Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,949/mt. During the Asian session, prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices shifted to fluctuate downward. Although there were slight rebounds during the period, the momentum was limited. Prices continued to weaken during the evening session, dipping to a low of $1,940/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,947.5/mt, up $8.5/mt, a gain of 0.44%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. After a brief pullback at the start, prices moved higher in a volatile manner, touching a high of 16,825 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,785-16,810 yuan/mt range. During the midnight session, lead prices fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,745 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at 16,765 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.21%. On the macro front: 1. Iranian media: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. 2. Iranian media: If Israeli attacks on Lebanon do not stop, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire. 3. "US Fed mouthpiece": The ceasefire agreement made it harder for the US Fed to decide. 4. US Fed meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. 5. US media: Trump considered partially withdrawing US troops from NATO allies. 6. World Gold Council: Gold ETFs saw record capital outflows in March. 7. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council established the Overseas State-owned Assets Bureau. 8. Iran sought security guarantees from China? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. Spot fundamentals: Boosted by positive macro news, SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers lowered discounts for shipments, while others had limited cargoes and temporarily offered no quotes. Quotes for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -30 to +50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelter shipments also diverged, with some holding prices firm for shipments and others expanding discounts for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, making it difficult to close deals at high prices in the spot market, with some premium cargoes attracting no interest. Inventory side, as of April 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,400 mt to 279,025 mt. As of April 7, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw a slight inventory buildup. Secondary lead enterprises saw slower-than-expected production resumptions due to profit constraints. Some smelters cut production slightly this week due to insufficient raw material inventory. Meanwhile, some smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late March were still in the capacity ramp-up stage. The supply side presented a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. Demand side, lead prices fluctuated at highs, suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, with high-priced spot cargoes seeing sluggish transactions, and some premium varieties attracting little interest. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend in the short term.

[Secondary Lead Market Dynamics] Lead prices rose significantly. Downstream battery producers showed poor acceptance of high-priced supplies, and secondary refined lead offered at a premium of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price delivered to plant was difficult to sell. Most downstream enterprises indicated that they were not short of supplies at present, with low purchase willingness.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,930.5/mt. During the Asian session, prices briefly fluctuated upward before pulling back under pressure, dipping to around $1,924.5/mt, then rebounded slightly before turning to fluctuate downward again; during the European session, lead prices fluctuated higher, touching an intraday high of $1,948.5/mt before dropping sharply, and in the late session lead prices gradually recovered to repair the losses, ultimately closing at $1,939/mt, up $4.5/mt, a gain of 0.23%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, surged quickly at the start of the session, then pulled back under pressure, moved sideways briefly in the 16,730-16,760 yuan/mt range before trending higher, touching a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, dipped slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,755 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 25 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.15%. On the macro front: 1. Trump agreed to suspend bombing and strikes on Iran for two weeks. 2. Trump: Iran's 10-point proposal is a viable plan that can be used for negotiations. 3. Iranian media: The situation on Kharg Island has been brought under control. 4. Survey: OPEC oil production in March saw the largest decline in decades. 5. PBOC increased gold holdings for the 17th consecutive month. 6. The National Services Industry Conference is about to convene, with measures to expand and improve the services sector set to be rolled out. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead pulled back relatively after surging higher. Returning from the holiday, suppliers were mostly active in shipments, with some lowering quoted premiums, especially for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites. Mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -25~+25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. However, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample, and coupled with elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with minimal restocking after the holiday. Inventory side, as of April 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 225 mt to 281,425 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw slight inventory buildup due to the Qingming Festival holiday; secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday with capacity continuing to release, and combined with imported lead inflows, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample. Demand side, suppressed by elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with subdued willingness to restock after the holiday. Resistance above SHFE lead is prominent, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

In Q1 2026, China's secondary lead market navigated through turbulence amid holiday effects and industry difficulties. Following a sharp production decline of over 140,000 mt in February, the market saw a post-holiday recovery rebound in March, but the recovery fell short of expectations, with the industry mired in the dual constraints of "profit pressure and tight raw material supply." Looking ahead to April, although large smelters are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner……

Futures: The LME market was closed from April 3 to April 6 for the Good Friday and Easter holidays; due to the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on the evening of Friday, April 3; normal trading resumed from Tuesday, April 7. On the Macro Front: 1. Trump said Iran's bridge power plants could be destroyed within four hours. 2. Trump on strait transit fees: the US might as well collect them. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: the US rescue operation for pilots may have been aimed at stealing enriched uranium. 4. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest level since early March. 5. China made a major breakthrough in sodium-ion battery technology. 6. Media: Foxconn was trial-producing Apple's foldable-screen phones. Spot Fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead held up well. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, and with the holiday approaching, some suppliers actively made shipments. Premiums for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site were lowered, with quotations in major producing areas mostly around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, while a small number of regions quoted premiums of 50 yuan/mt. For secondary lead, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. However, imported lead continued to flow into China, giving downstream enterprises more choices. Apart from slight stockpiling due to the holiday, other enterprises only purchased as needed. Inventory: As of April 2, LME lead inventory fell by 50 mt to 281,650 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to pull back. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply side, although social inventory of lead ingot in five regions in China continued to decline, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead smelters proceeded in parallel in April. In addition, secondary lead capacity in northern China increased, finished product inventories at plants increased slightly, and imported lead continued to pour in, leaving overall spot supply ample. Demand side, lead-acid batteries entered the traditional off-season, downstream purchase willingness remained cautious, and spot transactions were weak. With phased consumption absent and the risk of post-holiday social inventory buildup elevated, resistance in SHFE lead became more evident. Lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited upside room.

SMM, April 3: This week, the mainstream tax-included ex-factory prices of secondary lead were at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with local premiums at 75-100 yuan/mt; lead prices rose mid-week, boosting enterprises' willingness to make shipments, but downstream consumers remained cautious in pre-holiday procurement, and overall actual transactions in the spot market were relatively weak. This week, the rise in lead prices helped repair smelter losses to some extent, but persistently high raw material costs for scrap batteries still put certain pressure on smelter profits. As of April 3, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -133 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -315 yuan/mt (the by-product revenue in the model did not include tin and antimony). Next week, after the holiday, the pace of smelter production resumptions will accelerate, coupled with continued inflows of imported lead, leaving overall supply relatively ample. As the consumption off-season approaches, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead are expected to continue moving sideways within a range, with limited room for the premium range to expand. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM, April 7: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices dropped sharply, hitting a low of 16,635 yuan/mt, before rebounding in a fluctuating manner to touch a high of 16,820 yuan/mt. However, weighed down by weak downstream consumption, lead prices came under pressure and pulled back again. During the afternoon session, prices moved sideways within the 16,660-16,690 yuan/mt range, edging slightly higher toward the close, and ultimately settled at 16,730 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 55 yuan/mt, or 0.33%. Supply side, for primary lead, suppliers actively made shipments upon returning from the holiday, with some lowering their quoted discounts. For secondary lead, secondary refined lead had ample circulating supply in the market, and quotes overall weakened today. Consumption side, as lead prices had been at elevated levels recently, downstream buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see approach, reluctant to purchase at high prices, resulting in extremely low market trading activity. Lead prices were capped by weak downstream consumption, limiting upward momentum, while raw material costs provided rigid support on the downside. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information was derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Uncertainty + Approaching Holiday, Lead Prices Are Expected to Remain in a Consolidation Pattern] US President Trump claimed on his own that he had achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the war against Iran and would launch extremely fierce strikes in the next two to three weeks. As of Friday, with parts of the European and US markets closed for Good Friday and China also approaching the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on Friday...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Tailwinds Boosted Lead Prices Higher; Follow-up Focus on Alignment With Fundamentals] US President Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz were opened. Recently, there have been signs of easing geopolitical tensions outside China, and market risk aversion sentiment has weakened, leading to a relative rebound in nonferrous metals, among which imported lead has flowed into the Chinese market...

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