SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

Today, the DCE Iron ore futures showed a weak trend today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 809.5 yuan/mt, down 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot transaction activity was relatively tepid.

SMM May 15 update: SMM #1 lead ingot was in the doldrums this week. Smelter offers remained generally firm, and spot prices of secondary refined lead and primary lead became inverted. At the beginning of the week, smelter offers diverged, with premiums shifting slightly from small discounts to marginal premiums. Downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement and relied on long-term contracts. Mid-week, as smelting losses widened, smelters held back from selling and held prices firm, with offers stabilizing at premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Market trading activity turned sluggish. Later in the week, some smelters resumed production and supply increased, weakening the sentiment to hold prices firm. Offers returned to near parity, but downstream sectors were in the off-season with insufficient rigid demand, and overall transactions remained weak. The decline in spot prices exacerbated smelting losses. As of May 14, large smelters posted losses of 249 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 452 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, lead ingot inventory buildup and weak downstream consumption are expected to keep lead prices in the doldrums, with smelter losses persisting. On the supply side, production resumptions at some smelters coexist with output cuts and shutdowns triggered by environmental protection and profitability concerns. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts is expected to intensify, and spot premiums are expected to move sideways within the range of parity to premiums of 50 yuan/mt.

On May 15, 2026, iron ore futures showed a weak trend. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 809.5 yuan/mt, down 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot transaction activity was relatively tepid. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 148.76 million mt, down 1.09 million mt WoW. Overall inventory saw slight destocking, with supply tightening marginally, though remaining relatively ample overall. Meanwhile, some blast furnaces were under maintenance, and daily average hot metal production pulled back slightly. Daily average port pick-up volume edged down 21,000 mt to 3.244 million mt. Although pig iron production pulled back due to individual blast furnaces entering maintenance, given the robust demand for steel outside China and relatively comfortable profit margins at steel mills, iron ore fundamentals remained well-supported. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term until new developments enter the market. [SMM Steel]

Spot market, SHFE lead prices were in the doldrums this week (May 11-15, 2026), with the price center continuing to shift downward. Downstream enterprises were cautious in procurement, focusing mainly on rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to purchase at high prices, and overall spot order trading was lackluster. Regionally, smelters in Henan mainly shipped via long-term contracts, with significant divergence in trader quotations, at discounts of 180-120 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract. Sources with large discounts gradually decreased as prices stabilized. Smelters in Hunan became more cautious in shipments after inventory declined, with most spot orders shipped at parity ex-factory. The spot discount pattern among traders narrowed WoW. Some sources from smelters in Jiangxi and Guangdong were sold out this week, with firm quotations. Overall, downstream enterprises slowed their procurement pace this week, only purchasing on dips as needed, and overall market transactions were weak.

Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 futures contract opened at 23,255 yuan/mt today before briefly rising to 23,380 yuan/mt, then gradually pulled back under pressure. The decline widened further in the afternoon session, with the intraday low touching 22,945 yuan/mt. Although there was a slight recovery near the close, it ultimately settled at 23,050 yuan/mt, down 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a drop of 1.73%. Spot side, some enterprises followed with slight price cuts driven by weakening aluminum prices, while others maintained stable pricing and adopted a wait-and-see approach due to elevated costs and tight compliant supply sources. Supply-demand structure perspective, demand side performance remained mediocre, suppressing pr

Early this week, the market continued to trade around geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and the rise in global long-end yields. US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, indicating continued employment resilience. Subsequently, US April CPI rose to 3.8% YoY and PPI to 6.0% YoY, with retail sales growing consecutively, further reinforcing market expectations of "reflation" and the US Fed maintaining a tight policy stance. Meanwhile, Japan's April corporate goods prices rose 4.9% YoY, and the 10-year JGB yield climbed to a nearly 29-year high, with Japan's long-end rate center shifting upward. Overall, the macro theme this week remained the resonance between US inflation and economic resilience, with rising JGB and US Treasury yields suppressing risk appetite, while recurring Middle East tensions and supply concerns provided support for copper prices, which rallied before pulling back. Fundamentals side, supply disruptions remained a key support for copper prices' rise this week. On one hand, recurring Middle East tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices fluctuating at highs and continuously pushing up smelting and logistics costs. On the other hand, the Peruvian government approved on May 11 state-owned oil company Petroperu to seek a $2 billion state-backed loan to maintain operations, indirectly confirming that the local energy system remained under strain, and market concerns over ore supply disruptions had not subsided. China's spot cargo side was affected by the approaching delivery month, with suppliers showing increased willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, and overall spot circulation remained tight. However, high copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchase willingness, with the market still dominated by rigid restocking demand. Inventory rebounded slightly after destocking, and fundamentals exhibited a supply-demand dual-weakness structure. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is unlikely to change significantly in the near term. If US inflation stays high and global long-end yields continue to rise, the US dollar and interest rate side will still cap copper prices to some extent. However, given that Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have not truly been resolved, coupled with ongoing risks on the ore and energy fronts, downside support for copper prices also remains strong. A short-term pullback is expected but with limited magnitude. LME copper is expected to fluctuate within $13,400-13,850/mt, and SHFE copper within 104,000-107,000 yuan/mt. Spot cargo side, supported by delivery logic and tight circulation, premiums are expected to remain firm, but downstream willingness to chase higher prices is limited under elevated prices, and overall trading activity may remain cautious. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt.

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices declined with fluctuations compared to the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower today at 190,000 yuan/mt, briefly dipping to an intraday low of 186,800 yuan/mt after the opening before rebounding. During the morning session, it moved sideways within the range of 191,000-194,000 yuan/mt. Around midday, it briefly surged to 194,900 yuan/mt but failed to hold, then quickly pulled back below the average price line. It weakened further toward the close, ultimately settling down 3.57% at 188,800 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 18,931 lots. In the spot market, as prices continued to decline, downstream purchase activities increased, though some enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with most transactions being spot order restocking driven by rigid demand. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed growing sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with some enterprises maintaining their willingness to sell on spot orders at prices above 200,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained active. Lithium carbonate prices continued their downward trend today. Macro perspective, overnight silver futures plunged 4.52%, with the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors under overall pressure. Market risk appetite declined significantly, and capital withdrew from the commodity sector, with lithium carbonate futures falling in tandem. Meanwhile, on the lithium carbonate supply side, previously concerning disruptions to lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe showed signs of easing. Yahua Group confirmed on May 13 that its Zimbabwe lithium concentrates export procedures had been completed and shipments had commenced. Sinomine Resource Group also indicated that lithium concentrates from its Zimbabwe mine had been progressively shipped from the mine. The improved expectations for ex-China lithium concentrates supply alleviated short-term tight supply expectations for lithium concentrates to some extent. Overall, under the dual pressure of weakening macro sentiment and improved supply-side expectations, although market inquiries and actual transactions remained active, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream persisted, and prices may still face adjustment pressure in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Weak Futures Dragged Down Stainless Steel Scrap, Cost Advantages Underpinned the Market This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with the quotation range at 10,600-10,700 yuan/mt; prices of the same-spec stainless steel scrap off-cuts in Foshan held steady, with the price range at 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost perspective, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,821.71 yuan/mt, while the cost of production entirely using high-grade NPI reached 15,173.94 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices declined and pulled back this week. SS futures were generally in the doldrums, with futures continuously under pressure, which in turn transmitted to the spot market, driving spot stainless steel finished product prices to pull back in tandem. The alternative raw material high-grade NPI also declined simultaneously, but its own raw material fundamentals remained relatively firm, limiting the price drop. As stainless steel spot prices trended downward, steel mills still retained certain smelting profits, production willingness stayed high, and steel mill production schedules showed no reduction. Meanwhile, with the limited decline in high-grade NPI, the cost advantages of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI became more prominent during the week. Even though industry tax invoice issues persisted, they did not affect steel mills' procurement pace, and procurement demand for stainless steel scrap with better cost advantages remained solid. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a pullback pattern characterized by "weak futures, resilient raw materials, and demand underpinning." Bearish futures dominated the short-term trend, but rigid demand and cost price spread advantages formed strong support. Tax invoices...