Metals mostly rose, polysilicon surged over 5%, and LME nickel, SHFE zinc, lithium carbonate, NY silver, etc., rose more than 1% [SMM Midday Comment]

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesia MHP nickel is $15,208/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesia MHP cobalt is $46,893/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 83-84, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 88. The Indonesia high-grade nickel matte FOB price is $15,633/mt Ni.

Stainless steel and aluminium trader Gerber Group submitted a detailed statement to the EU consultation on the draft CBAM certificate platform regulation, with a core message: a typing error is not fraud, and a single irrevocable annual repurchase request is not simplification. Under the current draft effective February 1, 2027, purchase requests cannot be amended once submitted, and repurchase requests may only be made once per year with no correction or withdrawal permitted. CEO Thorsten Gerber noted that the Commission may correct its own drafts, platform operators may rectify reports, and authorities may correct data — yet SMEs that finance the system are expected to be infallible. Gerber Group demands a general right to correct obvious input errors before payment, monthly repurchase processing within 15 calendar days, automatic deadline protection when Commission systems fail, and multilingual support. Critics also note the draft contains placeholders, incorrect legal references, and contradictory provisions, while the proposed platform fee of EUR 0.05 per certificate — roughly 16 times the EEX rate — would generate approximately EUR 22 million annually with no published cost justification.

Driven by price hikes for 300-series products led by Yusco and Tang Eng, Taiwan's sluggish stainless steel spot market saw a noticeable revival this week with increased buying activity. While some distributors and major traders remain cautious due to weak demand and high-priced inventory, rising replacement costs have pushed dealers to raise selling prices. Small traders and end users began restocking, with orders in the first three days of the week surpassing the entire first half of the month. Trading volume remains modest overall, but the market shows clear signs of life, with future stability hinging on demand recovery, mill pricing strategies, and trends in imported materials from Vietnam.

Chinese Taiwan's stainless steel mills have announced August price increases of NT$1,500/ton for 304 flat-rolled products, initiating active pricing negotiations with downstream distributors while maintaining firm cost-support price levels. Despite sluggish market demand, producers are holding price floors supported by LME nickel prices stabilizing above US$17,000 in July and August, steady Indonesian raw material quotations, and a weakening New Taiwan Dollar trading near 32.447 against the US dollar. Distributor purchasing direction is expected to become clearer as negotiations conclude.

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.

South Africa exported 123,310.23 tonnes of high-carbon ferrochrome in June 2026, down a modest 0.32% month-on-month but sharply lower — down 44.57% — year-on-year. The near-flat monthly reading suggests exports have found a temporary floor after an extended period of decline, but the scale of the annual drop confirms that South Africa's ferrochrome trade remains firmly on the back foot, in stark contrast to the chrome ore side of the business, which posted export volumes nearly 39% higher than a year earlier over the same month. Figure 1: South Africa high-carbon ferrochrome export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Decline Rooted in the Smelters, Not the Market The subdued year-on-year performance is best explained by looking at what has been happening inside South Africa's ferrochrome furnaces rather than at demand abroad. Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, showed the scale of the domestic problem directly: attributable ferrochrome production from the Glencore Merafe Chrome Venture collapsed 75% to just 28,000 tonnes, driven by extended suspensions at the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters and a partial suspension at Lion. With a significant share of the country's ferrochrome-producing capacity effectively offline for much of the period being compared against, a steep year-on-year export decline is a direct, mechanical consequence of reduced output — not evidence that international buyers have gone elsewhere. Read this way, June's export weakness is a supply-side story, not a demand-side one. A Destination Mix That Looks Nothing Like Chrome Ore's China remained South Africa's largest ferrochrome destination in June, but at 31.56% of shipments, its share was far lower than the 67.61% it commanded in the equivalent chrome ore export data for the same month. That gap is telling: China's ferrochrome smelters are built to process imported raw chrome ore into alloy domestically, which is precisely why the country absorbs such an outsized share of South African ore but a comparatively smaller share of already-finished ferrochrome. South Korea's position as the second-largest destination, at 16.63%, fits the same logic from the opposite direction — Korea has limited domestic chrome ore resources and no comparable smelting base, so its stainless steel producers rely on imported semi-finished ferrochrome rather than ore. Together, the two destinations underscore how the ferrochrome trade is shaped by which countries can smelt their own ore and which cannot, a very different dynamic from the ore trade's concentration around Chinese furnace demand alone. A Possible Turning Point Ahead The timing of June's data is worth noting. Around the same period, Eskom and South Africa's ferrochrome producers reached a negotiated electricity tariff agreement, and Merafe subsequently announced the restart of the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters at the very end of June. If that restart translates into a sustained production ramp-up through the second half of 2026, it raises the prospect that the worst of the year-on-year export declines may be behind the industry, with H2 2026 figures potentially beginning to narrow the gap against 2025 comparatives. That said, restarting idled smelters is rarely instantaneous, and the extent of any recovery will depend on how quickly output ramps back toward pre-suspension levels — a trend worth tracking closely over the coming months rather than assuming resolved. A Policy Backdrop Pulling in the Opposite Direction It's worth noting that ferrochrome sits on the other side of South Africa's chrome policy debate compared with raw ore. Where chrome ore exports have drawn government intervention — export permitting through ITAC and a proposed export tax, aimed specifically at discouraging raw shipments and pushing more material toward domestic beneficiation — ferrochrome is the very outcome that policy is designed to encourage more of. Seen against that backdrop, June's weak ferrochrome export figures represent something close to the opposite of the government's stated goal: less beneficiated product reaching export markets, even as raw ore shipments continue to climb. That contrast adds a layer of urgency to the smelter restart story, since a durable recovery in ferrochrome export volumes would be a more direct sign of the beneficiation strategy gaining traction than any adjustment to ore-export policy alone. A Note on Demand Resilience While South Korea's steady share of June shipments points to continued underlying buying interest, it's worth flagging that Chinese domestic high-carbon ferrochrome tender pricing had shown signs of softening in mid-July, with a bearish outlook for the following month's tender round. That suggests demand resilience may not be uniform across all destination markets, and is a detail worth weighing alongside the export volume data rather than assuming steady global demand across the board. Bottom Line June's ferrochrome export data tells a story of a market held down by supply constraints rather than weak demand, with a destination mix shaped by which countries smelt their own ore and which import the finished alloy. With Wonderkop and Boshoek now restarted and a new electricity tariff framework in place, the coming months will be the real test of whether South Africa's ferrochrome trade can begin closing the gap with 2025 levels, or whether the divergence between a booming chrome ore trade and a struggling ferrochrome trade becomes the defining feature of the country's chromium sector for the rest of 2026.

South Africa's chrome ore exports totalled 2,403.95kt in June 2026, easing a marginal 0.90% month-on-month but still standing 38.86% higher than a year earlier — the latest data point in a trend that has defined the country's chromium sector for well over a year: raw ore volumes holding firm or growing, even as the health of domestic ferrochrome smelting remains under separate and distinct pressure. Figure 1: South Africa chrome ore export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Moderating, but Still Elevated, Trend June's figure sits within a narrow band that has now persisted for three consecutive months. Exports measured 2.47 million tonnes in April and 2.43 million tonnes in May, before easing further to 2.404 million tonnes in June — a gentle, incremental decline of roughly 2.7% across the quarter. Read in isolation, that could look like softening demand. Read against the year-on-year comparison, it looks more like a plateau at an unusually high level: April, May and June 2026 volumes have all come in well above 2025's equivalent months, with year-on-year growth running as high as 43% in May and still near 39% in June. In other words, the market has not cooled — it has simply stopped accelerating after an extended period of outsized growth. China's Grip on the Trade Tightens Further China absorbed 67.61% of South Africa's total June export volume, reaffirming its position as by far the largest buyer of South African chrome ore. That concentration is consistent with — and arguably an intensification of — the pattern seen through 2025, when China absorbed a record 12.5 million tonnes of South African chrome ore across the full year, up 23.8% year-on-year, driven by high operating rates at Chinese ferrochrome smelters feeding the country's stainless steel industry. With Chinese buyers taking more than two-thirds of a single month's exports, South Africa's chrome ore trade is now more dependent than ever on the health of one downstream market: Chinese ferrochrome production and, by extension, Chinese stainless steel demand. That concentration cuts both ways — it has underpinned South Africa's export volumes through a period of domestic smelting weakness, but it also leaves the country's ore exporters unusually exposed to any slowdown in Chinese furnace utilisation or stainless steel output. Singapore and the UAE: Trading Gateways, Not End-Use Markets Singapore (7.85%) and the UAE (7.82%) rounded out the top three destinations in June, together accounting for close to a sixth of total export volume. Neither country is a meaningful chrome ore consumer or ferrochrome producer in its own right; both are established global commodity trading and logistics hubs. The UAE in particular is widely positioned — including in the government's own economic development literature — as a re-export and re-distribution gateway to the wider Middle East and African markets, leveraging its logistics infrastructure rather than domestic industrial demand. Singapore plays a broadly similar role in Asian commodity trading flows. Their appearance in the top three is therefore best read as a signal of trading and blending activity — ore passing through intermediary hubs before final delivery — rather than genuine new demand centres competing with China for South African tonnage. The Structural Story Underneath the Numbers The persistence of strong ore exports alongside continued weakness in South Africa's own ferrochrome smelting capacity reflects a structural realignment in the country's chromium value chain rather than a short-term fluctuation. High grid electricity costs, an ageing domestic furnace fleet, and persistent logistics bottlenecks have steadily eroded the competitiveness of local beneficiation, encouraging producers to route an increasing share of mined chrome toward raw-ore export instead. That dynamic was starkly illustrated at the company level in Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, which showed attributable ferrochrome production collapsing 75% to just 28,000 tonnes on extended smelter suspensions at Wonderkop and Boshoek, while chrome ore production held almost steady at 425,000 tonnes — the ore side of the business continuing to perform even as the alloy side went largely idle. At the same time, South Africa's supply base for chrome ore is arguably broadening rather than narrowing, even as dedicated ferrochrome capacity struggles. Several major platinum group metals producers — Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam Platinum, Eastplats, and project developer Southern Palladium at its Bengwenyama development — have all disclosed plans or results this year showing deliberate growth in chromite by-product recovery from their UG2 orebodies, treating chrome increasingly as a strategic parallel revenue stream rather than an incidental credit. That PGM-sector diversification adds a further source of tonnage to the ore-export pool, reinforcing the same pattern visible in the national trade data: more ore reaching the market, less of it being converted to ferrochrome domestically before it leaves the country. A Policy Response Still Working Through the System This is not an unnoticed trend within South Africa. In June 2025, Cabinet approved a coordinated set of interventions specifically aimed at curbing this shift — including realigning electricity tariffs for the ferrochrome industry, placing chrome ore under export control requiring an ITAC-administered export permit, and developing a chrome ore export tax alongside expanded Special Economic Zone incentives for smelters. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition subsequently opened the export-tax and permitting framework for public comment in November 2025. More than six months on, June's trade data — still showing raw ore exports running nearly 39% above year-ago levels — suggests that whatever combination of permitting and tariff relief has been implemented so far has not yet meaningfully redirected material away from export and back into domestic beneficiation. Whether the fuller export tax framework, once finalised, changes that balance is likely to be one of the more consequential open questions for South Africa's chrome value chain over the remainder of 2026. Bottom Line June's export data confirms that South Africa's chrome ore trade remains structurally tilted toward raw shipments rather than domestic beneficiation, with China's share of that trade deepening rather than diversifying, and Singapore and the UAE functioning as trading conduits rather than genuine alternative markets. With PGM producers adding to the ore supply base even as ferrochrome smelters remain constrained, and government's export-control measures still working through implementation, the divergence between chrome ore and ferrochrome trade flows looks set to remain a defining feature of South Africa's chromium sector through the rest of 2026.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

[SMM Analysis] Cost Fluctuations Under News-Driven Disturbances, Stainless Steel Profits Narrowed Stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem this week, leading to narrowed overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, the profit margin for the week stood at 1.7% when calculated with current raw materials, and 1.84% with inventory raw materials. Stainless steel mills still retained some smelting profits. For nickel-based raw materials, high-grade NPI prices consolidated on a strong note this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures experienced wild swings amid news of Indonesia’s RKAB supplementary quota, which led to fluctuations in NPI prices. Downstream steel mills are currently in the off-season for consumption and showed limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Moreover, the price swings further amplified the cautious wait-and-see sentiment, keeping overall purchasing activity subdued. As of Friday, the price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade in China rose 1.5 yuan/mt per nickel unit, to 1,138 yuan/mt per nickel unit on a cif basis including tax. Stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable this week. Affected by the Indonesian news, SS futures saw wild swings, while spot products pulled back slightly but showed notable resilience. High-grade NPI prices held up well, and with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, stainless steel scrap held steady, supported by its cost advantages. While expectations improved for better rigid demand amid the higher August production schedule, end-use demand in the off-season remained sluggish, steel mill profits were constrained, and the desire to bargain down prices persisted, limiting overall upside room. In the short term, prices are expected to maintain a broadly steady, consolidating pattern. As of Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai were unchanged at 10,450 yuan/mt. For chrome-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices pulled back slightly this week. Although the market expects stainless steel output to increase in August...