Multiple factors on the macro front significantly disturbed market sentiment in the rebar market in 2025.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed Dovish Tone Resurfaces, Aluminum Prices Continue to Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, on the macro front, domestic macro trends are favorable; the US Fed's monetary policy shows divergence, with dovish voices resurfacing within the Fed, and overseas macro sentiment remains cautious. Earlier suppression of consumption by high aluminum prices has delayed some demand, while fundamentals provide some support for prices; overseas, focus remains on the progress of production cuts at the Icelandic aluminum plant. Aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term.

SMM Nickel News on September 22: Macro and Market News: (1) The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, through the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, issued a letter numbered 1533/MB.07/DJB.T/2025, imposing administrative penalties on 190 mining companies that failed to pay reclamation guarantees, ordering them to temporarily halt operations. The decision was signed by the Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno. This penalty is a follow-up measure after three previous administrative warnings. The suspension period can last up to 60 days, and if the enterprises can submit and obtain approval for their reclamation plan documents and pay the reclamation guarantee for 2025, the penalty can be lifted. Tri Winarno emphasized that if the enterprises still fail to fulfill their obligations within the stipulated time, their mining licenses may be permanently revoked. (2) On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with US President Trump, exchanging candid and in-depth views on the current Sino-US relations and issues of mutual concern, providing strategic guidance for the stable development of Sino-US relations in the next phase. The call was pragmatic, positive, and constructive. Spot Market: On September 22, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 121,300-124,100 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,300-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel spot premiums and discounts was -100-200 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2510 contract closed at 121,300 yuan/mt during the night session, down 20 yuan/mt (a decrease of 0.02%). In the morning session, SHFE nickel surged before pulling back, closing at 121,280 yuan/mt by midday, a decrease of 0.03%. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed administrative penalties on 190 mining companies that failed to pay reclamation guarantees, ordering them to temporarily halt operations, leaving uncertainties in the mine supply. The US Fed's 25BP interest rate cut in September met market expectations, with macro-level bullish factors now largely exhausted. The dot plot indicates that there could be two more interest rate cuts this year, and one more in 2026. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel reference range at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel Update on August 21: Macro News: (1) On Wednesday, the minutes of the US Fed's July meeting showed that at last month's meeting, where it was decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, only two officials voted against (advocating for an interest rate cut) and did not receive public support from their colleagues. The minutes stated, "Almost all participants judged that maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% at this meeting was appropriate." (2) On August 18, 2025, Xie Feng, China's ambassador to the US, met with Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. They exchanged views on issues of mutual concern, including Sino-US relations and economic and trade cooperation. Ambassador Xie introduced China's efforts in accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-level opening up, elaborated on China's principled position on developing Sino-US relations, and expressed hope that the Council on Foreign Relations would continue to play a positive role in enhancing mutual understanding between China and the US and promoting the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino-US relations. Spot Market: Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 119,700-122,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel are quoted at 2,400-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel spot premiums and discounts is -100-300 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract opened lower and fluctuated rangebound, with no significant price changes. By midday, the SHFE nickel quote was 119,940 yuan/mt, down 0.13% for the day. Currently, nickel prices are mainly influenced by macro sentiment. Expectations of loose domestic policies and a phase of US dollar pullback provide support to nickel prices, but upside room remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainties and high inventory pressure. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, driven by weak fundamentals and supportive macro sentiment, within a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.

SMM's Latest Market Update (July 30): Mainstream transaction prices for Pr-Nd oxide: 531,500 yuan/mt (up 11,000 yuan from the previous day), mainstream transaction prices for Pr-Nd alloy: 645,000 yuan/mt (up 20,000 yuan from the previous day). In addition to Pr-Nd oxide and alloy, single Pr oxide, single Nd oxide, Pr metal, and Nd metal all showed significant increases exceeding 10,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continue to Rise with Strong Market Bullish Sentiment] This week, the price of Pr-Nd oxide saw a significant increase. It is understood that due to the impact of Kachin's relevant announcements on rare earth ore mining and the news that rare earth metal ore imports reached zero in June, most industry players expect a tightening of subsequent market supply. At the same time, there has been a noticeable increase in demand from downstream metal end-users, driving up the prices of Pr-Nd products across the board.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Fluctuate Significantly, with Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in the Market] This week, the price of Pr-Nd oxide fluctuated frequently. Driven by speculation on upstream news factors at the beginning of the week, the price of Pr-Nd surged significantly. Meanwhile, the market's fear of high prices gradually emerged, and traders began to sell, leading to a brief jump initially and then pull back in the price of Pr-Nd oxide. However, most industry participants remained bullish on the future market. With the gradual increase in downstream purchase willingness, the price of Pr-Nd rose rapidly again towards the end of the week.