SMM August 11: According to SMM production schedule data, in July, the total MoM impact volume of refined lead from China's secondary lead enterprises was -16,800 mt. Most smelters proactively cut production due to dual pressures of market losses and raw material shortages, causing the industry's monthly operating rate to pull back to 29.81%, significantly lower than the level in the same period of previous years. August production schedules are under further pressure, with the MoM impact volume of refined lead reaching -22,300 mt. Most enterprises had previously held a pessimistic outlook on the future market, making maintenance and low-load operations the mainstream. Many smelters' original plans to resume production have been postponed to September. Recently, futures have seen a phased rebound, with secondary refined lead prices following the rise and smelter losses narrowing somewhat. On the profitability side, although still in loss-making territory, margins have improved, leading to divergent production sentiments: A few smelters in East China, seeing profit recovery, are showing a willingness to ramp up production; some smelters in North China have broken with their original plans and chosen to resume production early with small furnaces. However, the industry as a whole remains deeply mired in negative earnings territory, with small and medium-sized plants still suffering relatively large losses, and no widespread wave of production restarts has yet emerged. Raw material side, the price of waste e-bike batteries pulled back to 9,175 yuan/mt, easing raw material cost pressures somewhat. However, scrap battery recycling supply has not increased significantly, continuing to constrain overall output. Looking at the details of production schedules, East China, as a major secondary lead-producing region, shows clear divergence: Only a few enterprises plan to ramp up production, while most smelters remain shut down or at low loads. In Central and North China, most furnace revivals and production resumptions are still concentrated at the end of August to September, limiting overall growth in August. Enterprise production is highly anchored to lead prices and raw material arrivals. Demand side, the lead-acid battery industry remains in its traditional off-season, with overall downstream procurement being cautious, limiting any boost to lead prices. This round of lead price rebound is driven more by supply contraction in the primary sector and speculative bears closing positions ahead of delivery, without a simultaneous recovery in end-use consumption. In summary, overall secondary lead supply in August will remain at low levels. While narrowing losses have led to localized production ramp-ups and early restarts, this does not yet constitute a full supply recovery. Whether subsequent output can see a substantial rebound still depends on the sustainability of the lead price recovery, the release of scrap battery recycling volume, and the recovery of downstream battery demand. The realization of production resumptions in September remains uncertain.

SMM, August 11: Today, secondary refined lead suppliers showed a strong willingness to raise offer prices, with multiple smelters suggesting the online price be raised by 100 yuan/mt; some cargoes saw discounts to the SMM #1 lead average price widen to 100-75 yuan/mt, while certain export cargoes still held prices firm, offering a premium of 75 yuan/mt delivered to downstream. Although smelters’ sentiment to hold prices firm was strong, downstream purchases were relatively cautious, with certain top-tier players hoping to secure spot orders at a discount of 175 yuan/mt ex-factory, resulting in a clear market divergence. Today, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,625 yuan/mt, a discount of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment stood at 1.17, and the secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment was 1.01 today (historical data can be accessed in the database).

SMM, August 11: The waste lead-acid battery market consolidated with slight gains today. Some secondary lead smelters successively raised their purchase quotes by 20-100 yuan/mt, while others held prices steady for the time being, with regional price adjustment paces diverging. As earlier expectations for price hikes were gradually met, market sentiment warmed up. Some recyclers still held expectations of further price increases, turning cautious in selling and waiting for additional price adjustments from smelters. Overall circulation of social sources was moderate, and smelters had not yet engaged in widespread aggressive buying to chase higher prices. Scrap battery prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. Monitor lead price trends, recyclers' willingness to sell, smelters' arrivals, and subsequent price adjustments.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply-Side Contraction Eases Inventory Buildup Pressure, Lead Prices Expected to Maintain Consolidation Trend] PBOC: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Recently, primary lead and secondary lead enterprises in some regions have undergone maintenance or production cuts, leading to regional supply tightening...

SMM August 10 News: Futures side, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened and consolidated on a strong note during the day, breaking above the recent consolidation range. Bears closing positions pushed the price center higher, and it held up well near the close. The high was 15,890 yuan/mt, and it finally settled at 15,870 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's closing price of 15,730 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.89%. Intraday trading volume was 60,214 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,006 lots to 60,186 lots. Overall, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract formed small bullish candlesticks on the daily chart for two consecutive days, indicating some short-term strength in futures. However, spot market follow-through was relatively limited, with suppliers actively selling and downstream users cautious and wait-and-see due to high prices. Supply-side tightness in some cargoes and secondary lead cost side provided some support, while insufficient procurement volume on the demand side limited further upside room for prices. Lead prices may continue to consolidate on a strong note in the near term, with attention on inventory changes before delivery, downstream acceptance of higher prices, and the recovery of secondary lead supply.

[Waste Lead-Acid Battery Market Dynamics] Intraday lead prices drifted higher, and sentiment of holding back from selling among waste lead-acid battery recyclers intensified. Some secondary lead smelters plan to raise scrap battery purchase prices to ensure raw material arrivals. It is reported that a company in east China has raised its water battery price by 20 yuan/mt, while its EV battery price remains unchanged, effective tomorrow.

SMM August 10: Today, most market participants suggested keeping online prices stable. Mainstream spot order sources were offered at discounts of 25-50 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price, and shipments still faced pressure. Downstream purchases were based on demand, with limited willingness to proactively purchase, and overall trading performance was average. Today, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,550 yuan/mt, at a discount of 25 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment was 1.07, and today's secondary refined lead purchasing sentiment was 1.21 (historical data can be accessed in the database).

SMM August 10 News: Scrap battery side, market quotations remained stable overall today. SHFE lead performed relatively strong in the morning, with the price center moving up during the session, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent, but secondary lead smelters remained cautious in adjusting prices. Currently, last week's purchase orders have not yet been fully delivered, and some smelters indicated they are not in a hurry to raise scrap battery purchase prices for the time being, in order to avoid situations where recyclers renege on orders or supply sources are switched after the transition between old and new quotations. The pace of purchasing and selling among traders remained stable overall, with operations still focused on quick buying and selling. However, as lead prices stabilized and expectations for price hikes heated up, the wait-and-see sentiment among some market participants strengthened. If lead prices and supply and demand remain stable this week, some smelters may see a slight increase in their scrap battery purchase quotations in the latter half of the week.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Delivery-Driven Inventory Buildup Puts Pressure on Short-Term Lead Prices, Which Will Consolidate on a Subdued Note] According to US media: Trump has delayed military action against Iran, saying he is "handling the Iran issue quietly." Recently, social inventory of lead ingots has been accumulating, which is a normal phenomenon before the delivery of SHFE lead...

[Secondary Lead Production Updates] A secondary lead smelter in east China halted production yesterday. The enterprise said it plans to halt production for three months. During this period, it will monitor market trends. If lead prices rebound and losses are recovered, it can resume production ahead of schedule.