[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Complex Macro Landscape, Lead Prices More Closely Aligned with Fundamentals] Recently, geopolitical conflicts outside China have been intricate and complex, with wars and negotiations going back and forth, and risk-averse sentiment running high in the market. Meanwhile, LME lead inventory continued to decline...

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.

SMM, April 21: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt intraday. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead trended higher in a fluctuating manner. During the afternoon session, prices moved sideways within the range of 16,825-16,855 yuan/mt. Prices edged up near the close, touching a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 16,845 yuan/mt, forming a bullish candlestick with no lower shadow, up 115 yuan/mt or 0.69%. On the fundamentals, lead inventory drawdowns outside China combined with maintenance at some domestic secondary lead smelters provided support for lead prices, while inflows of imported lead, weakening lead-acid battery exports, and social inventory buildup of lead ingots capped the upside room for lead prices. Sentiment side, tensions in US-Iran geopolitical situation disturbed longer-term futures sentiment. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Issues Remain Volatile, Lead Prices to More Closely Track Fundamentals] Last Friday, US President Trump confirmed that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz, declaring the strait situation resolved. However, over the weekend the situation reversed, with Iran firing again to force back oil tankers. Recently, China's lead-acid battery market has been in the off-season, and lead ingot inventory has risen, becoming a strong bearish factor for lead prices. In mid-to-late April...

[Lead-acid Battery Market Dynamics] It is reported that Tianneng Group Guizhou Energy Technology Co., Ltd., located in the Taijiang Economic Development Zone in Guizhou, according to Pang Mingduo, Deputy General Manager of the company: "Currently, the automation rate of the factory's production lines has reached 95%, and capacity has doubled compared to the initial stage. Daily production of new energy batteries has surged from 40,000 units to 135,000 units. Every year, 40,000 mt of waste batteries are recycled and handed over to Guizhou Qizhen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. for processing. The secondary lead they produce can meet 70% of Tianneng's raw material needs."

[Secondary Lead Market Update] It was reported that recently, the Hefei Branch of Bank of Jiujiang, in response to the characteristics of the secondary lead industry — "capital-intensive raw material procurement and urgent production turnover needs" — assembled a professional team and customized a comprehensive financial service plan, ultimately approving a credit line of 280 million yuan for Anhui Lukong Environmental Protection Co., Ltd.

SMM April 17 News: Lead prices were weak in the first half of this week, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt, and smelters saw sluggish shipments. In the second half of the week, lead prices rose, and quotes pulled back to discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, with shipment enthusiasm rebounding. Downstream sectors were in the consumption off-season, mainly restocking on dips and purchasing via long-term contracts. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified. Both supply and demand are expected to be weak next week, with premiums moving sideways. Affected by weak lead prices and high scrap battery costs, secondary lead smelting losses widened. As of April 17, large-scale enterprises posted profits/losses of -200 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted -404 yuan/mt. Some producers plan to cut or halt production next week to control losses. Weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve, and the industry's loss-making landscape will be difficult to reverse in the short term.

SMM April 17 News: As of April 16, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 18,100 mt, an increase of 400 mt compared to April 9, with the pace of inventory buildup this week slowing down significantly. Dragged by narrowing profits, the willingness to import lead declined, and coupled with weakening smelter operating rates, inventory increments converged notably. Looking ahead to next week, suppliers are expected to maintain firm offers supported by costs, with relatively weak willingness to sell; meanwhile, operating rates will further decline, as enterprises prioritize long-term contract deliveries and spot order supplies shrink, finished product inventories are expected to have a probability of destocking.

SMM April 17 News: From April 10 to April 16, 2026, SMM statistics showed that the weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces in China was 41.94%, down 2.87 percentage points WoW. In Anhui, the operating rate dropped 7.67 percentage points due to enterprise equipment failures and raw material shortages. In Henan, some enterprises cut production due to insufficient raw materials. In Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia, as lead prices fluctuated in the first half of the week and recyclers' shipments improved, raw material restocking led to a slight production increase. Next week, the probability of recyclers holding back from selling is expected to rise, and expectations for production cuts at smelters are expected to strengthen, with the operating rate projected to decline by another 0.6 percentage points.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt. After briefly touching $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session, it fluctuated downward. Entering the European session, LME lead extended its decline, dipping to $1,946/mt late in the session and closing at $1,947/mt, down 0.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a high of 16,765 yuan/mt early in the session, it fluctuated downward to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. On the macro front: On Thursday, US President Trump said the war among the US, Israel, and Iran was “about to end,” and the White House was optimistic about reaching an agreement, saying more face-to-face talks might be held in Pakistan this weekend. US Fed—Williams: if inflation pulls back to 2%, cutting interest rate is an appropriate move, but it has not reached that stage yet; Milan: inclined to cut interest rate three times this year, possibly four times; as of this morning, interest rate futures priced in cumulative interest rate cuts of about 9 bp for the full year. China’s Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to advance the industrial development of the low-altitude economy for central state-owned enterprises. National Bureau of Statistics: in March, the MoM change in sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%; value-added industrial output above designated size grew 5.7% YoY in real terms. : After lead prices rose, lead smelters and traders became more willing to make shipments, though differences in shipments remained. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 130 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, losses eased relatively, smelters’ willingness to ship increased, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, downstream enterprises had limited procurement demand and stayed on the sidelines amid high prices, and spot order transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On April 16, LME lead inventory fell by 350 mt to 275,625 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions edged up. Today’s lead price forecast: The lead-acid battery market is in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream enterprises have limited procurement demand, and spot market trading activity is relatively weak. In addition, due to delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract, suppliers transferred inventory to delivery warehouses, and overall social inventory continued to rise. Also, medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China saw concentrated production cuts and suspensions, including factors such as routine maintenance and insufficient raw materials. In addition, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead narrowed, import lead premium quotes rose, and the inflow of imported refined lead decreased relatively. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined on the fundamentals and geopolitical issues recurring, lead prices maintained wild swings in the short term. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.