The United States reported a 45.9% year-on-year reduction in imports of rolled steel during early 2026, reflecting the impact of newly implemented trade measures and heightened tariffs under Section 122. This sharp decline in foreign supply has significantly tightened the domestic market, allowing major US mills to increase spot market prices for hot-rolled coil to over $1,015 per tonne. Analysts suggest that the new tariff regime, which applies a 10% across-the-board duty on nearly all imports, is forcing a localized supply chain shift for North American manufacturers.

On March 10, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February 2026 reached 15.591 million mt, down 8.1% YoY, with February steel exports at 7.837 million mt. China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February 2026 were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY. China’s Steel Exports Declined YoY in January-February Against last year’s high base, China’s cumulative steel exports in January-February fell 8.1% YoY, but still remained at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years. The YoY decline in total exports in January-February was attributable, on the one hand, to policy impacts. At the end of 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the export licensing system would take effect on January 1, 2026. As it basically covered all steel export categories, policy uncertainty made some export traders more cautious in taking orders. On the other hand, the appreciation of the yuan weakened the price advantage of exports, which also affected order-taking. In February, despite fewer calendar days, the MoM figure still increased. The reason was that some steel mills engaged in compliant exports actively pursued export orders to ease pressure from domestic sales while traders stayed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, in the early stage of export license implementation, both customs and exporters needed to spend more time adapting to policy changes. As time passed, overall work efficiency improved, and port cargo pick-up also accelerated accordingly. China’s Steel Imports Remained at a Low Level in January-February On the import side, China’s cumulative steel imports in January-February were 827,000 mt, down 21.7% YoY; net steel exports reached 14.764 million mt, down 7.3% YoY. Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.2% in February 2026, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, remaining above 50 for two consecutive months. Asia, Europe, and the Americas all posted MoM increases and all stayed above the threshold, indicating signs of improving recovery in global manufacturing. However, affected by the long Chinese New Year holiday in China, the new export orders index of China’s manufacturing PMI was 45% in February, down 2.8 percentage points MoM. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have surged recently, bringing uncertainty to the just-improving global economic recovery. According to monitoring data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production totaled 147.3 million mt in January 2026, down 6.5% YoY, mainly dragged down by the sharp contraction in China’s production, which fell to 75.3 million mt in the single month, with a YoY decline as high as 13.9%. However, excluding the Chinese market, the rest of the world actually achieved about 3.6% growth against the trend in January, showing localized resilience amid divergence. The continued recovery of global crude steel capacity has brought some suppression to China’s steel exports. As of March 6, 2026, export offers for HRC (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $500/mt, $566/mt, and $460/mt, respectively, while China’s HRC export offer (FOB) was $472/mt. At present, China’s HRC export offer was respectively -$28/mt, -$94/mt, and +$12/mt versus those countries. Overall, China’s steel exports still had an absolute price advantage. Figure 1 - HRC Export Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM According to SMM’s latest steel mill export scheduling data, the planned HRC export volume for this month was 819,000 mt, down 125,000 mt from last month’s actual exports, with a MoM decline of 13.2%, mainly because major northern mills planned to adjust their export product mix. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as the impact of export licenses gradually faded, export order-taking gradually recovered in mid-to-late January. Meanwhile, with the long Chinese New Year holiday approaching, most export traders brought sales forward, so overall export order-taking maintained relatively high MoM growth. However, due to shipping disruptions caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, earlier orders would face certain difficulties in shipment. Taking all factors into account, with the support of more calendar days in March, SMM expected a mild MoM rebound in overall export volume, though product divergence remained evident. Subsequent changes in total export volume would likely depend on judgment over the US-Iran conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the overall impact will be relatively limited. Some domestic export traders have even taken on some semi-finished products orders lost from the Middle East due to the conflict, and Middle East demand has only been delayed rather than disappeared, with expectations of a demand surge after the conflict ends. But if the conflict turns into a protracted war, previously expected Middle East demand may face the risk of reassessment, while uncertainties such as ocean freight rates would also cause part of the demand to turn cautious. Figure 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Intake Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For any reposting, whitelist, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, it may not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to claims for breach of contract, recovery of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the Code to Get Information for Free

【SMM Steel】The Middle East conflict is disrupting shipping routes, causing longer delivery times and higher costs for EU steel imports. Buyers expect cargoes to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-4 weeks and raising freight costs. Uncertainty is limiting orders. The delays come as the EU plans tighter import quotas from July 2026. Higher energy and freight costs may push up steel prices.

[SMM Steel] Mexico's Ministry of Economy (SE) has initiated an administrative review of anti-dumping (AD) duties on prestressed steel imports from China, Spain, and Portugal. Current duties, including US$1.02/kg for Chinese imports, remain in effect to protect domestic production from potential injury.

[SMM Analysis] Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade On February 28, 2026, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated into a full-scale outbreak, causing a sudden spike in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. As a global chokepoint for energy and bulk commodity maritime transport, the Strait of Hormuz has seen shipping disrupted and routes tightened, directly impacting the nerves of the global supply chain. This "Golden Waterway" is not only a lifeline for oil but also a critical strategic corridor for the global steel import and export trade . Once passage is restricted, it will deliver a comprehensive shock to the international steel trade landscape. Amidst the turmoil of war, what disruptions and restructuring will the global steel trade face? SMM's latest research provides an in-depth analysis. In the short term, the U.S.-Iran conflict poses a risk of stalling steel imports and exports in the Persian Gulf region, putting pressure on China's steel exports. Multiple disruptions along Gulf shipping routes have caused significant delays in exporters' orders. According to SMM research, the current Middle East situation has disrupted multiple ports in the Gulf region. Bahrain has suspended port activities, including pilotage services. Jebel Ali Port has halted all operations due to a fire caused by intercepting airstrike debris. Qatar's Ras Laffan and Messaid ports remain operational but with reduced traffic, GPS signal interference, and the government closure of its airspace. Similarly, new orders and shipments for Chinese exporters have also been significantly hindered. Data Source:SMM Impact Assessment of Core Ports within the Strait of Hormuz Should a physical blockade occur at this strategic chokepoint, the five most directly affected key inner-bay ports experiencing “instant logistics paralysis” would be: Port of Bandar Abbas, Port of Khomeini, Port of Jebel Ali, Port of Khalifa, and King Abdullah Port. Simultaneously, a Strait blockade would threaten to disrupt approximately 10% of global seaborne steel trade (primarily semi-finished products and specialty ores) . Iran's production of direct reduced iron (DRI) also holds significant weight in global supply; any disruption could drive up costs for electric arc furnace steelmaking in the Middle East. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping After the blockade, will goods become completely impossible to transport? While maritime routes will indeed come to a near standstill, the flow of goods won't cease entirely. It will simply become extremely costly, slow, and require complex overland transshipment. For instance, strategic alternative ports outside the strait include Sohar Port, Chabahar Port, and Gwadar Port. Data Source: Compiled by SMM based on publicly available information Trade Chokehold Triggered by Insurance Withdrawals Equally severe as the strait blockade is the withdrawal of war risk insurance. Marine insurers Skuld and Gard have announced they will cancel war risk coverage due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Local feedback from the UAE indicates most insurers refuse to underwrite war risk insurance for the Red Sea. This means traders must bear multiple uncontrollable factors and assume all consequences, which will significantly impact new orders. Summary: The Hormuz Crisis's “Hedging Effect” on China's Steel Market Leads to Short-Term Export Pressure Short-Term Negative Impact (Suppression of Demand and Logistics): The sudden halt in Gulf shipping routes will cause China's total exports to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to plummet dramatically. Export disruptions may even force resources to flow back into the domestic market, intensifying supply pressure and exerting downward pressure on steel prices. Data Source: SMM, GACC Mid-term outlook: As a major steel supplier, Iran's halted exports will trigger tightening supply of steel billets in Southeast and South Asia. From Construction to Industry: Iran's Steel Export Structure Transformation and the Peak Era Dominated by “Billet” According to data released by the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), 2025 marked the “peak era” for Iran's steel exports, with its export structure exhibiting an extremely aggressive trend: ① Absolute Dominance of Semi-Finished Products: From March to December 2025, Iran's billet exports reached 4.58 million tons (+37.7% YoY), while slab exports hit 1.54 million tons (+44.6% YoY). This confirms the earlier observation that the current strait blockade will trigger significant “slab panic” among downstream steel mills in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ② Structural Leap in Flat Products: Finished flat product exports surged from 307,000 tons in the same period last year to 1.03 million tons. Notably, the significant increase in hot-rolled coil (867,000 tons) and coated steel (up 76.7% YoY) indicates Iran's gradual transition from a “construction steel supplier” to an “industrial raw material supplier.” ③ Weakness and contraction in long products: In contrast, exports of finished long products (rebar, wire rod) declined by 9.9%, while structural steel exports plummeted by 27.7%. This trend of “reducing long products while increasing flat products” has, against the backdrop of stalled infrastructure projects, actually heightened the risk of inventory buildup for finished goods. Data Source: ISPA Mid-term positive factors: Cost and substitution support Iran's steel export shortfall of nearly 11 million tons will trigger regional supply tightness, forcing some Southeast Asian and South Asian buyers to shift procurement to China, creating “substitution-driven incremental demand.” Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices may push up costs across the entire industrial chain, providing bottom-up support for steel prices. Although logistics disruptions and project suspensions will suppress export performance in the short term, the reshuffling of the global supply landscape is expected to partially offset the negative impact. Chinese steel may play a key role in filling the global gap. Long-term outlook: Iran's ceasefire may temporarily impact the global steel market Hoarding effect under blockade: Iran's sharply rising mill and port inventory pressures According to the latest global steel statistics report released by the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran's cumulative crude steel production reached 31.8 million tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.4% compared to 2024 and solidifying its position as the world's tenth-largest steel producer. In December 2025, Iran's monthly crude steel output hit 3 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 16.2%. This indicates that Iranian steel mills were operating at peak capacity just before the conflict erupted. In January 2026, its crude steel output reached approximately 2.6 million tons, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase. Against the backdrop of a 6.5% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production during January, Iran demonstrated an “independent trend.” According to SMM research, the high production levels from earlier periods have led to severe inventory backlogs at domestic steel mills. The logistics blockade that began in late February prevented the full shipment of steel produced during this high-output phase out of the Persian Gulf. Consequently, ports and mill warehouses are now stockpiling large quantities of slabs and billets originally intended for export. Once the situation eases, this “low-priced inventory” could flood the market at dumping prices. However, considering Iran's post-ceasefire reconstruction needs and the actual release of these supplies, SMM will continue to monitor developments closely. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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【SMM Steel】Bosnia's trade ministry proposed a 200-day, 30% duty on steel imports following a complaint by Nova Željezara Zenica. In 2025, reinforcing mesh imports surged 192.87% above the 4-year avg, with Serbian and Italian supply up 408.45% and 105.7%. Turkish coiled ribbed bar imports jumped 885.2%, Serbian 113.2%. The ministry warns of idle capacity and import dependency. The measure aims to prevent job losses and damage to local industry.

Steel demand in the Middle East increased by 2.8% year on year to 59.5 million tons in 2025. The main demand are derive from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) In the first three quarters of 2025, Saudi Arabia and the UAE imported 4.06 million tons and 4.24 million tons of Chinese steel, increasing by 24.5% and 10.7% year on year, respectively. The UAE's steel imports from China are primarily used in construction, accounting for 70% of the total. Rebar constitutes 40% to 50%, wire rod 20% to 25%, and steel plate 15% to 20%. These products are primarily used in real estate and infrastructure projects, rebar processing, and the production of small components, as well as in steel structures for industrial plants and plazas. Some market participants indicated that China's steel exports are seeing robust demand in the Middle Eastern market, especially accelerated by policies and infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

[Minutes of Morning Meeting on June 12] Affected by the inventory of some raw materials and weak order demand, during the traditional procurement period this week, the inquiry and transaction activity of precursor enterprises for nickel salts were low. Supply side, the order signing situation for nickel salt producers in June was poor this week, and some large nickel salt enterprises planned to carry out shutdown maintenance work in June. Given the weak demand coupled with falling costs, some nickel salt producers have shown signs of loosening their quotes.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the US and Mexico are expected to reach an agreement that would eliminate the 50% tariff imposed by former US President Trump on certain steel imports, reviving a similar deal from Trump's first term. Trump was not directly involved in the negotiations, but any agreement would require his approval. The talks were led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the sources said. The agreement has not yet been finalised, the sources added. Under the current terms, US buyers would enjoy duty-free treatment as long as they keep Mexico's total steel imports within a quota based on historical trade levels. The new cap would be higher than the limit allowed under the similar agreement during Trump's first term, though these so-called "quotas" were never fixed numbers but rather designed to "prevent surges," according to the sources. US Commerce Department data shows that last year, the US imported approximately 3.2 million mt of steel from Mexico, accounting for 12% of total US steel imports. During Trump's first term, the US and Mexico reached a deal in 2019 agreeing to prevent imports from exceeding the average level from 2015 to 2017. As of press time, neither the White House nor the office of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had responded to requests for comment. At an event on Tuesday, Mexican Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard said he told US officials during a meeting last week that imposing steel tariffs on Mexico was unjustified, as the US exports more steel to Mexico than it imports. Last Friday, he also posted a photo showing him shaking hands with a smiling Lutnick in Washington. "We are waiting for their response because last Friday we provided them with details of our arguments, and we are right," Ebrard told reporters on Tuesday. "So we will wait for their response, most likely this week." The negotiations come as Sheinbaum seeks to reach an understanding with Trump on border migration and drug smuggling, issues for which Trump has demanded Mexico take action. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum confirmed on June 9 local time that she would attend the upcoming G7 summit in Canada. She also mentioned the possibility of a bilateral meeting with US President Trump during the event. Sheinbaum added that migration would be one of the topics discussed during the meeting. Currently, the Mexican Foreign Minister is coordinating the arrangements for various meetings, and has pointed out that in addition to a possible meeting with President Trump, President Sheinbaum will also hold bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney.

SMM Nickel News on June 11: Macro News: (1) Recently, various automakers have announced that they will shorten the payment period for suppliers to within 60 days, in response to the requirements of the state and relevant ministries to ensure the stability of the industry chain and supply chain and promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry. Experts pointed out that automotive supply chain enterprises previously faced long payment cycles, sometimes up to nine months or even longer, leading to tight capital chains for many small and medium-sized supporting suppliers, who had to rely on discounting, short-term loans, and other means to maintain operations. Shortening the payment period can alleviate the financial pressure on suppliers and enhance their operational resilience and innovation capabilities. (2) According to informed sources, the US and Mexico are on the verge of reaching an agreement to eliminate Trump's 50% tariff on steel imports below a certain quantity. Meanwhile, Indian and US negotiators have made progress, with negotiations focusing on market access, tariff reductions, and non-tariff barriers for industries and some agricultural products. India and the US are expected to reach an interim trade agreement before the end of this month. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 121,400-124,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/mt, a decrease of 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-300 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and fluctuated slightly during the night session yesterday, with no significant volatility during the daytime session. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 121,710 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt or 0.04% from the previous trading day. Positive signals have been released from China-US economic and trade consultations, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are diverging. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to improve, and the supply surplus continues to suppress the upside room for nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.