SMM July 21 News: The SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,900 yuan/mt, during the morning session it first fell then rose, fluctuated narrowly around the 15,885 yuan/mt level, and finally closed at 15,885 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan from the previous settlement, with an intraday gain of 0.47%. Downstream battery demand was weak in the off-season, capping gains. Secondary lead smelters faced deficits and maintenance, while stable scrap battery prices provided support, resulting in a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts. In the short term, SHFE lead will continue to move sideways. Going forward, monitor production resumptions at secondary lead smelters and changes in downstream operations. Data Source Statement: All data except for public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. This is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.

SMM July 17 news: This week, scrap battery purchase prices fell sharply alongside lead prices, with recyclers holding inventory and taking a wait-and-see stance, unwilling to sell at low prices. Meanwhile, smelters made only just-in-time procurement of scrap batteries due to weak buying sentiment from downstream battery enterprises, making it difficult to support significant price increases. Looking ahead to next week, attention should be paid to smelter production conditions and their demand for raw materials. If demand remains sluggish, the upside room for scrap battery prices will be very limited.

SMM July 16 News: After a significant decline in lead prices earlier, spot quotations held steady today, with the wait-and-see sentiment remaining strong in the scrap battery market. Smelters have not raised their purchase prices for scrap yet, and recycling traders are reluctant to buy in large quantities, fearing that prices may fall again and cause losses. The inventory of scrap batteries circulating in the market is low; repair shops and retail sellers are unwilling to sell at low prices and are mostly stockpiling, waiting for prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises purchase small quantities as needed, with no concentrated restocking plan. The pace of circulation has slowed down, and in the short term, scrap battery prices have little upside room; the market remains in a weak stalemate.

SMM July 15: Overnight lead prices plunged. Today, most smelters lowered their quotes for waste lead-acid batteries by 50-100 yuan/mt. In east China, some smelters even halted quoting and purchasing to prevent raw material depreciation. Some enterprises maintained prices for three days and then adopted a 50 yuan/mt cut. Recyclers actively sold goods today, while a few took a wait-and-see stance.

SMM July 10 News: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,060 yuan/mt, moved sideways after opening, with a high of 16,095 yuan/mt during the period. In the afternoon, it drifted lower to touch a low of 15,975 yuan/mt, and finally closed at a high of 16,015 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.77%. As downstream enterprises' purchase willingness for lead ingots remained subdued, the upward momentum for lead prices was clearly insufficient; meanwhile, secondary lead smelters' concentrated maintenance due to market-induced losses, compounded by firm scrap battery prices, provided support for lead prices. Subsequently, attention turned to the delivery of the SHFE lead 2607 contract and the impact of primary lead smelter production resumptions on lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, by SMM, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

SMM July 10 News: This week, scrap battery supply remained tight. With lead prices weakening, recyclers' willingness to sell was low. Scrap generation in the southwest was limited, while extreme weather in Northeast China, Central China, and South China disrupted transportation, causing raw material arrivals at smelters to generally decline. Next week, the tightness in scrap battery supply is unlikely to ease. Some smelters plan maintenance and production cuts, and the market will maintain a tug-of-war with tight supply and weak demand. Scrap battery prices are expected to remain stable.

SMM July 10 News: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,060 yuan/mt, moved sideways after opening, with a high of 16,095 yuan/mt during the period. In the afternoon, it drifted lower to touch a low of 15,975 yuan/mt, and finally closed at a high of 16,015 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.77%. As downstream enterprises' purchase willingness for lead ingots remained subdued, the upward momentum for lead prices was clearly insufficient; meanwhile, secondary lead smelters' concentrated maintenance due to market-induced losses, compounded by firm scrap battery prices, provided support for lead prices. Subsequently, attention turned to the delivery of the SHFE lead 2607 contract and the impact of primary lead smelter production resumptions on lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, by SMM, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

SMM, July 3: Scrap battery prices weakened this week, as lead ingot prices fell by a cumulative 200 yuan/mt in June, dragging down the average scrap battery price across regions. Secondary lead smelters remained loss-making and adopted a cautious approach to material purchasing. Early in the week, the decline in lead prices prompted recyclers to sell intensively, increasing arrivals in east and north China; later in the week, supply tightened and smelters did not raise purchase prices after lead prices rebounded, cooling recyclers’ willingness to sell. The terminal battery off-season kept operating rates low, while hazardous waste rectifications squeezed non-mainstream supply, leaving the short-term market mixed. Supply tightening and expectations of smelter production resumptions in July lent support, while smelting losses capped room for price hikes. Scrap battery prices are expected to remain stable in a narrow range, with a need to track lead prices and smelter resumption progress.

SMM July 2: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt. In early trading, prices repeatedly drifted lower, dipping to an intraday low of $1,853/mt. Subsequently, bearish selling pressure eased somewhat, and prices consolidated and rebounded. During the latter half of the evening session, the uptrend accelerated, and prices gradually rebounded, reaching a high of $1,881.5/mt. Near the close, prices pulled back under slight pressure and finally settled at $1,866.5/mt, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow, down $5.5/mt, or 0.29%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief surge to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls ran out of steam, and bears entered to press prices into a sustained retreat, touching a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Finding slight support from small buy orders at the low, it rebounded modestly, currently trading at 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.41%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 1,263 lots. The contract retreated after a rapid rise and exhibited overall weakness. LME lead inventories are high, Goldman Sachs keeps adding to bearish positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are dragging on SHFE lead. On the supply side, lead concentrates are in short supply, and TCs continue to fall in July; primary lead smelters that underwent maintenance will resume production in July and are expected to increase output by 20,000 mt. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices have fallen, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, the battery sector enters the off-season, with downstream users only making small, low-price trial purchases and no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the near term; they will only stop falling once downstream users make concentrated purchases and secondary lead production cuts materialize.

Futures: The overnight LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt, then drifted lower in the initial session, dipping to $1,853/mt during the day before bearish pressure eased and futures rebounded. In the latter part of the evening session, the rally accelerated, with prices gradually climbing to a high of $1,881.5/mt. Towards the close, futures pulled back under modest pressure to settle at $1,866.5/mt, forming a long lower shadow candlestick and losing $5.5/mt, a decline of 0.29%. The overnight SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief early spike to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls lost momentum as bears entered to push prices lower, with the contract dropping to a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Gaining some support from light buying at the lows, prices rebounded slightly and are now trading near 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.41%. Trading volume expanded and open interest edged up by 1,263 lots, with the contract retreating after a rapid rise and showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and inflation risks have both diminished in recent weeks. The US ADP employment change for June increased by less than expected. Warsh reportedly appointed a Bessent aide as a Fed advisor. Meta is reportedly considering selling surplus AI computing power. Wang Yi held a telephone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. An agent confirmed that MLCC giant Yageo raised prices. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead has recently suffered successive breakdowns, and losses widened again today, with suppliers holding prices firm on their cargoes—lead ingot cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, the discount on EXW primary lead smelter cargoes narrowed. In major producing regions, quotations were near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelter losses deepened as lead prices fell, and some enterprises signaled potential production cuts or suspensions. Market quotes were scarce, with a few secondary refined lead offers at premiums of 0–75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the semi-annual liquidity squeeze eased in July, large downstream enterprises resumed normal procurement and showed marginally higher inquiry interest. However, given the sharp decline in lead prices, most downstream enterprises remained cautious, leaving market trading volumes subdued. Inventories: As of July 1, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,900 mt to 301,775 mt. As of June 29, SMM data showed total social inventory of lead ingots across five major domestic regions climbed to 71,200 mt, reaching a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure remaining pronounced. Lead Price Outlook Today: LME lead inventory remains elevated, while Goldman Sachs continues to add short positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are weighing on SHFE lead. Supply side, lead concentrate availability is tight, with July TCs extending their decline; primary lead smelters resuming production after maintenance are expected to add 20,000 mt of output in July. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices fall, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, batteries enter the consumption off-season, with downstream only making small tentative purchases at low prices, and there is no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the short term, and a stop in their decline will require downstream concentrated purchasing and the implementation of secondary lead production cuts.