SMM, August 19 – Intraday, the SHFE lead 2610 contract swung wildly, opening at 15,950 yuan/mt, briefly dipping to the day’s low of 15,870 yuan/mt before rebounding, then moving sideways in the range of 15,905-15,935 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 15,930 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a gain of 0.16%. Total trading volume for the day was 64,045 contracts, an increase of 16,920 contracts from the previous trading day, while open interest decreased by 207 contracts to 79,974 contracts. The SMM #1 lead average price also rose 25 yuan/mt, with futures and spot prices moving largely in sync. Downstream demand was dominated by just-in-time procurement. Primary lead suppliers sold at market prices, with a clear north-south divergence; secondary lead suppliers also sold at market prices, but circulating supply was limited. Overall, in the short term, SHFE lead continues to consolidate at highs, drifting higher. Going forward, attention should be paid to the improvement in spot transactions between the north and south, the impact of smelter operating rate changes on inventory, and changes in fund open interest for the SHFE lead 2610 contract.

Iron ore futures traded firmer today. The DCE most-active contract I2701 settled at RMB 712/mt, up 0.78% from the previous trading day. Spot prices at Qingdao Port declined by RMB 2-3/mt. Traders were reasonably active in offering, but mill purchases remained largely restocking on a just-in-need basis, leaving overall spot transactions fairly subdued.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Weaken, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Mediocre, Awaiting Peak Season Validation SMM, August 19 – SS futures maintained a subdued consolidation trend. Dragged lower by the broad decline in nonferrous metals, SS prices pulled back in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,260 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures pulled back somewhat, the overall decline was relatively small. Stainless steel traders mostly held their offers steady, with only occasional small discounts. Overall transactions remained sluggish, showing no signs of recovery ahead of the “September-October peak season.” The Most-Traded SS Futures Contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 14,260 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 410-610 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge, Wuxi average price was flat, Foshan average price was flat; the price of Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil fell by 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotation was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, stainless steel futures were continuously disturbed by macro sentiment, maintaining an overall weak pullback trend. During the week, news on Indonesia’s RKAB nickel ore approval repeatedly disrupted industry expectations. Coupled with the hawkish tone of the US Fed’s policy stance and the unresolved US-Iran geopolitical conflict, macro uncertainty stayed high. Multiple bearish factors dragged SS futures down continuously throughout the week, with bearish sentiment dominating the market and futures movement...

[ADC12 Daily Price Review: Aluminum Alloy Futures Consolidate and Pull Back, Spot Prices Generally Fall] The ADC12 market price was generally weak today, with most enterprises cutting prices by around 100 yuan/mt, while a few temporarily maintained stability.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract was quoted at premiums ranging from 50 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 106,870 yuan/mt, down 935 yuan/mt from the prior session;

Global coal markets generally strengthened over the past week, although performance varied across regions and grades. European thermal coal indices rose above $124/t, supported by firmer oil and gas prices, geopolitical risks and weaker renewable and nuclear generation during the heatwave. South African 6,000 kcal/kg high-CV coal exceeded $109/t, with additional support from Indian enquiries and a 12 August train derailment that disrupted deliveries to Richards Bay Coal Terminal. China’s Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR spot price strengthened above $126/t. Coal stocks at nine major ports declined by 0.87 mnt week on week to 26.51 mnt, while inventories at six major coastal thermal power plants fell by 0.25 Mt to 14.01 Mt. Lower inventories and tighter mine safety inspections supported domestic prices and increased Chinese traders’ interest in imported blending coal. Indonesian 5,900 GAR coal rose to $104.5/t, while 4,200 GAR material approached $64/t. Australian thermal coal prices were mixed, with 6,000 high-CV coal falling below $128/t while 5,500 mid-CV material strengthened to $95–96/t. Meanwhile, limited availability of premium metallurgical coal, renewed purchasing and improved Chinese market sentiment lifted the Australian HCC index to $224/t.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Night Session Weakens, Cost-Supported Consolidation] Overnight, the Aluminum Alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,025 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,040 yuan/mt, a low of 22,920 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,965 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous settlement, a decline of 0.52%.

Polysilicon, wafer and cell price spikes lifted supplier offers in August, while weak international demand kept China-port FOB transactions near their early-month lows.

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions

Iron ore futures firmed modestly today. The DCE most-active contract I2701 settled at RMB 714/mt, up 0.85% from the previous session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose RMB 2-3/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were reasonably active in offering