[Thailand] Recently, the Thai hot-rolled galvanized steel market has been deeply dragged down by traditional off-season factors, with overall transaction performance remaining sluggish and transaction prices showing a pronounced month-on-month decline trend. In terms of pricing and competition, the market has been strongly impacted by low-priced zinc-aluminum-magnesium coated steel orders. According to SMM survey, their offer levels have been pushed down to 585-590 USD/tonne, causing diversion and a price collapse for normal hot-rolled galvanized steel export channels and pricing. In the short term, the off-season effect is expected to continue to overshadow the market, with hot-rolled galvanized steel price weakness difficult to reverse; a substantive market recovery may have to wait until August and September, when the off-season gradually ends and the demand side may finally see more evident improvement and signs of recovery.

SMM Morning Report: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,383.5/mt. Early in the session, amid wild swings, it touched a low of $13,334/mt, before the center of copper prices shifted upward sharply to reach a high of $13,433/mt. It then drifted lower to finally close at $13,380/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, and open interest was 245,000 lots, down 1,684 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,870 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it dipped to 102,640 yuan/mt, then the price center shifted higher to touch a high of 103,420 yuan/mt, before drifting lower, moving sideways, and finally closing at 102,880 yuan/mt, up 0.38%. Trading volume reached 34,000 lots, and open interest 154,000 lots, down 1,382 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position reduction.

Today, DCE iron ore futures consolidated. Contract I2609 eventually closed at 747 yuan/mt, up 0.61% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose by 0-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, steel mill purchases were mostly based on rigid demand, and as of now, spot trading volume was moderate. Currently, iron ore fundamentals continued to show a bearish structure. The supply side remained loose, with no clear signs of shifting, while demand entered a plateau phase, expected to continue trending downward in the future. This week's SMM survey data showed that the impact on hot metal due to blast furnace maintenance was 1.1563 million mt, down 48,700 mt WoW, and next week, the estimated impact is expected to reach 1.2005 million mt. On the news front, marginal disruptions dominated, with bullish news prevailing, but not yet pointing to a one-sided market. Therefore, taking everything into account, short-term iron ore prices will continue to move sideways. [SMM Steel]

During the survey period (June 23–June 29), the production and capacity utilization rates of rebar and wire rod in Central China remained stable.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,341/mt. In early trading, it drifted higher to touch a high of $13,379/mt. Then the center of copper prices drifted lower to touch a low of $13,252.5/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher again and eventually closed at $13,344.5/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 14,200 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, down 256 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, it quickly rose to a high of 102,850 yuan/mt. Then the price center drifted lower to touch a low of 102,100 yuan/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher and finally ended at 102,340 yuan/mt, down 0.79%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, down 1,906 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bulls reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,269.5/mt. It dipped to a low of $13,250/mt during wild swings in early trading, then the center of copper prices drifted higher and rose to $13,378/mt near the session's end, finally closing at $13,322/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume reached 19,100 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, down 1,285 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,240 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 102,020 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices moved steadily upward and reached a high of 102,930 yuan/mt near the session's end, finally closing at 102,740 yuan/mt, up 1.16%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 156,000 lots, down 3,193 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

DCE iron ore futures traded on a strong note today before pulling back slightly near the close, with the most-traded I2609 contract finally closing at 748 yuan/mt, up 0.81% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 8-11 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot trading volume has been moderate so far. Looking ahead, according to the SMM survey, port data for iron ore this period showed slight destocking, with total inventory reaching 148.66 million mt, down 690,000 mt MoM, while port pick-up volume edged down 38,000 mt to 3.23 million mt. The destocking was mainly driven by lower port arrivals. Overall, the iron ore supply side remained ample. On the news front, market rumors were frequent, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts was intense, with no clear divergence emerging yet. With fundamentals and sentiment intertwined, iron ore prices are likely to continue moving sideways in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of $13,190/mt, and finally closed at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume was 26,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, up 306 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,180 yuan/mt, edged up to 102,600 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume was 55,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 2,799 lots from the previous session, indicating that bears reduced positions. On the macro front, US PCE data largely met expectations, and the US dollar index halted its three-day rally. Geopolitically, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that unauthorized transits are "unacceptable," and Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which heightened Middle East tensions again and pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. These factors eased rate hike concerns, and the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, helping copper prices stabilize and rebound.

According to SMM survey, on June 25, the total inventory at 10 ports tracked by SMM was 109.59 million tonnes, declined 900k tonnes WoW. Iron Ore Fines, concentrate, and pellets saw destocking, while lump ore saw a slight inventory buildup.