[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated and rebounded during the night session, with downstream enterprises showing a "price fall wait-and-see + sporadic orders" state.]

SMM Jul 16: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally declined. SHFE copper slipped 0.22%, SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.1%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin dropped 1.34%. SHFE nickel surged 2.94%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.26%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar and hot-rolled coil edged up. Stainless steel rose 1.13%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.31%, LME aluminum added 0.44%, LME lead advanced 0.68%. LME zinc rose 0.55%, LME tin climbed 0.46%. LME nickel jumped 2.47%. Precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver dipped 0.08%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold dropped 0.82%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 3.22%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.95%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 0.79% to 2,573.5 points. As of 11:43 on July 16, midday futures market snapshot: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,180 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,080 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's power and ESS battery sales up 49.1% YoY in June] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2026 power battery data, showing that in June, China's power and ESS battery sales were 196.0 GWh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Power battery sales were 133.4 GWh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 GWh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. January-June, China's cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 979.4 GWh, up 48.6% YoY. Power battery sales totaled 661.3 GWh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; ESS battery sales totaled 318.1 GWh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY. (Jin10 Data App) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 616 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 626 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo maturing today, the day's net injection stood at 616 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 100.5. During his appearance before a Senate hearing, Fed Chairman Warsh frequently expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, stating: "Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect underlying inflation conditions. The labour market looks quite good, but the inflation side is less optimistic. I am not satisfied with any inflation metric. We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to address inflation." The Fed's Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity expanded at a slight to mild pace in 11 of the 12 Fed districts, with the overall pace roughly on par with the prior period. The report noted that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and shifting to cheaper goods. Tourism rebounded, with World Cup-related traffic providing a boost for some regions. Manufacturing maintained mild growth, with orders rising in data centers, machinery, and national defense. Construction and real estate activity improved modestly, with data center construction a highlight. Drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer loan volumes rose modestly. However, agriculture was affected by lower commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most surveyed contacts expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, though significant uncertainty remains over the fuel cost outlook. Fed Governor Cooke stated on Wednesday that it is prudent to wait for inflation to slow for some time, but she is prepared to act if inflation does not slow soon. Cooke noted: "I believe we should give more time from now on to observe how inflation develops. However, looking ahead, I still see risks as primarily concentrated on the upside for inflation, driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and price pressures from the Iran war.""If we do not see signs of slowing inflation soon, I am prepared to act. I am fully committed to achieving our inflation target—that commitment is unwavering." Cook contrasted the current situation with a year ago, when inflation was well above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market appeared stable but ran the risk of both labor market and inflation slowdowns. "I note that the balance of risks has shifted markedly compared to about a year ago, and now inflation risks outweigh employment risks," she said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the odds of rates staying on hold stand at 51.2%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 44% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 4.7%. (Jin10 Data App) Other Currencies: On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced it would raise the 7-day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, with all seven monetary policy board members voting unanimously for the 25-basis-point hike. This is the first rate hike by the Bank of Korea since January 2023 and marks the start of a new tightening cycle. The move was fully within market expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all but one of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a July hike. A Korea Financial Investment Association poll of 100 fixed-income experts showed 66% forecast a rate increase this month. The rise from 2.50% to 2.75% appeared modest, but the signaling effect far outweighs the number itself. The Bank of Korea had cut rates four times since October 2024, reducing them by a cumulative 100 basis points, then held the benchmark rate steady for eight consecutive meetings. This rate hike may signal the formal end of the easing cycle. (Wall Street CN) Data: Data due today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US monthly retail sales for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories for May, the US pending home sales index for June, UK three-month GDP growth for May, UK manufacturing output for May, the UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and UK industrial production for May. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference of July. Fed Governor Cook Lisa will speak on the economic outlook. US Vice President Vance will deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. US President Trump will give a speech. 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. TSMC will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.23% and Brent down 0.52%. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts persisted, keeping oil prices moving sideways. US President Trump said oil prices would fluctuate for some time. For the week ended July 10, US EIA crude oil inventories dropped 1.692 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 2.594 million barrel decline and a prior build of 2.998 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories fell 1.533 million barrels, versus expectations for a 760,000 barrel decline and a prior drop of 1.904 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) A research report from Tianfeng Securities noted that the international crude oil market went through a "roller coaster" ride dominated by geopolitical risks in H1, with international oil prices surging to near $120/barrel before pulling back quickly. Recently, although tensions flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz, overall risks remain manageable. The core pricing logic for the crude market is shifting from "extreme geopolitical risks" to a three-way game among "geopolitical tail risk, political intervention, and fundamental equilibrium." In H2, oil prices are likely to see wild swings with resistance on the upside and support on the downside, with a general trend of "strength first, then weakness." The Brent price center is expected to trade within the $70/bbl–$75/bbl range. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 16 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell. Only LME nickel rose, up 0.48%. SHFE tin led the decline with a 2.04% drop. LME tin and SHFE zinc both fell over 1%, with LME tin down 1.33% and SHFE zinc down 1.03%. Gains in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.18%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.28%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, iron ore closed flat at 759.5 yuan/mt. Rebar, HRC, and stainless steel all saw slight fluctuations in gains. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.11%, while coke rose 0.63%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.07%, while COMEX silver fell 1.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.03%, while SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 6:49 a.m. on July 16, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP Up 4.7% YoY, National Economy Operating Within a Reasonable Range, New Momentum Growing Rapidly] NBS data showed that preliminary estimates indicate H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY based on constant prices. By industry, primary industry added value was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; secondary industry added value was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; and tertiary industry added value was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of quarters, Q1 GDP rose 5.0% YoY, while Q2 grew 4.3% YoY. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP increased 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces being cultivated and strengthened, and high-quality development progressing with new improvements. However, we must also note that external uncertainties and destabilizing factors remain abundant, and the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is still pronounced; the foundation for economic improvement needs to be further consolidated. In the next stage, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensifying counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, enhancing growth drivers while revitalizing existing resources, focusing on building a strong domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new growth momentum, and intensifying efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, so as to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. [PBoC: H1 Aggregate Social Financing Increased by 20.84 Trillion, New Loans 10.72 Trillion, June M2 Up 8% YoY] Preliminary PBoC statistics show that the outstanding stock of aggregate social financing at end-June 2026 was 462.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in H1 was 20.84 trillion yuan, up 7.4% YoY. In H1, RMB loans increased by 10.72 trillion yuan. At end-June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 356.71 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY. That of narrow money (M1) was 118.48 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.74 trillion yuan, up 11.8% YoY. In H1, net cash injection was 641.7 billion yuan. On the dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 100.51, recording a two-session losing streak. The US Fed's latest Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity improved mildly, with 11 of the 12 Fed districts achieving growth. Inflation was mild overall, but forecasts for the inflation outlook varied across districts, and uncertainty over energy prices was the biggest variable affecting the outlook. The labour market was solid, with employment expanding slightly, but a shortage of skilled workers pushed up wages. (Wall Street Insights) Buffett Warren said that the new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin is the "right person" for the position. "I think he will do his best to fulfil the task entrusted to him, which is to achieve 2% inflation and maintain full employment." "He cannot be perfect, just as I know I cannot be perfect in managing other people's money and earning excess returns." "He has the country's interests at heart, and I believe many Fed officials do as well. That does not mean their decisions are always perfect, but sometimes those decisions are indeed extremely difficult." (CNBC) President Trump Donald stated that pausing rate action would be better than raising rates for the Fed. He reiterated his desire for (policy) rates to fall, saying, "we should have the lowest interest rates in the world." "I respect Fed Chairman Warsh." Fed Governor Cook Lisa stated that as artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts continue and recent supply shocks push up prices, the risk of persistently high inflation outweighs the risk of a weakening labour market. In a speech prepared for an event in Washington on Wednesday, Cook Lisa said, "If we do not soon see signs that inflation continues to pull back, I am prepared to act. I am firmly committed to achieving the inflation target, and this commitment will not waver." (from the Wall Street Insights APP) According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 88.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike was 11.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September was 51.2%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike was 44%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike was 4.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data to be released include the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US June retail sales MoM, US July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July NAHB housing market index, US May business inventories MoM, US June pending home sales index MoM, as well as UK May three-month GDP MoM, UK May manufacturing output MoM, UK May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK May industrial production MoM, etc. Furthermore, the Ministry of Commerce held its second regular press conference of July, US Fed Governor Lisa Cook spoke on the economic outlook, US Vice President Vance delivered remarks, the US Fed released its Beige Book on economic conditions, US President Trump delivered a speech, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem gave a speech, and TSMC held its Q2 2026 earnings call. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose, with WTI up 1.13% and Brent up 0.39%, both recording a third consecutive session of gains as the market continued to monitor US-Iran developments. Goldman Sachs: If the prolonged disruption to Gulf exports persists and delays the production rebound, Brent crude prices could break above $110 per barrel in Q4 2026. (Jin10 Data) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels last week. Bloomberg users had expected a draw of 2 million barrels, analysts had forecast a decline of 1.962 million barrels, following an increase of 2.998 million barrels the prior week. Gasoline inventories on the US Gulf Coast hit their lowest level since September 2017. Fuel stockpile supply fell to its lowest since May 2025. (From Wall Street CN App) As the US reinstated its maritime blockade against Iran, two tankers carrying Iranian crude that appeared to be bound for Pakistan have turned back. Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show the Rani and Amil, carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude, briefly signaled Karachi as their destination before turning around on Wednesday. The two tankers were already outside the Persian Gulf when the US reimposed the maritime blockade on Iranian shipping. US Central Command said Wednesday that it had diverted two merchant vessels attempting to breach the blockade since the operation resumed, without naming the ships. According to data intelligence firm Kpler, Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude for at least a decade due to US sanctions risk. One possibility is that the two tankers selected Karachi as a waypoint for waiting or transferring cargo to other vessels. Both are under US sanctions and belong to Iran's "shadow fleet" used to ship oil. (Jin10 Data)

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Drifted Lower in the Night Session, Downstream Enterprises Were Cautious in Purchasing]

TSMC (TSM.N) saw quarterly sales rise 36%, in line with market expectations, indicating that global demand for AI hardware remains strong. Based on calculations, for the three months ended June, TSMC's revenue reached NT$1.27 trillion ($39.6 billion), consistent with the average analyst estimate. The results were driven by a strong June, when sales rose 68% YoY. In June, CEO Wei Zhejia warned that even as the US adds more manufacturing capacity in the coming years, the company will still be unable to meet demand, led by US clients, for many years. This view was echoed by major chipmakers. SK Hynix currently expects that the ongoing memory chip shortage will extend beyond 2030. TSMC is set to release its full earnings report on Thursday, along with updated full-year guidance and capital expenditure plans.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tightening expectations outside China are weakening, the most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidates near 416,000]

[SMM Morning News on Tin: Macro Headwinds Weigh on Tin Prices, Retreat After Rapid Rise; Spot Cargoes Plunge Into "High Prices Suppressing Demand" Dilemma]

Eldorado Gold announced that its McIlvenna Bay underground copper and zinc project in Saskatchewan, Canada, achieved a major milestone by producing its first copper concentrate in June 2026. The site team is now focused on ramping up operations toward commercial production, which is anticipated in Q3 2026 with a nameplate processing capacity of 4,900 tonnes per day. As of June 2026, the volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposit hosts mineral reserves of 29.7 million tonnes, grading a significant 2.17% zinc and 1.21% copper, along with 0.44g/t gold and 14.4g/t silver. Once fully operational, the 18-year mine is projected to produce an average of 54 million lbs of zinc, 41 million lbs of copper, 20,000 oz of gold, and 444,000 oz of silver annually. Eldorado acquired the project via its C$3.8 billion acquisition of Foran Mining in April 2026. The modern underground operation utilizes battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and conventional flotation circuits to produce separate premium copper and zinc concentrates for toll smelters.

Morgan Stanley released a research report, forecasting that production of EPYC Venice processors will reach 6.75 million units in 2027, about 17% more than Nvidia Vera's 5.75 million units. Toll processing side, Morgan Stanley estimates that TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity will rise to 200,000 wafers per month in 2027, and Nvidia will remain the largest client for its advanced packaging.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract falls to around 390,000/mt, market trading sentiment recovers]