The escalation of conflicts between Israel and Iran has strengthened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. Silver, as a precious metal with both safe-haven and industrial attributes, has become an alternative choice for capital to seek refuge amid the backdrop of gold's trend being suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index on June 17. At the end of May, the gold-silver ratio once broke through the historical extreme of 1:100, far exceeding the previous long-term average of 60-80, indicating that silver was severely undervalued. The demand for silver's valuation repair has supported its price. The long-term trend of the global silver supply-demand gap provides underlying support for silver prices. As the most-traded SHFE silver contract technically broke through the round-number threshold of 9,000 yuan/kg, it attracted more market capital inflows, pushing silver prices to repeatedly hit new highs. As of around 15:19 on June 18, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose by 2.35%, closing at 9,045 yuan/kg, and refreshing its historical high since listing to 9,075 yuan/kg...

[SMM Flash News: 8834! SHFE Silver Hits New High Since Listing! Precious Metals Sector Rises Over 3%, Hunan Silver Hits Daily Limit] Recently, the US economic data for May has been underperforming, with initial jobless claims rising to the highest level in seven months, a significant MoM decline in the US ADP employment data, and the ISM non-manufacturing index falling below the 50 mark, exceeding expectations. Concerns over a slowdown in US economic growth have intensified, leading to heightened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Renewed concerns over geopolitical conflicts have also triggered a flight to safety for funds. On the fundamentals side, low silver inventory levels have provided inventory-related support for silver prices. A series of factors, including the current historically high gold-silver ratio, the need for the ratio to correct, and the influx of bullish funds into the market, have all supported the rise in silver prices. As of around 11:02 on June 6, COMEX gold rose 0.38% to $3,387.8 per ounce; COMEX silver rose 1.236% to $36.245 per ounce, with COMEX silver hitting a new historical high of $36.27 per ounce since September 2011 on June 5; the main SHFE gold contract fell 0.22% to 782.62 yuan/g; the main SHFE silver contract rose 3.93% to 8,803 yuan/kg, hitting a new historical high since listing of 8,834 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 3.89% to 8,776 yuan/kg.

Zhaoyuan in Shandong Province, China's county with the highest "gold content," saw its total output value of the gold industry exceed 100 billion yuan last year, ranking first among all county-level cities nationwide. The region has established an entire gold industry chain, spanning from upstream exploration and mining, midstream smelting and processing, to downstream design and retailing. Amidst the current scenario where gold prices have repeatedly hit new historical highs, the city exudes an air of opulence. Recently, a reporter from Cailian Press visited this small city and engaged in discussions with numerous individuals involved in the local gold industry chain to understand their perspectives on gold price trends, the situation of upstream reserve and production increases, the recent developments in midstream smelting and processing, as well as the new trends emerging in the "time-honored" downstream gold jewelry sector. Upstream: Reserve and Production Increases in Progress The Jiaodong region, where Zhaoyuan is located, is China's largest gold ore concentration area, with proven gold resources exceeding 5,800 mt, accounting for 35% of the country's total reserves. Notable ore-controlling faults in the region include the Sanshandao Fault, Jiaojia Fault, Zhaoping Fault, and Jinniushan Fault. Among them, Zhaoyuan's gold resources are mainly distributed within the fault structures of the Zhaoping Fault Zone, with the Linglong ore field in the north being a world-class ore field with reserves exceeding 1,000 mt. Currently, Zhaoyuan boasts two gold mines under active exploitation that rank among China's top ten gold mines. One of them, the Linglong Gold Mine, belongs to Shandong Gold Group, while the other, the Xiadian Gold Mine, belongs to Zhaojin Group. In addition, enterprises such as China National Gold Group Corporation and Jindu State Investment also possess abundant resources in the local area. With the soaring international gold prices—which surged by 26.8% throughout last year and even exceeded $3,500 per ounce at one point this year—the topic of gold prices has begun to attract increasing discussions. Industry insiders in Zhaoyuan told Cailian Press, "The pricing mechanism of gold is based on credit, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and underpinned by mining costs. From a medium and long-term perspective, the upward trend is evident." The sustained increase in gold prices has profound implications for gold mining enterprises. On one hand, the production cost per gram of gold for major domestic publicly listed gold firms mostly fell within the 200-300 yuan range last year, and the rise in gold prices directly boosted their profits. On the other hand, the increase in gold prices has made it economically viable to mine ore deposits with lower grades or higher costs, leading to significant reserve and production increases for gold mining enterprises. According to the 2025 Zhaoyuan Government Work Report, key local enterprises in Zhaoyuan "achieved remarkable results in reserve and production increases last year," implementing a total of 17 in-region exploration projects and 2 out-of-region M&A projects. The annual new gold reserves reached 178.2 mt, and self-produced gold output amounted to 28.1 mt, representing increases of 10.5% and 16.1%, respectively. The local target for 2025 is to strive for gold production to exceed 31.25 mt and to increase proven reserves by 33.3 mt. Midstream: Gold Bars in Undersupply Zhaoyuan is not only rich in gold ore resources but also serves as the country's largest base for gold intensive and deep processing. Zhaojin Refining, a subsidiary of Zhaojin Group, is the leading enterprise in the local deep-processing industry chain. It holds certifications from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and London Bullion Market Association as a "qualified refiner capable of producing standard gold and silver ingots." With an annual refining capacity of 200 mt of gold and 1,000 mt of silver, it ranks first in the industry in terms of gold refining production. Local industry insiders told Cailian Press that gold refining has become fully marketized, with thin profit margins. Core competitiveness depends on production and management efficiency. However, as gold prices doubled over the past two years, processing fees also rose significantly, leading to a substantial improvement in profitability and keeping the entire industry at a high prosperity level this year. Additionally, Zhaojin Refining collaborates extensively with major domestic banks in the field of gold deep-processing, offering comprehensive services including design, processing, distribution, repurchase, customization, and warehousing logistics for precious metal products. Since last year, there has been an "explosive" surge in public demand for investment gold bars, with orders pouring in continuously. Zhaojin Refining's gold bar production workshop once had its production schedule booked a month in advance, forcing workers to work overtime. Due to its heavy involvement in physical gold trading, upstream and midstream gold mining companies need to use "futures + options" combinations for risk hedging and price protection to mitigate market risks caused by gold price fluctuations. Seizing this opportunity, Zhaojin Group entered the futures market, and its subsidiary Shandong Zhaojin Investment Co., Ltd. became one of the largest gold traders on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, consistently ranking among the top three comprehensive members. This serves as a model for the integration of industry and finance in the gold sector. Downstream: Repositioning of Gold Jewelry The rapid rise in gold prices has not been universally welcomed in the gold industry chain, with some benefiting while others suffer—particularly downstream gold jewelry retailers. This is because when gold prices rise from low levels, the increase stimulates jewelry consumption. However, once prices reach a psychological high, further increases tend to suppress jewelry demand. Consequently, since H2 last year, typical gold jewelry stocks such as Lao Feng Xiang, Caibai Co., Ltd., and China Gold have generally faced declining performance and stock prices, starkly contrasting with the continuous climb in gold prices. However, against the backdrop of persistently high gold prices, will gold jewelry consumption inevitably continue to shrink? In Zhaoyuan, industry insiders hold differing views. "If you look at the three newly emerging jewelry brands—Laopu, Linchao, and Junpei—they remain completely unaffected by the surge in gold prices." The professional attributes this to the core strategy of brands like Laopu, which emphasize ancient-style gold jewelry with a focus on design, craftsmanship, and artistic value. These brands align with the current trend of Chinese aesthetic revival and psychologically "capture" consumers, making them view their purchases as luxury or collectible items, thereby desensitizing them to the relationship between product pricing and real-time gold prices. "This brings us a profound insight: the competition in the gold jewelry industry is increasingly focused on product strength and design. The new generation of consumers, including young people, place greater emphasis on the self-pleasing and collectible attributes of gold jewelry. Only by continuously exerting efforts in this dimension can we break through in an environment of high gold prices." Currently, Zhaojin Group is focusing on building its brand "Zhaojin Silver House" (formerly known as Zhaoyuan Silver Workshop, established in 1908). It has launched product series such as "Contemporary Treasure" and "Dunhuang Splendid Ornaments," attempting to secure a place in the fiercely competitive gold retail market through innovative designs that integrate traditional culture. In Zhaoyuan, beyond the traditional business models of gold mining, smelting, and retail, efforts are being made to explore more economic growth points centered around gold themes. Today, Zhaoyuan is promoting the deep integration of "gold + culture + tourism" offline, attempting to leverage the Gold Town to delve into the millennium-old gold culture and experience the intangible cultural heritage of the Song Dynasty. It is constructing a new pattern of integrated development of industry, culture, and tourism that encompasses "mining gold, making gold, playing with gold, buying gold, and exchanging gold," further cultivating a characteristic cultural tourism IP of "China's Gold Capital." Locals in Zhaoyuan say that the charm of gold lies in its heritage from antiquity, yet it always manages to remain fresh and relevant.

Today, gold stocks continued their downward trend. As of press time, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), and Shandong Gold (01787.HK) fell by 6.41%, 4.65%, 3.70%, and 1.83%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks In terms of news, on May 28 local time, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the "Emancipation Day" tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, constituted an ultra vires act and issued a permanent injunction. The Court of International Trade, located in Manhattan, New York, stated that the US Constitution grants the US Congress exclusive authority to regulate trade with other countries, and that the emergency powers claimed by the President to protect the US economy do not override these authorities. The lawsuit was filed by the Center for Justice and Democracy, a US non-profit, non-partisan litigation organization, on behalf of five small US businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first major legal challenge to Trump's tariff policy. This ruling significantly alleviated market concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions, causing US stock futures to rise in response, while gold, as a safe-haven asset, faced selling pressure. As of press time, COMEX gold fell by 1% to $3,289.1. Note: Performance of COMEX gold How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? CITIC Futures pointed out that although recurring trade frictions may support gold's short-term fluctuation upward, factors such as the delay in the US Fed's first rate cut and the absence of a US debt credit risk outbreak make it difficult for gold prices to achieve a breakthrough rally. Jinrui Futures believes that after the postponement of Trump's tariff implementation, the market has already digested the worst of the negative news, and technical indicators suggest that gold prices need to undergo a period of consolidation with reduced volatility. Goldman Sachs, however, goes against the trend by recommending a long-term increase in gold allocation, citing rising institutional credibility risks in the US and sustained central bank gold-buying demand.

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in Q1, domestic gold production from raw materials reached 87.243 mt, up 1.284 mt YoY, representing a 1.49% YoY increase. This included 61.772 mt of gold produced from gold mines and 25.471 mt of gold produced as a by-product of non-ferrous metals. Additionally, in Q1, gold production from imported raw materials was 53.587 mt, up 0.68% YoY. Including this gold produced from imported raw materials, China's total gold production reached 140.83 mt, up 1.18% YoY. In Q1, gold enterprises seized the opportunities brought about by rising gold prices, further reducing the cut-off grade to maximize the utilization of gold mine resources, leading to steady growth in gold production. Key gold mine projects, such as Haiyu, Shaling, and Xiling, advanced rapidly. Major gold enterprises actively adjusted their gold production layouts and promoted the construction of intelligent and green mines. China's large gold groups actively pursued an "outbound" strategy, accelerating the pace of gold M&A with remarkable results. On March 10, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the third domestic gold enterprise to be listed on both the "A+H" dual platforms, following Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold. In Q1, China's large gold groups produced 18.485 mt of gold from overseas mines, up 13.14% YoY. In Q1, China's gold consumption reached 290.492 mt, down 5.96% YoY. This included 134.531 mt of gold jewelry, down 26.85% YoY; 138.018 mt of gold bars and coins, up 29.81% YoY; and 17.943 mt of gold for industrial and other uses, down 3.84% YoY. Due to the suppression of high gold prices, consumer demand for gold jewelry remained weak, with traditional gold, high-purity gold, and small-weight gold jewelry being in higher demand. Products combining gold with other materials were also popular among young consumers. The complex and volatile geopolitical situation and economic uncertainties further highlighted gold's function as a safe-haven asset and a store of value, leading to a rapid and substantial increase in private investment demand for gold bars and coins. Industrial gold use showed a slight decline due to the impact of high gold prices. In Q1, China's gold market trading volume and turnover showed significant growth trends. The total two-way trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 16,000 mt (8,000 mt one-way), up 4.57% YoY, with a two-way turnover of 10.7 trillion yuan (5.35 trillion yuan one-way), up 42.85% YoY. The total two-way trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,400 mt (27,700 mt one-way), up 91.17% YoY, with a two-way turnover of 30.52 trillion yuan (15.26 trillion yuan one-way), up 143.69% YoY.In Q1, the open interest of domestic gold ETFs increased by 23.47 mt, up 5.49 mt from Q1 2024, representing a 327.73% YoY increase. By the month-end of March, the holdings of domestic gold ETFs reached 138.21 mt. On February 7, the National Administration of Financial Regulation issued the Notice on Conducting Pilot Programs for Insurance Funds to Invest in Gold Business, clarifying that insurance companies could conduct pilot programs for investing in gold business for the purpose of medium and long-term asset allocation. On March 25, the Beijing Branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in collaboration with China Life Insurance Company Limited, completed the nation's first insurance fund gold investment inquiry transaction under the new policy framework of the National Administration of Financial Regulation for conducting pilot programs for insurance funds to invest in gold business. This marked the first batch of gold transactions involving insurance funds entering the market. The investment channels for insurance funds were further broadened, injecting new vitality into the development of the gold market to a certain extent. By the month-end of March, the London spot gold fixing price was US$3,115.1 per ounce, up 17.79% from US$2,644.60 per ounce at the beginning of the year. The average price in Q1 was US$2,859.62 per ounce, up 38.16% from US$2,069.80 per ounce in the same period of 2024. The closing price of Au9999 gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 730.8 yuan per gram by the month-end of March, up 19.02% from the opening price of 614 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year. The weighted average price in Q1 was 670.67 yuan per gram, up 37.68% from 487.11 yuan per gram in Q1 2024. In Q1, China increased its gold holdings by 12.75 mt. As of the month-end of March, China's gold reserves stood at 2,292.33 mt.

In 2024, the performance of publicly listed firms in China's gold industry chain was characterized by robust growth in the upstream sector and a decline in the downstream sector. Benefiting from the sustained and significant increase in gold prices, the performance of gold mine-related publicly listed firms in the upstream sector of the gold industry chain surged in 2024. However, as gold prices continued to rise, consumer demand for gold jewelry was impacted, leading to a general decline in the performance of publicly listed firms in the downstream gold jewelry sector. Futures Daily reporters reviewed the annual reports of nine gold mine-related publicly listed firms and found that the performance of these firms surged across the board in 2024. Among them, Shandong Gold, the industry leader, achieved operating revenue of 82.518 billion yuan in 2024, up 39.21% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 2.952 billion yuan, up 26.80% YoY. Chifeng Gold recorded the largest increase in net profit in 2024, up 119.46% YoY, and achieved operating revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, up 24.99% YoY. Both Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology turned losses into profits in 2024. The significant growth in the performance of gold mine-related publicly listed firms in 2024 was attributed to the sharp increase in gold prices on the one hand, and the increase in the firms' gold production and sales on the other hand. Shandong Humon Smelting stated in its annual report that in 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 75.801 billion yuan, up 15.59% from the same period last year, due to the increase in sales revenue from its main product, gold. Shandong Gold stated in its annual report that the main reason for the increase in the company's operating revenue in 2024 was the increase in the sales volume and selling price of both self-produced and externally purchased gold in the current period. Reporters found through reviewing annual reports that the gold production of many gold mine-related publicly listed firms increased in 2024. For example, Shandong Gold produced 46.17 mt of gold from its mines in 2024, up 4.39 mt or 10.51% YoY. Shandong Gold International achieved gold production of 8.04 mt in 2024, up 14.69% YoY. Chifeng Gold achieved gold production of 15.16 mt in 2024, up 5.60% YoY. While upstream enterprises in the gold industry chain were quietly reaping profits, publicly listed firms in the downstream gold jewelry sector, whose main business involves gold jewelry sales, were struggling, with a significant decline in performance. Lao Feng Xiang, a leading enterprise in the gold jewelry sector, disclosed its 2024 annual report recently, showing that the company achieved operating revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, down 20.50% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% YoY. Lao Feng Xiang stated in its annual report that in 2024, the world economy lacked growth momentum, domestic effective demand was insufficient, and consumer spending was sluggish. Coupled with the sustained increase in gold prices, this led to weak consumption in the gold jewelry sector. Another leading publicly listed firm in the gold jewelry sector, China National Gold Group Corporation, also experienced a decline in net profit in 2024.Data shows that China National Gold Group Corporation achieved operating revenue of 60.464 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.27% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms was 818 million yuan, down 15.93% YoY. In its 2024 annual report, Chow Tai Seng, a publicly listed firm in the gold and jewelry sector, stated that during the reporting period, the uncertainty of the external economic environment increased significantly, and gold prices rose rapidly, further dampening consumers' enthusiasm for purchases and putting considerable pressure on the jewelry consumption market. In 2024, the company achieved cumulative operating revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, down 14.73% YoY. Among this, revenue from gold product sales was 7.717 billion yuan, down 24.34% YoY. In addition to the aforementioned companies, Mingr Jewelry, Darry Ring, and other companies in the gold and jewelry industry also reported a decline in net profit YoY in 2024. As gold prices continue to climb, significant changes have occurred in the gold industry. On the upstream smelting side, major gold mine publicly listed firms have all reported plans to increase production or expand capacity. However, in the downstream consumption sector, demand for gold jewelry has been suppressed. In Q1 2025, gold jewelry consumption decreased by 26.85% YoY, with some consumer demand shifting towards investment demand. This year, the total open interest in gold ETFs has increased significantly. "Currently, amidst the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the global political and economic landscape, gold demand is expected to continue to maintain a robust trend," Shandong Gold Group pointed out in its 2024 annual report. Firstly, from an economic performance perspective, the new US administration's tariff hikes on foreign countries will trigger a new round of trade frictions, causing harm to the global economy. Meanwhile, the rising debt levels in the US may undermine the credit of the US dollar. Secondly, from a monetary policy perspective, tariff hikes on foreign countries may have a certain impact on the US economy while driving inflation to rebound. Therefore, it is expected that the US Fed will still cut interest rates, but the pace may slow down. Finally, from a geopolitical risk perspective, the "America First" policies planned by the US government will exacerbate tensions between major powers, and the global geopolitical situation may become more complex. It is expected that gold's role as a store of value and its hedging value in global asset allocation will further increase, and the gold industry will face better development opportunities. In its 2024 annual report, Western Gold pointed out that the structure of the future gold market will change. On the one hand, consumers' increasing preferences and requirements for the style, quality, and price of gold jewelry may subject the gold jewelry market to greater competitive pressure. This will prompt gold jewelry enterprises to increase product innovation and market expansion efforts to adapt to changes in market demand. On the other hand, the gold investment market will become more diversified and specialized. Sichuan Gold stated in its annual report that due to the interplay between international geopolitical turmoil and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, gold's status as a safe-haven asset has gradually become prominent, and it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate upward. The company will continue to monitor domestic and overseas macroeconomic conditions and political environments, enhance its comprehensive research and judgment capabilities on gold price trends, and improve the efficiency of spot price settlement. Through measures such as in-depth promotion of refined management and comprehensive budget management, the company aims to reduce unit production costs. Wu Zijie, a precious metals researcher at Jinrui Futures, holds a bullish view on medium and long-term gold prices. He believes that the core driving force behind the rise in gold prices is the growth in demand for physical gold, represented by continuous central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows. The underlying factors are the trend of de-dollarization, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, US debt issues, and geopolitical conflict risks. Although gold prices are currently at historical highs, investors can still consider gradually building positions in batches during pullbacks, adhering to the principle of "buying small amounts during minor declines and larger amounts during major declines," to avoid rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. For enterprises in related industries, they should conduct systematic hedging through financial instruments such as futures and options, establish a tiered risk management mechanism, control risk exposures in the process of raw material procurement and product sales, stabilize corporate operating profits, and avoid being impacted by sharp price fluctuations. Gu Jianan, Assistant General Manager of Haitong Futures Research Institute, believes that gold is still in a long-term upward trend, and its current price has not yet peaked. In the short term, considering Trump's signals for trade negotiations, global market risk appetite is expected to continue to rebound, and the upward trend in gold prices will temporarily come to an end. From a long-term perspective, Trump's tariff policies will further promote "de-globalization," and the strengthening of trade barriers will drive down the demand for US dollar settlements. As a non-sovereign credit anchor, gold's monetary attributes will drive its price to continue rising. "For investors, it is recommended to firmly adhere to the strategy of long-term gold holding and reduce speculative and leveraged operations. If there is a need to increase positions, it is advisable to wait for entry opportunities after pullbacks and avoid chasing highs. Related enterprises can utilize financial derivatives such as futures and options for hedging to lock in costs or profits. At the same time, optimize inventory management and adjust inventory levels based on market forecasts," said Gu Jianan. It is worth mentioning that many listed gold companies disclosed their use of financial derivatives for hedging in their 2024 annual reports. Shandong Gold stated in its 2024 annual report that during the reporting period, the company and its subsidiaries primarily conducted hedging businesses related to their main operations to ensure stable operating performance.The financial derivative contracts used by the company and its subsidiaries for hedging purposes are linked to products and foreign exchange related to the company's production and operation, thereby reducing the risk of price fluctuations, achieving the expected risk management objectives, and further enhancing the company's production and operation capabilities as well as its risk resistance. In its 2024 annual report, Western Gold stated that to ensure stable operating performance, the company primarily engages in hedging activities related to its main business. The gains and losses on the derivatives side and the spot side can be hedged against each other, reducing the risk of price fluctuations and further enhancing the company's production and operation capabilities as well as its risk resistance. During the reporting period, the combined profits from derivative transactions and changes in spot value amounted to 34.1965 million yuan.

After a period of sluggish performance, gold mining stocks have collectively strengthened today. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK) has risen by 11.43%, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) by 7.27%, Shandong Gold (01787.HK) by 6.15%, and China Gold International Resources (02099.HK) by 4.39%. Note: Performance of gold mining stocks Behind this unusual movement is the resurgence of international gold prices after a brief pullback. As of press time, COMEX gold futures prices have surpassed $3,370 per ounce. Gold prices' "V-shaped" reversal: Resonance of three catalysts Firstly, US President Trump announced on May 5 that a 100% tariff would be imposed on imported films produced overseas. Although this policy appears to target the film and television industry, it has triggered multiple chain reactions: On the one hand, the market fears that escalating trade frictions will impact the global supply chain, stimulating a rush of safe-haven funds into gold. On the other hand, the soaring costs of imported films may push up US inflation expectations, enhancing gold's inflation-hedging properties. Previously, Trump had already imposed tariff hikes on semiconductors, rare earths, and other sectors. Secondly, Israel declared on May 4 that it would retaliate against the Houthi forces in Yemen and Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East once again. Finally, the US dollar index has continued to pull back recently, further boosting the attractiveness of gold prices. Gold mining stocks performed brilliantly in Q1 In addition to the three market factors boosting gold prices, miners with significant ties to gold have also benefited. Benefiting from the rise in gold prices, the performance of leading miners has continued to soar. Chifeng Gold's net profit in Q1 2025 increased by 141% YoY, while Shandong Gold's net profit growth reached 46.6%. Some institutions predict that if gold prices remain above $3,300, the annual net profits of major miners are expected to achieve 30%-50% growth. How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the bank reaffirms the logic of a "super cycle" for gold, raising its target price to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and to $4,000 by mid-2026. They also emphasized that if the credibility of the US Fed's policies is questioned, gold prices could surge to $4,500. Galaxy Securities believes that current gold prices need to digest the rapid gains from the previous period and may experience sideways movement in the range of $3,150-$3,550 in the short term. A breakthrough requires two signals: one is the initiation of an interest rate cut cycle by the US Fed, and the other is an explosion in physical demand. The institution pointed out that the scale of domestic gold ETFs has exceeded 130 billion yuan, surging by 160% YoY, and the consumption peak season in H2 may become a new catalyst.

China National Gold Group Corporation (600489.SH) reported a YoY increase of over 10% in net profit for 2024, yet still underperformed the growth in gold prices. The company has revised down its production targets for major non-ferrous metal products in 2025. The company announced this evening that in 2024, it achieved operating revenue of RMB 65.556 billion, up 7.01% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was RMB 3.386 billion, up 13.71% YoY; and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was approximately RMB 3.532 billion, up 18.25% YoY. In Q1 of this year, the company generated operating revenue of RMB 14.859 billion, up 12.88% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.038 billion, up 32.65% YoY. The rise in gold prices was the primary factor driving the company's performance growth in 2024. The company stated that the average international gold price in 2024 was US$2,386 per ounce, up 23% YoY. It should be noted that, compared to major listed gold mining enterprises such as Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SH), Shandong Gold International Mining Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), Hunan Chenzhou Mining Group Co., Ltd. (002155.SZ), and Chifeng Gold Corporation (600988.SH), which all reported YoY increases in net profit of over 50% for 2024, China National Gold Group Corporation significantly underperformed its peers in the industry. Further analysis reveals that China National Gold Group Corporation's gold business primarily consists of two major segments: smelting and mining. Among these, the smelting business typically accounts for approximately 90% of operating revenue (before inter-segment eliminations), with a gross profit margin that has remained around 2%-4% in recent years, significantly lower than the 40%-50% gross profit margin of the mining business in recent years. In terms of production, in 2024, the company's production of mine-produced gold, smelted gold, mine copper, and copper cathode was 18.35 mt, 37.95 mt, 82,000 mt, and 396,900 mt, respectively, with YoY changes of -2.86%, -7.14%, 2.60%, and -3.42%, respectively. The company also disclosed its 2025 business plan this evening. In terms of production of major products, it plans to produce 18.17 mt of mine-produced gold, 35.30 mt of smelted gold, 79,400 mt of mine copper, and 396,200 mt of copper cathode, with YoY changes of approximately -0.98%, -6.98%, -3.17%, and -0.18%, respectively. In terms of resource exploration, it plans to add 33.5 mt of gold metal resources and 120,000 mt of copper metal resources. Regarding gold prices in 2025, the company stated that, on one hand, although inflation has slowed somewhat, it remains above target levels; on the other hand, the US dollar is expected to stabilize or weaken slightly. Additionally, although global economic growth remains on an upward trajectory, it is still below trend levels, and safe-haven demand may support gold to some extent. However, the weakness in gold jewelry demand may narrow somewhat, while the growth momentum of investment demand may slow compared to 2024, and gold prices may continue to fluctuate at highs.

On April 16, the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), was grandly held at Halls F3-G3 of the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu, from April 16-18.

Driven by the continuous rise in spot gold prices, Hong Kong-listed gold stocks maintained their strong performance. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Zhaojin Gold (01818.HK) rose by 15.63%, 8.49%, 7.18%, and 6.95%, respectively. Note: The performance of gold stocks It is worth noting that gold stocks strengthened for the third consecutive trading day, with leading gains from Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold, which surged over 30% this week. On the news front, the US March unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a six-month low and below the market expectation of 2.6%. This data reinforced market expectations for the US Fed to initiate an interest rate cut in June, with the CME "Fed Watch" showing the market's pricing probability for a June rate cut rising to 98%. Meanwhile, the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have caused global supply chain disruptions, leading to a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets, pushing COMEX gold futures prices above the $3,200/oz mark, with a cumulative increase of over 22% this year. Note: The trend of COMEX gold futures prices Institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold prices Deutsche Bank's latest report raised its gold price forecasts for this year and next to $3,139/oz and $3,700/oz, respectively, and expects prices to reach $3,350/oz in Q4. The bank emphasized that despite increased short-term market volatility, the bullish logic for gold remains solid, especially as central banks' gold purchasing demand surged from 10% in 2022 to 24%, far exceeding their demand for net bond issuance (7%-10%). BOC Securities analysis pointed out that the growth potential of global central bank gold reserves remains considerable, coupled with downward pressure on real interest rates, the value of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue to rise. Carsten Menke, Head of Commodity Research at Julius Baer, noted that the "supply chain earthquake" triggered by tariff policies could severely impact US economic growth, and the value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven tool is being repriced.