[SMM Daily Review: PPI Cools More Than Expected but Silver Prices Lack Momentum for Rebound, with Rate Hike Expectations and Geopolitical Risks Continuing to Weigh] SMM, July 16 - US June PPI cooled more than expected, but US Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone. Compounded by escalating geopolitical conflicts, rate hike expectations persisted, and silver prices lacked momentum for a rebound. The spot market saw weak supply and demand, with premiums continuing to decline.

[SMM Daily Review: US CPI Cools More Than Expected, Silver Prices Rebounded Technically] SMM, July 15 – US June CPI turned negative MoM, pushing back expectations for rate hikes and allowing silver prices to rebound. Spot cargo demand was soft, and the transaction center leaned toward the lower end.

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Talks May Resume, Silver Price Undergoes Minor Recovery] SMM, July 10 - The prospect of US-Iran negotiations resuming and a pullback in the US dollar led to a technical recovery in precious metals. In the spot market, premiums continued to edge lower, with transactions near parity and demand remaining sluggish.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Drops Over 6% This Week Amid Macro Pressure and Geopolitical Shocks] Silver prices rose and then fell this week, dropping approximately 6.34% for the week, with a trading range of 14,194-15,220 yuan/kg. A weak nonfarm payrolls figure initially boosted prices, but escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish Fed minutes later in the week formed a dual drag, triggering sharp pullbacks for three consecutive sessions. Spot premiums weakened alongside the retreat in silver prices, with both supply and demand staying weak and trading activity subdued. In the near term, attention turns to US CPI data and geopolitical developments, while over the medium-to-long term, central bank gold purchases continue to provide underlying support.

Platinum prices were in the doldrums today. On the macro front, the release of the US Fed minutes was interpreted as hawkish by the market. Combined with repeated US-Iran tensions during the week, this pushed up oil prices while increasing concerns about Fed interest rate hikes. In the morning session, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 394.95 yuan/g, down 2.46%. The inverted spread between the best ask price of platinum 9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and GFEX PT2608 remained at around 6 yuan/g. Spot market, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The discount in mainstream quotations narrowed slightly compared to the previous trading day. Suppliers' quotations were mainly on par with or at a slight premium to the most-traded GFEX contract. Downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement as futures prices declined. Overall transactions in the platinum spot market were normal today.

Platinum prices continued to consolidate today. On the macro front, geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and frequent vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz further jeopardized the peace agreement between the two sides, driving up oil prices and adding to concerns over further US Fed rate hikes. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2608 closed at 404.35 yuan/g, edging up 0.33%. The discount of the best ask price for Pt9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange against the GFEX PT2608 contract widened to around 6 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream platinum quotations were at a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the PT2608 contract, with the discount level basically flat from the previous trading day. Downstream consumption was weak and wait-and-see sentiment was prevalent, making transactions at the higher end of the quoted range difficult. Overall, spot platinum trading remained sluggish on the day.

[SMM Daily Review: Middle East Tensions Heat Up, Silver Prices Under Pressure, Spot Premiums Stable while Trading Weak] SMM July 8 – The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up oil price expectations, but the technical rebound in precious metals has peaked, and the overall picture has returned to a pattern of being under pressure. In the spot market, transactions were concentrated from parity to small premiums, with demand weak and a wait-and-see stance prevailing.

July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds

Published: Jul 04, 2026 - 2:01 AM (Kitco News) – Even as U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar continue to limit gold’s upside, growing diversification demand, central bank buying and ETF inflows should support further price gains for the yellow metal by the end of 2026, according to HSBC. "Gold did not rally during the Middle East conflict and has largely moved in tandem with equities,” HSBC Global Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels and Global Head of Wealth Insights Lucia Ku wrote. “Our analysis indicates that US yields are the primary driver of gold prices. We believe gold may remain range-bound in the near term amid elevated real yields and a stronger USD. However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank buying and steady ETF inflows should support gold prices over the medium term.” “We continue to view gold as an effective diversifier against broader portfolio risks." Sels and Ku said their analysis indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are currently acting as the primary driver of gold’s price action. “When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset increases, putting pressure on gold prices,” they said. “Moreover, gold has been less effective as an equity hedge in 2026, having largely moved in tandem with equities.” HSBC believes gold will likely remain rangebound in the near term in the face of elevated real yields and a strong U.S. dollar. “However, demand for portfolio diversification, central bank purchases and steady ETF inflows continue to support our bullish view on gold and its role as a diversifier against broader portfolio risks,” they said. “We anticipate further upside for gold by year-end." On May 11, James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC, said that gold has performed exactly as it should throughout the Iran conflict . “The demand has been good out of China,” Steel said. “The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium – the difference between the domestic price in China and the global price – is around $20, indicating strong domestic demand in China, which is mostly on the institutional side. It's interesting; it's less on jewelry and coins and small bars, which we have seen traditionally, and more on the large bars, more for institutions, because we had some regulatory reform in both China and India. Now the top insurance companies in China are allowed to accumulate bullion, and asset managers in India are allowed to accumulate it as well.” “But in addition to that, we saw surprisingly strong buying in the latest data from the central bank, from the People's Bank of China, who bought 8.1 tonnes for the last month's data.” Steel was asked what he learned from gold’s peak around $5,400 per ounce in late January, and its subsequent decline amid the Middle East conflict. “Well, I think the run up was a little robust,” he said. “We were bringing in a lot of money that had not been in the market for quite some time, or had not traded gold at all. One could argue that the market had become overly long, particularly when you look at CFTC data and other things we have available now.” “There's been a lot of critics of the bullion market saying that the decline since the strikes on Iran and escalating oil prices, [claiming] that gold is not a safe haven, that it’s failed in some sense,” Steel said. “I would argue exactly the opposite, because as the oil went up and we got restoked inflationary fears, and bond yields rose, and the dollar rose, equities declined. In that atmosphere, ready cash was needed. And that's what gold provides you.” “We did see liquidation in the gold market, but mostly as a reaction to the financial market,” he added. “In a sense, gold was an insurance policy, and that insurance policy was being cashed in.” Steel was also questioned on his views of gold’s historical relationship with oil prices. “Well, that's interesting, because I'm old enough to remember when it was a positive relationship,” he replied. “We've done some work on this. In the 1970s, gold was positively correlated with oil: Oil ran up, and so did gold. In the 1980s, that was the same; oil fell and gold also fell.” “Now, that correlation seemed to break apart as we got into the 90s, as oil was a less significant part of the global economy,” he said. “That correlation is now only about 0.15, or even negative at times… It's negative at the moment.” Finally, Steel was asked whether he views gold as one of several alternative assets within investor portfolios, or whether he sees it as a standalone asset. “Well, I think you could argue that it is an alternative asset,” he said. “It’s certainly quite unique, in the sense that it's a hard asset and it's also highly liquid. It doesn't correlate to Apple or Nvidia, it tends not to, over the long run anyway. Things like Canadian farmland, for instance, that's also a hard asset, but you can't liquidate it quickly. And that's the beauty of gold. It's both a hard asset, and it's highly liquid, highly traded.” “But what you have touched on, and I think we will see it back again, is many asset managers who never before have included gold in their portfolio, are beginning to do that, because they're looking for alternatives.” And on April 2, Sels and Ku said that despite gold’s recent underperformance, the rise of cross-asset correlations makes the yellow metal more valuable than ever as a portfolio diversifier, and they remain bullish on gold’s long-term outlook . Sels and Ku reiterated their constructive outlook on gold over the next six months, and said the bank is maintaining its Overweight positioning. "Inflation concerns have also led to rate volatility and a repricing of monetary policy expectations,” they noted. “Policymakers are likely to maintain current interest rates for some time before easing later. We continue to seek quality yields from investment-grade credit and EM local currency bonds for income generation.” “However, as cross-asset correlations have increased, we use gold and alternative assets to enhance diversification,” Sels and Lu underlined. “Despite the recent pullback, we remain bullish on gold over the medium to long term due to its diversification benefits and safe-haven demand.” The analysts added that they still expect gold’s recent headwinds to be short-lived, as the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. “Gold continues to serve as a compelling portfolio diversifier amid geopolitical uncertainty and central bank buying,” they wrote. HSBC has held fast to their positive outlook for the yellow metal throughout the recent pullback. On March 30, analysts at HSBC Asset Management said gold is behaving more like a risk asset in 2026, selling off sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar, but the de-dollarization trend still makes it a good long-term investment . "Moves in the gold price since the Iran conflict broke out have defied expectations,” the analysts wrote. “The conventional playbook assumed that mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty would naturally boost the yellow metal, mirroring last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ episode and sustaining a spectacular two-year rally.” Instead, the yellow metal has done the opposite, they noted, losing 15% to date in March. “A stronger US dollar has certainly been a headwind, deterring non-US buyers, while a hawkish repricing of interest rates has increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” the analysts said. “Yet, gold withstood a similar surge in the greenback and rates throughout 2022, weakening this traditional thesis.” HSBC believes gold is actually behaving like a risk asset in 2026. “Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress,” they noted. "There remains a decent long-term investment case for gold, particularly amid ongoing global de-dollarisation,” the analysts said. “However, the recent volatility offers a stark reminder: robust portfolio diversification demands a broad-based approach." Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/we-anticipate-further-upside-gold-year-end-hsbcs-sels-and-ku

Published: 5 days ago One builds MAS-backed vaulting for central banks, the other opens a pipeline to Shanghai. Singapore and Hong Kong are pursuing different strategies to bolster their positions as precious metals hubs , with Singapore expanding clearing and vaulting services for international investors and Hong Kong building on its ties to Mainland China's bullion market. Singapore is viewed as a neutral jurisdiction with established storage facilities and a strong wealth management sector, Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Precious Metals Hong Kong, said in an emailed reply to questions. He said Hong Kong's advantage lies in its connection with Mainland China's bullion market through its integration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Singapore's strategy gathered pace in June when Deputy Prime Minister and Monetary Authority of Singapore Chairman Gan Kim Yong announced at the Asia-Pacific Precious Metals Conference that Singapore Exchange Ltd. would launch an over-the-counter clearing system for Loco Singapore gold by the end of 2026. The system will clear physical gold stored and settled in Singapore and will be backed by DBS Bank Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, ICBC Standard Bank Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd., and United Overseas Bank Ltd. Gan also said the Monetary Authority of Singapore would begin offering gold vaulting services to foreign central banks and sovereign entities from October 2026. Singapore will remove the 5% cap on physical investment precious metals under selected tax incentive schemes for eligible funds and single-family offices, whilst Singapore Exchange is studying a physically deliverable gold futures contract. Joshua Rotbart, founder of J. Rotbart & Co., said regulations are no longer the main factor separating Singapore and Hong Kong. "The regulations are almost the same," he told Singapore Business Review via Zoom. "It's more about the nature of the market and the perception of risk." He said investors typically choose Singapore for long-term gold storage and wealth preservation , whilst Hong Kong has developed into a trading centre serving Mainland China. Singapore's latest measures build on work launched in March, when the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Bullion Market Association formed the Gold Market Development Working Group to review clearing, settlement, storage, logistics, custody, and investment products. Hong Kong has also stepped up efforts this year, but with a stronger focus on the mainland. The Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) signed a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange in January to develop a gold central clearing system and deepen cooperation between the two markets. The government also plans to expand Hong Kong's gold storage capacity to more than 2,000 tonnes within three years. The state-owned Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Ltd. held its first board meeting in April. Financial Services and Treasury Secretary Christopher Hui said preparations for the clearing system were progressing, with trial operations scheduled to begin this year. The bureau also announced in June that the Shanghai Gold Exchange had opened its first International Board-certified offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong, letting international investors take delivery of eligible contracts outside Mainland China. Albert Cheng, CEO at the Singapore Bullion Market Association, said Project Lion 2 aims to strengthen Singapore's gold market through improvements to clearing, storage, custody, and investment products. "By strengthening clearing, custody, vaulting, and product development, we can complement existing centres and deepen institutional participation," he added. Source： https://sbr.com.sg/exclusive/singapore-hong-kong-take-rival-paths-capture-global-gold-trade