SMM Jul 11 news: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the losses with a 2.07% decline, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% increase. The % changes of other metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.4%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.78%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel edged up 0.03%, iron ore rose 0.27%, and both hot-rolled coil and rebar edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly gain of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations for a hawkish shift in the US Fed's monetary policy and persistent pressure from a stronger US dollar. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast to $4,560/oz from $4,864, and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a $3,800-$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and settle near $4,750 at year-end. (Wall Street CN) Overnight closing prices as of 7:17 AM Jul 11: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Boost Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Along Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software/Hardware R&D] According to CCTV, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to discuss work on cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting noted the need to boost the scaled development of emerging pillar industries along the entire chain, strengthen basic research and key software/hardware development, and accelerate technology iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also called for optimized regulatory models and guidance for local authorities to pursue differentiated development based on local conditions. (Jin10 Data App) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Impose Temporary Export Prohibition on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, they have decided to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium (Customs Commodity Code: 2804290010). This announcement took effect on the date of its issue, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jin10 Data App) [National Electricity Load Hits Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] This year, continuous new-quality development of the national economy and steady improvement in end-user electrification levels, coupled with recent high-temperature weather across many parts of the country, have seen electricity loads climb rapidly. July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, reaching a peak of 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW over the previous record. Since the start of summer, the power grid in south China, along with multiple provincial-level grids including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has collectively set new load records over 20 times. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year have been jointly boosted by three main factors. First, industrial electricity consumption grew steadily. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing flourished, while electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage, and computing equipment continued to expand. Second, electricity consumption in the service sector grew relatively quickly. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption growth rates for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures drove up electricity loads. As living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load nationwide approached 30%, exceeding 40% in some provinces. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: Non-fossil energy consumption share to increase by an average of about 1 ppt annually by 2028] The National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the *Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028)*. The plan proposes that by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units should be reasonably controlled, with the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current benchmark energy efficiency standards striving to increase by 15 percentage points; a batch of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil zones should be established; support should be given to building a batch of zero-carbon industrial parks, achieving significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improving the level of green energy use. The plan also proposes vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of 300,000 kW class and below coal-fired power units that meet the conditions, and encourage the construction of replacement units that meet next-generation coal power standards ; promote the implementation of a batch of super (ultra) critical cross-generation upgrade retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired power units. Support the implementation of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) retrofits for units that meet the conditions, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. Implement a batch of coal power, gas power, and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy integration to achieve carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupling thermal storage for peak shaving and peak load supply, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar Side: Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, gaining 0.05% for the week. The US Fed’s semi-annual report showed that overall US economic activity maintained steady expansion in 2026, mainly driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investment, with production capacity continuing to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and external economic growth was sluggish, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity growing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, and small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and rose further in the spring, while asset prices were above historical norms. The financial system was sound overall, bank reserves were ample, and the private credit market operated normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations were basically anchored near the 2% target, though uncertainty from the Iran conflict remained a major risk. (Jin10 Data APP) The report noted that the US Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about double the 2% target as of May this year. This is also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will appear before House and Senate committees next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for his semi-annual routine testimony review on monetary policy. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.0%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, reported that the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue the process of rate hikes. One source said, "Downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat as oil prices fall. But elevated costs from past imports will continue to put upward pressure on prices." Two other sources voiced similar views. They also said the BOJ may revise up its economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 in its July quarterly report and continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from yen weakness and strong AI demand partially offset some of the impact from falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data APP) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the Eurozone's savings rate were to fall to pre-pandemic levels, it could unleash demand for goods and services worth about 1% of GDP. In Q1 this year, household savings accounted for 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the final quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, suggesting a similar level could boost Eurozone GDP by nearly 2%. Consumption is expected to remain weak, as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth, and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, the shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the groundwork for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years, they said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Next week in China, data releases will include China's June trade balance in dollar terms, trade balance in yuan terms, June import and export YoY rates, Q2 GDP YoY rate, June total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, June industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, June total electricity consumption YoY, and June total electricity consumption. In the US, data due includes the US June unadjusted CPI YoY, seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP employment figures for the week ending June 27, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts, June total building permits, June import price index MoM, June industrial production MoM, preliminary July one-year inflation expectations, and preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. For the Eurozone, releases include May industrial production MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, final June CPI YoY, and final June CPI MoM. For the UK, data includes the May three-month GDP MoM rate, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial production MoM. Canada's May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 15 will also be released. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly residential sales price report for 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the NEA will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report"; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report". On July 16, the US Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, US crude rose 4.11% and Brent rose 4.3%, together snapping a four-week losing streak. The market is currently still pinning hopes on when navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Notably, after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran this week, the weekly crude oil price shook off the previous four-week losing streak, rising more than 4% for the week again. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran wants to continue "negotiations" with the US, and the US has agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also stated that the US has made it clear to Iran that the ceasefire is over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said that a new round of US-Iran negotiations might be held in Switzerland next week. However, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said claims that a new round of talks between Iran and the US would be held next week were untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never requested negotiations with the US, but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wallstreetcn) A head office reporter learned from Iranian sources that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, particularly the current state of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released by international market service agency Kepler on the 10th showed that on July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area dropped to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking two consecutive days of declining traffic in the strait. Kepler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. "The renewed escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term." (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks around our Brent crude oil price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027 are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing time).

The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peak Action," outlining key tasks in five areas. The plan proposes to support local consumption of new energy, actively develop models of green electricity direct supply such as green electricity direct connection and new energy nearby access to incremental distribution networks, and promote the integrated development of generation-grid-load-storage. By 2030, pumped storage hydropower installed capacity will reach around 160 million kW, new-type energy storage installed capacity will strive to reach 300 million kW, the maximum regulation capacity of virtual power plants nationwide will exceed 50 million kW, and power demand response capability will reach over 5% of the maximum electricity load.

SMM Cobalt Morning Brief: This week, the cobalt industry chain continued to consolidate on a weak note overall. Refined cobalt traded around 380,000 yuan/mt. Although smelters slightly raised their offers, high inventory and weak end-use demand limited price recovery. The trading center of cobalt intermediate products moved lower. Cobalt sulphate ground lower on a weak note. Transactions of cobalt chloride and Co3O4 were sluggish. Cobalt powder remained under pressure due to the traditional off-season. The pullback in raw material prices dragged down ternary cathode precursors and ternary cathode materials. LCO remained stable with a weak bias. Future market trends still require attention on Q3 restocking and end-use demand recovery.

SMM, July 10: Metals market side, overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.58%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.19%, SHFE zinc rose 1.26%, SHFE tin rose 2.26%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.29%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.59%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar fell 0.13%, and hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,297 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.79%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.15%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.71%, LME aluminum rose 2.29%, LME lead rose 0.19%, LME zinc rose 2.49%, LME tin rose 2.18%, and LME nickel rose 1.13%. Overnight, precious metals side : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver rose 3.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.31%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.22%. According to Polish central bank Governor Grabinski, the bank purchased billions of dollars worth of gold during the recent dip in gold prices. At a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday, Grabinski said the bank has purchased 82 mt of gold so far this year. This means that since the last official data release in April, the bank added another 37 mt of gold, worth approximately $5 billion at current prices. “Taking advantage of the recent price decline, we have been continuously purchasing gold,” Grabinski said. Poland reported more gold purchases than any other central bank in 2025 and is expected to continue this record this year. Gold prices have fallen over 10% since April. Grabinski reiterated the Polish central bank’s target of 700 mt of gold reserves. He said the bank currently holds 632.4 mt of gold, of which 105 mt is stored in Poland and the rest is held in London and New York. (Jinshi Data APP) Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, expecting a H2 gold price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target price of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank purchases and the high probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates over the next 12 months will be key factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates at most 1 to 2 times, and gold ETF outflow pressure will also be limited. Bernstein noted that in Q2 2026, rising real interest rates caused gold prices to pull back from $4,650/oz to around $4,000, but as rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside room. The firm also warned that if inflation persistently exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to hike rates more aggressively, that would become a major risk to gold’s upward movement. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:12 AM on July 10, overnight closing market data: Macro front China side: [State Council Issues “15th Five-Year Plan” Carbon Peak Action Plan: Carbon Emissions to Decrease 17% in 2030 Compared with 2025] On July 9, the “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peak Action Plan” was released, charting a “roadmap” for China to meet its carbon peak target before 2030. Over the next five years, China’s energy structure will undergo further adjustment and optimization. By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25% of the total. In terms of specific measures, the Action Plan clearly mandates accelerating energy structure adjustment and optimization and vigorously promoting non-fossil energy development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, new electricity consumption will be increasingly covered by new clean energy generation. The Action Plan intensifies efforts to promote green and low-carbon industrial development, with a series of new measures being introduced. On one hand, it aims to deepen the low-carbon transition of traditional industries, advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects in steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, petrochemical engineering and other key industries. On the other hand, it focuses on vigorously developing emerging green and low-carbon industries such as green energy, green manufacturing, and green services. For existing capacity, it emphasizes “improving quality through green transition,” guiding enterprises from a zero-sum cost-driven competition mindset toward an innovative approach of low-carbon and zero-carbon development. For new capacity, it stresses “cultivating the new with green transition,” nurturing and expanding strategic emerging and future industries characterized by green, low-carbon features. In the transportation sector, the Action Plan proposes that by 2030, the ownership share of NEVs should reach 30%, and the ownership share of new energy operating vehicles should reach 25%. By the end of 2025, national NEV ownership accounted for about 12%, meaning this share will more than double within five years. For ordinary citizens, private NEV ownership will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.93. The latest data shows that for the week ending July 4 (which includes the US Independence Day holiday), US initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000, remaining near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the re-employment situation for the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, the highest level since March. Initial jobless claims persistently running low, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labor market characterized by “reduced layoffs, slowing hiring.” (Wall Street News) Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin has established five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based studies, and submit rigorous analyses to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The review will assess whether there is room for improvement in policy tools, analytical methods, and the policy framework. The review teams include several prominent economists and former central bank officials. Among them, Harvard economist Chetty Raj will co-lead the data working group, tech investor Andreessen Marc will head the productivity and employment working group, and former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Mankiw Gregory will co-lead the inflation working group. Warsh said that the US economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past generation, and the current transformation is occurring at a faster pace, so the Fed needs to ensure it is in optimal condition to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “Monthly Budget Review: June 2026,” the US federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, an increase of $35 billion compared to the same period last fiscal year. Federal revenues over the period were $4.2 trillion, up $142 billion or 4%, while outlays were $5.5 trillion, up $178 billion or 3%. (CCTV) New York Fed Open Market Account Manager Perli stated that reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s open market trading desk can adjust purchase amounts higher or lower depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that amid Fed Chairman Warsh appointing a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks the committee may decide to adopt. The Fed began conducting reserve management purchase operations last December, driven by expectations that reserves would decline rapidly in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jinshi Data APP) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if the FOMC conducts open market operations through a voluntarily participated central clearing mechanism, it would help improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, and enhance US financial market stability. Logan noted that such an arrangement could improve the use of Fed tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility, which aims to provide liquidity to eligible institutions but has seen relatively low market usage so far. Some believe that simplifying clearing processes could increase its attractiveness. She also stated that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed, and financial markets must maintain an appropriate balance between the benefits and risks of leverage, and between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.1%. Probability for the September meeting: holding rates steady at 35.7%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 13.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies side: Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting showed the bank could no longer ignore the energy shock, projecting that rising energy prices would push medium-term inflation above its 2% target. The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise key interest rates to 2.25% last month, becoming the first major central bank to hike rates due to elevated energy prices caused by the Iran war. The minutes stated: “The current situation clearly falls no longer into the category of shocks that can be looked through.” “The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that they will push up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. This increases the risk that the energy shock becomes entrenched in underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” (Jinshi Data APP) Macro side: Data scheduled for release today include Germany’s June CPI final monthly rate, France’s June CPI final monthly rate, Switzerland’s June consumer confidence index, Canada’s June employment change, China’s June M2 money supply annual rate, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date aggregate social financing growth. Also in focus: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech; SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq this July 10. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI oil down 2.33% and Brent oil down 2.72%. Although US-Iran military conflict escalated overnight, the market’s actual reaction was notably subdued, with crude oil closing lower. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that the market views this attack as another “controlled escalation,” based on the premise that the economy can withstand the shock. Goldman Sachs’ Privorotsky shared a similar view, indicating that the market signal suggests no real interest from any party in expanding the conflict, preferring instead to maintain bargaining leverage. However, Privorotsky also warned that while crude oil prices have pulled back, the refined product prices that actually feed into inflation have yet to follow. (Wall Street News) The US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early May, US forces have been assisting in safeguarding navigational safety in this vital international trade route, with over 800 merchant ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil successfully passing through the strait. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, sources said that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday following a drone attack. (Jinshi Data APP)

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt, fell first before rising to a high of $1,904/mt during Asian trading hours; after entering the European session, it plunged and gave back all gains to a low of $1,886.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,894.5/mt, up 0.19%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,085 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,095 yuan/mt at the start of trading, then dived to a low of 15,975 yuan/mt, rebounded slightly in the last trading minutes, and finally closed at 16,040 yuan/mt, down 0.62%. On the macro front: The US Fed announced the list of heads for five new working groups. China's National Bureau of Statistics: In June 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY, and the national producer price index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY. CAAM: China's NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million units and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% and 7.3% YoY, January-June. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peaking Action Plan": By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, and the ownership of new energy vehicles is targeted to reach 30%. The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Human Resources and Social Security": During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a considerable scale of new urban employment will be maintained. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters upgraded the emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Zhejiang and Fujian from Level 4 to Level 3. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a subdued note, and with ample circulating supply in the market, suppliers mostly sold at discounts. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters also saw wider discounts, with quotations in mainstream producing areas at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were less willing to sell, and secondary refined lead was quoted at or near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on EXW basis. Downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, with limited inquiries, leading to sluggish transactions in the spot order market. Inventories: As of July 9, LME lead inventory remained flat at 291,425 mt; as of July 9, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell by 3,800 mt from July 6. Lead price forecast for today: Some primary lead enterprises have gradually completed maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. Additionally, several secondary and primary lead producers plan to conduct maintenance in mid-to-late July, which is expected to limit further supply growth. At the same time, the off-season demand characteristics remain pronounced, and just-in-time procurement by downstream users is limited, raising doubts about the sustainability of destocking in social inventory of lead ingots. Currently, downstream enterprises harbor strong wait-and-see sentiment and reduced purchasing willingness. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM, July 8: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.59%, SHFE lead rose 0.88%, SHFE zinc edged lower, and SHFE tin rose 0.51%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.85%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Stainless steel fell 0.27%, iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.2%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.2%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.57%, LME aluminum rose 0.84%, LME lead rose 0.35%, LME zinc fell 0.22%, LME tin fell 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.22%, COMEX silver fell 3.09%. The most-traded SHFE gold futures contract rose 0.08% overnight, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 0.7%. As of 7:13 am on July 8, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Approves the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power'] The State Council issued a reply regarding the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power' and approved the plan in principle. The reply stated that the plan's implementation should fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, adhere to tourism serving the people, take promoting high-quality development as the theme, advance deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, coordinate between government and market, supply and demand, protection and development, domestic and international, development and security, strive to improve the modern tourism system, optimize the spatial layout of tourism, cultivate new drivers for tourism development, enrich tourism supply, unleash consumption potential, improve service quality, promote high-efficiency governance, deepen exchanges and cooperation in the tourism sector, accelerate the building of a tourism power, so that the tourism industry can better serve a better life, promote economic development, build a spiritual home, showcase China's image, and enhance mutual learning among civilizations. [China's June forex reserves down 0.75% MoM; central bank's gold reserves increase for 20th consecutive month] Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed that by the end of June 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,416.3 billion, down $26 billion or 0.75% from the end of May. In June 2026, affected by factors such as macroeconomic data of major economies, monetary policies of major central banks and expectations, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. The combined effects of exchange rate translation and asset price changes led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy has been generally stable and moving toward new and improved development, which helps keep the scale of foreign exchange reserves basically stable. In addition, PBOC data showed that China's gold reserves at end-June stood at 75.44 million ounces (approx. 2,346.446 mt), a MoM increase of 480,000 ounces (approx. 14.93 mt). At end-May, gold reserves were 74.96 million ounces (approx. 2,331.52 mt). This marks the 20th consecutive month of gold purchases. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.09. Soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.9%. The US trade deficit in May hit the largest since March 2025 as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that the goods and services trade deficit widened 42.2% MoM to $77.6 billion in May. Exports dropped 3.2% in May, dragged down by declines in non-monetary gold exports. Imports rose 3.3%. In the months before the deficit widened, oil and petroleum product exports, boosted by the Iran war, had been helping to offset the continued surge in capital goods imports related to the country's domestic data center construction. The report showed that oil exports continued to grow in May. Meanwhile, imports of computer accessories and semiconductors rose again, while imports of computer and telecom equipment retreated. Recent PMI surveys suggested that imports may also have been boosted by US enterprises stockpiling in advance to avoid war-related supply chain disruptions and price increases. The May trade data will help economists firm up their Q2 GDP estimates. (Jin10 Data App) Macro: Today, data including New Zealand's RBNZ interest rate decision for July 8 and US May wholesale sales MoM will be released. Additionally, watch for: the RBNZ's interest rate decision announcement; RBNZ Governor Bullman's monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures surged, with US crude up 5.32% and Brent crude up 5.49%. The tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a chain reaction. The US Treasury Department announced the revocation of the Iran oil sales waiver, pushing oil prices higher. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury subsequently announced that, effective July 7, it revoked the Iran oil sales waiver previously issued under the framework of the US-Iran interim peace agreement. The waiver was originally valid until August 21. The statement said no new related transactions are allowed. (Wall Street Journal) EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: forecasts 2026 WTI crude oil price at $76.26/bbl, previously $88.32/bbl; forecasts 2027 WTI crude oil price at $60.76/bbl, previously $74.39/bbl; forecasts 2026 Brent crude oil price at $81.91/bbl, previously $95.39/bbl; forecasts 2027 Brent crude oil price at $64.76/bbl, previously $79.39/bbl. (Jin10 Data App)

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [PBOC Conducts 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo Operation Today] The People's Bank of China recently announced that it would conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price bidding, for a term of 3 months (91 days). As 800 billion yuan of this tenor matures within the month, this 3-month outright reverse repo operation will achieve a rollover with increased volume, ending the three-month streak of shrinking volumes for this tenor. 02 ★★ [ People's Daily: Panda Bonds Reflect Foreign Investors' Increasing Bet on China ] Since the start of this year, panda bond issuance has heated up significantly, with over 130 billion yuan issued in the first five months, and is expected to reach a new high for the full year. Large-scale panda bond issuance by mainstream international issuers signals strong global recognition of China's institutional environment, development expectations, and the renminbi. Specifically, three key reasons stand out. First, comparative financing cost advantages have made borrowing in renminbi more attractive. Second, the continuous improvement of the panda bond framework has enhanced financing convenience. Third, the popularity of panda bonds is closely linked to the accelerating pace of renminbi internationalization. The growing panda bond market is forming a positive feedback loop with the international use of the renminbi. 03 ★★ [ PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Withdrawal of 49.5 Billion Yuan on the Day ] The PBOC conducted a 7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo and a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation today. With 157.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day amounted to 49.5 billion yuan. In the open market this week, a total of 678.5 billion yuan reverse repos will mature, with 157.5 billion yuan, 69.5 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan, 288.5 billion yuan, and 63 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 800 billion yuan of 89-day outright reverse repos matured on Monday, and the PBOC conducted a 1,000 billion yuan 3-month outright reverse repo operation on Monday. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [World's Largest Dock Restarts] After being taken over by a new owner, the long-dormant Gunsan Shipyard of South Korea's largest shipbuilding group, HD Hyundai, has officially restarted, securing its first new ship order. Amid a global new shipbuilding orderbook that continues to fluctuate at highs, this shipbuilding base, which had been idle for nearly nine years, is re-entering the sight of global shipowners, leveraging its advantage of relatively shorter delivery cycles. 02 ★★ [Shaanxi Coal Industry: June 2026 Coal Production Up 0.70% YoY] Shaanxi Coal Industry announced that in June 2026, its coal production was 14.46 million mt, cumulative 91.17 million mt, up 0.70% and 4.30% YoY respectively; sales of self-produced coal were 13.07 million mt, cumulative 83.66 million mt, down 9.49% and up 3.45% YoY respectively. Power generation side, total power generation was 3.352 billion kWh, cumulative 19.082 billion kWh, down 11.86% and up 7.39% YoY respectively; total electricity sales were 3.136 billion kWh, cumulative 17.946 billion kWh, down 12.40% and up 7.98% YoY respectively. 03 ★★ [Hoa Phat Price Adjustment Info] FHS announced July prices last Friday, continuing a significant cut of 1,050 VND per kg (approx. $40 per mt) compared to the previous month. Please see below. ================= 20kt and above: $538 CIF (14,230 VND/kg) 15kt to 20kt: $540 CIF (14,280 VND/kg) 10kt to 15kt: $542 CIF (14,330 VND/kg) 5kt to 10kt: $544 CIF (14,380 VND/kg) 2,000 mt to 5,000 mt: $546 CIF (14,430 VND/kg) <2kt: $548 CIF (14,490 VND/kg) Shipment: Aug/Sep 2026 Port: HCM/PM Exchange rate: 26,460 VND = $1 04 ★★ [Bao Gang United Steel HH AREMA Heat-Treated Rail First Export Outside China] In June 2026, Bao Gang United Steel successfully completed the first batch export of HH370 grade high-strength heat-treated rails conforming to AREMA standards. This marked the first export of HH grade rails, filling the gap in the company’s production and export capabilities for all categories of AREMA-standard rails, further enriching its high-end AREMA-standard rail product portfolio, and demonstrating its full independent manufacturing strength from proprietary technological breakthroughs to large-scale stable production. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [Shan Steel Rizhao Company 800MPa High-Strength Steel First Successful Trial Production] Recently, the 800MPa grade high-strength steel was successfully trial-produced on the hot rolling line. Inspection showed good flatness and surface quality, marking that the hot rolling plant of Shan Steel Rizhao Company has reached a new level in high-end product development, further enhancing the competitiveness of its hot-rolled products in the lightweight markets for construction machinery and commercial vehicles. ⭕ [The environmental impact report for the Phase II construction of the Dongfang Special Steel Green High-End Nickel-Chromium New Material Intelligent Manufacturing Project was approved.] This is an expansion project with a total investment of 3,823,998,800 yuan, of which 190 million yuan is for environmental protection. The project is located at No. 1333 Jiagang Road, Xinfeng Town, Nanhu District, Jiaxing City (within the existing plant area of Zhejiang Nanhu Economic Development Zone and on newly added adjacent land). The project plans to purchase vacuum induction furnaces, electroslag furnaces, vacuum consumable furnaces, cold continuous rolling units, cold single-stand rolling units, and supporting cold annealing, pickling, and tempering units, forming a capacity of 1 million mt of cold-rolled white coils and 35,200 mt of specialty smelting. ⭕ [Multiple departments jointly deploy a crackdown on illegal activities in production safety.] It was learned from the Ministry of Emergency Management on July 6 that the Office of the State Council Work Safety Committee, together with the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Justice, recently issued a notice. It deploys all regions and relevant departments to conscientiously implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on production safety, strictly implement the spirit of the national production safety video conference, and, in conjunction with the three-year action plan for tackling the root causes of production safety and the investigation and rectification of major accident hazards, focus on key industries such as ore mines, chemicals, fire protection, and industry and trade to deeply carry out a crackdown on illegal activities in production safety. *This report is an original work and/or compilation created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), which legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. 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On July 6, it was learned from the Ministry of Emergency Management that the Office of the Work Safety Committee of the State Council, together with the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Justice, recently issued a notice, deploying all regions and relevant departments to earnestly implement the guiding principles of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on work safety, strictly enforce the spirit of the national work safety video conference, and, in conjunction with the three-year action to address the root causes of work safety and the investigation and rectification of major accident hazards, focus on key industry sectors such as mines, chemical industry, fire protection, and industrial and trade, and deeply carry out the "crackdown on illegal activities and violations" in work safety.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs and Tested 410,000, While Spot Market Trading Was Sluggish]

SMM Nickel July 6 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The People's Bank of China announced that on July 6, 2026, it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multi-price bidding method, for a term of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (2) The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China Construction". It proposed actively and steadily advancing and achieving carbon peak, implementing the national strategy to actively address climate change, fulfilling nationally determined contributions, solidly advancing carbon peak actions, and fully implementing the dual control system for total carbon emissions and intensity. Spot Market: On July 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the range for domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 126,920 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 0.12%. US non-farm payrolls disappointed, leading to more cautious market assessments of the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled significantly, and a sharp drop in the US dollar provided a catalyst for nickel prices to rebound. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.