[SMM Analysis] Futures Drag Down Stainless Steel Prices, Steel Mill Profits Narrow Significantly This week, finished stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem. Driven by a sharp decline in SS futures, the drop in stainless steel prices widened noticeably, and steel mills’ overall smelting profits narrowed significantly. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, this week’s profit margin was 0.24% based on current raw materials and 0.68% based on inventory raw materials. On the nickel-based raw material side, high-grade NPI ended its previous streak of gains this week and entered a pullback after the rally stalled. During the week, high-grade NPI prices fell under pressure as SHFE nickel futures declined and market sentiment was disrupted by news that Indonesian nickel ore approval quotas may increase. Dragged down by the continued build-up of market pessimism and narrowing profit margins at stainless steel mills, high-grade NPI purchasing activity remained weak and sluggish. As of Friday this week, the delivered duty-paid price in China for 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI fell by 2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136 yuan/nickel unit. This week, stainless steel scrap prices held steady for the time being, but the market already showed clear signs of pressure. Affected by falling futures and lower finished steel prices, market pessimism continued to intensify. The weak downward trend in high-grade NPI kept narrowing the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap, and cost support continued to weaken. Although higher production schedules fueled expectations of a recovery in rigid demand, steel mills’ limited profit margins and cautious restocking attitudes provided insufficient support for the market. Against a backdrop of multiple bearish factors resonating, stainless steel scrap will weaken in tandem with futures in the short term and remain in the doldrums overall. As of Friday this week, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai were flat, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Holding Steady; Weak Off-Season Demand Caps Upside Room This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China remained unchanged, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; prices in Foshan pulled back slightly, within a range of 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. An analysis of raw material production costs shows that the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,968.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices were broadly stable this week. Indonesian news disrupted market sentiment during the week, and SS futures swung wildly. The futures fluctuations transmitted to the spot market, driving concurrent swings in spot stainless steel products, but overall prices only pulled back slightly, highlighting the resilience of spot prices. The price of the alternative raw material high-grade NPI continued to consolidate on a strong note, and the overall tone on the raw material side was relatively steady. Caught in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices remained stable during the week. Overall, cost advantages and production resumption expectations provided support, but end-user off-season fundamentals continued to suppress price increases. The market is still in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, and downstream end-user demand for finished steel products is generally weak, leaving the market without a sustained upward driver from end-user demand. Although the market expects stainless steel production schedules to improve in August, which may lift rigid demand for stainless steel scrap, and the current economic advantages of stainless steel scrap remain in place, providing potential bullish support for the market…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota News Hits Futures, Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Pull Back in Tandem According to an SMM report on Aug 6, SS futures trended downward and hit bottom. The SHFE nickel and SS futures dropped together, impacted by news of additional nickel ore quotas under Indonesia's RKAB. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the SS futures' successive declines intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. Although traders generally lowered their quotes in line with futures, inquiries remained sluggish, and transactions weakened further. SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was reported at 14,465 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B material in the Wuxi area were in the 405-855 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held stable. For cold-rolled unedged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 75 yuan/mt, while that in Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat. Quotes for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi were unchanged. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. This week, macro sentiment shifted bearish, dominating metal market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note overall. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its meeting this week, but its overall stance was hawkish. Commodity valuations generally came under pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Dragged by the spillover effect of macro headwinds, SS futures followed suit and consolidated on a subdued note, with the center of the futures moving lower. The overall market...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise; Spot Stainless Steel Trades Cool Down According to SMM on August 5, SS futures generally pulled back, ending yesterday's shot up, and followed SHFE nickel to slump sharply. As of close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,475 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the renewed decline in SS futures, trading sentiment weakened notably, and traders lowered their quotes. Under the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, transactions turned visibly quiet. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 am, SS2609 was at 14,480 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 490-890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan also fell by 75 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish, dominating metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed's interest rate meeting this week kept rates unchanged as expected, but the overall stance was hawkish, weighing on commodity valuations broadly, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Affected by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with the center of futures moving lower and overall market trading sentiment cautious. Spot and inventory side, futures...

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Center Moves Up, Spot Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Recovers According to SMM news on August 4, SS futures shot up and probed higher overall. Near the close of the night session, driven by fund operations, SHFE nickel and SS futures shot up quickly. Although SS pulled back briefly at the morning open, it had risen significantly overall. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. Spot market, buoyed by the rally in SS futures, traders for stainless steel agents raised their quotes even as steel mill spot guidance prices held steady. Market activity picked up and inquiry and transaction performance was moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 AM, SS2609 was at 14,870 yuan/mt, up 345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 200–550 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, average prices: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil stable; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi up 50 yuan/mt, Foshan up 75 yuan/mt); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quote flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the contagion of macro headwinds, SS futures...

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis] SS Futures Pull Back, Stainless Steel Spot Trades Remain Sluggish According to SMM on August 1, SS futures showed an overall decline and pullback trend. Dragged down by the pullback in SHFE nickel, SS fell in tandem. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures retreated notably. Although NPI prices have been holding up well recently, lending cost support to stainless steel spot prices which fluctuated only slightly, market inquiries and transactions weakened further, and some agents lowered prices to take orders. SS most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was at 14,525 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 445-895 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge, the average price in Wuxi dropped 25 yuan/mt, and in Foshan dropped 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated the metals market, leaving stainless steel futures under pressure and consolidating on a subdued note. The US Fed kept rates unchanged this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish, broadly weighing on commodity valuations, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures followed suit and consolidated on a subdued note, with the center of futures trading shifting lower and overall market sentiment turning cautious. ……

Tang Eng Iron Works raised its August prices for primary 304 hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils by NT$1,500/ton, matching Yusco's adjustment and marking a second consecutive month of upward price revisions for stainless flat rolled products. The company also lifted 316L surcharges by NT$2,500/ton. In contrast, Walsin Lihwa held its 304 stainless steel wire rod prices flat for a second straight month, highlighting divergent pricing strategies among major upstream mills for August plate and wire rod products respectively.

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…