SMM Flash: Today, some of China’s steel export prices were raised by $3-5/mt, with order shipment schedules mostly concentrated in May. Recently, due to a sharp surge in freight rates, traders faced difficulty in making shipments, and HRC order-taking weakened significantly. According to the SMM survey, freight rates to the Middle East were as high as $50-60, while freight rates to Malaysia had also reached $30, and clients outside China showed strong wait-and-see sentiment.

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

SMM, March 17: Aluminum ingot: Today, sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market recovered moderately. The rebound in early-session futures prices drove spot prices higher, and suppliers took the opportunity to accelerate cashing out. Traders showed moderate willingness to purchase, while major players held prices firm in procurement, but downstream buyers were unwilling to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. In the afternoon, futures moved downward, buyers turned cautious, and transactions started steady before weakening, with overall performance showing a mild rebound. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fees for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) were 70 yuan/mt for Φ90/100 and 20 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The rise in the base price caused processing fees to continue to decline, while weaker intraday futures prices intensified downstream bearish sentiment, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. After futures surged and then pulled back, offers were lowered accordingly. Market inquiries were scarce, transactions were sluggish, and even volume discounts remained ineffective in stimulating deals.

During the survey period (March 10–March 16), the capacity utilization rate of rebar and wire rod rolling lines in the Central China region increased to varying degrees.

As of March 17, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 38.64%, up 3.26% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 39.87%, up 10.53% WoW; and daily average production of construction materials was 88,800 mt, up 23,500 mt WoW.

SMM Steel, February 24 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week reached 302,700 mt, up 50.90% WoW. By market:

SMM News, March 16: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 16, copper inventories in SMM’s major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday, with destocking seen across all regions. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies were normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover, leading to some inventory drawdown; in Jiangsu, inventory declined slightly, supported by recovering downstream consumption; in Guangdong, consumption continued to improve, arrivals remained normal, and inventories likewise maintained a destocking trend. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with overall supply stabilizing; demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand is gradually being released. According to the survey, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 79.19% this week, up 6.27 percentage points WoW. Taking both supply and demand into account, the market is currently showing a pattern of “stabilizing supply and recovering consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.