SMM April 22 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 310 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,455 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,355 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory resumed its decline after only one day of increase, primarily due to reduced arrivals. With continued inventory decline coupled with relatively small copper price fluctuations, suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm. During the early session, standard-quality copper was quoted at 230 yuan/mt, but was quickly snapped up, and suppliers continued to raise prices for shipments. Eventually, mainstream transaction prices for standard-quality copper rose to 230 yuan/mt. Overall trading activity was better than the previous day. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.45, up 0.07 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.69, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, inventory hit a new low for the year, and suppliers actively held prices firm. Overall trading activity was better than the previous day.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further to around 250 yuan/mt, with the arbitrage window expanding further. The willingness to divert cargoes from east China to south China is expected to strengthen going forward, which is likely to redirect available cargoes from the Shanghai market and provide marginal support for local spot discounts. In addition, in the current Shanghai spot copper market, cargoes with invoices dated this month are relatively scarce on the trading side, with some suppliers opting to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month. The price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month remained at 30-40 yuan/mt. Demand side, copper prices are currently moving sideways, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current copper prices may improve somewhat, with ordering willingness rebounding slightly, though purchases still mainly center on just-in-time procurement. Overall, driven by the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage, and divergence in invoice structures, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] In the Shanghai spot copper market, cargoes with invoices dated this month were relatively scarce on the trading side. Some suppliers opted to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month. The price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month was currently around 30-40 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,286/mt, with the center fluctuating upward to a high of $13,330/mt in the early session before declining, touching a low of $13,139/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing at $13,154.5/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 279,000 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,300 yuan/mt, with the center rising to a high of 102,810 yuan/mt in the early session, before the center declined near the end of the session to a low of 102,060 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 102,100 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 1,148 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

According to data from the online query platform of the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in March 2026 totaled 2,629,996.23 mt, up 13.84% MoM and 9.99% YoY. Shipments from major supplying countries such as Chile, Peru, and Mongolia all increased to varying degrees. However, spot copper concentrate TCs in China remained at low levels, and the tight ore supply situation continued. Below is the supply breakdown from major source countries for China's copper ore imports since March 2020: Data source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Composite)

SMM April 21 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 24-consecutive-day decline, mainly due to increased arrivals and weakened consumption. Despite a slight increase in inventory, copper prices fell, and suppliers continued to hold a bearish outlook on future inventory, thus actively holding prices firm. During the morning session, standard-quality copper was already quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt. Downstream manufacturers placed limited spot orders, with today's transactions mainly driven by long-term contract pickups, and overall trading sentiment was lukewarm. Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment today was 2.38, up 0.07 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.62, up 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, inventory edged up after ending the 24-consecutive-day decline, but suppliers still held prices firm for shipments, and overall trading was lukewarm.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237/mt, touched a low of $13,213/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,330/mt and then began to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing at $13,245/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 478 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,500 yuan/mt, quickly tested a high of 102,830 yuan/mt early in the session, then copper prices dropped sharply to a low of 102,280 yuan/mt, and subsequently fluctuated downward to ultimately close at 102,490 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, an increase of 2,351 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw a slight improvement in orders WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm; meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower offer prices for shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area decreased by 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while the Jiangsu area decreased by 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure between futures contracts, and some selling pressure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM April 20 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals. Despite the significant inventory drawdown, rising copper prices dampened downstream restocking enthusiasm, and suppliers could only maintain last Friday's prices, unable to hold prices firm further. Guangdong copper cathode purchasing sentiment today was 2.31, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and shipments sentiment was 3.6, down 0.03 from the previous trading day (historical data available via the SMM database). Overall, the sharp inventory decline failed to offset rising copper prices. Premiums today remained flat compared with last Friday, and overall trading activity was weak.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,715 yuan/mt, up 885 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.