[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Intraday copper prices declined, with the SHFE copper 2607 contract trading mainly in the range of 102,700 yuan/mt to 103,400 yuan/mt. According to SMM, affected by this, some downstream copper rod enterprises saw a release of orders, which were characterized by "small volumes and high frequency." The willingness of end-users to buy the dip gradually emerged, and market purchasing sentiment recovered somewhat.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the intraday copper price center is expected to shift lower, boosting downstream buyers' willingness to restock at lower prices, with some processing enterprises reporting order releases. The month spread structure has shifted from contango to backwardation. Suppliers' delivery profits from holding positions rose, with a strong reluctance to sell. Low-priced available cargoes on the market were tight. After the quick deals of discounted materials in early trading, quotes continued to be raised, and the premium for high-quality copper has widened to 60-100 yuan/mt. Supply side, SMM recorded that Shanghai's social inventory on June 11 was 155,700 mt, down 11,400 mt from June 8, mainly due to concentrated maintenance by domestic smelters and reduced imported arrivals, with spot circulation remaining tight. Overall, under the combined effect of delivery logic, backwardation structure support, and marginal consumption improvement, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain a premium and sustain a firm trend.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Approaching the delivery of the SHFE copper 2606 contract, coinciding with copper prices falling to the range of 103,300-104,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing sentiment improved. Against the backdrop of declines in both domestic and imported supplies, the Shanghai region continued destocking, and Shanghai spot copper premiums further rose intraday compared to yesterday. Currently, mainstream deliverable sources are hard to find at discount quotes.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Nearing delivery, the inter-month contango spread remains in the 70-10 yuan/mt range. Suppliers are optimistic about near-term premiums, with strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling. After standard-quality copper cargoes at a discount of 20 yuan/mt were quickly traded in early business, low-priced cargoes became hard to find in the market. From the demand side, downstream buyers’ acceptance of current premium offers is limited, with overall demand largely need-based and limited willingness to chase higher prices. The discount for non-registered copper remains at 200-180 yuan/mt, indicating that overall consumption support is not strong. On balance, amid the tug-of-war between delivery-logic-backed firm offers and limited downstream acceptance, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain the current pattern tomorrow, with the center of premiums possibly shifting slightly higher.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,767.5/mt, fluctuated upward in early trading to touch a high of $13,813/mt, before the price center gradually shifted lower to dip to $13,518/mt, eventually settling at $13,559.5/mt, a decline of 0.23%. Trading volume stood at 23,000 lots, open interest at 266,000 lots, down 5,003 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,210 yuan/mt, initially rising to 105,670 yuan/mt, then the price center kept moving lower, touching a low of 103,660 yuan/mt near the close, a decline of 0.34%. Trading volume reached 62,600 lots, open interest 161,000 lots, down 44 lots from the prior session, also reflecting long liquidation.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, approaching delivery, the C-month price spread holds between 70 yuan/mt and -20 yuan/mt, with suppliers, bullish on near-term premiums, holding back from selling. In addition, SMM understands that some enterprises have exported spot cargoes to bonded warehouses, tightening available supply. Moreover, the import window remains closed, limiting the inflow of ex-China cargoes. Overall, supported by consumption demand and delivery-related dynamics, the discount of Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 contract is expected to continue narrowing tomorrow, with some brands likely to remain at parity or a slight premium.

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, last Friday (June 5) the US May non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, and the March and April non-farm payrolls figures were revised upward. Market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike this year intensified, pushing the US dollar index back above the 100 mark and exerting notable pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after the copper price decline, end-user dip-buying sentiment recovered, with active pricing and orders significantly increasing compared with last Friday, boosting overall market trading activity. Meanwhile, suppliers’ willingness to sell at low prices weakened, and today’s spot discount for SHFE copper narrowed markedly from earlier levels. From the perspective of delivery dynamics, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. As delivery approaches, suppliers are more inclined to ship to delivery warehouses, which is likely to further tighten the availability of low-priced cargo and provide support for the spot discount. The spot discount is expected to continue narrowing before delivery.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Last Friday (June 5), US May non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, and March and April non-farm payrolls data were revised up. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike within the year intensified, lifting the US dollar index back above the 100 mark and exerting significant downward pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after the decline in copper prices, end-user dip-buying sentiment improved, with active price fixing. Meanwhile, suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices weakened. Today, the Shanghai spot copper discount narrowed noticeably from earlier levels; orders increased markedly from last Friday, and overall market trading activity picked up. Currently, domestic standard-quality copper is offered at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, while non-registered copper is offered at a discount of 270 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From a supply-demand perspective, consumption showed improvement compared to earlier. According to SMM, some suppliers reported an increase in downstream enterprise orders. Approaching delivery, the spread between the nearby SHFE copper contracts narrowed slightly. Buoyed by delivery-related support, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm rose somewhat, and Shanghai spot copper premiums edged up. In addition, import losses continued to widen, weakening the impetus for overseas cargo inflows, and supply-side increments were limited. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,874.5/mt, dipped to $13,858/mt in early trading, then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,785/mt before staying high and moving sideways, ultimately closing at $13,904/mt, up 0.86%, with trading volume at 21,000 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots, down 1,063 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 106,080 yuan/mt, touching a low of 105,950 yuan/mt right at the open, then the center shifted upward to probe 106,800 yuan/mt, ultimately moving sideways to close at 106,320 yuan/mt, up 1.11%, with trading volume at 48,000 lots and open interest at 176,000 lots, down 1,169 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bears reducing positions.