Lead concentrate TCs remained stable this week, but it was no longer common in the Chinese market for silver-bearing lead concentrates to be extremely hard to find. As silver prices remained in the doldrums and there were no bullish expectations for lead prices for the time being, smelters also expected a decline in by-product revenue. As a result, smelters no longer accepted bargaining over lower TC quotes. Demand for all types of raw materials, including lead concentrates and silver-bearing lead concentrates, was mainly driven by rigid demand, and actual transactions were relatively muted. Silver prices retreated from highs, but market traders still held certain expectations for a catch-up rally in silver prices over the medium and long term. At present, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with various silver contents remained stable, and neither mines nor smelters intended to adjust prices.

[Australian Typhoons Continued to Disrupt, and Import TCs Kept Falling]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly domestic SMM Zn50 TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index fell $6.02/dmt MoM to $5.23/dmt...

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

On March 13, 2026, China's copper smelting industry set a new historical record. According to SMM data, the imported copper concentrate index closed at -60.39 USD/dmt, officially breaking through the -60 USD level.

[Supply Disruptions Persist, Imported TCs Continued to Decline]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic ore was unchanged at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $4.13/dmt MoM to $11.25/dmt...

The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

On June 12th, Bloomberg reported that Teck Resources and Sumitomo Metal Mining are locked in a dispute over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in a major copper concentrate supply agreement. The disagreement, centered on shipments from Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines, has prompted the appointment of lawyers to select an industry expert as an independent referee. The clash highlights cracks in the traditional benchmark pricing system, after Antofagasta’s 2025 deal with Chinese smelters set TC/RCs at $21.25/2.125 cents, far below historical norms. Some Japanese buyers, including Sumitomo, have resisted adopting this benchmark amid sharply falling spot TC/RCs, which have recently turned negative. The situation underscores growing tension between well-funded Chinese smelters and financially pressured Western peers, with some smelters in the Philippines and Namibia already suspending operations.

The CSPT Working Group convened its first quarter general manager's office meeting in Shanghai on March 28, 2024. After discussion, the meeting reached the following five consensuses:

Yunnan Copper said that its copper concentrate TC/RC under long-term contracts in 2023 are higher than in 2022

SMM reported that the CSPT team held a general manager's office meeting for the first quarter of 2025 in Shanghai on the morning of March 31, and decide not to set a second quarter copper concentrate spot purchase guidance TC/RC.