[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to persist, but the overall center may edge lower. During the day, some suppliers proactively cut prices to offload cargo, leading to a rapid decline in market quotes. Although some suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm after low-price deals, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 68,300 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW from Monday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 22,000 mt, up 2,400 mt WoW from Monday, marking the first slight inventory buildup in over three weeks. The low-inventory logic that previously supported higher premiums is weakening marginally. Coupled with downstream still dominated by just-in-time procurement, tomorrow's spot premiums are expected to still face downward pressure, but suppliers holding prices firm may limit the decline.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, the currently available spot copper remains tight, at a year-to-date low, and the inventory destocking trend remains unchanged. Moreover, the backwardation structure has widened. Intraday, suppliers continued to raise their quotes, showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, under the combined influence of tight available supply, suppliers holding prices firm, and downstream just-in-time procurement, SHFE copper spot prices against the 2608 contract next Monday are expected to maintain a premium, with the overall premium center continuing to rise.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the open interest for the SHFE copper 2607 contract is currently less than 2,000 lots, and the 2607 contract maintains a high backwardation against the 2608 contract. After the contract rollover, the market will officially price around the 2608 contract. Supply side, social inventory has been continuously declining recently. Arrivals of domestic and imported materials at some warehouses have been low, and the tightness of available spot supply is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. LME data shows that the ratio of cancelled warrants on the LME has been rising continuously; coupled with the opening of the import window, subsequent import supply growth is expected to see some improvement. According to SMM, some warrants have been cancelled from LME and shipped to the Chinese market, expected to arrive at the end of this month or early next month. Demand side, downstream buyers' acceptance of high premiums is limited, market transactions are light, and suppliers have been continuously lowering their offers to secure deals. Since SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, spot premiums have been rapidly recovering due to the backwardation structure. Overall, with the support of the backwardation structure and weakening downstream consumption, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM records Shanghai social inventory at 122,400 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW, and Jiangsu social inventory at 36,000 mt, down 200 mt WoW. Consecutive destocking pushed the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums higher. The tight supply-side pattern remains unchanged, lending strong support to spot premiums. After low-priced supply was quickly absorbed during the day, available spot cargoes in the market turned tight, and suppliers were resolute in holding prices firm. Overall, driven by inventory destocking, suppliers' firm pricing, and downstream demand resilience, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to stay at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center possibly edging up slightly.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the early-month procurement cycle is continuing, downstream demand is still being released, and both buying and selling sentiment have been rebounding, keeping market trading activity relatively brisk. On the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were rapidly absorbed, discounted cargoes became hard to find in the market, and suppliers developed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Buyers’ parity bids could not be executed. Due to scarce availability, premiums for high-quality copper held at the high level of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region recorded 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW from Monday; in the Jiangsu region, social inventory recorded 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW from Monday, with both regions showing a destocking trend. Overall, driven by the confluence of early-month demand release, suppliers holding prices firm, and inventory destocking, spot Shanghai copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, maintaining an overall strong trend.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to see spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract remain at current levels. Shanghai social inventory stood at 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from the previous Thursday; Jiangsu inventory was 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, indicating a mild inventory buildup. SMM attributes the buildup mainly to arrivals from some domestic smelters and inflows of imported cargo, adding pressure on the supply side. Spot market activity was sluggish throughout the day. Suppliers initially quoted premiums at parity to 30 yuan/mt but, with insufficient follow-through buying, subsequently cut offers several times. By the second session, standard-quality copper traded at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers liquidating cargo and further dragging the premium center lower. Overall demand was weak, as downstream users made only just-in-time procurement and showed limited willingness to chase higher prices. Given inventory pressure and a stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices are expected to hold at current levels.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, next Monday marks the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. According to SMM's #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. During the day, the center of copper prices moved up, and downstream procurement sentiment pulled back slightly, indicating that high prices somewhat curbed demand. Approaching delivery, suppliers showed a relatively strong willingness to deliver their open interest, keeping available cargo tight. In addition, spot inventory in the Guangdong region remained at a low level, with offers at a premium of around 200 yuan/mt, which may lend some support to premiums in the Shanghai region. Overall, premiums for Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 copper contract next Monday are expected to remain at a premium level.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Nearing delivery, the inter-month contango spread remains in the 70-10 yuan/mt range. Suppliers are optimistic about near-term premiums, with strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling. After standard-quality copper cargoes at a discount of 20 yuan/mt were quickly traded in early business, low-priced cargoes became hard to find in the market. From the demand side, downstream buyers’ acceptance of current premium offers is limited, with overall demand largely need-based and limited willingness to chase higher prices. The discount for non-registered copper remains at 200-180 yuan/mt, indicating that overall consumption support is not strong. On balance, amid the tug-of-war between delivery-logic-backed firm offers and limited downstream acceptance, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain the current pattern tomorrow, with the center of premiums possibly shifting slightly higher.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, approaching delivery, the C-month price spread holds between 70 yuan/mt and -20 yuan/mt, with suppliers, bullish on near-term premiums, holding back from selling. In addition, SMM understands that some enterprises have exported spot cargoes to bonded warehouses, tightening available supply. Moreover, the import window remains closed, limiting the inflow of ex-China cargoes. Overall, supported by consumption demand and delivery-related dynamics, the discount of Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 contract is expected to continue narrowing tomorrow, with some brands likely to remain at parity or a slight premium.