SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

Silver prices have broken through and stabilized above the key level of $35 per ounce in the past two weeks, giving analysts strong bullish confidence. Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, said that the silver market is euphoric as prices have broken through the $35-per-ounce level, a level that has been difficult to breach in the past few years. The last time silver prices surpassed this level, they reached nearly $50 per ounce within six weeks, so excitement in the market is now heating up. David Erfle, founder of Junior Miner Junky, also believes that silver's weekly break above $35 marks a technical breakthrough for silver prices, and that silver prices are fluctuating very rapidly, with significant volatility expected. If silver prices close above $37.5 this month, they could further break through to $40 and challenge the historical high of $50 by the end of the year. As of press time, the London silver spot price was around $36.35 per ounce. Reasons for Optimism on Silver Prices Ghali pointed out that the significant rise in silver prices is somewhat related to inventory imbalances in major trading centers in New York and London. This unresolved market distortion could lead to a series of mini squeezes in the market and drive silver prices to new highs in the near future. He analyzed that silver ETFs have recently attracted inflows, which are depleting the remaining inventory in the world's largest silver vault system in London. Previously, due to tariff threats from the US, a large amount of silver had flowed from London to New York. He noted that the current market structure is characterized by extremely scarce silver supply in London, with the amount of silver available for free purchase being less than the amount typically traded daily. However, the London market has not yet factored this scarcity into pricing, nor has the broader market priced in the incentives needed to return silver to actual physical trading locations. In addition, improving demand prospects are also supporting silver prices. Ghali believes that while tariffs have led many analysts to expect an economic downturn and weaken industrial demand, no signs of this have emerged so far, demonstrating the resilience of demand. News from US inflation data may also be positive for silver prices. US CPI data for May only rose slightly, well below the significant increase expected by the market due to tariffs, but it could prompt the US Fed to consider an interest rate cut in September. Once interest rates are cut, industrial demand for silver is expected to increase, and the cut will also be beneficial for the rise in precious metal prices. Erfle provided another reason, which is that silver mining stocks have already moved ahead and are leading the rise in silver prices. He said that miners usually lead the silver price rally and trigger a simultaneous increase. Before the significant rise in silver prices, the fund ETF SIL, which tracks global silver mining stocks, had reached a multi-year closing high, and some other silver mining stocks had also hit new 52-week highs recently.

For well-known institutional investors in the US bond market, such as DoubleLine Capital, there seem to be only two attitudes towards 30-year US Treasuries at present: either avoid them as much as possible or short them directly... Due to concerns about the swelling US government budget deficit and the worsening debt burden, this investment company, led by "new bond king" Gundlach, as well as other well-known fixed-income market investment institutions such as Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) and TCW Group Inc., have adopted similar strategies: avoiding the longest-dated US government bonds and instead favouring shorter-term bonds with lower interest rate risks that still offer considerable returns. As government spending has increased globally—from Japan to the UK and then to the US—confidence in long-term bonds has been eroded. This portfolio adjustment, shifting from long-term to short-term bonds, has performed well this year. Last month, following S&P and Fitch, Moody's, the last of the world's three major rating agencies, also stripped the US of its Aaa sovereign credit rating. In fact, from the perspective of the yield curve structure of US Treasuries, the steepening of the yield curve this year has become particularly evident—the yield on 30-year US Treasuries has continued to climb sharply, while the yields on medium- and short-term Treasuries, such as 2-year and 5-year notes, have instead declined. As investors worry about the possibility of the US government issuing more bonds to cover the deficit, the yield on 30-year US Treasuries reached 5.15% last month, approaching its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the spread between the yield on 30-year US Treasuries and that on 5-year US Treasuries rose above 100 basis points for the first time since 2021. This discrepancy is extremely rare—the last time it occurred throughout the year was in 2001, undoubtedly highlighting the pressure on long-term bonds, as investors demand additional compensation to be willing to lend to the US government for such a long period. The decline in long-term bonds has been so severe that some have even begun to speculate that the US Treasury Department may reduce or halt the auction of the longest-dated bonds. Avoiding long-term bonds, Richard McGuire, a strategist at Rabobank, said, "We can certainly see why the long end of the US Treasury curve is unpopular. The US policy outlook is too bleak to attract buyers of long-term US Treasuries." Bill Campbell, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, pointed out, " When we can short directly, we are betting on the steepening of the yield curve, expecting long-term yields to rise relative to short-term yields. In other purely long-only strategies, we are essentially staging a 'buyer's strike' and instead investing more in the middle part of the yield curve." " In fact, the US fiscal situation had already prompted Pimco to call for caution on 30-year Treasuries as early as the end of last year, and the firm still maintains an underweight position on long-term bonds. Mohit Mittal, chief investment officer of core strategies at the bond giant, said Pimco currently favours the 5-year and 10-year segments of the US Treasury yield curve and is looking at non-US bonds. "If there is a rebound in the bond market, we believe it will be led by the 5-year to 10-year segment, not long-term bonds," Mittal said. Given that the US Treasury has long sought stability in its debt auction schedule, the growing chatter on Wall Street about scaling back 30-year Treasury auctions seems unusual. Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said last week, that long-term bonds are not currently trading as the risk-free assets that Wall Street has long considered them to be, and that the possibility of scaling back or cancelling auctions is real. "I don't want to be the guy standing in front of the steamroller right now," Michele said in an interview. "I'll let others help stabilise the long end. I'm worried things will get worse before they get better." TD Securities strategists, in a report last week, forecast that the US Treasury could signal a move to scale back long-end auctions as early as in its August refinancing announcement. However, a US Treasury spokesperson recently said that auction demand for bonds of all maturities has been strong, and the government will adhere to its long-standing policy of issuing bonds in a "regular and predictable manner." In a statement on April 30, the US Treasury also pledged to keep auction sizes for long-term bonds and other maturities stable—at least for the next few quarters. Looking ahead, it is foreseeable that a key test will come on June 12, when the next 30-year Treasury auction takes place. Long-term bond auctions in major economies have recently become a significant "storm centre" for global markets. In Japan last month, long-term bond auctions showed worrying signs of weakening confidence in the country's longest-dated bonds, with demand for a 40-year Japanese government bond issue hitting its weakest level since last July, increasing pressure on officials to reduce issuance of such long-term bonds. Similarly, the auction results for 20-year US Treasuries in the US last month were also sluggish, further exacerbating concerns about demand for long-term US Treasuries.

SMM April 27 News: Metal Market: Overnight Friday, both domestic and overseas metal markets mostly declined, with only LME tin and SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.67% and 0.08% respectively. LME nickel led the losses with a 2.09% drop, followed by SHFE nickel (down 1.22%), LME zinc (down 1.56%), while other metals fell less than 1%. Alumina main contract dropped 0.42%. Ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore down 1.33% and stainless steel down 0.31%. HRC and rebar both rose over 1%, gaining 2.21% and 1.67% respectively. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.42% while coke dipped 0.25%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.55% overnight Friday but edged up 0.05% weekly, pressured by a stronger US dollar and weaker safe-haven demand. COMEX silver dropped 1.43% overnight but rose 1.71% weekly. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.77% overnight Friday but gained 0.22% weekly, while SHFE silver fell 0.93%. TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali noted that tariff tensions easing negatively impacted gold prices, but large-scale position unwinding hasn’t been observed yet. However, he added that investors continued bargain-hunting in recent sessions, suggesting gold could resume its upward trajectory. Overnight Friday closing prices as of 9:04 AM April 27: 》Click to view SMM futures dashboard Macro Front: Domestic: 【CPC Politburo Holds Meeting to Analyze Current Economic Situation and Work】 The meeting emphasized adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm, balancing domestic economic work and international trade struggles, resolutely managing China’s own affairs, expanding high-level opening-up, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and responding to external uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development. 》Click for details Xinhua Commentary published an article titled "Q1 China Economic Observation｜Implementing More Proactive Fiscal Policy Effectively". It stressed ensuring fiscal funds are deployed swiftly and effectively, optimizing expenditure structure, strengthening performance management, and directing every yuan toward critical areas of national welfare. 【Pan Gongsheng: Implementing Appropriately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Economic Growth】 Per the PBOC website, the second G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting of 2025 was held in Washington, DC on April 23-24, discussing global economic outlook, international financial architecture reform, and Africa’s development challenges. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and spoke, with Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng also present. Participants acknowledged ongoing global recovery but highlighted rising downside risks from trade tensions, tighter financing conditions, and structural challenges. Concerns were voiced over trade friction escalation, calling for enhanced dialogue, policy coordination, and multilateral trade system improvements. Support was expressed for a more stable, efficient, and resilient international financial framework, including multilateral development banks’ financing capacity. Pan stressed that economic fragmentation and trade tensions disrupt supply chains and weaken growth momentum, noting trade wars have no winners. Major economies should strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and take concrete steps to safeguard global stability. China’s economy started 2025 well, maintaining recovery momentum with stable financial markets. The PBOC will implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy to advance high-quality growth. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.33% overnight Friday and 0.38% weekly, marking its first weekly gain since mid-March. Contradictory signals on tariff tensions caused volatility. On Monday, Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Powell triggered dollar asset sell-offs, pushing it to a low near 97.92—its weakest since April 8, 2022. However, Trump’s shifting rhetoric later lifted it above 99, though resistance at 100 persisted. The Fed warned asset valuations remained elevated post-April sell-offs, with housing prices still high. Next week brings key US data and earnings. Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and April jobs data may influence rate-cut decisions. Employment figures will be pivotal as the nonfarm payrolls report reveals tariff and tightening impacts on the labor market. (Wenhua Composite) Other Currencies: USD/JPY rose 0.67% to 143.555 yen, while USD/CHF gained 0.09% to 0.827 francs. EUR/USD fell 0.11% to 1.1377. Despite strong UK retail sales, GBP/USD dipped 0.1% to 1.3325. BOJ Governor Ueda stated Thursday that rate hikes would continue if underlying inflation trends toward 2%, but US tariff effects require careful assessment. GBP/USD declined 0.1% to 1.3325 despite March retail sales growing 0.4% (vs. expected -0.4%). Q1 sales rose 1.6%, the strongest in four years. MPC member Greene noted tariffs’ downward pressure on UK inflation, bolstering rate-cut bets. Markets now price in two cuts over the next three meetings and at least one more by year-end. Macro Outlook: Next week, China releases April official manufacturing PMI; the US reports ADP employment, Q1 GDP (annualized q/q), core PCE, consumer spending, Chicago PMI, personal spending, core PCE (y/y), pending home sales, jobless claims, SPGI/ISM manufacturing PMIs, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, durable goods, factory orders, wholesale inventories, and consumer confidence; the eurozone publishes M3 money supply, industrial/economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, SPGI PMI, core CPI, and unemployment; Germany issues Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment, Q1 GDP, CPI, and SPGI PMI; Australia reports Q1 CPI, trade data; the UK shares CBI retail sales and SPGI PMI; France discloses Q1 GDP and SPGI PMI; Switzerland releases official reserves and economic expectations. Japan’s May 1 policy rate, March unemployment, Canada’s February GDP, and manufacturing PMIs for Mexico, Malaysia, and Brazil are also due. Additionally, Canada holds federal elections; the BoC releases April meeting minutes; BOJ Governor Ueda holds a press conference and issues the outlook report. Notably, due to China’s Labor Day holiday, SHFE, DCE, CZCE, and GFEX will suspend night trading on April 30. On May 1, exchanges in China (including Taiwan), South Korea, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK will close. Hong Kong operates normally but suspends northbound/southbound trading. On May 5, Chinese mainland exchanges remain closed, while LME halts for the Early May Bank Holiday. South Korea observes Buddha’s Birthday, Japan celebrates Children’s Day, and Hong Kong closes for Buddha’s Birthday, with trading resuming May 6. Crude Oil: Oil prices rose overnight—WTI up 0.61%, Brent up 0.27%—but posted weekly losses (WTI -1.31%, Brent -1.75%) on surplus concerns and tariff uncertainty. Prices hit four-year lows earlier this month as tariffs sparked demand worries and financial sell-offs. Weak growth may curb demand, while supply could rise if Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, freeing more Russian oil. Baker Hughes reported US rig counts increased for the second straight week, the first since February. (Wenhua Composite)

On Thursday evening Beijing time, the Bank of England announced that, due to recent market volatility, it has canceled the plan to sell long-term government bonds originally scheduled for April 14, and will only sell short-term bonds instead. (Source: Bank of England) The Bank of England stated that it intends to reschedule the long-term bond auction to the next quarter, aiming to "cover all maturities as evenly as possible" during the process of reducing the bond holdings of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). A spokesperson for the bank described this move as a "precautionary measure." As background, the closely watched yield on the UK 30-year government bond surged by 30 basis points on Wednesday, reaching a high of 5.64%, which is also the highest level since 1998. (UK 30-Year Government Bond Yield Daily Chart, Source: TradingView) Strictly speaking, the "blame" for the sharp decline in UK government bonds lies with Donald Trump across the ocean. His policies triggered a sell-off in US bonds, which in turn affected UK bonds that often move in sync with the US market. For the UK, the 30-year government bond is an extremely important and prominent asset. Due to the favor of insurance companies and pensions for this product, the country has issued a large amount of such bonds. The volatility on Wednesday also reached the extreme levels seen since the "Liz Truss fiscal plan shock" at the end of 2022. Because Trump's tariff proposal also has the characteristics of being reckless and lacking sufficient consideration, financial markets have often compared him to Truss in recent days. Regarding the severe volatility in UK and US government bonds, Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at T. Rowe Price, said: "Long-term bonds are gradually becoming a risky asset because there is great uncertainty and market liquidity is also very scarce." In addition to investors eager to cash out, there is also a layer of concern: the global trade conflict triggered by Trump may force the UK government to cobble together some policies to cope with economic shocks, leading to even tighter finances and ultimately having to turn to "opening the fiscal faucet." Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, warned in a speech on Thursday that although the market is beginning to recover from the extreme turbulence of the past week, risk asset prices still face a high risk of significant correction. Breeden said: " A series of tariff measures implemented and then partially revoked by the US government, even after the adjustments announced yesterday, still constitute the most significant shift in US trade policy in a century. Overall, tariffs may suppress UK economic growth." She also stated that although the decline in UK export demand may alleviate inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions could also lead to price increases, so it is still too early to determine what decision to make at the interest rate meeting on May 8. Currently, analysts are also paying attention to whether the recent severe market turbulence will have a longer-term impact on the Bank of England's balance sheet reduction plan. Pooja Kumra, Senior Interest Rate Strategist at TD Securities, said that the latest developments indicate that if market volatility remains unhealthy as in the past few trading days, the lifespan of quantitative tightening may be very short. The Bank of England's decision "clearly suggests that a period of quantitative tightening freeze is approaching," especially for long-term bonds. The Bank of England had previously planned to reduce its holdings of government bonds by £100 billion over 12 months starting from October 2024, including £13 billion in active sales.

Gold continued to edge higher after posting its biggest one-day gain in 18 months, as US President Trump's tariff agenda confused the market, prompting investors to buy precious metals for safe-haven purposes. On Wednesday, the market experienced sharp volatility, with gold surging as much as 3.9% and eventually closing up 3.3%. During Thursday's Asian session, gold broke through the $3,120 level, just $50 short of the all-time high set last week. By 2025, it had already risen by more than $400. The erratic nature of the US government's tariff plans has unsettled global markets, with investors scrambling for direction and certainty. This typically supports gold, which has risen 18% so far this year. Hopes for further monetary policy easing by the US Fed and central bank purchases have also boosted gold prices. In the previous trading session, gold initially surged after US tariffs on about 60 trading partners took effect, exacerbating market turmoil and increasing concerns about a global economic downturn. Subsequently, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of plans to raise tariffs on 56 trading partners and the EU, which will now be taxed at a baseline rate of 10%. Markets rebounded after Trump announced the tariff hike suspension. US stocks had their best day since the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 surging nearly 10%, after teetering on the edge of a bear market the previous week. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities said, "Ultimately, gold is still seen as a hedge against instability . We are facing a situation where tariffs are becoming a big issue, and inflation expectations are also rising, which is reflected in higher yields." According to the latest released US Fed meeting minutes, Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces risks of rising inflation and slowing growth, with some pointing to potential "difficult trade-offs" in the future. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders expect a 72% chance of a US Fed rate cut in June. A market strategist said that as the global economy faces unprecedented uncertainty, gold will continue to outperform silver. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, raised her 2025 gold price forecast in her latest precious metals report, while lowering her outlook for silver. She stated in the report: "As tariff announcements solidify a volatile environment for hedging, defense, and safety, which will keep gold in play, our 'reflation' base case has been significantly delayed. The silver forecast has been revised downward (too optimistic relative to macro changes and the negative impact of tariff policies on growth and demand)." Shiels now expects gold prices to average around $2,950 per ounce this year, up from her initial forecast of $2,750. She said that while gold prices are rising, investors should expect higher volatility in the current market environment. Shiels stated, "Although gold will not be immune to liquidity-driven global de-risking events, wealth destruction in the global economy will benefit precious metals ." She stated in the report, "Stagflation is coming, as demand destruction cannot last forever; prices will be passed on to consumers, and this does not even take into account the fact that the uncertainty of tariff policies will push up consumer inflation expectations. An analysis of the performance of precious metals and asset classes under four different macroeconomic regimes from 2009 to 2024—Goldilocks, reflation, stagflation, and deflation—highlights that gold performed best (+12.1%), providing consistent protection during all stagflation periods." Shiels said that ultimately, as economic activity slows and inflationary pressures rise, gold prices will move higher. Looking at silver, Shiels expects silver prices to average $34.50 per ounce this year, down from her initial forecast of $36.50. Shiels said that while silver investment demand is expected to remain strong this year, declining industrial demand due to the global economic slowdown will outweigh investment demand. She said: "Given the expected negative impact of the global trade war, silver's industrial demand should be under pressure. Unless a new catalyst emerges, silver will remain more comfortably in the $28-35 range. The prospect of a significant rise in silver to $40/oz, driven by gold's outperformance and substantial reinvestment, depends on a more accommodative US Fed policy and a significant rollback in trade war policies and rhetoric. If anything changes, it is only likely to happen in H2 2025." Shiels' updated outlook was released against the backdrop of gold significantly outperforming silver, with the gold-silver ratio hitting a five-year high earlier this week, exceeding 106.

SMM April 10 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals mostly fell overnight, with SHFE tin down 5.72%. SHFE copper slightly declined. SHFE nickel dropped 1.01%. SHFE lead fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum decreased 0.1%, while SHFE zinc rose 0.77%. Additionally, alumina increased 2.29%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore rose 1.09%, stainless steel fell 1.81%, rebar increased 0.55%, and HRC climbed 0.78%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 0.65%, and coke rose 0.49%. LME metals mostly gained overnight, with LME copper up 2.79%. LME zinc increased 2.22%, LME tin fell 5.93%, LME lead dropped 0.24%, LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME nickel climbed 1.69%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 3.67%, and COMEX silver increased 4.31%. SHFE gold rose 1.48%, and SHFE silver climbed 2.21%. As of 8:11 AM on April 10, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, a strong countermeasure was announced: an additional 50% tariff on all imports originating from the US. On April 8, Eastern Time, the US increased the previously announced 34% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese exports to the US by 50% to 84%. The State Council Tariff Commission announced on April 9 that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, the additional tariff rates on imports originating from the US would be adjusted from 34% to 84%. Click for details. The State Council Information Office released a white paper on issues concerning China-US economic and trade relations, clarifying facts and stating China's policy stance. The white paper emphasized that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. As two major countries with different development stages and economic systems, it is normal for China and the US to have differences and frictions in economic and trade cooperation. The key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and find proper solutions through dialogue and consultation. Trade wars have no winners, and protectionism is no way out. The success of China and the US is an opportunity rather than a threat to each other. It is hoped that the US will work with China in the same direction, following the guidance of the leaders' phone call, and resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue and consultation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, jointly promoting the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations. Click for details. Xiao Lu, Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference on April 9 that China's foreign trade is confident and capable of facing various risks and challenges. Xiao Lu pointed out that in 2024, China's goods imports and exports crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds, reaching 43 trillion yuan, with the international export market share steadily increasing, expected to reach around 14.7%. China's open door will only open wider, and China will firmly practice true multilateralism, firmly maintain global trade order, and work with more trading partners to achieve win-win results and inject more stability into global trade growth. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data showed that domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs in March reached 991,000 units, up 38.0% YoY. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, stated on the 9th that the US tariff increase provides greater development space for Chinese EVs in overseas markets. "In the past, Chinese cars faced a complex environment in overseas markets, but now the world trade order is showing a multipolar development trend, which has brought relatively independent development space for Chinese cars in various countries." Cui Dongshu believes that there will be better opportunities, especially in intelligent electrification. "The core of intelligent electrification is electrification, and the core of electrification is the industry chain. China has a huge advantage in the electrification industry chain. We believe that in the future, we should strive to develop small and micro EVs and plug-in hybrid models to achieve our expansion in overseas markets." The SHFE announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and other futures contracts. Starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. The price fluctuation limits for natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 9% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 10%. The price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 12% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 13%. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. In the US dollar market, the US dollar index fell 0.01% overnight to 102.97. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "As the trade situation continues to be an issue, I think over time, people may bet on the decline of the US dollar's role in global trade." The market is concerned that tariffs will stimulate inflation and hinder economic growth. The Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces the risk of rising inflation while growth slows, with some policymakers pointing out that "difficult trade-offs" may be faced in the future. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market believes there is a 72% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The market now hopes that Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide more information. In other currencies, European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that since the March interest rate meeting, downside risks have intensified, providing reasons for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting. Tariff increases and increased uncertainty have adversely affected economic growth in the eurozone and Finland in the short term. A significant tariff increase will boost US inflation. But in the eurozone, the impact on inflation may be two-way, with tariff increases increasing price pressures and slowing growth suppressing them. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March M2 money supply YoY (April 10-17, time uncertain), China's March social financing scale year-to-date, China's March new yuan loans year-to-date, China's March PPI YoY, China's March CPI YoY, US March CPI YoY unadjusted, US March core CPI YoY unadjusted, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, and US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue event at the Washington Economic Club; the Fed releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks; the Bundesbank releases its monthly report; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech titled "Navigating Economic Fog" at a summit and participates in a Q&A session. In the crude oil market, both oil futures rose sharply overnight, with US oil up 5.25% and Brent oil up 4.62%. Oil prices surged, rebounding from a four-year low hit at the start of the session, with bargain hunting emerging after recent sharp declines. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week due to higher imports and exports falling to the lowest since January, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. The EIA said that in the week ending April 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, compared with market expectations of an increase of 1.4 million barrels. Data showed that US crude oil net imports increased by 360,000 barrels per day to just under 3 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day. However, the OPEC+ producer group decided last week to increase May production by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts believe could push the market into surplus, limiting oil's gains. (Webstock Inc.)

【US "Copper Rush": Suddenly Turned into a "Sprint Race"?】①The US "copper rush" suddenly turned into a "sprint race" this week...②Many traders were left in a frenzy: if the cargo ships loaded with copper arrived at US ports "leisurely" after Trump's tariffs took effect, their "well-calculated plans" might instead lead to huge losses... (Cailian Press)

Foreign media reported on May 26 that hedge funds are shorting London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19.

Short-term interest rate futures are priced for the Fed to cut rates by about 150 basis points from September 2023 to September 2024.