On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

Silver prices rebounded and rose today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell and stayed on the sidelines, while downstream buyers generally negotiated prices and bought the dip. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from holders of national-standard silver ingots were quoted at premiums of 100-150 yuan/kg against TD, or at premiums of 50-80 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Only a small volume was traded in early trading. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed and silver prices surged, downstream purchasing interest declined markedly. Although some suppliers were reluctant to sell and remained on the sidelines due to costs and other factors, some sellers in the market cut prices and sold at premiums of 0-20 yuan/kg against the 2604 contract. Spot market quotations varied widely, buyers and sellers engaged in intense bargaining, downstream enterprises made small-volume purchases on dips, and market transactions turned subdued.

[SMM Morning Zinc Briefing: Stronger US Dollar Index Put LME Zinc Under Pressure and Slightly Lower]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,095/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated downward along the daily average line, hitting an intraday high of $3,097/mt. Near the close, LME zinc fell to a low of $3,027/mt, and finally closed down at $3,038.5/mt, down $64.5/mt, a decline of 2.08%, while trading volume decreased to 11,298 lots...

[SMM Midday Tin Commentary: Improving Macro Sentiment Drove a Rebound in Tin Prices, While Follow-Through in Spot Transactions Remained Limited]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. After copper prices jumped, downstream procurement sentiment pulled back, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels. From the market structure perspective, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some brands continuing to offload cargo, putting pressure on discounts. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a wait-and-see stance, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and buying on dips. It is worth noting that the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper narrowed somewhat from the previous period, indicating that the market trading structure has become more rational, with actual consumption demand becoming the dominant force at the current stage. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

[SMM Daily Chrome Commentary: Cost Support Kept Offers Firm, with Limited Recent Market Fluctuations] March 25, 2026: Chrome ore quotations saw no adjustment, while low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome prices were raised somewhat...

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.