Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, touched a high of $1,981.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward; it probed a low of $1,960.5/mt during the European session, then rose in late trading to close at $1,977.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 16,635 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, forming a small bullish candlestick. On the macro front: CME Group: Plans to launch single-stock futures this summer. US Fed—①Hammack: Economic outlook is positive, inflation remains high, no urgent need for interest rate cuts this year. ②Logan: Adopts a "cautiously optimistic" stance on the effectiveness of current interest rate policy, more concerned about inflation. US December retail sales month-on-month recorded 0%, below the median forecast of 0.4%, previous value 0.60%. According to the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, the European Commission accepted Volkswagen's price commitments for China-made pure electric vehicles. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued implementation opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the bidding sector. Li Qiang: Reasonably develop rare earth resources, actively promote breakthroughs in key core technologies. The central bank released the China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025: Continue to implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy. : Market circulation cargoes were limited in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, coupled with most logistics being suspended, suppliers' quoting enthusiasm significantly decreased, with a few quoting following the market, mainly cargoes self-picked up from production site. Quotations for mainstream origin primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters awaited the holiday, quotations were scarce, a few secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were around parity ex-works. Additionally, most downstream enterprises had halted production, some operating enterprises were also in the final stage, spot order procurement basically stopped, and transactions were rare in the spot market. Inventory side: On February 10, LME lead inventory was flat from the previous day at 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five areas rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: Enterprises across the lead industry chain successively entered the holiday period, trading activity significantly decreased. Most primary lead suppliers completed clearing inventory last week, spot order quotations were scarce; many secondary lead smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, most enterprises suspended quotations. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end final stage, stockpiling targets were completed, and inquiry willingness was low. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics and transportation have tightened, and the spot market is experiencing light trading activity. Overall, the impact of fundamentals on lead price trends before the holiday has weakened, with attention turning to fluctuations in overseas markets that may affect lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

The US job market and inflation have both cooled down. In the US, initial jobless claims last week were higher than expected, while continuing claims surged to the highest level since the end of 2021. The US May PPI rose 0.1% MoM, a mild increase that fell short of expectations, adding new evidence of "further slowdown in inflation". Traders have once again fully priced in expectations for two US Fed interest rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September. Following the data release, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the US dollar touching a three-year low, spot gold rising, and US stock futures paring losses. Market attention will now turn to the $22 billion auction of 30-year US Treasuries to observe whether investors will shy away from such long-term bonds amid a backdrop of expanding fiscal deficits. Below are the trends of core assets: The three major US stock indices fell slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.36%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%. European stocks rebounded slightly in tandem with US stocks. German stocks are now down about 0.8%, after earlier falling more than 1.3%. South Korean stocks have risen for seven consecutive sessions. Israel's TA-35 index once fell about 1.7%, marking its biggest drop in two months. The US dollar index once fell more than 1%, the euro rose more than 1.2%, the British pound rose about 0.5%, and the yen appreciated about 1%. US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year and 10-year yields once falling more than 8 basis points. Spot gold extended gains to more than 1%, while spot silver nearly erased earlier losses of more than 1.7%. Both US crude and Brent crude fell more than 1.6%. US inflation remained mild in May, indicating that current tariffs have not significantly pushed up consumer prices. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week, waiting to observe the impact of Trump's policies on the economy. In the stock market, after the release of PPI and employment data, US stock futures pared losses in pre-market trading. At the start of US trading, the three major indices fell slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.36%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%. After the S&P 500 rebounded more than 20% from its April low, trading activity in the stock market began to show signs of fatigue. Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Bilibili down about 1%. Most tech stocks also fell, with Tesla down about 1%. CureVac rose about 35% after reports that BioNTech would acquire the biotech company for $1.25 billion to boost its cancer business. Oracle's shares rose 8.2% to their highest level since January 22. Boeing's shares fell by approximately 5% following the first air crash involving a Boeing 787 aircraft. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell below 98, dropping more than 1% to a three-year low after the PPI release, before narrowing its losses to less than 0.8%. Following the PPI data, the euro surged more than 1.2% at one point and is now up over 0.8%. The UK economy experienced its most severe contraction in 18 months, with expectations for an interest rate cut soaring. The British pound fell by approximately 0.2% at one point. After the PPI data release, it rose more than 0.5% at one point and is now up about 0.4%. In the bond market, US Treasury yields plummeted significantly. After the PPI data release, yields on both 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries fell more than 8 basis points at one point. In the commodities market, spot gold surged more than 1.1% after the PPI data release, before narrowing its gains to less than 0.9%. Spot silver turned positive, having previously fallen approximately 1.7%, and is now down about 0.2%. Both WTI and Brent crude are now down more than 1.5%. Catalyzed by news of US-Iran tensions, oil prices surged 5% on Wednesday, only to pull back on Thursday. According to Global Times , Iran has threatened to attack US military bases, and the US expects Iran to retaliate against certain US military bases in Iraq. Oman has confirmed that the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks will be held on Sunday.

Today, gold stocks continued their downward trend. As of press time, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), and Shandong Gold (01787.HK) fell by 6.41%, 4.65%, 3.70%, and 1.83%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks In terms of news, on May 28 local time, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the "Emancipation Day" tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, constituted an ultra vires act and issued a permanent injunction. The Court of International Trade, located in Manhattan, New York, stated that the US Constitution grants the US Congress exclusive authority to regulate trade with other countries, and that the emergency powers claimed by the President to protect the US economy do not override these authorities. The lawsuit was filed by the Center for Justice and Democracy, a US non-profit, non-partisan litigation organization, on behalf of five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first major legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy. This ruling significantly alleviated market concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions, causing US stock futures to rise in response, while gold, as a safe-haven asset, faced selling pressure. As of press time, COMEX gold fell by 1% to $3,289.1. Note: Performance of COMEX gold How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? CITIC Futures pointed out that although recurring trade frictions may support gold's short-term fluctuation upward, factors such as the delay in the US Fed's first rate cut and the absence of a US debt credit risk outbreak make it difficult for gold prices to achieve a breakthrough rally. Jinrui Futures believes that after the postponement of Trump's tariff implementation, the market has already digested the worst of the negative news, and technical indicators suggest that gold prices need to undergo a period of consolidation with reduced volatility. Goldman Sachs, however, goes against the trend by recommending a long-term increase in gold allocation, citing rising institutional credibility risks in the US and sustained central bank gold-buying demand.

In April, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% YoY, marking the third consecutive month of slower-than-expected growth and reaching its lowest level since February 2021. Despite this, the impact of tariffs has yet to fully materialize, and businesses may be digesting inventories. On Tuesday, May 13, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April CPI data: CPI increased by 2.3% YoY (expected: 2.4%, previous: 2.4%); CPI increased by 0.2% MoM (expected: 0.3%, previous: -0.4%); Core CPI increased by 2.8% YoY, the slowest pace since the inflation surge in spring 2021 (expected: 2.8%, previous: 2.8%); Core CPI increased by 0.2% MoM (expected: 0.3%, previous: 0.1%). From a structural perspective, goods prices have just returned to the inflation zone (up 0.1% YoY), while services inflation continues to decline. However, core services inflation increased on a MoM basis. Breaking it down further, the so-called "supercore CPI" (services excluding housing) fell to 3.01% YoY, the lowest level since December 2021. Housing costs remain a key driver of inflation, while food prices have declined significantly. According to the CPI report, housing costs once again accounted for more than half of the increase, with the index rising by 0.3% in April. Despite a sharp decline in oil prices, the energy index still increased by 0.7%, primarily due to rising natural gas and electricity costs. Among other common inflation expectations, motor vehicle insurance increased by 0.6% MoM and 6.4% YoY in April. The household furnishings and operations index increased by 1%. However, prices for major imported goods such as furniture and appliances have risen. Airline tickets, used cars, and clothing prices have declined. Airline ticket prices were among the biggest decliners, falling by 2.8% from March, possibly reflecting the demand slowdown that airline executives have been warning about. Overall clothing prices fell by 0.2%, with men's shirts and sweaters dropping by 2.8%. Food prices fell by 0.1%, with food at home (groceries) declining by 0.4%, the largest drop since September 2020. Items contributing to the decline included meat/poultry/fish and eggs, breakfast cereal, rice, and bakery products. Among these, egg prices recorded their largest decline since 1984. Recently, an avian influenza outbreak in the US has caused egg prices to surge. The decline in frozen fruits and vegetables was the largest on record, with a 3% drop in the month. New car prices remained unchanged, which differed from the previously anticipated price increases due to tariff impacts. Traders continued to bet that the US Fed would cut interest rates twice by the end of 2025. Tariff Shadow: Potential Risks Amid Short-Term Calm Although the Trump administration's tariff policies were widely expected to drive up inflation, companies may still be digesting large inventories and have not yet started to raise prices across the board. According to the Ministry of Commerce , China and the US each canceled additional tariffs totaling 91% and suspended the implementation of 24% retaliatory tariffs. However, US importers still face high trade costs and are concerned that tariffs may rise again after the suspension period ends. Analysts believe that this 90-day grace period may imply that price increases will be relatively mild. However, according to Bloomberg research, if congestion occurs at ports during the restocking period, it could actually lead to a faster rise in CPI. Ali Jaffery of CIBC Capital Markets warned that even if the tariff policy is suspended, it may still affect prices in a timely manner: "Tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact this month, as it is the first month of the government's global tariff regime. Companies also have ways to remain patient with healthy inventories and high profit margins. Current tariff levels are still a significant step up from where they were before, and there may be some pass-through, although it may be spread out over a longer period." Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, believes that core inflation is currently at its best: "Core goods prices have not yet reflected the impact of tariff hikes since February, while service inflation continues to ease gradually. The retrospective three-month core inflation rate has fallen below 3%. However, service inflation still looks quite stubborn, and car prices have started to rise again. As inventories of imported goods before the tariff hikes are depleted, core goods inflation may rebound in the coming months." Market Reaction Following the data release, the US dollar index fell by about 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.45; US stock futures rose in the short term, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.4%; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell in the short term and is now at 4.455%; spot gold showed relatively little fluctuation in the short term and is now at $3,240 per ounce.

[SMM Analysis: US Dollar Index Surges Above 109, Non-US Currencies Weaken Collectively] According to CNN on January 8, Trump is considering declaring a "national economic emergency" in the US to provide legal grounds for imposing substantial tariffs on allies and competitors.

This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

his is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.