[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal offers are at 2,050 yuan/mt. For coking coal, recently the resumption of production at mines in Qinyuan County has been slow, and some mines have further cut production to varying degrees after resuming operations. Coking coal supply remains tight. However, downstream buyers are showing fear of high prices, with sales of some high-priced coal types turning sluggish. Online auctions have seen a marked increase in failed lots. In the short term, the coking coal market may start to stabilize. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenched) is 2,090 yuan/mt. Regarding news, coke enterprises in various regions have initiated the tenth round of coke price increases, to be effective from 00:00 on July 6, 2026. In terms of supply, the ninth round of coke price increases have been implemented, leaving most coke producers profitable and with moderate production enthusiasm. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and traders are actively selling, resulting in an increase in coke supply. On the demand side, finished steel prices at steel mills have been drifting lower, and steel mill profits have further narrowed, prompting mills to start cutting hot metal production. With hot metal production expected to decline further, rigid demand for coke is weakening. Overall, market sentiment has weakened. In the short term, the coke market may be generally stable with a slight rise, while the tenth round of price increases may face some bargaining. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

[Brazil] This week, Brazilian steel mills cut sheets & plates prices to stimulate sales, with the domestic HRC price index falling 29.8 USD/tonne to 701.6–759.2 USD/tonne. Meanwhile, the import market was also weakening, with HRC import prices dropping 30 USD/tonne to 620–660 USD/tonne, and hot-dip galvanized import prices plunging 90 USD/tonne to 760–820 USD/tonne. However, due to Brazil's 25% import tariff and concessions from domestic steel mills, buyers held a cautious wait-and-see attitude toward seaborne resources.

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 grade: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,700-11,700 yuan/mt Spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel edged higher this week, with moderate trading activity in the market. Following the full implementation of earlier price hike policies by steel mills, the market digestion pace remained smooth. Traders held a strong sentiment to hold prices firm, pushing the center of spot quotations slightly higher. Demand side, just-in-time procurement by transformer and power equipment enterprises remained normalized. While end-users restocked in batches as needed, some enterprises locked in forward raw materials in advance, releasing a small amount of restocking demand, providing sufficient just-in-time demand support. Supply side, production pace at various steel mills was stable, with mainstream specification resources being released normally. Overall supply was ample, with no significant pressure from either inventory buildup or rapid destocking. Looking ahead, mainstream steel mills still show willingness to hold prices firm. Additionally, with power grid investment under the "15th Five-Year Plan" ramping up, orders from UHV and data center substation projects continue to be released, and medium and long-term downstream demand expectations continue to improve. Overall, spot prices lack downward momentum in the near term, supported by both raw material costs and terminal orders. Next week, the spot market for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel is expected to maintain a generally stable with slight rise trend. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content belonging to this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, and other requests, please contact us. Without permission, the above content may not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties or licensed for use by third parties in any form. Otherwise, once discovered, Shanghai Metals Market will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to requiring the assumption of contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

In yesterday's [SMM Analysis] EU Steel Tariff Wall Doubles to 50%: Reconstructing the New Quota System & In-Depth Analysis of 1A HRC, SMM deeply analyzed the brutal allocation logic of the EU's new 18.35 million tonnes quota. When the "50% tariff wall" and the "melting and pouring" rules completely block traditional tax-free export paths, the global steel supply chain is undergoing a forced reshuffle. Today, we shift our perspective to the ripple effects and macro-level forecasts of this storm.

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Daily Briefing] Coking Coal Market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen offers at 2,050 yuan/mt. In coking coal, some mines in Shanxi are still under safety supervision, limiting the release of coking coal production. However, steel prices have weakened, downstream sentiment is cautious, mostly purchasing as needed, some high-priced coal varieties saw weak transactions, the overall failure rate of online auctions gradually increased, and market participants' wait-and-see sentiment has noticeably increased. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching is 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of news, market rumors that coke prices will undergo the 10th round of increase, effective from 00:00 on July 6, 2026. Supply side, coke producers' profits have recovered, some producers significantly increased production enthusiasm, and coke supply has increased somewhat. Demand side, steel prices have continued to pull back, steel mills' profitability is poor, while the off-season impact is intensifying, some steel mills already have production cut maintenance plans, cautious about coke procurement. In summary, market sentiment has cooled somewhat, and the short-term coke market is likely to run generally stable with a slight rise. [SMM Steel]

According to SMM statistics, both mill inventory and social inventory experienced varying degrees of buildup. Total construction steel inventory reached 8.2329 million mt, up 213,600 mt WoW (up 2.66% WoW), further intensifying inventory pressure.

[Thailand] Recently, the Thai hot-rolled galvanized steel market has been deeply dragged down by traditional off-season factors, with overall transaction performance remaining sluggish and transaction prices showing a pronounced month-on-month decline trend. In terms of pricing and competition, the market has been strongly impacted by low-priced zinc-aluminum-magnesium coated steel orders. According to SMM survey, their offer levels have been pushed down to 585-590 USD/tonne, causing diversion and a price collapse for normal hot-rolled galvanized steel export channels and pricing. In the short term, the off-season effect is expected to continue to overshadow the market, with hot-rolled galvanized steel price weakness difficult to reverse; a substantive market recovery may have to wait until August and September, when the off-season gradually ends and the demand side may finally see more evident improvement and signs of recovery.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal is quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, the resumption of production at mines that had previously halted or cut output has been slow, and with strict safety supervision, supply is unlikely to see significant improvement, providing strong support for prices of key coal types. However, finished steel prices have pulled back, and downstream coke and steel companies are resistant to high-priced resources. In the online auction market, some high-priced coal types have failed to sell. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. On the news front, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong regions have accepted an increase of 50 yuan/mt for wet-quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for dry-quenched coke, to be implemented from 00:00 on July 1, 2026. Supply side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with most coke enterprises profitable and operating at moderate rates. In addition, coke enterprises are proactively selling, keeping their own coke inventories within reasonable ranges. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills is expected to decline, weakening the rigid demand for coke. Moreover, steel mill profits are thin, limiting their ability to absorb further price hikes. In summary, recent steel price weakness has led to a slight pullback in market sentiment. In the short term, the coke market is likely to remain generally stable with slight rise. [SMM Steel]

The European Union has drastically reduced its steel import quota cap by 12 million tonnes, slashing the total limit from 30.5 million tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes. This policy shift heavily impacts Turkey, cutting its hot-rolled coil (HRC) allocation by approximately 60% to 642,295 tonnes and rebar by over 36% to 239,676 tonnes. Additionally, the restriction alters global supply dynamics, forcing around 8.5 million tonnes of East Asian steel to find alternative global markets annually. While European steel prices are expected to rise briefly following the July 1 customs clearance, weak summer demand will likely cap these gains. In the scrap market, tight European domestic supply has pushed dockside delivery prices to €275/tonne, with German delivered prices sitting €10 to €15/tonne higher than Netherlands dockside rates; however, weakened Turkish steel sales will ultimately exert dominant downward pressure on the market. Meanwhile, US export prices have fallen by $30/tonne and US East Coast dockside prices dropped by $15 to $20/gross ton. Although two major Turkish mills temporarily stabilized import prices by heavily restocking 16 cargoes at higher rates, a subsequent purchasing pause is expected to trigger further downward adjustments.