[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, with strict safety supervision in Shanxi, coal mine production resumptions are slow, making it difficult for coking coal supply to improve. Steel mill profits are declining, wait-and-see sentiment in the market is growing, and coal mine shipments are average. However, the supply-demand fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged, and miners are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. In the short term, the coking coal market may consolidate. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, after nine rounds of price increases, coke producers have seen some recovery in profits, and their operating rates remain relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnace production at steel mills is currently at a relatively high load, but the steel market has entered the traditional off-season, end-user transactions are weakening, profit pressure is mounting, and steel mills are increasingly resistant to consecutive coke price hikes. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market is beginning to ease, but cost support remains. In the short term, the coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Central Bank Net Injection of 10 Billion Yuan via Open Market Government Bond Trading in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently released data on liquidity injections through various tools in June 2026, showing a net injection of 10 billion yuan through open market government bond trading during the month. According to statistics, net injections via open market government bond trading totaled 300 billion yuan in the first six months of this year. The PBOC’s Q1 2026 monetary policy implementation report stated that since the beginning of the year, the PBOC has conducted regular government bond trading operations, flexibly adjusting the scale of operations based on the need for base money injection and bond market conditions. The June injection data also showed a net injection of 200 billion yuan through the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and a net withdrawal of 137.2 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools. In addition, net injections through 7-day reverse repos amounted to 582.6 billion yuan, while other-maturity reverse repos saw a net injection of 300 billion yuan. 02 ★★ Oil Prices Post Biggest Single Drop of the Year Oil prices experienced a "three consecutive decline." According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), starting from 24:00 on July 3, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel (standard grade) will be cut by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per mt, respectively. This adjustment marks the largest single reduction this year. Based on calculations by institutions, the price cut is equivalent to a decrease of 0.73 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.77 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.78 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up a full tank of 92-octane gasoline will save about 36.5 yuan. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [Chinese Passenger Vehicle Market Share in Europe Surpasses Japan for the First Time] According to the latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), China's passenger vehicle market share in Europe surpassed that of Japan for the first time in May. Data shows that in May, five Chinese automakers sold a total of 138,400 vehicles in 31 European countries, up 65% YoY, while six Japanese automakers sold 130,400 vehicles in the same 31 countries, down 3% YoY. 02 ★★ [All 200 Billion Yuan in Funding for the Program of Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-Ins Has Been Disbursed This Year] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the third batch of equipment upgrade project lists and funding allocations this year, supporting equipment renewals in fields such as energy and power, logistics, education, elderly care institutions, offline consumer commercial facilities, old operating trucks, residential old elevators, and the installation of elevators in old residential communities. Since the beginning of this year, the NDRC, together with relevant departments, has optimized the scope of support, improved the application process, strengthened review and approval, accelerated the pace of work, and disbursed equipment upgrade funds in three batches. At present, the full-year 200 billion yuan equipment renewal funds have been fully allocated, supporting about 11,000 projects across 22 sectors, providing strong support for accelerating industrial upgrading, promoting green development, improving people’s well-being, and strengthening security safeguards. From January to May this year, investment in equipment and tool purchases increased by 9.3% YoY, accounting for 17.5% of total investment, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year. 03 ★★ [CISA: Monthly Report on Main Steel-Using Industries, January-May] From January to May, the construction sector among main steel-using industries remained sluggish, while manufacturing continued its overall growth. Specifically, the real estate market continued its adjustment, and infrastructure investment slowed compared with earlier periods. The value added of the machinery industry and export value of electromechanical products maintained growth, automobile production continued to edge down slightly, all three major shipbuilding indicators in the shipbuilding industry grew rapidly, production of the three major white goods in the home appliance industry all maintained growth, and container production continued to decline. 04 ★★ [June Heavy-Duty Truck Market Sales Up 18% YoY] According to statistics from cvworld.cn, China’s heavy-duty truck market sold about 115,000 units in June 2026, up about 5% MoM from May and up 18% from 98,000 units in the same period last year, while the YoY growth rate slowed somewhat compared with the March-May period. This was also a record high for June sales in the past five years. In January-June, cumulative heavy-duty truck sales in China reached about 660,000 units, up about 22% YoY. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [Shenzhen Property Market Continues Stable and Positive Momentum] According to the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, in June, the Shenzhen property market sustained the strong momentum following the April 29 new policy. Total online registrations for new commercial housing and second-hand residential properties in the city reached 8,878 units, up 14.2% YoY, and the real estate market continued its stable and positive trend. In the new home market, online registrations for new commercial residential properties in Shenzhen totaled 3,785 units in June, up 15.6% YoY, with the new home market continuing to improve. High-quality residential projects remained highly sought after. The commercial property market also performed well, with business apartments highlighting cost-effectiveness advantages. In H1, first-hand and second-hand office buildings and business apartments in the city recorded transactions of 6,567 and 6,238 units, respectively, soaring 103.0% and 70.2% YoY, respectively. ⭕ [Shenlong Group’s “Yunnan Strip New Material Base” Fully Put into Operation] On July 2, 2026, the galvanizing workshop of Yunnan Shenlong Tengda New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Yunnan Shenlong”) reported another success—the continuous hot-dip galvanizing/aluminum-zinc line with an annual capacity of 250,000 mt, contracted by Huangshi Shanli Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter “Shanli Technology”), was successfully put into operation. This was the third line successfully commissioned within a month, following the startup of a continuous hot-dip galvanizing line with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt on June 1 and a continuous hot-dip galvanizing/Zn-Al-Mg line, also with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt, on June 16 of this year. It marks the full commissioning of the three continuous hot-dip galvanizing/aluminum-zinc/Zn-Al-Mg lines built by Shanli Technology for Yunnan Shenlong, injecting strong new momentum into the supply of high-end new coated sheet and strip materials for China’s southwestern region! *This report is an original work and/or a compilation work of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMM”). SMM lawfully holds the copyright and is protected under the Copyright Law of the People’s Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, the content may not be reproduced, modified, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. 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[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Consolidates Amid Persistent Macro News Disturbances; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Firm in Off-Season with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on July 3, SS futures presented an overall pattern of holding up well. US non-farm payrolls data came in below expectations and inflation expectations declined, prompting non-ferrous metals to strengthen overall. SS followed suit and rose in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,600 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the decline in SS futures paused temporarily, while current social inventory pressure on stainless steel was not significant. With steel mills holding prices firm, spot offers remained firm. Most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was quoted at 14,655 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 315-865 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained unchanged; cold-rolled 304/2B mill edge coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the futures trend. US inflation data pulled back, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting valuations of commodities and non-ferrous metals and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industrial side remained bearish, the issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held relatively...

Non-oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B50A800 Grade: 4,380-4,380 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 Grade: 4,200-4,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 Grade: 4,300-4,300 yuan/mt Shanghai Market: The spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market remained in the doldrums this week, with overall transaction performance showing no improvement. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures drifted lower this week, and the supply pressure for non-oriented silicon steel was relatively high. Combined with weak market demand during the off-season, the overall trading atmosphere was sluggish. Downstream motor enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Overall, it is expected that next week, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market may continue to remain in the doldrums. Guangzhou Market: The cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou remained in the doldrums this week, with mainstream grades dropping by 50 yuan/mt and average transaction performance. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures weakened this week, and currently being in the demand off-season, the purchasing demand from downstream motor enterprises was moderate. Some traders reported that the market transaction atmosphere did not recover and remained relatively sluggish. Overall, it is expected that next week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel price in Guangzhou may remain in the doldrums. Wuhan Market: The cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Wuhan remained temporarily stable this week, with poor transaction performance. Market feedback indicated that the ordering costs of state-owned steel mills were firm, and traders' purchase prices were relatively high. However, the impact of the off-season was evident, and the purchasing pace of downstream end-users slowed down. Overall, it is expected that next week, the spot price of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Wuhan may remain in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: (The data in this report, except for publicly available information, are all based on public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market communication, and SMM's internal database model, derived through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.) SMM reserves the final right of interpretation for this statement and reserves the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

China's stainless steel market faces near-term pressure in Q3 before an anticipated rebound driven by production cuts and seasonal demand recovery. High temperatures and rainfall in July and August typically slow construction activity, dampening inventory depletion in key hubs such as Wuxi and Foshan. To counter shrinking margins, mills initiated maintenance shutdowns, with planned output estimated to decline 4.11% over June-July. By September, the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season combined with equipment upgrade policies should revive terminal procurement. On the macro front, potential US rate hikes and tariff proposals weigh on global metal markets, while domestically, new capacity replacement rules are accelerating the phase-out of obsolete production. With raw material cost support fading, supply-demand fundamentals are set to become the primary market driver.

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Futures and Sluggish Off-Season Trading Lead to Slight Stainless Steel Inventory Buildup SMM, July 2: This week, social inventory of stainless steel continued a marginal buildup trend, with inventories in core markets edging up slightly. The buildup remained manageable and pressure has not become evident yet. Total inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up, rising from 932,800 mt on June 25 to 935,400 mt on July 2, up 0.28% WoW. The buildup maintained a mild pace, with overall inventory pressure remaining relatively limited. The stainless steel market was in the traditional consumption off-season this week, with trading remaining persistently sluggish. Stainless steel futures stayed in the doldrums during the week, compounded by uncertainty over the additional Indonesian nickel ore quota. Raw material uncertainty disturbed market expectations, undermining confidence in the near-term outlook among industry participants. Downstream end-users were gripped by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with purchasing willingness staying weak. Spot market trading remained subdued. On the spot side, mainstream stainless steel mills showed a willingness to hold prices firm. Spot prices saw limited declines and remained resilient overall, which to some extent stabilized downstream restocking sentiment and prevented a concentrated panic-driven wait-and-see mode from taking hold in the market. Supply side, some stainless steel mills implemented production cuts, leading to a marginal contraction in market supply, which helped mitigate the extent of inventory buildup from the source. Overall, weak rigid demand in the traditional consumption off-season, weak futures, and raw material uncertainty that dragged on market confidence were the core drivers of the slight stainless steel inventory buildup this week. Meanwhile, steel mills’ strong price-holding that supported spot sentiment and production cuts that reduced supply were the reasons why the buildup was modest and inventory pressure …

Following Chinese Taiwan's upstream mills announcing flat July prices, midstream and downstream players share a broadly cautious market outlook, with inventories remaining high and actual demand sluggish. Market participants note that mounting destocking pressure among local distributors has fueled speculation that mills may adjust actual ex-factory prices downward to align with current market trends. However, some industry players argue that since real demand has yet to materialize, indiscriminate price cuts would only weaken the price trend without helping to clear inventory or improve sales performance, doing more harm than good. Overall, the market has shifted into a wait-and-see mode, with price stability under scrutiny.