March 18, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $26/mt (price range: $21-31/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Since last night, SHFE prices had continued to decline, while China spot premiums rose, opening the window for spot imports. Suppliers actively sought bonded warrants or B/Ls arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/Ls arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrival in late March and early April were quoted at $35, while EQ B/Ls arriving in mid-to-late April were offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with both April and May QP available. Standard ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

China’s silver prices weakened this week, and the price spread between SGE TD prices and the SHFE April contract continued to narrow sharply. Imported silver ingots kept flowing into the market, but spot transactions turned noticeably sluggish in late March, with suppliers continuously lowering spot premiums to sell off inventory. As orders for PV silver powder and silver paste declined, silver nitrate enterprises generally said that after current order deliveries are completed, renewals of new orders will decrease, so raw material silver ingot procurement volume generally fell this week. As both silver prices and spot premiums showed signs of weakening, silver nitrate and other downstream enterprises mostly stayed cautious amid fears of further declines, negotiating for rigid-demand purchases and only buying the dip. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for Shanghai market standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been cut to below 100 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, non-registered-brand silver ingots were occasionally quoted at parity or even at slight discounts for sale, but suppliers of standard silver ingots still mostly held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. After spot trading turned sluggish, the spot silver ingot market may see suppliers shift inventory and ship to delivery warehouses, and SGE or SHFE inventory is expected to post a slight buildup going forward. Inventory side, silver ingot inventory in Shenzhen posted a slight buildup this week, while inventories in some Shanghai warehouses did not increase significantly. Import profits for silver ingots narrowed sharply this week, and some smelters gradually began to fulfill export permits in late March, reducing domestic supply. Despite softer downstream consumption, silver ingot social inventory did not show a continued buildup trend this week.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Weak Supply and Demand Dominated Magnesium Price Trends, with Structural Divergence Across Segments] This week, trends across various products in China’s magnesium industry chain diverged, while the overall market maintained a core tone of stability with rangebound fluctuations. The stalemate in market supply and demand became more pronounced, with insufficient momentum for a unilateral market move. The upstream dolomite market remained stable. Although a top-tier enterprise in the Wutai region suspended production, ample raw material inventory in place and timely capacity replenishment in major producing areas, coupled with the steady pace of just-in-time procurement by primary magnesium enterprises, kept prices stable without fluctuations. As the core product, magnesium ingot prices in China’s main producing areas consolidated at high levels, and mainstream transaction prices remained stable. Market transactions showed mediocre performance, producers had strong sentiment to hold back sales, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, quotations fluctuated rangebound. On the foreign trade side, FOB quotations loosened slightly. As ocean freight rates pulled back, inquiries from outside China recovered somewhat, and there were expectations for more long-term orders. Supported by raw materials and boosted by incoming foreign trade orders, the magnesium powder market saw firm quotations and held up well. Industry operating rates gradually recovered in March, and support from the demand side became increasingly evident. Magnesium alloy market prices overall remained stable. On the supply side, with top-tier enterprises resuming operations and newly added capacity gradually coming online and releasing volume, downstream buyers mainly focused on just-in-time restocking, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward. Looking across the entire industry chain, there have been no major changes in current market fundamentals, and in the short term, the market will still likely be dominated by steady fluctuations and localized marginal adjustments.

SMM News, March 19: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 19, copper inventories in SMM's major regions nationwide fell 8.85% WoW from last Thursday, while total inventories increased 176,700 mt YoY from the same period last year, with all regions posting destocking. By region, copper cathode inventories in Shanghai continued to decline, as arrivals of domestic material gradually decreased after the end of delivery, while warehouse withdrawals gradually exceeded warehouse inflows amid consumption support; in Jiangsu, inventories also continued to destock, as demand in northern China recovered, arrivals of domestic material decreased, and local consumption rebounded; in Guangdong, inventories also trended downward, supported by a marked recovery in downstream demand and slightly tighter supply. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported material continued to arrive at ports, but arrivals of domestic material decreased due to the end of delivery; on the demand side, the sharp pullback in copper prices clearly stimulated downstream procurement. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain tight next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to continue destocking.

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices generally fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. During the week, prices briefly surged on news of procurement by overseas traders and export controls in the DRC, but later pulled back into the fluctuation range as macro sentiment weakened and downstream procurement follow-through proved insufficient. In terms of supply, ex-factory prices at mainstream smelters remained stable, traders' spot-futures price spread quotations were steady, and there were no significant changes in the structure of cargoes circulating in the market. In terms of demand, affected by weak cost pass-through, downstream enterprises still showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials and only maintained a pace of just-in-time stockpiling, with no significant increase seen in actual transactions. Fundamentally, the DRC's export control policy further increased uncertainty over cobalt intermediate products exports, while the pattern of structural tightness in China's raw material supply remained unchanged, continuing to provide bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady, and the market remained in a pattern of "prices quoted but no trading." In terms of supply, the impact of the DRC's export control policy continued to unfold, market concerns over whether miners could ship smoothly intensified, suppliers' bullish expectations heated up, and they continued to withhold quotations, leaving extremely scarce spot cargoes available in the market. In terms of demand, although smelters still had willingness to procure raw materials, constrained by cobalt salt prices that struggled to catch up, and with downstream orders yet to become clear, enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, ongoing disruptions in the DRC's export process continued to cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals at port, and the structurally tight raw material situation in China may further intensify. Once downstream orders are gradually finalized and procurement demand restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to remain stable. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters held firm on quotations in the range of 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. During the week, the DRC's export control document strengthened traders' expectations for a rise in future cobalt salt prices, and low-priced shipments in the market decreased significantly. In terms of demand, most enterprises remained concerned about future orders, and with their own raw material inventory relatively sufficient, they prioritized inventory consumption and only maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, mainly at low prices. Overall, the market remained in the inventory digestion stage in the short term, with continued bargaining between sellers and buyers, and prices were mainly driven by rangebound adjustments. However, the DRC raw material supply issue has yet to be resolved, and cost support still exists. Once downstream inventories are depleted and procurement restarts, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain upward momentum.

[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Tangshan Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Fluctuate Within a Range] Domestic iron ore prices in the Tangshan area remained relatively stable, with the delivery-to-factory price, tax included, for 66-grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis at 970-975 yuan/mt. Steel mills' procurement pace at high prices slowed down, constraining upward market momentum, but local and nearby ROM resources were tight and costs were high, leaving overall iron ore concentrates resources still relatively tight. Recently, iron ore prices fluctuated relatively sharply, and the market was relatively

The current spot rhenium metal market in China is characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, two-way bargaining in supply and demand, and high-level price consolidation. Overall market performance is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, the pace of stockpiling across the industry chain, overseas supply chain risks, and China’s supply and demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Faster Producer Shipments In China’s upstream rhenium metal market, mainstream producers maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled at around 28,000. Only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price structure remained clearly tiered, with no wild swings. From the circulation side of the market, upstream producers recently showed stronger willingness to sell, and shipment frequency increased significantly. II. Midstream: Concentrated Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream smelters and rhenium processing enterprises are currently in scheduled production, with pre-holiday order deliveries relatively concentrated. Most producers are scheduled to complete deliveries in March and April. From the cost side and purchasing sentiment, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. The procurement side is more inclined toward rational bargaining and resists rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. This sentiment directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steadily Recovering Industrial Demand Downstream demand showed clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand moving in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment sentiment weakened, and retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment. Low-price sell-offs began to appear in the market one after another, and some holders chose to sell below market prices in order to recover funds quickly, which to some extent impacted short-term transaction prices in the spot market. On the other hand, industrial demand showed a healthy trend of steady return and continued growth. As the core support for rigid demand in the rhenium metal market, the recovery in industrial demand provided a solid fundamental floor for the market and offset part of the bearish impact brought by investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Considering the macro market environment and the supply and demand fundamentals of the industry chain, the core logic of the current rhenium market in China is clear: bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and in competition, jointly keeping prices in a high-level consolidation range. The specific influencing factors and market outlook are as follows: In the short term, affected by the international macro situation, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remained elevated and diverted market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector pulled back significantly. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. In addition, around the Chinese New Year, upstream and downstream producers across the industry chain had already completed phased restocking, leaving market inventory in a relatively ample state. Raw material prices therefore lacked the momentum for a sharp increase, and short-term upside room for prices is limited. In the long term, competition in the international critical minerals sector intensified, and critical minerals consultations between the US and Chile continued to advance. The trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains became increasingly evident, directly leading to reduced stability in import channels for ammonium perrhenate from outside China, while external supply risks continued to rise; the supply of ammonium perrhenate showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

The current domestic rhenium spot market in China is characterized by differentiation across the industrial chain, two-way supply-demand game, and high-level consolidation. Overall market conditions are jointly driven by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, inventory restocking cycles, overseas supply chain risks, and domestic fundamental supply and demand. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Accelerated Shipments Major domestic upstream rhenium producers maintain stable raw material quotations, with the mainstream price range around 28,000. Only a small number of suppliers offer prices as high as around 30,000, forming a clear tiered price structure without major fluctuations. Recently, upstream producers have shown stronger willingness to sell, with a notable increase in shipment frequency. II. Midstream: Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream refineries and rhenium processors are currently operating under scheduled production. Order deliveries are concentrated, with most manufacturers scheduled to fulfill orders in March and April.In terms of cost control and purchasing sentiment, midstream processors generally show low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. Buyers tend to negotiate rationally and resist chasing high prices, which directly caps the upward room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steady Recovery in Industrial Demand Downstream demand exhibits significant structural divergence between investment demand and industrial demand, which has become the key factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand has cooled, accompanied by panic selling among retail investors. Increasing low-price sell-offs have emerged in the market as holders offload at discounted prices to accelerate capital turnover, weighing on short-term spot transaction prices. On the other hand, industrial demand has steadily recovered and maintained growth. As the core rigid support for rhenium, the recovery of industrial demand provides a solid fundamental floor, offsetting part of the negative impact from investment-driven sell-offs. IV. Market Outlook Based on the macro environment and industrial supply-demand fundamentals, the domestic rhenium market is in a balanced game between bullish and bearish factors, keeping prices in high-level consolidation. Short-term Outlook Affected by the international macro environment, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remains high, diverting capital away from non-ferrous metals. The overall weakening investment sentiment in the non-ferrous sector has spilled over to the niche strategic metal rhenium, suppressing investment demand.In addition, most market participants completed phased restocking around the Spring Festival, leaving inventories at relatively sufficient levels. As a result, raw material prices lack upward momentum, with limited room for significant gains in the short term. Long-term Outlook Geopolitical competition over critical minerals is intensifying. Progress in critical minerals negotiations between the U.S. and Chile, along with rising exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains, has reduced the stability of overseas ammonium perrhenate import channels and raised external supply risks.The expected tightening in ammonium perrhenate supply will provide strong support to market prices.

Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts.