SMM Nickel News, April 2: Macro and market news: (1) On the evening of April 1 local time, Trump delivered a speech, claiming on his own that the military campaign against Iran had achieved a “rapid, decisive, and overwhelming victory.” The US’ core strategic objectives in the military campaign against Iran were “close to completion.” Trump also said that stronger firepower strikes against Iran would be carried out in the coming weeks. (2) US ADP employment increased by 62,000 in March, above market expectations of 40,000 and broadly flat from 63,000 in the previous month, indicating steady growth in US private-sector employment in March. Spot market: On April 2, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,650 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands were at -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated lower and closed the morning session at 133,870 yuan/mt today, down 0.87%. In the short term, tighter Indonesian policies and cost support have built a solid bottom for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand are capping upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

【SMM Steel】Mobarakeh Steel Co. said its facility sustained "another heavy attack" on Mar 31, the second since Feb 28. Affiliate Sefid Dasht Steel was also damaged. No precise production status was given. Sefid Dasht has 800,000 t/y capacity and supplies sponge iron to Mobarakeh. Before the attack, Iran expected the plants to resume operations soon.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is moving to sell alumina on the market as its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi faces significant damage and an extended shutdown following Iranian missile and drone strikes over the weekend.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Initial Signs of Geopolitical Peace Emerge, SHFE Tin Prices Rebound Amid Improved Market Sentiment]

Strikes on Middle East 'LNG' infrastructure are affecting long-term 'PPAs' and battery energy storage system ('BESS') economics, according to Swiss firm Pexapark. Lead analyst Nicolas Briet noted that supply risks from Qatar have tightened European fundamentals, visibly impacting 'PPA' valuations. A 10-year solar pay-as-produced 'PPA' in the UK saw a 19% fair value increase. Despite improved economics, 'PPA' transactions may remain slow due to buyer caution and rising equipment costs linked to higher energy prices. Conversely, 'BESS' is directly benefiting from increased intraday volatility and wider price spreads. Pexapark also reported 30 new 'PPA' deals in February 2026, the highest monthly volume since February 2024.

The most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 84,100 yuan/mt today. After the opening, its center maintained a fluctuating trend. After dipping to 83,880 yuan/mt in daytime trading, the center kept rebounding, and neared the session close it touched a high of 85,020 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 84,790 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. Open interest reached 6,122 lots, an increase of 419 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,404 lots, an increase of 1,577 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Iran released satellite images warning of strikes on US military early warning aircraft and attacked an aluminum plant linked to the US. Pakistan planned to promote Iran-US peace talks. The US had more than 50,000 troops stationed in the Middle East, and the Houthis continued striking Israeli targets. Although geopolitical conflicts occurred frequently, the overall macro situation saw no significant change. Coupled with some easing in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran having allowed vessels from multiple countries to pass, copper prices overall fluctuated rangebound. Fundamentally, imported cargoes continued arriving, while arrivals of domestic cargoes remained stable, leaving overall supply ample. Demand side, with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Monday, March 30, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 13.81% WoW from the previous Monday, with all regions continuing destocking. The SHFE copper 2605 contract on SHFE closed at 95,760 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 84,790 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 95,813 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -53 yuan/mt, indicating an inverted spread.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Closed Up 3.19%, with Middle East Geopolitical Risks and Low Inventory Supporting Prices]

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,157.5/mt and dipped to $12,106/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated upward to $12,246.5/mt. Later, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and finally closed at $12,141/mt, up 0.17%, with trading volume at 15,500 lots and open interest at 295,000 lots, down 991 lots from the previous trading day. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,080 yuan/mt and touched a low of 95,040 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then the center of copper prices gradually moved higher to 95,880 yuan/mt. Later, it fluctuated downward and finally closed at 95,490 yuan/mt, down 0.22%, with trading volume at 42,900 lots and open interest at 185,500 lots, down 1,897 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

This week, nickel prices first fell and then rose, moving sideways amid a tug-of-war between macro fluctuations and supply-side policy. Early in the week, affected by a stronger US dollar and risk-off sentiment across global commodities, LME nickel once fell below the key $17,000 level. It then rebounded on easing tensions in the Middle East and policy expectations that Indonesia planned to impose a nickel export tax. As of Friday's close, the weekly price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 3%, while the LME nickel 3M contract gained 2.4% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 138,030 yuan/mt this week, up 1,100 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium was 5,900 yuan/mt this week, down 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -600-400 yuan/mt. Nickel plate premiums fell notably this week, and sluggish demand led to poor trading in the spot market. On the macro front, geopolitical risks continued to weigh on market risk appetite this week. According to US media reports, the US Department of Defense was formulating a "decisive lethal strike" military plan against Iran, which could include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrikes. Although news of a ceasefire window had emerged earlier, risk-off sentiment did not truly fade. China's macro policy maintained a positive tone, and the pro-growth signals released at the Boao Forum boosted market confidence. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, with destocking of 500 mt WoW. China's social inventory was about 90,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war between "strong cost support" and "weak actual demand" in the short term. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt. Cost-floor support provided by Indonesian policy remains solid, but macro pressure and weak demand will limit upside room.

At first glance, the market reaction to the outbreak of war following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran appeared deeply counterintuitive.