Today, the DCE Iron ore futures strengthened today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 796 yuan/mt, up 1.60% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 2-5 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, while steel mills restocked on an as-needed basis with limited inquiries

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

News Release: April 30, 2026 According to SMM statistics, China’s high-carbon ferrochrome output in April 2026 fell by 1.28% month-on-month but rose by 24.63% year-on-year, with notable regional divergence. The majority of the monthly output reduction came from Inner Mongolia in northern China. Affected by substation maintenance, ferrochrome producers in Fengzhen faced production restrictions, with output dipping slightly by 1.82%.

On April 30, 2026, DCE iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 796 yuan/mt, up 1.60% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 2-5 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, steel mills restocked on demand with few inquiries; overall spot transactions were lackluster. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 150.08 million mt, down 1.09 million mt MoM, showing slight destocking. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 3.305 million mt, up 118,000 mt WoW. Although hot metal production pulled back slightly WoW, the overall destocking trend indicated that iron ore demand remained relatively strong. Currently, restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday has largely concluded, and upward momentum driven by fundamentals is expected to weaken in the short term. On the other hand, affected by related policy adjustments, market panic emerged over iron ore and downstream trade liquidity, with sentiment continuing to ferment, driving iron ore spot prices to rise sharply. In the short term, iron ore prices may still hold up well, but close attention should be paid to potential impacts from shifts in market sentiment.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone DMC Transaction Center Continued to Rise, Shipments Performance of Downstream Products Diverged] The transaction center of China's silicone DMC market moved up this week, with mainstream transaction range at 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotations showed slight divergence. Monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,700 yuan/mt, while mainstream quotations in other regions reached 15,000 yuan/mt. Additionally, some enterprises primarily used their supplies for internal consumption, with only small volumes for exports, quoting higher at 15,500-15,900 yuan/mt.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China rose, with a quotation range of 10,550-10,650 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the same-specification stainless steel scrap off-cuts also strengthened, with a price range of 10,050-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,761.4 yuan/mt, while the cost using entirely high-grade NPI reached 15,134.31 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged significantly, driven by SHFE nickel's rally amid geopolitical conflicts, which in turn transmitted to the spot market and pushed stainless steel spot prices higher in tandem. The alternative raw material high-grade NPI also rose in sympathy, bullish sentiment continued to build, and stainless steel scrap prices followed suit, maintaining a strong trend. The recent rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further widened the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI. This core competitive edge continued to drive steel mills' preference for stainless steel scrap even amid persistent tax invoice issues plaguing the industry. Meanwhile, smelting margins at stainless steel mills gradually recovered, production enthusiasm remained high, production schedules stayed high, and procurement demand for stainless steel scrap remained solid, providing firm support for price rises. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a further strengthening pattern characterized by "futures leading, raw material linkage, and demand support." Various supportive factors jointly dominated market trends, and although tax invoice issues persisted, they did not significantly constrain the strong price momentum. Stainless steel scrap prices were expected to hold up well in the near term.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened, with stainless steel mill smelting profits further expanding. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, calculated based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 3.15% this week; if calculated based on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin was 5.41%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, sulfur supply tightened, driving SHFE nickel prices up significantly; combined with news related to Indonesian nickel ore, bullish expectations for high-grade NPI prices further strengthened. Recently, stainless steel mills have returned to profitability, increasing their acceptance of high-priced raw materials and enhancing procurement enthusiasm, pushing high-grade NPI prices up sharply within the week. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 38 yuan per nickel unit to 1,135 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices further strengthened this week. SS futures surged, driven by SHFE nickel's spike triggered by geopolitical conflicts; this transmitted to the spot market, with stainless steel and alternative raw material high-grade NPI rising in tandem, boosting bullish sentiment. The rapid rise in high-grade NPI prices further highlighted the cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap. Despite ongoing tax invoice issues, steel mills' preference for using scrap remained unchanged; combined with profit recovery and production schedules staying high, procurement demand was robust, providing strong price support. The overall pattern was "futures leading, raw materials moving in tandem, demand supporting," with tax invoice issues not significantly constraining the uptrend. Stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the near term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at approximately 10,600 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained generally stable this week. During the week, Tsingshan announced its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, further boosting ferrochrome market confidence; additionally, with stainless steel prices continuing to rise recently and production schedule expectations staying high, ferrochrome demand was unlikely to pull back significantly. However, ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, recent retail market transactions were sluggish, and market entities mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices relatively stable. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[Last Trading Week Before the Holiday: Spot Premiums Edged Up] Ningbo spot premiums edged up this week, with the weekly average price up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, Ningbo spot prices were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2606 contract, with a Shanghai premium of 20 yuan/mt.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 30: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged; SX-EW copper at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up slightly by 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today, as end-users carried out final restocking ahead of the holiday. On the last day before the holiday, market trading was quiet, and spot quotes remained at the previous day's level. Particularly on the trading side, affected by invoice-related issues, most participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, planning to resume trading after the Labour Day holiday. Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment was 2.2, down 0.02 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment was 3.45, down 0.15 (historical data available via the SMM database). Overall, market trading was sluggish ahead of the holiday, but spot quotes remained firm. Attention should be paid to inventory buildup during the Labour Day holiday.