[SMM Nickel Flash] March 17 News. Supply side, some smelters held firm on quotations, but amid the futures decline and stainless steel finished product prices coming under pressure, some traders feared buying at elevated levels. Demand side, terminal demand remained weak and struggled to accept high prices for stainless steel finished products. Meanwhile, the cost advantage of steel scrap widened, and steel mills' willingness to procure high-grade NPI turned sluggish again.

As of March 17, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 38.64%, up 3.26% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 39.87%, up 10.53% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 23,500 mt WoW.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

[SMM Daily Review: Weak End-User Demand and Fear of High Prices Weighed on the Market, with High-Grade NPI Prices Under Pressure in the Short Term] March 17 News: SMM's upstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI was 2.85, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI was 1.6, down 0.03 MoM.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.

SMM Steel, February 24 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week reached 302,700 mt, up 50.90% WoW. By market:

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated Downward After Opening in the Night Session, and Spot Transactions Were Relatively Sluggish]

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated, Rising First and Then Falling, While Spot Quotes Edged Lower and Transactions Recovered SMM News, March 17: SS futures moved sideways. During the day, SS futures rose first and then fell, overall maintaining a sideways movement pattern, and closed at 14,155 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively strong in the morning, affected by the previous cuts in guidance prices by major stainless steel mills, trader quotes still edged slightly lower than yesterday. However, market sentiment had stabilized somewhat, and amid the price pullback, both inquiries and transactions increased to some extent. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,220 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" began, the stainless steel market entered a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering. Recently, activity in inquiries and purchases increased markedly, but stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement was still mainly driven by rigid demand, and the full bustle of the peak season had yet to emerge, ...

[China Iron Ore Brief Comment: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in Tangshan Might Have Some Room to Move Higher] Iron ore concentrates prices in Tangshan were relatively stable today, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade dry-basis iron ore concentrates including tax at 970-980 yuan/mt. The intensity of environmental protection inspections weakened, and steel mills as well as ore beneficiation gradually resumed production, but producers turned cautious in their operations, market inquiries were not active, and beneficiation plants considered costs as well as inventory