As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

SMM June 6 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals across both domestic and overseas markets fell collectively. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%, LME copper fell 2.78%, and LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1% (LME aluminum fell 1.84%, LME zinc fell 1.52%, and SHFE copper fell 1.84%). The declines for the remaining metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.65%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with only stainless steel falling by 0.14%. All other metals rose, with hot-rolled coil and rebar up around 0.4% (hot-rolled coil rose 0.47% and rebar rose 0.44%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold fell 3.35%, posting a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver tumbled 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, recording a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%, and SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US once again recorded strong job growth in May, raising concerns about a possible interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping's Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping's first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and North Korea has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. Both sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push China-North Korea relations for greater development while advancing with the times, enhancing the well-being of the two peoples, and making greater contributions to regional and even global peace, stability, development, and prosperity. (Xinhua News Agency) China: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council Executive Meeting on June 5. The meeting pointed out that, based on the characteristics of future industries, it is necessary to further strengthen forward-looking layout and intensify promotion efforts to firmly grasp the initiative in development. Efforts must be made to solidify the technological foundation by continuously increasing investment in basic research and systematically deploying original and disruptive technological breakthroughs. Emphasis should be placed on ecosystem building by promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation along the industry chain, and cultivating more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Employees may withdraw the stored balance in their housing provident fund accounts under any of the following circumstances: (1) paying rent; (2) purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling self-occupied housing; (3) repaying principal and interest on home purchase loans; (4) decorating self-occupied housing up to a specified limit; (5) paying property management fees for self-occupied housing; (6) retiring or resigning; (7) completely losing work capacity and terminating the employment (personnel) relationship with the employer; (8) emigrating and settling abroad; (9) other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mini- and Small-Sized Passenger Car Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of EV charging facilities in highway service areas, with 30,000 new or upgraded EV charging facilities (charging guns) with power above 60 kW to be completed in highway service areas (including rest areas) by the end of 2028. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07, following data that showed strong US job performance in May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, with jobs data for the previous two months revised upward. The average job growth over the last three months marked the best performance in over two years, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience far exceeding overall market expectations. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos noted that the re-acceleration of hiring this spring will provide further ammunition for Fed officials concerned about inflation and believing current interest rates are too low to suppress a new round of price pressures. Some officials have recently hinted that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back part of the three 25-basis-point rate cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were made to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier than it did then. This jobs report won't entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it further illustrates that the case for cutting rates in the near term has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for rate hikes currently stems from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks, including AI infrastructure buildout, tariffs, and energy, could keep inflation persistently well above the Fed's 2% target, even if progress is made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. If the Fed stays on hold while inflation rises, real inflation-adjusted rates would decline. Even if the labour market isn't the main driver, this mechanism could become a key factor fueling debate over rate hikes. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed's Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly in balance, rate hikes could become appropriate in the near term. Hammack said that while she never focuses too much on any single data point, today's jobs report reaffirms that the labour market seems roughly in balance. She noted that the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% is broadly consistent with what she defines as full employment. Given the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, holding rates steady is sensible for now. But if recent trends continue, action could be needed soon. This essentially echoed remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, the May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, prompting the US interest rate futures market to sharply increase bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. According to LSEG data, interest rate futures markets now price in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the release of the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market continues to widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Stronger than expected employment data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforcing investor judgement that the Fed could resume raising rates later in the year to address inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (vs. 96.4% prior to the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Next week, China side, China will release data including the May CPI yoy, May PPI yoy, May Trade Balance (pending), and May M2 Money Supply yoy (pending). US side, data to be released includes the US May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP Employment for the week ending May 23, April Trade Balance, May Existing Home Sales Annualized Rate, April Wholesale Sales m/m, May unadjusted CPI yoy, May seasonally adjusted CPI m/m, May seasonally adjusted Core CPI m/m, May unadjusted Core CPI yoy, US 10-Year Note Auction rate and bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending June 10, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI yoy, May PPI m/m, June preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, and June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Germany side, data to be released includes the German April seasonally adjusted Industrial Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Trade Balance, and May final CPI m/m. Eurozone side, data to be released includes the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, ECB Deposit Facility Rate for the period through June 11, and ECB Main Refinancing Rate for the period through June 11. UK side, data to be released includes the UK April 3-month GDP m/m, April Manufacturing Production m/m, April seasonally adjusted Goods Trade Balance, and April Industrial Production m/m. Other data to be released includes the Bank of Canada rate decision for the period through June 10, France May final CPI m/m, Japan April Trade Balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index. Additionally, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BOC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: At the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell collectively. WTI crude fell 3%, and Brent crude declined 2.37%, though both recorded weekly gains (WTI crude up 3.31% for the week, Brent crude up 1.82% for the week). Overnight oil prices fell mainly due to reduced market concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict. On the 5th, while at a campaign event in Wisconsin, former President Trump tweeted that he would swiftly end the war with Iran, removing a key driver of high prices. As the midterm elections approach, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran conflict has led to rising oil prices and higher living costs, pressuring Republican electoral prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. It expects rapid production recovery in the region, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries combined with potentially more aggressive OPEC policy could reignite oversupply conditions in 2026 Q4 and push oil prices lower once the strait reopens. Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around end-July (meaning a five-month effective closure period), our base case forecast is for Brent crude oil to average $87/bbl in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains over the exact timing of the strait's reopening, and risks to oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects temporary logistical supply disruptions rather than permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the strait to reopen around the end of July and believe Brent crude oil prices will fall significantly from elevated levels seen during the March to July period. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade against Iran and ongoing turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continue to curtail output. OPEC daily oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels in May (Iran accounting for half), dropping to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. The figures exclude the UAE, which left OPEC last month. Iran's daily oil production last month tumbled to 2.34 million barrels, the lowest in five years, a drop of 710,000 barrels. The US Central Command remains active in enforcing the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, now expecting that crude oil prices could remain around $100/bbl until 2028 even if the US reaches a peace agreement with Iran, because it now assumes a longer timeline for energy supply recovery from the Gulf region. The new analysis warns that pressures on energy prices are higher than previously expected, while the global economic outlook is also deteriorating. The UK government previously expected that Gulf region supplies could resume within about six months after the war ends, but it now believes that recovery could take as long as fourteen months. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM Report, June 5: Benchmark monthly long-term contract prices for China’s tungsten sector were officially released recently. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association unveiled its June 2026 domestic tungsten forecast prices: 55% WO₃ black tungsten concentrate at RMB 505,000 per metric ton, down RMB 195,000/MT month-on-month; ammonium paratungstate (APT) priced at RMB 760,000 per metric ton, a MoM drop of RMB 260,000/MT;

Today, the Dalian iron ore futures trend was weak. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 766 yuan/mt, down 0.91% from the previous session. Port spot prices fell 1-5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed little quoting enthusiasm; steel mills restocked mostly for rigid demand with limited inquiries; spot transactions have been thin so far. Currently, steel mills' procurement pace has begun to slow down. SMM's latest data shows that the daily average port pick-up volume at 35 main ports nationwide edged down by 37,000 mt to 3.2 million mt, showing signs of peaking and pulling back from the high in May. Over the same period, inventory at main ports stood at 148.39 million mt, up 440,000 mt MoM, marking the first increase since end-March. Meanwhile, the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented today, while expectations for the sixth round still exist. Squeezed steel mill profits may force ore prices to soften. Therefore, on balance, iron ore prices are struggling to rise in the near term, and the trend may be primarily in the doldrums.

Next week, macro data releases will include China’s May CPI annual rate, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate, and the preliminary US June one-year inflation expectations, all of which are about to be released. Additionally, US-Iran peace talks have seen repeated setbacks, and the US is planning to impose additional tariffs on over 60 global economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, leaving the macro environment clouded by numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, China’s head of state will pay a state visit to North Korea from June 8 to 9. On the LME lead front, following two consecutive weeks of heavy deliveries into warehouses, LME lead inventory hit a 13-year high. Meanwhile, a supply gap for high-grade lead ingots persists in Southeast Asia. Even though environmental protection inspections on secondary lead have concluded in the Vietnam market, spot lead continues to trade at widespread, high premiums, causing the LME lead ingot inventory buildup to reverse and shift into a decline. Overseas macro uncertainties abound, pressuring the base metals complex lower. Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the strong supportive factor of supply gaps for lead ore and lead ingots. LME lead is expected to trade within $1,990-2,050/mt next week. On the SHFE lead side, a supply-demand mismatch for lead ingots in China and inventory buildup risks are weighing on lead prices. Additionally, with futures delivery approaching, invisible inventory will be converted to visible inventory. During the lead price decline, secondary lead losses have widened, and supply of lead ore and scrap batteries has been tight, leaving limited downside room for lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade within 16,200-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,200-16,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the post-maintenance recovery of primary and secondary lead has paused for now. Furthermore, with secondary lead losses widening, secondary refined lead has formed an inversion over primary lead. Coupled with potential delivery brand shipments to delivery warehouses, circulating supply is expected to tighten relatively, and spot discounts are expected to narrow further. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises are merely producing based on sales, and after the lead price drop, they have not engaged in concentrated procurement as witnessed during the mid-to-late May decline. They are expected to maintain just-in-time procurement.

SMM June 5 news: LME lead started the week at $2,015/mt, was pulled up by bulls to $2,046/mt mid-week, then oscillated down after profit-taking pressure emerged, hitting a low of $2,003/mt. As of 3:00 pm Beijing time, it closed at $2,008.5/mt, down 0.15% for the week. SHFE lead contract 2607 opened at 16,580 yuan/mt, surged to a high of 16,720 yuan/mt mid-week, then fell consecutively to 16,365 yuan/mt as profit-takers exited, before rebounding slightly at the end to close at 16,405 yuan/mt, down 0.93% for the week.

[Divergence in Downstream Consumption Combined with Destocking: SHFE Aluminum Expected to Fluctuate in the Short Term] The tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the macro front has intensified. Amid geopolitical risks in the Middle East, wait-and-see sentiment in the market is expected to persist. The supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong floor support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs are also expected to drive aluminum prices higher. However, high inventory pressure in China remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust.

SMM June 5 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals fell broadly across both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME copper and SHFE copper rising together. LME copper rose 0.86%, and SHFE copper rose 0.64%. LME tin and SHFE tin both fell over 2%, with LME tin down 2.24% and SHFE tin down 2.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.25%, while the remaining metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 1.36%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Stainless steel and iron ore both dropped over 1%, with stainless steel down 1.01% and iron ore down 1.23%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar each fell around 0.4%. Coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal up 1.23% and coke up 0.88%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.79% and COMEX silver rose 0.58%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.43% and SHFE silver rose 0.73%. As of 6:42 AM on June 5, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [PBOC: Conducted 500 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation] The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China would conduct a 500 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a term of 3 months (92 days) and a maturity date of September 5, 2026 (to be extended in case of holidays). US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.44. US Fed's Daly stated that monetary policy is currently in a good position, but the economic outlook is too uncertain to provide clarity on the direction of interest rates. Daly said it is not appropriate to offer forward guidance at this time, as it is impossible to predict how the economy will develop. The most concerning issue at present is inflation, with the focus on rising energy and food prices, and bringing inflation back to the target level is the Fed's top priority. Daly also noted that although there is no clear evidence in current economic data that artificial intelligence has boosted productivity, she remains optimistic about the technology and believes 2027 will be the litmus test; meanwhile, she has not identified financial stability concerns related to AI investment. (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the New York Fed showed that global supply chains remained under pressure in May due to the Middle East conflict, indicating that inflationary pressures will remain severe for the foreseeable future. The latest Global Supply Chain Pressure Index pulled back slightly to 1.77 from April's unrevised reading of 1.82. The index remained near levels seen in the second half of 2022. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.5%, with an 8.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include the US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings year-on-year, US May average hourly earnings month-on-month, UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month, France April industrial output month-on-month, France April trade balance, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final. In addition, 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will participate in a fireside chat, and 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI crude down 3.24% and Brent crude down 2.5%. The market pinned hopes on the possibility of an end to the US-Iran conflict; however, US crude oil inventory declines exceeded expectations and market supply remained constrained, providing a foundation for oil prices to move higher. Iran's crude oil and condensate exports fell to at least a six-year low in May, with daily average exports well below 300,000 barrels per day, mainly due to the US naval blockade imposed since April 13. At that time, Iran nearly completely blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, and the oil market faced a supply deficit. Vortexa data showed Iran's May exports were approximately 209,000 bpd, down from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March, the lowest level since the end of 2019. Another agency, Kpler, estimated May exports at approximately 260,000 bpd, also a six-year low. (Wallstreetcn) According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, for the week ending May 29, total US crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 10.6 million barrels from the previous week to 1.57 billion barrels, the lowest level since 2004. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8 million barrels in a single week to 433.7 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of a 3.3 million barrel draw. (Wallstreetcn) Fitch stated that the Strait of Hormuz closure has lasted 14 weeks, and it assumes the strait will not begin to reopen until July. Fitch raised its 2026 Brent crude oil average price assumption from $70/barrel in March to $87/barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2607 opened at 94,370 yuan/mt, touching a high of 94,710 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward. After the daytime session opened, the copper price center continued to shift lower, dipping to 93,000 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 93,300 yuan/mt, down 1.85%. Open interest stood at 11,187 lots, down 166 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 7,668 lots, indicating bulls reducing positions. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations remained at a stalemate, and tensions in the Gulf region escalated again, weighing on copper prices. Additionally, the US ADP employment data exceeded market expectations, and the New York Fed President stated that there was no need to raise or cut interest rates at present. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals from both imported and domestic sources remained low. Demand side, copper prices pulled back somewhat, stimulating downstream purchasing sentiment and releasing rigid demand. As of Thursday, June 4, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased by 10,900 mt WoW to 234,300 mt. Inventory-wise, total inventory increased by 85,500 mt compared to the same period last year when it was 148,800 mt. The SHFE copper 2607 contract closed at 105,150 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2607 contract at 93,300 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,429 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2607 contract and BC copper was -279, maintaining an inversion but narrowing notably from the previous day.

[Silicon Coal Prices Rose Slightly, Trading Game Sentiment Increased in Silicon Metal Market]: Supply side, northern silicon enterprises' operating rates were basically stable, while southwestern silicon enterprises' operating rates gradually improved. As the southwest successively entered the rainy season with electricity prices adjusted downward, a small number of silicon enterprises resumed production or increased operations, but the pace of production release was relatively slow. Cost side, although southwestern rainy season costs were periodically adjusted downward, current regional costs remained higher than those of northern silicon enterprises in production. Therefore, rising silicon coal raw material prices provided strong cost support below silicon metal prices, while prices above were constrained by the supply-demand relationship. Silicon metal was in a trading game phase, with attention on changes in market sentiment.