This week, against the backdrop of fluctuating upward copper prices, the secondary copper industry chain showed a complex situation in which extremely tight upstream raw material supply coexisted with persistent negative margins for downstream finished products. In the secondary copper rod market, SMM data showed that the operating rate fell further to 5.45% this week, down 0.38 percentage points MoM and 25.43 percentage points YoY

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Copper Anode Flash News] As the price difference between copper and scrap narrowed in mid-to-late March, copper scrap supply was tight, reducing the supply of scrap-derived copper anode. SMM data showed that Chinese smelters’ days of inventories for copper anode stood at 7.36 days in March 2026, down 0.56 days MoM.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Slightly Pessimistic Demand Expectations Cap Upside Room for ADC12 Prices]: On Thursday, ADC12 market prices remained largely stable. Downstream procurement is currently staying cautious, and overall market transactions were mediocre. Some enterprises are pessimistic about April order expectations, with wait-and-see sentiment intensifying and demand continuing to provide weak support for prices. The market’s primary contradiction has shifted from raw material cost-driven factors to insufficient consumption momentum. The increase in finished alloy ingot prices has clearly lagged behind the raw material side, and industry profit margins have consequently narrowed.

[SMM Tungsten Express] As of April 2, European tungsten raw material and scrap prices continued to rise. According to SMM data, APT CIF Rotterdam is quoted at $3,100-3,200/mtu, averaging $3,150/mtu, up $350 from last week. European scrap carbide blades are at €135-145/kg, averaging €140/kg, up €10 from last week; scrap drill tips at €145/kg. Trading activity was light ahead of the Easter holidays, but tight feedstock supply continues to support expectations of further price increases.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Rebounded After Bottoming Out in the Night Session, Up 0.91%; ADC12 to Continue Moving Sideways in a Narrow Range in the Short Term] Overnight, the most-traded 2605 aluminum alloy contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to around 23,623 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday low of 23,525 yuan/mt in the night session before stopping its decline and rebounding. During the session, bulls gradually pushed prices higher, sending them up to 23,780 yuan/mt, a fresh high for the night session, before pulling back slightly and moving sideways. It finally closed at 23,730 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous close, or 0.91%.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing] Silicon metal: The silicon metal market remained in a weak stalemate. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. Weaker expectations for production cuts on the supply side weighed on market sentiment. At the start of the week, futures prices trended weaker, and the center of spot transactions for some cargoes in the market edged lower. Cost support from the raw material side remained firm, and prices may fall back into stalemate. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 35.5-41.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices have continued to decline recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory exit the market among some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some producers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. Relevant meetings still need to be monitored going forward.