view that the U.S. dollar is in long-term decline, not necessarily in exchange-rate terms, but in its purchasing power and role as the dominant store of monetary value,” he wrote. “Massive fiscal deficits, a rising debt burden, persistent monetary expansion, accelerating central bank gold purchases and increasing geopolitical fragmentation all point toward the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar-centric system.” But the reality, Wong said, is more nuanced. “Despite repeated predictions of its demise, the dollar continues to stage powerful rallies periodically,” he said. “These rallies put pressure on commodities, precious metals, emerging markets and risk assets.” “Gold may be in a secular bull market, but it has also experienced sharp corrections alongside silver, copper, oil and other hard assets,” he warned. “A weakening monetary regime doesn't prevent powerful U.S. dollar rallies.” In order to understand this seeming contradiction, investors must separate two forces that are often lumped together. “The dollar remains structurally indispensable to global financial system settlements even as its long-term role as a monetary reserve slowly erodes,” Wong said. “In other words, the dollar may be experiencing secular decline, but it can still have powerful cyclical periods of strength for many years.” And every big U.S. dollar rally creates economic and financial stress for the rest of the world. “A stronger dollar increases debt-servicing costs for foreign borrowers, tightens global liquidity, raises funding costs and often forces traders to unwind leveraged positions and carry trades,” he said. “At the same time, dollar strength encourages central banks to diversify reserves. Countries increasingly seek to reduce dependency on a financial system that can be influenced and coerced by U.S. policy objectives. China has expanded the use of alternative settlement systems such as CIPS and mBridge, while many nations are exploring regional trade arrangements and various reserve diversification strategies.” Wong believes that gold is becoming the reserve asset of a new, multipolar world. “The paradox is that the stronger the U.S. dollar becomes, the greater the incentive for countries to find alternatives to it,” he said. “The most likely outcome is not the replacement of the dollar with a single reserve currency but the gradual emergence of a more diversified or multipolar system. The U.S. dollar may remain dominant in reserves and funding while other currencies gain influence in trade, regional currencies become more important, and gold acts as a neutral reserve asset between the various competing blocs. Hence, reserve managers seem focused on diversifying rather than replacing. They still need dollars; they just want fewer of them.” “Gold occupies a unique position in this evolving framework as it is ‘outside money,’” Wong wrote. “Unlike sovereign currencies, it carries no political allegiance. Unlike government bonds, it has no counterparty risk. Unlike bank deposits, it cannot be frozen or sanctioned if held domestically.” “As geopolitical tensions rise and reserve diversification accelerates, central banks increasingly view gold as a strategic reserve asset,” he said. “Its role is gradually evolving from an inflation hedge to a monetary hedge, a reserve asset and potentially a form of monetary collateral.” Wong noted that before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the IMF calculated that gold reserves averaged 12% of total world reserves since 2000, according to IMF data. “Since the freezing or seizure of Russia’s FX reserves and growing concerns of global currency and sovereign bond debasement, gold reserves as a percentage of total world reserves have soared to a recent high of ~34%, before closing the quarter at 27%,” he said. “The long-term secular trend of gold returning as a strategic reserve asset remains intact.” Wong also explored the counterintuitive reasons why gold seems to sell off during financial and liquidity crises. “Investors often expect turmoil to boost gold prices automatically, but history suggests otherwise,” he said. “During periods of acute funding stress, market participants need dollars. To obtain those dollars, they frequently sell their most liquid assets. Gold, as one of the world's most liquid and desired reserve assets, often serves as a source of liquidity. This occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 pandemic shock, and could occur again during future dollar squeezes. This does not represent a failure of gold. It is gold performing its reserve function.” Wong pointed out that even as gold continues its secular ascent as a reserve asset, the yellow metal’s shorter-term price movements remain beholden to the U.S. dollar. “Over the long run, gold and the dollar can rise for very different reasons: gold reflecting growing demand for a neutral reserve asset and store of value, and the dollar reflecting its central role in the global funding system,” he said. “However, on a cyclical basis, gold still tends to exhibit a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As shown in Figure 3, gold's long-term trend remains firmly higher, but periods of dollar strength have frequently coincided with temporary corrections or consolidation phases in gold prices. This distinction between gold's secular monetary revaluation and its cyclical sensitivity to dollar liquidity conditions is critical for understanding short-term volatility within a longer-term bull market.” Wong cautioned that the U.S. dollar can remain strong even as long-term dollar dominance declines. “Likewise, gold could experience meaningful corrections while remaining in a secular bull market,” he said. “Periodic dollar rallies, tighter liquidity, commodity weakness and gold corrections drive the cyclical trend. The secular trend points toward reserve diversification, central bank gold purchases, alternative payment systems and a gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves.” And these two forces are not actually contradictory. “Each episode of dollar strength creates additional incentives for diversification, while each diversification effort reinforces gold's long-term monetary role,” Wong said. “Each episode may accelerate the transition toward a more diversified monetary system, one in which gold increasingly serves as the neutral reserve asset linking competing currency blocs.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-13/gold-becoming-reserve-asset-new-multipolar-world-sprotts-paul-wong

Published: Jul 11, 2026 at 08:00 The price of Gold has recovered from June's sharp sell-off, and HSBC believes the precious metal can continue to rebound even as a hawkish Federal Reserve keeps US yields elevated. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded near $4,165 on Friday, up almost 1% on the day after rebounding more than 3% since the start of July. The recovery follows an almost 12% decline in June, when prices briefly slipped below $4,000. Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 2 day chart HSBC says the stronger US Dollar and higher real interest rates remain near-term headwinds, but argues that the recent correction has already priced in much of the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift. The bank believes gold's longer-term fundamentals remain favourable despite the tougher macro backdrop, pointing to continued central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over rising government debt. HSBC argues that even if the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, structural demand should continue to underpin bullion. Image: XAU/USD 6 month historical chart The bank also expects official-sector buying to remain an important source of support, while investors are likely to rebuild positions once confidence grows that US yields have peaked. Although HSBC acknowledges further volatility is likely in the near term, it believes gold should continue to "shine through" the current hawkish environment rather than enter a prolonged bear market. Source： https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46470/2026-07-11-gold-price-forecast-2026-hsbc-says-bullion-can-shine-despite-hawkish-fed.html

July 10, 2026 Although the price of gold has regained the $4,100-per-ounce mark, analysts at Metals Focus say the precious metal is set to undergo a summer consolidation for the time being. However, this phase offers promising prospects: Later in the year, strong fundamental drivers are likely to push the price significantly higher again. Interest rate fears and a seasonal lull are dampening short-term momentum Currently, the market is primarily on edge due to U.S. monetary policy. New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the immense investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence, are keeping inflation stubbornly high. This is fueling market concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this year. For gold, which generates no current income, rising opportunity costs represent a strong headwind and cap any rapid upward breakout. Compounding this is the typical seasonal weakness. July and August are traditionally considered slow months for physical demand. The already high price level has recently caused a noticeable slowdown in jewelry consumption and general retail interest. Even though there are initial, tentative signs of recovery in key Asian markets such as China and India, the typically strong demand phase there will not begin until late summer at the earliest. The current trading range is therefore likely to persist throughout the summer months. Structural drivers remain intact: Comeback expected in the fall Despite these short-term hurdles, experts at Metals Focus do not see the broader bull market as being in any danger. A breakout from the sideways trend will become more likely once the market’s interest rate speculation cools down. There are strong indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ultimately leave key interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026. To avoid an economic slowdown or even a recession, policymakers are likely to grudgingly tolerate moderate inflation above their target, according to the analysts. As soon as the market prices in this easing of monetary policy—expected sometime during the third quarter—the gold price will once again have room to rise. The structural pillars underpinning the recent record-breaking rally remain unshaken, according to Metals Focus. Persistent geopolitical risks—particularly given Iran’s focus on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz—continue to warrant high risk premiums. Coupled with the mounting uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, the ambitious valuations in the stock markets, and concerns about the U.S. dollar, the fundamentals for the precious metal remain extremely robust. Those who weather the current summer lull will be well-positioned: In the medium term, gold remains the preferred safe haven and an essential component of portfolio diversification, the report concludes. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-a-summer-breather-before-the-next-rally