SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[Producer Daily Output Increase Covers Maintenance Reduction; Transaction Recovery Fails to Halt Factory Inventory Buildup] During June 12-18, magnesium weekly output rose WoW, with maintenance at some enterprises not offsetting the supply increase. Factory inventory edged up slightly, while social inventory diverged, as producing regions destocked and port inventories built up. Weak exports put short-term supply-demand under pressure.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review] In news, some steel mills in certain regions have accepted the eighth round of coke price increases, with wet-quenched coke up by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching up by 55 yuan/mt, effective June 22. Supply side, affected by the ongoing stringent safety inspections in Shanxi, coking coal supply remains tight, and the coking coal price increase has consistently outpaced the coke price increase; most coke producers are still incurring losses, and to reduce losses, these producers are voluntarily intensifying production restrictions, leading to a short-term decline in coke supply. Demand side, steel mill operating rates currently remain high, and due to the tight coke supply, their coke inventory replenishment has fallen short of expectations, leaving them with continued restocking demand for coke.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Downstream Purchasing Weakness and Insufficient Export Orders, Magnesium Ingot Market Remained Weak] This week, the overall market for dolomite and magnesium-related products was stable, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Quarries in Wutai, Shanxi, halted production due to environmental protection requirements, leading to localized tightness in high-grade dolomite, but nationwide inventory remained ample. Downstream users purchased as needed, and prices stayed stable. In major production areas, magnesium ingot supply was plentiful, and downstream only made just-in-time procurement. The market was in a stalemate, with sluggish export orders and strong wait-and-see sentiment. Magnesium powder followed the raw material trend; the industry was in the off-season, and both domestic and export transactions were mediocre. Magnesium alloy production was steady, but enterprises experienced divergent order situations. Inventories at some producers rose, and the increase in low-priced supply widened price spreads. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified across the entire industry chain. In the short term, price fluctuations for each product will be limited, and the market will continue to run steadily.

Since the start of June, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers over magnesium prices has been intensifying. The EXW price of 99.90% magnesium ingot (Fugu, Shenmu) moved sideways around 16,300–16,400 yuan/mt, with the trading range narrowing significantly. The magnesium market was mired in a supply-demand stalemate, as end-users' acceptance of high magnesium prices declined markedly, while primary magnesium smelters held their bottom line supported by costs.

[SMM Magnesium Market Analysis: Multiple Bullish and Bearish Factors at Play, Supply-Demand Tug-of-War Unresolved, How Will the Magnesium Market Perform Going Forward?] Since June, the supply-demand tug-of-war over magnesium prices has been intensifying. The EXW price of 99.90% magnesium ingot (from Fugu and Shenmu) has moved sideways around 16,300–16,400 yuan/mt, with its fluctuation range narrowing sharply. The magnesium market is stuck in a supply-demand stalemate. Downstream end-users' acceptance of high magnesium prices has visibly decreased, while primary magnesium smelters, supported by costs, have held the bottom line. As a result, magnesium prices are locked in a pattern where they are hard to either rise or fall.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review] On the news front, leading coke enterprises have initiated the eighth round of coke price increase, to be implemented at midnight on June 20. Supply side, coke price increases hardly offset the rising raw material costs. Most coke enterprises are loss-making with low production willingness. Loss-making enterprises continue to impose production restrictions, leading to reduced coke output. Currently, coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their coke inventories remain persistently low. Demand side, steel mills' blast furnace operations are stable and utilization rates stay high. Their coke inventories are continuously destocking, and rigid demand support is ample.

I. Coal-to-Hydrogen For Shandong anthracite, the transaction range was [1,830-1,930] and the average hydrogen cost was 1.8 yuan/m³. For Shanxi anthracite, the transaction range was [1,040-1,120] and the average hydrogen cost was 1.22 yuan/m³. For Hebei anthracite, the transaction range was [1,520-1,600] and the average hydrogen cost was 1.62 yuan/m³. For Henan anthracite, the transaction range was [1,130-1,230] and the average hydrogen cost was 1.32 yuan/m³. II. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen For Pearl River Delta natural gas, the transaction range was [6,600-6,620] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.04 yuan/m³. For Zhejiang natural gas, the transaction range was [6,520-6,800] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.04 yuan/m³. For Guangxi natural gas, the transaction range was [6,560-6,890] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.04 yuan/m³. For eastern Guangdong natural gas, the transaction range was [6,600-6,620] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.01 yuan/m³. For Henan natural gas, the transaction range was [6,260-6,470] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.95 yuan/m³. For Hebei natural gas, the transaction range was [6,210-6,595] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.94 yuan/m³. For Hubei natural gas, the transaction range was [6,540-6,900] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.08 yuan/m³. For Guizhou natural gas, the transaction range was [6,650-6,990] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.11 yuan/m³. For Sichuan natural gas, the transaction range was [6,560-6,825] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.08 yuan/m³. For Shanxi natural gas, the transaction range was [6,220-6,330] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.86 yuan/m³. For Shandong natural gas, the transaction range was [6,345-6,610] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.99 yuan/m³. For Heilongjiang natural gas, the transaction range was [6,170-6,440] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.89 yuan/m³. For Inner Mongolia natural gas, the transaction range was [6,340-6,580] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.91 yuan/m³. III. Propane-to-Hydrogen For South China propylene oxide, the transaction range was [6,610-6,610] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.75 yuan/m³. For east China propylene oxide, the transaction range was [6,330-6,600] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.68 yuan/m³. For Northeast China propylene oxide, the transaction range was [5,890-6,300] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.49 yuan/m³. For Shandong propylene oxide, the transaction range was [6,130-6,530] and the average hydrogen cost was 3.63 yuan/m³. IV. Methanol-to-Hydrogen For east China methanol, the transaction range was [2,920-3,230] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.63 yuan/m³. For central China methanol, the transaction range was [2,820-3,190] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.62 yuan/m³. For north China methanol, the transaction range was [2,800-2,880] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.44 yuan/m³. For south China methanol, the transaction range was [3,230-3,250] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.73 yuan/m³. For northwest China methanol, the transaction range was [2,600-2,830] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.35 yuan/m³. For southwest China methanol, the transaction range was [2,960-2,980] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.6 yuan/m³. For northeast China methanol, the transaction range was [3,030-3,040] and the average hydrogen cost was 2.6 yuan/m³.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quotation for N-type recharging polysilicon is 32-34.2 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remain generally weak. A few large-volume orders are currently under negotiation, with the market watching for subsequent outcomes and policy developments. Wafers: Market prices for 183mm wafers stand at 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.20 yuan/piece. The low-end prices of 183mm and 210N wafers also show a downward trend, widening the price range across all wafer sizes. Top-tier players are holding prices, while smaller enterprises have concluded deals at lower prices.