This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, the tungsten market showed a divergent trend with mild corrections in domestic prices and a contrarian rise in overseas APT prices. Domestic tungsten concentrate and midstream product prices remained relatively firm, while scrap tungsten prices dropped sharply as profit-taking emerged. Supported by a tight supply-demand balance, overseas markets strengthened, further widening the price gap between domestic and international markets.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] News side, some steel mills are expected to raise wet-quenched coke prices by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching prices by 55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on April 1, 2026. In terms of supply, coke producers currently saw good shipments, and coke inventory remained at a relatively low level. Meanwhile, coking costs increased significantly, strengthening coke producers' willingness to increase prices. Demand side, steel sales improved, and steel mills were in the stage of resuming work and production, with hot metal production trending upward, boosting their willingness to procure coke. Overall, the first round of coke price increases may be implemented next week, and the coke market is likely to hold up well in the short term.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief: Shandong Region Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Have Some Upside Potential] In the west Liaoning region, domestic iron ore prices remained relatively stable, with 66 grade iron ore concentrates wet basis ex-factory prices at 745-755 yuan/mt; feedback from local mines and beneficiation plants indicated that during the Two Sessions next week, there may be some restrictions on explosives, further exacerbating the overall tightness of iron ore concentrates resources. Demand side, local steel mills are currently operating according to plan

National crude steel demand decreased from 1.05 billion mt in 2020 to 910 million mt in 2025, with the steel consumption in manufacturing (machinery, automobiles, home appliances, and ships) increasing from 242 million mt to 280 million mt, a rise of 15.7%, and its share rising from 23% to 31%, becoming a key force in boosting the upgrade of crude steel demand structure. In contrast, construction demand fell from 631 million mt to 440 million mt, with its share dropping from 60% to 49%.

[SMM Analysis: Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday] Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a pattern of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] After the Chinese New Year holiday, logistics and transportation are gradually resuming. However, short-term end-use demand remains sluggish, and most coke plants experienced inventory buildup during the holiday, requiring time to draw down stocks. As a result, coke prices are expected to remain in the doldrums after the holiday, with strong expectations of a price decline.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the electrolytic manganese market stabilized at the bottom with sluggish transactions. Before the holiday, the market’s downward momentum slowed after a cumulative 600 yuan/ton drop, with mainstream prices approaching the 17,000 yuan/ton mark, supported by steel mills’ final pre-holiday stockpiling. During the holiday, prices remained stable at around 17,300 yuan/ton with almost no transactions.