According to customs data, China's aluminum foil (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) total exports in March 2026 reached 103,500 mt, up 10% MoM but down 13% YoY. The share of exports to the UAE plunged from 6.8% in January-February to 2.5% in March, with the Middle East trade chain nearly severed.

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

[SMM Survey: Global Magnesium Supply Landscape Undergoes Accelerated Restructuring with Simultaneous Breakthroughs in Australian Waste Residue Magnesium Extraction and EU Strategic Projects] Australia's waste residue magnesium extraction project achieved a key breakthrough, Greenland's Molli Hill received EU strategic certification, and Romania launched dual projects. The global magnesium supply chain is undergoing accelerated restructuring, with trends toward green and regional development emerging.

[Electric Drive Assembly Designated Orders Landed, Magnesium Alloy Opens Up Incremental Space in Automotive Sector] Recently, the application of magnesium alloy in the lightweighting of NEVs accelerated, with semi-solid die casting and large-scale integrated molding technology becoming the mainstream direction. Orders and capacity for core components such as electric drive housings and auto body structural parts advanced simultaneously.

[SMM Analysis] This week (April 27-April 30), Yangshan copper premiums B/L weekly average price range was 53.5-71.5 $/mt, QP June, average price $62.5/mt; warrant weekly average price range was 56-72.5 $/mt, QP May, average price $64.25/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was 22.5-41 $/mt, QP June, average price $31.75/mt.

Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, SMM surveyed galvanising enterprises on their holiday arrangements. This survey covered 27 galvanising enterprises with a total capacity of 20.10 million mt. According to SMM, some enterprises will take 1-13 days off during the Labour Day holiday, while others will maintain normal production without any break, with an estimated total impact on zinc consumption of approximately 5,785 mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,073.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,098/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually declined to $12,967/mt, and finally closed at $12,989/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 19,400 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, an increase of 42 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,190 yuan/mt, rose to 101,390 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session to a low of 100,790 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 195,000 lots, a decrease of 896 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

On April 15, a delegation from SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), comprising Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of SMM's Industry Research Department, Feng Chundi, Expert of SMM's Industry Research Department, and Wu Tao, SMM's Copper and Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, visited CNMC Luanshya Copper Mines PLC for an on-site survey and consultation. The delegation received a warm welcome from the leadership of CNMC Luanshya. During the exchange, relevant executives of CNMC Luanshya provided a detailed introduction to the enterprise's development history, equity structure, mining-beneficiation-smelting production layout, mineral resource endowment, and daily operational management of overseas mines. They particularly highlighted that the company's core product, "CLM" brand copper cathode, completed LME registration and certification on December 27, 2023. Backed by stringent quality control, the product gained international market recognition, effectively enhancing its global circulation and core competitiveness. The SMM survey team, drawing on industry research and market tracking experience, shared insights on the copper industry's operational status in and outside China, price trends, policy environment, and upstream-downstream supply-demand patterns. During the discussion, both parties exchanged views on practical issues including international copper market dynamics, mining-beneficiation-smelting production operations, responses to raw material and finished product market fluctuations, and overseas mining management models. The communication was pragmatic and smooth, deepening mutual understanding and laying a solid foundation for ongoing regular exchanges and business collaboration. Brief Introduction to CNMC Luanshya Copper Mines PLC CNMC Luanshya Copper Mines PLC, referred to as "CNMC Luanshya" or "CLM," is a Sino-Zambian joint venture mining company restructured and established on November 10, 2009, after China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. (CNMC Group) participated in an international bidding process and successfully acquired the controlling stake in Luanshya Copper Mine. The company has a registered capital of $10.01 million, of which China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited, a subsidiary of CNMC Group, holds 80%, and Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Investment Holdings PLC holds 20%. The company's core business covers copper resource mining, beneficiation, and smelting, with main products including copper cathode and copper concentrates, and an annual copper metal production of 50,000 mt. It is a large-scale comprehensive mining enterprise integrating geological exploration, mining, beneficiation, and smelting. The company currently holds 7 large-scale mining licenses covering a total area of approximately 130 square kilometers. It operates multiple production units and projects, including the Muliashi hydrometallurgy smelter, beneficiation plant, Luanshya New Mine, and open-pit mine, making it one of CNMC Group's largest and most complete copper enterprises in Zambia in terms of investment scale and industry chain coverage. From its establishment in 2009 through the end of 2025, the company cumulatively produced over 670,000 mt of copper metal, generated cumulative revenue exceeding $4.7 billion, achieved cumulative total profits exceeding $1 billion, and returned $220 million to shareholders, contributing 90% of GDP, 90% of tax revenue, and 70% of stable employment to the Luanshya region. is scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. You are cordially invited to participate! Conference Contact : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

Iron ore futures traded stronger today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 787.5 yuan/mt, up 0.90% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 6-7 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude with fewer inquiries; overall spot transactions were thin. Fundamentals: According to the latest SMM survey data, daily average hot metal production pulled back to 2.4405 million mt, down 8,900 mt WoW. Some steel mills have successively formulated short-term maintenance plans, and overall hot metal production has begun to show signs of peaking and pulling back. Nevertheless, as downstream demand and cost support remain relatively solid, iron ore price support remains firm. Additionally, influenced by recent policies, market expectations for tightening liquidity in bulk commodities were strong, with some bullish sentiment emerging in the market overall; however, in the long term, tightening of iron ore trade liquidity is not sustainable. Therefore, ore prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, without a strong unilateral trend.