China's March silver imports hit a record high, as retail investors' buying frenzy and concentrated stockpiling by the PV industry jointly pushed imports far above seasonal averages. Analysts warned that this explosive growth is unlikely to sustain. According to China's customs data, China imported approximately 836 mt of silver in March, nearly triple the past 10-year March average of approximately 306 mt. This import surge was driven by two overlapping demand forces: retail investors purchasing small-sized silver bars as substitutes for high-priced gold, and PV manufacturers rushing to stockpile ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate cancellation. China's silver prices were significantly higher than international benchmark prices driven by robust demand, prompting traders worldwide to ship silver to China for arbitrage, with Hong Kong serving as the primary transit channel. Explosive Imports Unlikely to Sustain However, import momentum already faced multiple cooling factors. Retail side, gold and silver prices retreated from highs set in January. The energy crisis triggered by the Iran war intensified market concerns over inflation, dragging down the performance of zero-yield precious metals, and the momentum of retail bandwagon buying also weakened accordingly. Industrial side, the PV industry consumed approximately one-fifth of global annual supply, with capacity highly concentrated in China. However, this demand pillar was also under pressure, as policy statements signaled curbing overcapacity in the PV industry. Meanwhile, silver prices remained at a relatively high level, potentially prompting the industry to shift toward cheaper base metals as substitutes for silver. Wu Zijie, an analyst at Shenzhen Jinrui Futures, stated that "explosive imports will certainly not continue," and future import flows will return to normal levels. He noted that given China is the world's largest silver producer, there is no basis for long-term imbalance in silver supply and demand.

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 18,502.18 mt, up 7.92% MoM and 122.45% YoY. China imported 7,294.49 mt of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar in March, up 9.25% MoM and 223.93% YoY. China imported 3,623.4 mt of tin ore and concentrates from Bolivia in March, up 65.07% MoM and 348.81% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Origin March 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Myanmar 7,294.49 9.25% 223.93% Bolivia 3,623.4 65.07% 348.81% DRC 2,645.93 -13.22% 9.07% Australia 1,569.89 18.68% 43.86% Nigeria 1,302.67 19.24% 18.03% Laos 396.28 165.29% 734.28% Venezuela 376.41 -4.88% 126.83% Rwanda 295.64 -11.49% - Malaysia 243 -45.35% 10.59% Kyrgyzstan 177.49 -23.14% - Brazil 174.57 -3.89% 693.57% Indonesia 94 3.05% 34.68% Russia 66.84 -88.49% - Vietnam 65.53 -73.33% -29.21% Colombia 46.78 -29.95% - Zambia 33.07 - 87.98% Thailand 26.5 310.92% - Namibia 26.01 -50.09% - South Africa 22.48 - - Uganda 11.93 - - Tanzania 8.15 -66.25% - Zimbabwe 1.12 - - Total 18,502.18 7.92% 122.45% Data source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's copper cathode imports in March 2026 totaled 279,368.28 mt, up 37.22% MoM and down 21.12% YoY. China imported 99,134 mt of copper cathode from the DRC in March, up 40.29% MoM and down 11.90% YoY. China imported 50,000.35 mt of copper cathode from Russia in March, up 161.09% MoM and down 31.48% YoY. Export side, China's copper cathode exports in March 2026 totaled 58,213.02 mt, down 25.59% MoM and down 14.40% YoY. China exported 20,773.82 mt of copper cathode to Taiwan, China in March, down 27.00% MoM and down 1.54% YoY. China exported 14,825.88 mt of copper cathode to Vietnam in March, up 324.68% MoM and up 109.54% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY DRC 99,134 40.29% -11.90% Russia 50,000.35 161.09% -31.48% Chile 22,176.40 -12.79% -50.96% Japan 16,813.32 149.84% 1.38% Kazakhstan 14,609.34 70.94% -27.94% Zambia 11,917.14 -48.13% -8.35% Australia 10,361.24 3,338.25% 179.50% Pakistan 8,398.21 14.35% 64.90% Myanmar 5,120.18 8.98% 278.21% Indonesia 5,019.44 340.72% 284.62% Peru 4,153.01 -22.79% -59.93% Uzbekistan 4,085.00 30.57% 44.14% Serbia 4,013.21 223.16% 71.66% Netherlands 3,492.23 - - South Africa 3,158.74 75.66% 93.03% UAE 2,332.17 -32.74% -82.42% Qatar 1,490.99 81.41% 2.66% Laos 1,240.29 149.66% 120.76% India 1,135.97 -17.24% 23.41% Spain 1,112.20 - 95.25% Poland 1,040.86 -65.70% -67.21% Belgium 991.46 - -63.55% South Korea 955.28 380.10% -74.44% Egypt 741.65 288.74% 486.40% Turkey 679.23 37.84% -65.17% Thailand 672.95 35.89% -22.71% Malaysia 613.67 -31.49% -74.16% Congo Republic 526.09 - 26.03% China 494.64 -93.81% -87.52% Morocco 393.22 -85.83% -34.82% Oman 344.97 0.02% 584.33% Georgia 328.85 192.31% 47.21% Mexico 306.63 -38.01% -85.20% Mongolia 266.98 -63.16% -86.27% Tajikistan 214.46 -36.44% 8.38% Taiwan, China 184.36 794.98% -51.82% Guinea 127.41 -29.09% -28.30% Sierra Leone 103.81 39.79% - Gabon 98.77 36.40% 113.83% Bolivia 84.3 1,045.38% -78.08% Canada 82.92 245.42% 63.55% Jordan 75.4 - -24.74% Mauritius 70.29 188.67% - Angola 50.48 -66.97% - Mozambique 48.2 - - Kenya 25 - - Brazil 23.48 - - Hong Kong, China 20.98 - 419,500.00% Germany 20.09 -40.76% 143.80% Finland 18.41 -38.81% - US 0.02 118.18% - Italy 0.02 - 15.00% Total 279,368.28 37.22% -21.12% Source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Taiwan, China 20,773.82 -27.00% -1.54% Vietnam 14,825.88 324.68% 109.54% Thailand 9,501.22 86.48% 99.85% South Korea 4,974.88 -79.95% -57.72% Malaysia 4,372.73 157.42% 631.26% Indonesia 1,403.09 -24.76% 99.96% India 1,202.46 -77.01% 9,249,569.23% Pakistan 548.46 171.61% 265.62% Bangladesh 504.81 25,140.40% - UAE 100.48 - - Tanzania 4.57 - - Hong Kong, China 0.61 - - UK 0.01 1,000.00% - Belgium 0.01 66.67% - Total 58,213.02 -25.59% -14.40% Source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM, April 20: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in March 2026 were approximately 255,000 mt, up 26.5% MoM and up 14.8% YoY. From January to March 2026, domestic cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled approximately 646,000 mt, up 10.6% YoY. Domestic primary aluminum exports in March were approximately 15,000 mt, up 45.9% MoM and up 65.4% YoY. Cumulative primary aluminum exports from January to March totaled approximately 38,000 mt, up around 82.3% YoY. Domestic net primary aluminum imports in March were 240,000 mt, up 25.4% MoM and up 12.7% YoY. Cumulative net primary aluminum imports from January to March were approximately 608,000 mt, up 7.9% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Primary aluminum imports by country: In March, 82.3% of total imports came from the Russian Federation, 5.8% from India, 4.7% from Indonesia, and 4.5% from Australia. Primary aluminum imports by trade mode: From January to March, the share of primary aluminum imports under Ordinary Trade was 4.0%, 1.3%, and 1.7% respectively, down 23.6, 27.2, and 21.3 percentage points YoY respectively. LME aluminum outperformed SHFE aluminum in price trends, and the SHFE/LME price ratio declined. Imports under Ordinary Trade decreased, and it cannot be ruled out that a large volume of bonded zone cargoes will be re-exported to other countries outside China going forward. According to SMM, long-term contract imports and some previously signed import orders in March were executed as scheduled. Combined with the arrival of in-transit cargoes, primary aluminum imports stayed high. However, from the current fundamentals perspective, there was a significant primary aluminum deficit outside China, the inflection point for domestic aluminum inventory had not yet arrived, and the loss on primary aluminum imports expanded to a maximum of 852.47 yuan/mt in April. Some imported primary aluminum cargoes are expected to be redirected or re-exported to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, and even Europe, the US, and other countries and regions. Overall, domestic net primary aluminum imports in 2026 are expected to decline YoY.

[SMM Steel] Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission (NTC) has extended anti-dumping duties on continuous casting steel billets from China at 24.04% following a second sunset review. The measure will remain effective for five years from June 22, 2025, covering semi-finished steel products under multiple HS codes. Originally imposed in 2017 and reviewed in 2022, the duty aims to protect domestic producers, while exemptions apply for export-oriented production and foreign-funded projects.

SMM April 20: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel declining. SHFE aluminum fell 1.49% and SHFE nickel fell 0.9%. The rest of the metals rose, with SHFE zinc up 0.69% and the others gaining less than 0.6%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.43%, while the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 1.31%. Additionally, the lithium carbonate front-month contract rose 2.6%, the silicon metal front-month contract rose 1.05%, and the polysilicon front-month contract hit the daily limit again during intraday trading, closing at 42,955 yuan/mt with a 9% gain. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 0.38% to 2,103.2. Ferrous metals all rose except stainless steel, which fell 0.47%. Hot-rolled coil, rebar, and iron ore all gained over 1% (hot-rolled coil 1.17%, rebar 1.24%, iron ore 1.16%). Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 2.77% and coke rose 2.27%. Overseas market, as of 15:07, all metals fell except LME nickel, which led the gains with a 1.36% rise. The rest declined, with LME copper leading the losses at 0.63%. Precious metals, as of 15:07, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.08% and SHFE silver rose 1.34%. Additionally, the platinum front-month contract fell 0.18% and the palladium front-month contract fell 0.18%. Market Data as of 15:07 Today Macro Front China: [NEA: Total Electricity Consumption Reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, Up 5.2% YoY, January-March] The National Energy Administration released March electricity consumption data. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 37.6 billion and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Unchanged: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Held Steady for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April LPR was announced: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan's Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Policy Is Here! First Batch Involves 22 Residential Projects] Recently, the Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program by the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a solution that systematically clears bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in bringing multiple real estate enterprises into the program: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities, while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US Dollar: As of 15:07, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.26. According to a CITIC Securities research report, US Fed Governor Miran and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously widely discussed "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and addressing other sources of reserve demand. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the paper estimates the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a certain degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Germany's March PPI month-on-month rate, Canada's March CPI month-on-month rate, and other data were to be released today. Also worth noting: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. Crude oil: As of 15:07, oil prices in both markets surged, with WTI up 6.42% and Brent up 5.9%. Iran had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices sharply higher. On the 19th local time, an Iraqi oil ministry official said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would block the export of nearly 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil over the next three days. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement on the 18th saying that, due to the US violating ceasefire commitments and failing to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, the Strait of Hormuz would be blocked starting that evening. (CCTV News) Gary Pedersen, head of trading house Gunvor, warned that the oil market was facing more turbulence as Middle East tensions collided with seasonal slowdown in crude oil demand, increasing the likelihood of further sharp and unpredictable fluctuations in crude oil prices. (Jin10 Data) The International Energy Agency forecast that global crude oil demand would decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in Q2, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC's forecast was relatively mild, projecting a daily decline of 500,000 barrels. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report noted that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw a further turning point. Although the first round of peace talks "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted optimistic sentiment in the market, despite subsequent reversals. This was largely in line with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, a complete loss of control over the medium term is not the base case scenario, as Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation serves neither side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. (Jin10 Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Data from the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 2,629,996.23 mt, up 13.84% MoM and up 9.99% YoY. China imported 820,975.96 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Chile in March, up 9.86% MoM and up 1.61% YoY. China imported 655,587.09 mt of copper ore and concentrates from Peru in March, up 33.96% MoM and up 17.12% YoY. Export side, China's exports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 441.66 mt, up 57,483.31% MoM and up 4,788.37% YoY. China exported 440.29 mt of copper ore and concentrates to Mongolia in March, up 204,684.65% MoM and up 44,028,600.00% YoY. China exported 0.63 mt of copper ore and concentrates to the UK in March, up 108.67% MoM and up 5,116.67% YoY. Below is a breakdown of import data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Origin Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Chile 820,975.96 9.86% 1.61% Peru 655,587.09 33.96% 17.12% Mongolia 216,179.71 8.99% 30.00% Russia 130,003.95 84.67% 120.85% Kazakhstan 113,192.78 1.84% -3.49% Mexico 110,475.43 -6.45% -0.58% Serbia 88,460.26 38.98% 68.17% DRC 67,621.60 66.76% 70.74% Ecuador 60,735.30 83.44% -13.98% Australia 53,948.73 25.39% 51.52% Canada 49,086.07 -25.93% 168.17% Brazil 47,986.63 -16.70% 99.48% Armenia 26,008.34 1.92% 51.56% Botswana 23,428.58 -25.88% -35.58% Oman 21,629.46 1,290.47% 587.34% Spain 21,091.23 -59.50% -79.07% Laos 20,138.62 74.01% -3.91% Saudi Arabia 14,005.64 -61.74% -74.34% Philippines 13,780.69 33.35% 916.20% Zambia 10,402.22 -2.43% 523.63% South Africa 10,120.44 8,000.50% 205.01% Eritrea 9,909.68 5.40% -68.35% Turkey 7,500.47 -16.77% -29.31% Morocco 6,694.51 317.57% 189.56% Pakistan 5,754.75 12.62% 1,086.79% UAE 4,527.43 285.35% - Iran 3,531.54 92.06% 2,207,112.50% Namibia 3,359.64 247.39% -8.90% Albania 2,334.52 0.50% 99.12% Dominican Republic 2,297.50 -19.65% -57.56% India 2,149.50 -56.08% 42,989,900.00% Mauritania 1,895.04 0% -71.28% Nicaragua 937.32 700.81% -4.92% Myanmar 893.12 182.94% -53.26% Zimbabwe 729.18 832.99% 458.03% Cambodia 556.34 94.91% - Congo Republic 491.01 117.10% -10.06% Bolivia 431.23 -82.07% 0.62% Colombia 363.69 -94.35% 169.39% Madagascar 308.2 -53.36% 83.45% Tanzania 131.99 -40.54% 73.23% Nigeria 131.36 366.97% 1,313,500.00% Malaysia 79.49 -99.75% 1,135,428.57% Thailand 75.38 - - Vietnam 54.54 -73.90% -83.73% Netherlands 0.07 195.65% 65.85% Romania 0.01 - -100.00% Total 2,629,996.23 13.84% 9.99% Data source: General Administration of Customs Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the website of China's General Administration of Customs: Destination Mar 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Mongolia 440.29 204,684.65% 44,028,600.00% UK 0.63 108.67% 5,116.67% Netherlands 0.45 156.00% 44,700.00% Belgium 0.21 994.74% 890.48% Australia 0.04 18.75% - Oman 0.01 - - Chile 0.01 0% - India 0.01 100.00% - Total 441.66 57,483.31% 4,788.37% Data source: General Administration of Customs

In March 2026, China’s refined copper imports totaled 234,600 mt, up 53.33% MoM but down 24.03% YoY. Exports stood at 58,200 mt, down 25.60% MoM and 14.40% YoY.

【SMM Steel】Abu Dhabi's Metal Park will launch a new cut-and-bend rebar facility in Q2 2026, adding 25,000-30,000 t/m of capacity (~10-12% of UAE monthly usage). The project supports large infrastructure/energy projects by providing precision-processed steel. Integrating storage/fabrication reduces on-site congestion. The platform uses a pay-as-you-go model, allowing scale without large upfront capital. Commissioning is underway; full ops expected within six months.

[Magnesium Market Continued to Weaken at the Start of the Week; Short-Term Low Gradually Emerging with Soft Landing Expected] The 99.90% magnesium ingot price in the main producing area was quoted at 16,950-17,050 yuan/mt today, down 50 yuan/mt from the earlier quote.