[SMM Tin Morning Update: Mild PPI Lowered the Probability of a September Rate Hike to 32%; 430,000 Round Number Closed, Breaking Through for the First Time This Week]

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Solidly Advancing Carbon Peaking Actions] The main venue event for National Ecology Day 2026 was held yesterday in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Zhou Haibing, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that we must solidly advance carbon peaking actions, carry out comprehensive evaluation and assessment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in a scientific manner, accelerate adjustments and optimization of the industrial structure, energy structure, and transportation structure, and ensure the carbon peaking target is achieved on schedule. It is understood that the 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical and decisive phase for achieving the carbon peaking target. The “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peaking Action Plan” has laid out several major initiatives, including interprovincial power mutual support, clean substitution for coal consumption, energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industry, low-carbon and zero-carbon heating and cooling and green lighting, construction of zero-carbon transport corridors, and enhancement of foundational capabilities for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The overall targets are: by 2030, China’s CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17 compared with 2025, the share of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will reach 25, and the carbon peaking target will be achieved on schedule. 02 ★★ [In the Next 10 Days, South China May See the Most Precipitation; Next Week, the High-Temperature Zone in Jiangnan and South China Will Expand] As the remnant vortex of “White Dolphin” moves eastward into the sea, rainfall in east China and other areas will gradually weaken. However, the rain will not exit the stage; the remnant vortex will later move northward, leading to some strengthening of rainfall in the eastern part of north-east China. Tomorrow and the day after, there will be significant rainfall in eastern Liaoning, eastern Jilin, and eastern Heilongjiang. Next week, the subtropical high will strengthen again and extend westward, and China’s distribution of rain and heat will once again be controlled by it—South China on the southern side of the subtropical high will see heavy rainfall under the influence of a monsoon trough or low pressure; from Jiangnan to Huanghuai under the control of the subtropical high, hot and muggy weather will develop and increase in succession. Over the next 10 days, South China may be the area with the most precipitation in China. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory’s medium-term forecast, over the next 10 days, cumulative precipitation in Jiangnan, South China, south-west China, and the eastern and northern parts of north-east China and other areas will be 50–90 mm; in parts of the western Sichuan Basin, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan, it will be 100–150 mm, with localized areas along the southern coastal areas of South China exceeding 250 mm. In most of the above areas, precipitation will be 50% to 100% higher than the climatological average for the same period, and in some areas more than double. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [H1 Coal Supply Was Adequate; Energy Use Is Guaranteed for the Summer Peak] According to information from the China Coal Industry Association, in H1 this year, the national daily average production of raw coal by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 13.07 million mt, the second-highest level for the same period in history, and coal has continued to play its stabilizing role as the main energy source. At present, China has entered the peak period of energy use for summer peak-load support. Temperatures in most regions nationwide were higher than the average for the same period in normal years, and some regions experienced intermittent high-temperature heat waves. To proactively respond to extreme weather and ensure coal supply for summer peak-load support, the coal industry fully leveraged the advantages of large modern coal mines and intelligent coal mines, and nationwide coal production and supply remained stable and orderly. Experts said that in H2, China’s macro economy will continue to maintain steady and relatively rapid growth; “AI+” application scenarios will become increasingly widespread; energy use for big data and computing power will continue to increase rapidly, boosting sustained growth in energy consumption demand. Coal will still be the mainstay and an important backstop force for the secure and stable supply of energy nationwide. 02 ★★ [First-Time Homebuyers in Seoul, South Korea Hit a New High in More Than Four Years] A report showed that the number of first-time homebuyers in Seoul, South Korea reached a new high in four years and eight months. According to data released on the 16th by the Supreme Court of South Korea’s Real Estate Registration Information Plaza, a total of 7,552 homebuyers in Seoul completed ownership transfer registration for their first home (multi-family housing) last month. This was the highest level in four years and eight months since the heated housing market period in November 2021 (7,886 people). 03 ★★ [Minor Adjustment to Home-Swap Purchase Policies for Non-Shanghai Registered Residents and Overseas Individuals? Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center Hotline Responds] In response to market reports that Shanghai had updated the implementation guidelines related to home-swap purchases, on August 15, a reporter called the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center hotline “962269” for inquiries. Regarding home-swap purchases by residents without Shanghai household registration, hotline staff said that no new policy had been introduced. According to the hotline staff, a non-Shanghai registered resident household that sells its only property may swap for one home anywhere in the city; the property owner before and after the transaction must remain the same, and no social insurance or individual income tax payment certificates are required. This guideline has been implemented since May 28, 2024. For multiple homes, when a non-Shanghai registered resident household or an adult single person sells part of the properties under their name (i.e., having two or more homes under their name) and purchases a home again, the number and location of the homes purchased must match those of the homes sold—if a home outside the Outer Ring Road is sold, the purchase can only be made outside the Outer Ring Road; if a home inside the Outer Ring Road is sold, the purchase can only be made inside the Outer Ring Road, and submission of social insurance or individual income tax payment certificates is exempted. This guideline has been implemented since February 26, 2026. Regarding home-swap purchases by overseas individuals, hotline staff said that after an overseas individual sells all properties under their name in Shanghai, they may swap and purchase one home in the city, exempt from submitting a foreigner residence permit (work category), a local labor contract continuously valid for one year prior to the home purchase date, and social insurance and individual income tax payment certificates for one continuous year prior to the home purchase date, but they must still sign a self-occupancy commitment letter for overseas individuals purchasing a home. This methodology took effect on July 29, 2026. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [US Fed Has a 67.5% Probability of Keeping Rates Unchanged in September] According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 67.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike was 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 53.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp rate hike was 39.8% and that of a cumulative 50-bp rate hike was 6.8%. ⭕ [Iran Says It Has Reached an Agreement With Oman on a Passage Plan for the Strait of Hormuz] Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on August 15 local time that, despite US obstruction, talks between Iran and Oman were still progressing actively, and the two sides had reached an agreement on a passage plan for the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. ⭕ [PBOC: Broad Money (M2) Balance at Month-End July Was 35.551 Trillion Yuan, Up 7.7% YoY] PBOC data showed that at month-end July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 725.5 billion yuan. ⭕[Ministry of Emergency Management Deploys 13 Drainage Teams to Carry Out Drainage Operations in Zhoukou, Henan] To assist with drainage work in the urban area of Zhoukou, Henan, the Ministry of Emergency Management deployed a total of 13 drainage forces from Henan, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Hunan, and other places, including the Ministry of Emergency Management’s Engineering Emergency Rescue Center for Natural Disasters (China Aneng), eight national work-safety emergency rescue drainage forces, the Shaanxi mobile drainage team, as well as XCMG Group, Jiaozuo Huayu, Hunan Diwo, and others, with a total drainage capacity of about 220,000 m³/hour, rushing urgently to Zhoukou, Henan. All of the above rescue forces arrived by 9:00 a.m. on the 16th and were put into drainage operations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the US has violated the Iran-US memorandum of understanding and that hostilities have resumed. He said that the so-called “extension of the ceasefire agreement” does not exist, that Iran has no intention of extending the ceasefire agreement with the US side, and that it has not yet decided whether to resume negotiations with the US. He also stressed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can only be restored if the US meets the relevant conditions. In addition, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a “shipping map,” which is part of a broader agreement to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

This week nickel prices exhibited a weak pattern overall, with the price center continuing to shift lower. At the start of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) edged up, supported by an unexpectedly weak US July nonfarm payrolls report and a softer US dollar index. Subsequently, however, expectations of looser Indonesian supply built, and SHFE nickel ground lower for four consecutive trading days, with losses accelerating on Friday. The contract closed at about 127,040 yuan/mt, down 1.29% on the day, after touching an intraweek low of 126,720 yuan/mt; it fell about 2.6% WoW. The LME nickel 3M contract weakened in tandem, with the latest close at $16,675/mt, down about 1.8% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price this week was 129,110 yuan/mt, down 2,250 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan refined nickel premiums held steady in the range of 1,250-1,300 yuan/mt. Mainstream electrodeposited nickel premiums/discounts were between -200 and 500 yuan/mt, with discounts narrowing somewhat during the week. Spot market trading recovered slightly amid the continued decline in futures this week, and downstream users’ willingness to restock improved from previous levels. On the macro front, cooling US inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials offset each other this week. US July unadjusted CPI rose 3.4% YoY and core CPI rose 2.5% YoY, both in line with market expectations, weakening investor expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. However, Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the Fed may need to raise rates several times to bring inflation back to its 2% target, and the US dollar index briefly touched a two-week high, weighing on nonferrous metal valuations. On the geopolitical front, US-Iran tensions flared up again—US forces opened fire in the Gulf of Oman on a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade against Iran. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen as long as the US does not accept its terms. However, with the concentrated arrival of sulfur cargoes, production schedules at some Indonesian HPAL projects recovered, easing the earlier marginal pressure from tight sulfur supply. On the domestic front, China’s July CPI rose 0.5% YoY and core CPI rose 0.9% YoY, while overall CPI fell 0.1% MoM. The central bank released its Q2 2026 monetary policy implementation report, stressing that it would continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies in a timely manner, and strengthen countercyclical adjustment. On the inventory front, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory this week was about 1,400 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory was about 134,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a weak window where expectations of looser supply, wavering macro sentiment, and high inventories are intertwined. On the downside, losses on electrodeposited nickel production provide cost support, while the upside is capped by off-season demand and inventories. Prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade mainly within 124,000-130,000 yuan/mt next week.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.

August 13, 2026 For Citi, silver remains the classic hedge against gold. In a recent client note, the analysts confirm their optimistic price targets of US$75 per ounce over the next zero to three months and US$90 over the next six to twelve months – based on the current price of around US$65. Investment flows are overtaking industrial demand as a price driver Citi expects investor demand to continue to recover and to have a greater impact on price trends in future than industrial demand. Two macro factors are particularly crucial in this regard: a possible easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less restrictive stance by the US Federal Reserve. Whilst higher real yields and a strong US dollar have recently weighed on silver , the bank estimates that these factors are likely to ease between September and December. In this environment, silver – with its typically higher beta – should follow the trend set by gold and react particularly sensitively to any geopolitical de-escalation. At the same time, the focus is shifting in the short term from industry towards capital flows. In the solar sector, a structural slowdown is emerging due to material savings and the rise of the more efficient back-contact cell technology (BC). BC technology could become the standard by 2028. Indian tailwind meets structural market deficit The silver market continues to receive strong support from India, where a local premium of around 7 per cent highlights the high level of demand. Citi expects an additional surge in demand here ahead of the upcoming festival and wedding season in the fourth quarter. Despite the headwinds from the solar sector, the bank expects the global silver market to remain in deficit until at least 2027. Key growth drivers such as artificial intelligence, 5G and electric mobility are largely offsetting the weaker demand from the solar sector. For investors, this results in an attractive mix of macroeconomic recovery, rising investor demand and a persistent structural shortfall. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-a-silver-rally-on-the-cards-citi-confirms-target-of-ususd90

SMM News on August 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals in the domestic market declined. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, and SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged down slightly. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Most ferrous metals rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9%, and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: Spot: mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, alongside the exit the market of some large-discount cargoes and a narrowing import price spread... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day; net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, it recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos, and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, it recorded net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. The US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and coupled with falling oil prices, the market further bet that the US Fed would not raise rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) The US July PPI came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed the consumer price data, which showed inflation was slowing down, further confirming signs that the early-war energy shock continued to fade. However, the recent renewed escalation in the Middle East raised concerns about sticky inflation. Before the next policy decision in mid-September, US Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. The PPI also includes several components that the US Fed watches closely because they feed into its preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Signals from these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees posted the biggest increase in more than a year, and hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through September was 65.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 34.8%. The probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through October was 50.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 41.8% and a cumulative 50-bp hike was 8.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Speculative investors increasingly bet that the RBA will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implied about a 45% probability of a 25-bp hike by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the ASX derivatives market saw activity rise to the highest level in more than three months on the day, indicating stronger speculative interest. These bets suggested the market was increasingly skeptical that the RBA’s tightening cycle has ended. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, traders will continue to watch upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the following data were due to be released: China’s July total electricity consumption (YoY; TBD) and China’s July total electricity consumption (TBD); the US July retail sales (MoM), the preliminary US August 1-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories (MoM), and the preliminary US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; France’s final July CPI (MoM); the eurozone revised Q2 GDP (YoY), the final Q2 seasonally adjusted employment (QoQ), and the eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance; Canada’s June wholesale sales (MoM), among others. In addition, China’s refined oil products will enter a new pricing adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. The IEA and OPEC successively lowered their demand expectations, while tensions around Iran remained elevated but did not further escalate, capping oil price gains. Pressure in the refined products market was more severe, with the US diesel crack spread nearing $100 per barrel, close to the peak seen in early March when the US-Iran conflict first erupted. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that over the past week, the daily average crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 9 million barrels, higher than most industry estimates, and the market faced significant uncertainty in assessing the actual size of the supply shortfall. Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Research at Bank of America, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventory is depleted, price fluctuations are bound to amplify sharply, and demand will then be forced to contract. 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On the macro front , copper prices rose first and then fell this week, with the price center lifting WoW. US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, significantly weaker than expected; however, CPI fell to 3.4% YoY and core CPI declined to 2.5%, with inflation largely in line with market expectations, easing concerns about inflation exceeding expectations. In addition, the slowdown in US July PPI growth exceeded expectations, and traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate hike in September, with the latest probability at 32%; LME copper bottomed out. Domestically, the People's Bank of China said it would strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, promptly plan and introduce incremental policies, and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, providing some support to market sentiment. Geopolitically, US-Iran negotiations and arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to swing back and forth, with all parties sending different signals on ceasefire deadlines, safe shipping routes and control of the strait. The situation in the Middle East remained highly uncertain, prompting copper prices to fluctuate at high levels. As of 9:00 a.m. Beijing time on August 14, 2026, LME copper touched a weekly high of $14,262/mt, then fell to a low of $13,955/mt, down $307/mt from the high, a decline of about 2.15%; the most-traded SHFE copper contract touched a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, then rose to a high of 108,740 yuan/mt, up 1,610 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 1.50%. Fundamentals side , as of August 13, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 2,200 mt from last Monday to 116,700 mt, and total inventories were 8,900 mt lower than the 125,600 mt recorded in the same period last year. Domestic inventories remained at relatively low levels. Supply side, typhoon weather briefly affected cargo flows in east China at the start of the week; as of August 14, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was 11,615 lots, equivalent to 58,000 mt of metal content; over the same period, registered copper warrants on the SHFE stood at 27,200 mt, and potential deliverable volume was about 2.1 times warrant volume. Open interest in nearby contracts remained significantly higher than current registered warrants; combined with the upcoming delivery, this widened inter-month backwardation and lifted position-rolling costs for suppliers. Suppliers showed greater willingness to sell for cash, boosting spot supply in circulation. Of these, high-quality copper supply remained relatively limited, while non-registered copper supply was ample, and brand differentiation continued. Import side, the nearby LME backwardation structure widened, while the SHFE/LME price ratio for imports weakened; downstream purchase willingness remained low, and actual market deals were sluggish. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season combined with high copper prices meant downstream users still mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions showed no significant improvement. For secondary copper, tax-inclusive supply tightened and invoice costs rose; scrap utilization enterprises pushed for lower prices, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stayed high. Looking ahead to next week , on the macro front, US employment data weakened significantly, CPI and PPI pointed to easing inflation pressures, market expectations for a September rate hike continued to decline, and expectations for domestic incremental policy will also continue to support copper prices. If US economic data strengthen again and the US Fed sends further hawkish signals, renewed rate hike expectations and a stronger US dollar will pressure copper prices. Fundamentals side, COMEX inventories continued to increase, while LME inventories and deliverable stocks continued to decline; supply outside the US tightened, supporting LME copper. In China, after delivery of the SHFE copper 2608 contract ends, nearby open interest pressure will ease and the inter-month backwardation will gradually narrow; domestic copper production and imported arrivals will increase, and combined with the consumption off-season and high copper prices, upside room for SHFE copper will be limited. In the short term, fundamentals will dominate the divergence between SHFE and LME, while macro expectations will mainly provide bottom support for copper prices. Overall, LME copper is expected to trade at $13,950-$14,150/mt next week, and the most-traded SHFE copper contract is expected to trade at 107,000-108,500 yuan/mt. Support for LME copper is stronger than for SHFE copper; LME copper is expected to rise, and SHFE copper will follow with modest gains, with LME outperforming SHFE overall.

Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, a route carrying roughly 5.14 million tonnes of primary aluminium annually, about 75% of the region's total production, have damaged major Gulf smelters including EGA's Al Taweelah near Abu Dhabi (alumina output nearly halved to 602,000 tonnes in H1 2026) and Aluminium Bahrain, pushing global prices from around $2,500 to nearly $4,000 per tonne over the past year; the disruption lands at a precarious moment for the US, which has lost much of its domestic smelting capacity to rising energy costs, including the demolition of the last Intalco smelter and halted production at Hawesville, while demand holds near 12 million tonnes a year and Gulf shipments, averaging about 2 million tonnes annually, expose Washington's reliance on external suppliers for a metal now central to a Trump administration national security push covering 12 critical metals, even as a US-Gulf plan to revive domestic alumina production has stalled amid the same high energy costs that hollowed out earlier capacity.