[SMM Steel] Price increases by Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, alongside Vietnam’s 27.83% anti-circumvention duty on Chinese HRC, have supported regional sentiment. Meanwhile, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act tariff adjustment reduced duties on derivative products to 25%, while core tariffs remained 50%. Combined with China’s capacity control policies and higher raw material costs linked to Middle East tensions, supply is tightening, leading market participants to expect a gradually improving steel market outlook.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, touching a high of $12,398/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $12,280/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at $12,328.5/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 294,000 lots, a decrease of 473 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,040 yuan/mt, touching a high of 96,300 yuan/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then shifted downward, hitting a low of 95,540 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 95,850 yuan/mt, down 0.74%. Trading volume reached 33,000 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, an increase of 1,074 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions.

The United States has maintained a restructured trade regime as of March 2026 that places an effective tariff rate of 41.1% on imported steel and aluminum products. This high rate reflects the combination of Section 122 global tariffs and existing Section 232 duties, which have significantly tightened domestic supply and allowed major US mills like Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs to command significant premiums. While Canada and Mexico maintain exemptions under USMCA, the broader policy has raised costs for manufacturers relying on specialized alloys not produced locally.

The United States government announced a major restructuring of Section 232 metal tariffs effective April 3, 2026, aimed at protecting domestic industry from global overcapacity. While the core 50% duty remains on primary steel imports, a new 25% duty is now levied on the full value of derivative products, closing previous loopholes used to bypass trade barriers. This policy shift directly affects European and Asian exporters who previously exported finished steel components, incentivizing the use of U.S.-melted and poured steel for domestic manufacturing.

Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest component of global central bank reserves for the first time since the mid-1990s, marking a significant shift in the structure of the international monetary system, Bloomberg reports.

US President Trump adjusted the national security tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, and copper, lowering the tariff rates on derivative products made from these metals, streamlining compliance procedures, and preventing the declared value of imports from being understated.A senior Trump administration official said that, under a proclamation signed by Trump, the US would continue to maintain a 50% import tariff on imports of metal commodities such as steel, aluminum, and copper pursuant to Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1974, but would apply this rate to the price paid by US consumers. It is currently unclear how the selling price—and the resulting tariffs—would be determined.

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[SMM Steel] The US announced adjustments to Section 232 tariffs, lowering duty rates on derivative products made from steel, aluminum and copper while maintaining the 50% tariff on base metal imports. The revised measure will apply tariffs based on prices paid by US customers, aiming to simplify compliance and reduce under-reporting of import values.

SMM Nickel News, April 3: Macro and market news: (1) Iran and Oman were drafting an agreement aimed at implementing "passage regulation" for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while emphasizing that vessel passage would not be restricted. (2) The US officially adjusted tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, and also announced a plan to impose additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals from enterprises that had not reached agreements or had not reshored to the domestic market. Spot market: On April 3, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; China mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) moved sideways, closing at 134,260 yuan/mt as of this morning session, up 0.07%. In the short term, tighter Indonesian policies and cost support built a solid bottom for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

Case Details September 18, 2025 Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement stating that, on September 10, 2025, a Vietnamese producer filed an application for an anti-circumvention investigation into HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China with a width greater than 1,880 mm and less than 2,300 mm. October 27, 2025 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3176/QD-BCT, stating that, upon application by a Vietnamese producer, it had initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in the anti-dumping case concerning HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China, to examine whether the products under investigation had been slightly modified into HRC with a width exceeding 1,880 mm and less than or equal to 2,300 mm for export to Vietnam in order to evade anti-dumping duties. The announcement took effect on the date of issuance. April 2, 2026 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade temporarily applied anti-circumvention trade remedy measures to certain hot-rolled steel plate products originating in the People’s Republic of China. The Vietnamese tariff codes of the products under investigation are 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, 7208.90.90, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90. All producers and export enterprises of the People’s Republic of China are subject to an anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 Products not subject to the temporary anti-circumvention trade remedy measures include: hot-rolled steel plate products with carbon content (by weight) > 0.30%; hot-rolled steel plate products in coil form with thickness ≥10 mm; hot-rolled steel plate products formally excluded from the scope of anti-dumping duties pursuant to Decision No. 1959/QĐ-BCT dated July 4, 2025; and steel plate products of grades BW450, BS700MCK2, AG700, and LG700T. This decision will take effect 15 days after the date of issuance. From Anti-Dumping to Anti-Circumvention: What Changed in the Export Data? Previously, Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil products applied only to products with a width not exceeding 1,880 mm, leading many Chinese exporters to evade tariffs by “slightly adjusting” product specifications into the wider 1,880-2,300 mm range. This anti-circumvention investigation and the subsequent duty decision were intended to completely close this loophole. Under the new rules, hot-rolled steel coils with widths between 1,880 mm and 2,300 mm will also be included in the taxable scope and be subject to the same anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 as the original products. Figure 1 Relationship Between Total HRC Exports to Vietnam and Exports of Products Involved in the Anti-Circumvention Case It can be seen that before the anti-dumping case was filed, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam mainly consisted of conventional-width coils below 1,880-2,300 mm. This was mainly because producing wide hot-rolled products above 2 meters requires special production lines, and the China steel mills capable of exporting such products were highly concentrated, mainly large steel enterprises such as Baowu, Angang, Bensteel Group, and WISCO, making them non-mainstream export products. After the preliminary anti-dumping ruling, the proportion of wide coils gradually increased. Another set of data shows the following . First, if the preliminary anti-dumping ruling is taken as the time period, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam from January to June of that year had already plunged 46 YoY to 2.3165 million mt, while exports of wide coils surged 815 YoY to 1.2964 million mt. This was also the main support for why the decline in the average exports of China’s HRC to Vietnam was not obvious during the period from the preliminary anti-dumping ruling to the filing of the anti-circumvention case. Second, if the filing of the anti-circumvention case is taken as the time period, as of December 2025 , China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 1.0797 million mt, with a monthly average of 529,900 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 627,000 mt, accounting for 58.08. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 226,300 mt. Furthermore, if 2026 is taken as the time period, because the market had previously expected anti-circumvention measures to be implemented in December, some export traders still conducted transactions before then, so the data for November-December 2025 cannot fully reflect the actual reduction in export volumes caused by concerns over the confirmation of anti-circumvention measures. Since the beginning of 2026, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 229,700 mt, with a monthly average of 114,800 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 131,300 mt, accounting for 57.17. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 49,200 mt, representing a decline of 3,789 YoY compared with the 2025 monthly average export volume. Impact of Anti-Circumvention Measures It is thus evident that the further implementation of anti-circumvention measures will further narrow the channel for China’s hot-rolled products to be exported to Vietnam. Last year, Vietnam was still the largest market for China’s hot-rolled exports, but the export landscape may change significantly in the future as a result of this incident. For China’s export enterprises, they should seize the remaining 15-day “breathing space” and accelerate shipments of orders on hand. In the long run, they need to proactively adjust their product mix and pay more attention to export opportunities for high-end products.