[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Edges Down on July 31] Today, SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices edged down slightly from the previous working day. In futures, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened low at 143,900 yuan/mt today, briefly shot up to 144,400 yuan/mt before being pressured by bears, and prices consolidated lower and broke below the average price line. During the morning session, prices fluctuated weakly in the 142,000–143,500 yuan/mt range; near midday, bears intensified pressure, and prices rapidly dropped to around 140,000 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices consolidated at lows, and near the close, bears pressed again, causing prices to slide further and hit a fresh intraday low of 137,800 yuan/mt. The contract ultimately closed down 4.84% at 137,800 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 3,001 lots. In the spot market, at month-end, the downstream procurement pace slowed, with purchasing on dips as needed dominating. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold spot order prices firm, and long-term contract volume additions increased. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable. In July, affected by maintenance at lithium chemical plants using both spodumene and lepidolite routes, China's lithium carbonate production saw a notable decline. Entering August, although maintenance at plants relying on spodumene and lepidolite continues, salt lake lithium extraction benefited from warmer weather, and output climbed significantly, which is expected to effectively supplement overall supply. Overall, China's total lithium carbonate production in August is expected to increase by 7% MoM.

On July 29, Rio Tinto announced its 2026 H1 results. According to the data, in H1, Rio Tinto's underlying earnings reached $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY; net profit was $6.66 billion, up 47% YoY. In H1, net cash generated from operating activities was $9.2 billion, underlying EBITDA was $14.8 billion, underlying ROIC was 17%, underlying earnings per share were 421.4¢, dividends per ordinary share were 211¢, and the payout ratio was 50%.

The first half of 2026 is already in the past. At the start of H2, industry chain enterprises have begun to release their H1 2026 performance forecasts collectively. Notably, against the backdrop of a significantly higher YoY lithium price center, stable demand in the NEV industry, and a continuously booming energy storage sector, most enterprises in the lithium industry chain expect varying degrees of performance improvement. SMM has compiled the performance forecast situations of some enterprises in the industry chain, as follows:

[SMM Analysis: Jiuwu Hi-Tech's LATP Solid-State Electrolyte Passes 4.62V Extreme Overcharge Test, Ceramic Membrane Giant's Dual-Track Solid-State Battery Layout] Jiuwu Hi-Tech's LATP solid-state electrolyte was applied in NCM811 pouch batteries and passed the extreme overcharge (4.62V) and over-discharge (0V) tests according to GB38031-2020, with no smoke, fire, or explosion throughout the process, a temperature rise of ≤5°C, and a significantly improved safety margin. The company has adopted a dual-track layout of oxides (LLZO/LATP) and sulphides, achieved mt-level mass production and supplied leading battery cell enterprises, while advancing a hundred-mt-level pilot scale-up. Leveraging nearly 30 years of ceramic membrane technology expertise, it is positioning itself in the key materials segment for solid-state batteries.

[SMM Lithium Battery] Soochow Securities research report noted that Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) delivered results in line with our expectations, with the rise in lithium prices contributing to earnings flexibility.

From a supply-demand balance perspective, China's lithium carbonate market exhibited a tight balance in H1 2026, with sellers and buyers continuously seeking new equilibrium points amid bargaining.

Zijin Mining said its lithium business is progressing steadily, with the Manono lithium project in the DRC commencing dense media separation operations in May 2026, about one month ahead of schedule. The first-stage refining project is expected to be completed by December 2026, while the 3Q Salt Lake, Laguocuo Salt Lake and Xiangyuan hard-rock lithium projects continue ramping up production.

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices fell steadily, with the center of gravity gradually shifting downward. The futures market was weak, with the most-traded September 2026 contract drifting lower from a range of 163,300-168,700 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 151,000-166,400 yuan/mt, hitting a weekly low of 151,000 yuan/mt mid-week—a weekly decline of about 6.8%. Open interest fell then rose, with bears taking the dominant position. Market transactions showed a stalemate between downstream dip-buying and upstream price-firming, with actual deal activity relatively brisk. Upstream, lithium chemical plants continued to hold back from selling, with some enterprises still anchoring to the psychological 170,000 yuan/mt level and unwilling to sell at low prices, only showing a stronger willingness to sell at relatively high price levels. Downstream material plants continued to buy the dip, with strong buying interest around 150,000 yuan/mt; some enterprises, considering the recent wide price fluctuations, lean toward adopting backward pricing models to hedge against short-term price rise risks. Overall, market inquiry and actual deal activity were relatively brisk, but a significant gap remained between upstream and downstream psychological price levels. On the supply side, production continued to fall, with notable divergence in inventory across the supply chain. Lithium carbonate production continued to decline this week, mainly due to some lithium chemical plants going into planned maintenance, leading to marked reductions in output at lines using spodumene and lepidolite as raw material; production from salt lake and recycling sources remained stable, maintaining a modest upward trajectory. In terms of inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm on spot orders, but under output fluctuations, in-factory inventory kept destocking; downstream material plants matched warrants around delivery months, purchasing mostly on a just-in-time basis, with inventories also slightly drawing down; traders increased their warrant-taking, while downstream showed no strong willingness to sell in large volumes, causing a moderate buildup in trader inventories. Overall, inventory conditions diverged clearly across segments, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continuing. Fund flows featured dominant bearish position-building. Futures open interest grew overall alongside price declines, with a particularly notable 5,434-lot increase on July 9, suggesting active shorts entering the market, with sentiment running bearish. Looking ahead, in the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating subdued note. Supply side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening raw material circulation offer some support to prices; however, the supply flexibility from Q3 shipment arrivals of Zimbabwean lithium ore and the effective supply of domestic lithium carbonate from Jiangxi mines remain key variables going forward. Demand side, downstream just-in-time procurement and willingness to restock near 150,000 yuan/mt provide price floors, but momentum to chase higher prices is lacking. Lithium prices are expected to consolidate within the 150,000-165,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Today, the SMM spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continued to fall from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 159,600 yuan/mt. After the open, concentrated bearish positions drove prices quickly below the average price line, with a sustained decline. During the morning session, prices moved sideways in a narrow range below the average price line as bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war between 155,000 and 158,500 yuan/mt. Around noon, bears strengthened again, accelerating the price drop, which touched a low of 151,000 yuan/mt. In the final session, the price consolidated at lows before rebounding slightly to around 153,000 yuan/mt and closing with a 5.17% loss at 153,400 yuan/mt. Open interest added 5,434 lots. In the spot market, downstream material plants continued to buy the dip, resulting in relatively active market enquiries and actual transactions, while upstream lithium chemical plants maintained a sentiment of holding prices firm. Lithium carbonate production continued to decline this week, mainly because some lithium chemical plants entered planned maintenance, leading to notably reduced output from spodumene- and lepidolite-based production lines. In contrast, production at salt lake and recycling facilities remained stable and continued to edge up. From the perspectives of market transactions and inventory changes, upstream lithium chemical plants still held prices firm and held back from selling in spot orders, with their willingness to sell only increasing when prices were at relatively high levels. However, influenced by production fluctuations, their in-factory inventories continued to destock. Downstream material plants engaged in warrant matching for the delivery month, with purchases mainly based on rigid demand, so their inventories also saw slight destocking. Traders' receipt of warrants increased somewhat, but downstream players did not show significant willingness to sell, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory among traders. Overall, inventory divergence across these segments was evident, and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persisted.

[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, overall sentiment in the industry chain recovered, as a rebound in upstream raw material prices drove some material prices higher. Lithium carbonate, LFP, and separator segments performed strongly. Downstream production schedules stayed high, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and power batteries still providing support. However, acceptance of high prices was limited, and actual transactions were mostly based on essential needs. Cobalt salts, nickel salts, and ternary cathode precursors remained in the doldrums, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Overall, short-term prices may continue to drift higher, but attention still needs to be paid to raw material arrivals, the sustainability of restocking, and the realization of end-use demand going forward.]