The 2026 H1 manganese market trended up first and down later, with high-level volatility driven by persistent friction between rigid high-cost support and weak terminal demand. The H2 market is poised for cost-supported limited recovery. Firm overseas ore prices will underpin the market, while high port inventories cap upside. Silicomanganese prices are expected to trend higher on production cuts and destocking, with rebound room constrained by demand recovery progress.

On August 21, the SM2601 contract opened at 5850 and finally closed at 5838 yuan/mt, down 0.10%. The highest price was 5870 yuan/mt and the lowest price was 5826 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 161,343 lots and open interest was 288,840 lots. Cost side, manganese ore prices declined but the drop was limited. Coupled with high coke prices, the cost support for SiMn alloy remained strong. Futures side, today's SiMn futures prices fluctuated, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment among SiMn alloy producers. Spot side, today's spot SiMn prices were stable. Given the impact of futures fluctuations, most alloy producers held back from selling, paying close attention to changes in the futures market.