On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

On February 26, local time in the US, the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran took place in Geneva, Switzerland, mediated by Oman. The talks went through two stages with a break of several hours in between, and a new round of negotiations is expected to take place next week. On February 27, Beijing time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens in Iran to evacuate as soon as possible. The external security risks facing Iran have significantly increased, with multiple countries issuing advisories for their citizens to leave. Given the current security situation in Iran, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Iran reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran and advised those already there to strengthen safety precautions and evacuate as soon as possible. The Chinese Embassies and Consulates in Iran and its neighboring countries will provide necessary assistance for the evacuation of Chinese citizens via commercial flights or land routes. On February 27, platinum and palladium showed a significant rise, with platinum's weekly gain reaching 19.29%, making it a standout in the precious metals futures sector. Market uncertainties brought about by US tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to support the performance of precious metals. Fundamentals side, tight supply provided fundamental support for platinum. Coupled with many market participants' bullish outlook, some suppliers held prices firm, providing sentiment support for the rise in platinum and palladium. As of around 3:58 PM on February 27, the main platinum contract rose 5.34% to 623.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 19.29%; the main palladium contract rose 2.77% to 464.85 yuan/gram, with a weekly gain of 10.86%. The A-share market responded in kind, with the precious metals sector closing up 3.55% on February 27. On February 27, spot platinum was quoted at 606~610 yuan/gram, with an average price of 608 yuan/gram, up 3.67% from the previous trading day. The post-holiday rise in platinum, besides being supported by macro factors and safe-haven demand, also benefited from tight supply, positive market expectations, and some suppliers holding prices firm. Due to some suppliers' optimistic outlook, they were unwilling to sell at low prices, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. However, the supply-demand relationship has not changed significantly since before the holiday. The post-holiday rise was more driven by optimistic sentiment, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that platinum prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future developments will need to focus on changes in the demand side. Throughout February 2026, platinum and palladium prices experienced a roller-coaster ride amid macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical risks. For the whole month, macro sentiment dominated the pace of fluctuations, with supply-side events reinforcing support, and the structural feature of "strong platinum, weak palladium" continued. At present, geopolitical and macro situations strongly support precious metals: the tense Middle East situation directly boosted safe-haven demand; the downward revision of US GDP coupled with stubborn inflation highlighted gold's value preservation function; the legal battle over tariff policies weakened the US dollar's credibility, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, along with global central banks' gold buying spree, collectively provided a solid bottom for precious metal prices. Fundamentals side, the expansion elasticity of platinum and palladium supply is relatively weak. Since platinum's demand structure is less dependent on traditional fuel vehicle consumption compared to palladium, the supply-demand pattern for platinum is tighter, and it is expected to have strong upward momentum, while palladium is likely to follow platinum in a weaker trend. Risk Warning: US Economic Resilience Exceeds Expectations, US Tariff Adjustments on Platinum and Palladium Exceed Expectations, Geopolitical Risks in Major Production Areas, etc.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,957/mt and weakened slightly during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it continued to decline, probing a low of $1,950.5/mt, then rose to fluctuate near the daily moving average, ultimately closing at $1,959.5/mt, up $7.5/mt, a gain of 0.38%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt. After the session began, it dipped to a low of 16,650 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, lightly touching a high of 16,840 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,745 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.12%. On the macro front: The Trump administration is considering imposing new "national security tariffs" on six industries. According to informed sources, the tariffs under consideration may cover industries such as large-scale batteries, pig iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These tariffs would be levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The new US tariffs on the six major industries will be implemented separately from the new global 15% tariff. Regarding recent US tariff adjustment measures, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively assess the relevant US measures. Subsequently, depending on the situation, China will decide at an appropriate time to adjust its countermeasures against US-origin fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was offered at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Today was the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday. Suppliers gradually resumed work and attempted to offer prices for shipments. Some with higher prices offered at a premium of 150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract, while those eager to clear inventory directly sold at a discount, with transactions reaching a minimum discount of 100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. SHFE lead got off to a good start on its first trading day. Additionally, as it is late February, suppliers were mostly actively shipping goods, while downstream enterprises were in the initial stages of resuming work, resulting in limited inquiries. Only a few enterprises restocked based on rigid demand, and initial transactions began to emerge in the market. Inventory: On February 24, LME lead inventory was recorded at 286,325 mt, unchanged from the previous day. As of February 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM accumulated, with the total amount jumping to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: As enterprises across the lead industry chain gradually resumed work after the Chinese New Year holiday, lead consumption was temporarily absent because lead-acid battery enterprises had longer holidays than smelters. This led to accumulated lead ingot inventory at smelters after the holiday, which was transferred to social inventory. The first day after the holiday was the delivery date for the SHFE lead 2602 contract. Suppliers had gradually completed inventory transfers and shipments to delivery warehouses during the holiday, leading to an expected accumulation in social warehouse inventory, which surpassed the 60,000-mt mark. Downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work this week, and the lead ingot inventory reserved by most enterprises before the holiday could be maintained until around the Lantern Festival. In the short term, social lead ingot inventory will remain high. Follow-up attention is still needed on the recovery of lead consumption and the pace of secondary refined lead supply restoration. In the short term, lead prices may still be under pressure amid accumulating inventory.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened higher with a gap at $2,002/mt, fluctuated rangebound above the daily average line during the Asian session, and hit a high of $2,028/mt before plummeting. Entering the European session, the decline continued. After touching a low of $1,989/mt, LME lead rebounded from the low due to short-covering, and finally closed at $2,009/mt, up $9.5/mt or 0.48%, marking a three-day winning streak. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2602 contract opened at 17,465 yuan/mt. It fluctuated rangebound above the daily average line at the beginning of the session. Affected by the broad decline in nonferrous metals, SHFE lead fluctuated downward all the way, touched a low of 17,330 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,380 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.63%. The KDJ line gap narrowed, ending a five-day winning streak and forming a small bearish candlestick. On the macro front: International crude oil rebounded as major obstacles remained in the US-led peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and geopolitical disturbances continued in the Middle East. US bond volatility was expected to record its largest annual decline since 2009. China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan." The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding the pre-tax deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses. The National Market Regulation Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that 2026 will see strengthened anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement, with in-depth rectification of "involution-style" competition, etc. : Spot supply available in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was relatively scarce. Most suppliers suspended sales due to completed inventory clearance and year-end account closing, resulting in few market quotations. However, with SHFE lead rising sharply today, some available cargoes self-picked up from production sites were gradually sold at discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The mainstream tax-included ex-factory quotations for refined lead spot orders were at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. The mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory quotations for refined lead were around 16,150 yuan/mt. Most enterprises refrained from selling due to chaotic market prices. Downstream enterprises planned for holidays, showing relatively poor purchasing enthusiasm and few inquiries, leading to sluggish market trading. Inventory: On December 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 4,625 mt to 244,275 mt. As of December 29, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions showed a downward trend. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Recently, lead prices held up well. Coupled with the year-end period, suppliers actively cleared inventory and sold goods, with some offering large discounts, while downstream enterprises made purchases as needed, driving down lead ingot social warehouse inventory. However, the lead ingot inventory base in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions was low, downstream purchases were limited, and inventory changes were relatively small. Trading activity in the spot market was expected to remain weak before the New Year's Day holiday, and social inventory was forecast to maintain at low levels. Following the New Year's Day holiday, some downstream enterprises are expected to suspend operations, while primary lead smelters resume production. It is anticipated that social inventory of lead ingots may stop falling and rebound after the holiday, with caution advised against a potential retreat after a rapid rise in lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 9-12, 2025) are as follows......

[SMM Weekly Review of ESS Battery Cell Market] Domestic demand for utility ESS has concluded in phases, with the price center pulling back slightly. Meanwhile, the temporary reduction in US tariffs has boosted export sentiment, providing some short-term support for prices. The market is exhibiting a structural game of "cooling domestically and warming externally.

[SMM Analysis: Cathode Material Production Increased MoM in May, While Downstream End-use Demand Growth Remained Sluggish] SMM reported on June 4: In May, total lithium carbonate production decreased by 2% MoM but increased by 15% YoY; lithium hydroxide production remained largely stable MoM but decreased by over 20% YoY; cobalt sulphate production decreased by 13% MoM; Co3O4 production increased slightly both MoM and YoY; ternary cathode precursor production decreased by 3.99% MoM but increased by 4.53% YoY; ternary cathode material production increased by 3.52% MoM and 23.91% YoY; the iron phosphate market remained stable, with production increasing by 2% MoM and 38% YoY; LFP production increased by approximately 6.7% MoM and 43% YoY; LCO production increased by 6% MoM.

SMM News on May 14: Today, driven by positive policy developments, the main lithium carbonate futures contract fluctuated upward after opening, surging over 3% during the session. By the close of the daytime session, the main contract closed up 3% at 65,200 yuan/mt, up 2,640 yuan/mt from the low of 62,560 yuan/mt set during the session on May 12, representing a 4.22% increase. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM's spot quotes, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate also rose slightly by 100 yuan/mt today, trading at 63,600-65,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 64,700 yuan/mt. 》Click to view SMM's spot quotes for new energy products Regarding the reasons for the rise in lithium carbonate futures prices, SMM believes it is mainly related to positive policy news. On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce website released a joint statement on the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, announcing that the US's 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese products would be suspended for the initial 90 days. According to the latest news today, this tariff adjustment has been temporarily implemented. SMM understands that, overall, due to exemptions for NEVs and their parts before and after this reciprocal tariff adjustment, the change in reciprocal tariffs will have a greater impact on the export of ESS batteries, potentially prompting an anticipated rush in exports of Chinese ESS battery cells, thereby driving up the demand for lithium carbonate. Starting from May 14, the tariff on new energy end-use products exported from China to the US is as follows: SMM predicts that, given the installation rush demand for ESS storage mentioned in China's Document No. 136 regarding the "May 31" grid connection deadline, the ESS battery cells produced in May may not be able to meet the installation rush demand in time this month. Therefore, the market previously expected that the production volume of ESS battery cells in May might decrease by 5-10% MoM compared to April. However, influenced by the golden export window period brought about by the change in US tariffs, and considering that it takes approximately one month for transportation and customs clearance from China to the US, it is expected that the production schedule of ESS battery cells for top-tier enterprises will remain at a high level in May and June, and the growth rate of ESS battery cell production is expected to turn from negative to positive MoM. 》Click to view details Returning to the supply and demand dynamics of the lithium carbonate market, lithium carbonate prices are currently hovering near recent lows. Under the pressure of cost losses, upstream lithium chemical plants have shown a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, there is only a certain level of trading activity between traders and downstream enterprises. The positive expectations for an increase in end-use demand driven by the aforementioned policy developments may, to a certain extent, drive a rebound in lithium carbonate prices. However, it should also be noted that although lithium carbonate inventory levels have slightly decreased after the Labour Day holiday, the current cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate remains high. Moreover, ore prices continue to hit new lows, and cost support is continuously weakening. Therefore, the overall price of lithium carbonate will continue to exhibit a fluctuating trend at lows. As the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose together, the shares of energy metal companies, including Tengyuan Cobalt, Huayou Cobalt, YOUNGY, Zhongkuang Resources, Weiling Co., Ltd., and Tianqi Lithium, also "rose", with multiple stocks increasing by over 1%. Dazhong Mining also responded today on the investor interaction platform regarding the progress of the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan. The company stated that as of now, the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan has been completed, laying a certain foundation for the early commissioning of mining and beneficiation operations. According to the "Lithium Exploration Report of the Tongtianmiao Ore Block in the Jijiaoshan Mining Area, Linwu County, Hunan Province" reviewed and filed by the company for its resource reserves, the associated minerals of the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Hunan include metals such as rubidium, niobium, tantalum, tin, and tungsten. Institutional Comments Xinhu Futures commented that there are no significant positive factors in the short-term fundamentals, making it difficult for lithium prices to reverse their trend. However, at the current price level, it is necessary to be cautious about the rising expectations of supply-side disruptions and the capital-driven nature of low valuations. Given the relatively high channel inventory levels across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, this will also limit the rebound space for lithium prices. Yide Futures stated that, on the supply side, the CIF price of Australian ore has fallen to $687.5/mt, while the price of African ore has remained stable at $637/mt. Port lithium ore inventory has increased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate nationwide for May has increased MoM, with the latest weekly production data showing a significant increase. On the demand side, the planned production of cathode materials, including ternary materials and LFP, has increased MoM. Based on the current production schedule, the supply and demand fundamentals still maintain a surplus pattern. In terms of inventory, the latest weekly inventory has decreased by 464 mt. Specifically, the significant increase in smelter production has not yet been transferred downstream or to traders, leading to a noticeable increase in their inventory, while the inventory of downstream traders has decreased. In the short term, the combination of front-loaded consumption and collapsing costs has led to a significant pullback in lithium carbonate prices. From a long-term industry perspective, the market requires a more thorough exit of the resource side. SDIC Futures stated that the total market inventory has decreased by 500 mt to 132,000 mt, with downstream inventory decreasing by 3,000 mt to 42,000 mt and smelter inventory increasing by 3,800 mt to 55,000 mt. The intermediate links are actively destocking. In terms of inventory structure, there is a weak willingness for downstream restocking, while passive restocking has occurred upstream, reflecting differences in market sentiment. The latest quote for Australian ore is $700, with a decline of over 15% in the past month, basically reflecting a downward shift in the price center. The midstream production has recovered rapidly, with a 28% increase in production MoM in the first week after the holiday, and an improvement in supply and demand still needs to be awaited. The futures price of lithium carbonate is in a downward channel, and short positions are being maintained.

[SMM Analysis: Summary of China's LFP Market in May and Outlook for June] China's LFP production rose approximately 6.7% MoM and 43% YoY, with the overall industry operating rate at around 56%.

[SMM Daily Review: Market Sentiment Leans Towards Wait-and-See, Short-Term High-Grade NPI Prices Remain Stable] On May 30, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous working day...