[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Steel] On March 30, 2026, the European Commission officially launched a safeguard investigation into imports of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), as well as transformer laminations and cores. Unlike standard steel products, these were previously excluded from existing EU safeguard measures. The investigation aims to determine if a surge in imports is causing or threatening "serious injury" to EU domestic producers, marking a significant expansion of the EU's trade defense policy in the energy sector.

On March 27, 2026, the WTO Committee on Safeguards released a safeguard notification submitted by the EU delegation. On March 27, 2026, the European Commission issued a notice initiating a safeguard investigation into imported grain-oriented electrical steel products (Grain-oriented Electrical Steel). This case involved products under EU CN (Combined Nomenclature) codes 72251100, 72261100, and 85049013. Unless otherwise extended (by up to two months), the final determination will be made within nine months from the date of initiation. Interested parties shall register to respond within 15 days from the date of publication of this notice and submit questionnaire responses within 21 days.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Uncertainty Coupled With Just-in-Time Demand Support Kept Stainless Steel Spot and Futures Fluctuating SMM News, March 30: SS futures maintained a fluctuating trend. As macro news continued to cause disruptions, the market struggled to find a clear direction, making it difficult to change the fluctuating pattern in futures. As of the midday close, prices stood at 14,360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, spot stainless steel transactions were mostly driven by just-in-time demand, with limited fluctuations in market quotations, and traders generally adopted a strategy of holding prices steady for shipments. Although current stainless steel prices still had some cost support, heavy macro uncertainty fostered strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; to avoid price fluctuations, downstream players mostly made just-in-time procurement. Despite solid underlying just-in-time demand during the peak season, fundamental factors such as supply and demand and costs were still unlikely to dominate stainless steel price trends in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract maintained a fluctuating trend. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 105-305 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious, with end-user enterprises showing little willingness to stockpile, and purchases were mostly made through restocking as needed...

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Steel] The IndiaGreen Steel Coalition (IGSC) stated that India must strengthen its domestic scrap collection and processing infrastructure to support the transition toward secondary steelmaking. India currently consumes around 41 mt of scrap, accounting for 23% of crude steel production, while demand could exceed 200 mt by 2047 as scrap use targets rise to 50%. However, a potential 40–50 mt supply gap may increase reliance on imports, making scrap a strategic resource for India’s decarbonization and green steel transition.

[SMM Steel] India’s Steel Ministry has flagged LPG supply shortages impacting steel plants and conveyed industry concerns to the Petroleum Ministry. Supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and prioritization of household consumption have reduced industrial LPG availability. Steelmakers are seeking alternative propane supplies, including from Russia, to maintain operations, while shortages may also affect key inputs such as nitric acid, lime, and ammonia used in stainless steel production.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With Cost Support Kept Spot Stainless Steel Stable SMM News on March 27: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Uncertainty remained high around news related to geopolitical conflicts, and futures were still likely to maintain a fluctuating trend. As of the midday close, the quote stood at 14,395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in SS futures, downstream transaction demand for rigid needs had been largely released at the beginning of the week. At present, the arbitrage window in futures had closed, and spot stainless steel transactions pulled back accordingly. Stainless steel mills were currently operating at losses, and with cost support, mills still showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while spot prices mostly remained stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,355 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 165-365 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the Wuxi quote was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-users lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was still mainly driven by restocking based on immediate needs. The brisk trading pattern typical of the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures...

Global crude steel production declined by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2026, dropping to 141.8 million metric tons, according to data from the World Steel Association. However, production outside of the largest Asian markets showed strong localized growth, driven by robust domestic demand and infrastructure spending. India surged ahead with a 7.7% year-on-year increase to reach 13.6 million tons, while the United States recorded a 5.8% jump to 6.5 million tons. Germany also demonstrated a noticeable recovery, pushing its national steel output up by 4.8% to 2.8 million tons for the month