The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,175 yuan/mt today, hitting a high of 20,180 yuan/mt and a low of 19,965 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,040 yuan/mt, down 0.64%.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Mine Price Pullback Lowers Cost Center, Alumina and SHFE Aluminum Prices Under Pressure] Macro perspective, overseas trade protection and slowing growth create a bearish resonance; domestically, the trade-in policy continues to gain momentum, with three departments promoting the scrappage and renewal of high-emission trucks. Combined with a 1.3% YoY increase in nationwide electricity consumption from January to February, the divergence between domestic and international markets persists. Fundamentally, the recent tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market and further slight reductions in transaction prices. Spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term. The traditional peak season effect of "Golden March and Silver April" continues to manifest, and the aluminum supply and demand structure is steadily improving. Aluminum prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the near term, fluctuating downward. Short-term attention should remain on changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Alumina Surplus Pressure Persists, Dragging Aluminum Prices Downward] Today, SHFE aluminum was weighed down by alumina, with futures prices breaking below key support levels, turning weaker in the short term. Domestically, the release of macro policy dividends and the weak US dollar resonated, while US consumer confidence in March plummeted, and inflation expectations surged. The domestic favorable macro tone remains unchanged. On the fundamentals side, the recent tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot alumina transactions in the spot market and further slight declines in transaction prices. In the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to see simultaneous increases and decreases, maintaining a slight surplus in the alumina fundamentals. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term. Both supply and demand for aluminum are showing growth trends. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors are experiencing a rebound in order volumes and operating rates, coupled with destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory, providing strong support for aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Alumina Weakness Persists, SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Rangebound] Macro side, US consumer confidence in March plummeted, while inflation expectations surged; domestically, the favourable macro front remains unchanged. Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market. Transaction prices have seen a further slight decline. In the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to increase and decrease simultaneously, with no significant drop in total operating capacity anticipated. The alumina fundamentals remain in a slight surplus, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term. Both supply and demand for aluminum are growing. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors are seeing a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Coupled with destocking in aluminum ingot social inventory, this provides strong support for aluminum prices. Under the resonance of macro factors and the industry chain, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward at high levels in the short term.

SMM March 16 News: According to data from March 14, the weekly domestic port arrivals of bauxite reached 4.145 million metric tons, reflecting a week-over-week increase of 256,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, the weekly departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 4.593 million metric tons, an impressive rise of 1.375 million metric tons compared to the previous week. Similarly, Australia's main ports reported weekly bauxite departures of 1.127 million metric tons, marking an increase of 291,000 metric tons week-over-week.

[SMM Futures Aluminum Brief Review: Domestic Favourable Macro Front Remains the Main Theme, SHFE Aluminum Prices Showed a "V-Shaped" Rebound Today] Macro side, the endless tariff disputes have sparked concerns about a potential recession in the US economy. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Traders have now fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption is progressing, and capacity will be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminum ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminum ingot destocking almost clear. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises in the peak season continued to rebound, strengthening support for aluminum consumption.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief: Strengthened Interest Rate Cut Expectations, Alumina Prices Collapse and Decline] Macro side, US employment data fell short of expectations, strengthening expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year, and the US dollar index pulled back. Domestically, the Two Sessions signaled efforts to stabilize the economy, providing macro support for aluminum prices. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption progressed, with capacity expected to be released by the end of March. Inventory side, aluminum inventory continued destocking this week. According to the SMM survey, aluminum social inventory fell by 18,000 mt WoW to 868,000 mt today. Coupled with the "golden March and silver April" peak season, operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises continued to rebound, further strengthening support for aluminum consumption.

SMM March 9 News: According to data from March 7, the weekly total bauxite port arrivals at Chinese ports reached 3.889 million mt, a decrease of 681,400 mt compared to the previous week. The weekly total bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports were 3.2182 million mt, down by 898,500 mt from the previous week. The weekly total bauxite port departures from Australia's main ports were 836,200 mt, a decrease of 39,200 mt compared to the previous week.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Mixed Macro Factors, SHFE Aluminum Hits New High in This Rebound] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after declining, mainly supported by short-term export demand and stockpiling for transfer to delivery warehouses. However, the decline in overseas prices has squeezed export profit margins. The market is expected to see some new alumina capacity gradually come online, with the expectation of a loosening supply and demand balance for alumina remaining strong. Medium and long-term prices still face pressure. On the macro front, mixed factors prevail. Domestically, the favorable macro tone remains unchanged, while overseas trade barriers have increased, though with significant uncertainty, leaving the market in a state of contention. On the fundamentals side, both supply and demand are showing growth. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors are experiencing a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Coupled with the initial signs of a turning point in aluminum ingot social inventory destocking, this provides strong support for aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Tariff Agreement With Mexico Finalized, SHFE Aluminum Weakens Due to Alumina Drag] Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after declining, mainly supported by short-term export demand and stockpiling for delivery. However, overseas prices have declined, squeezing export profit margins. The market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online, reinforcing the expectation of a looser alumina supply and demand balance. Medium and long-term prices still face pressure. Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with short-term fluctuations likely to continue. Key areas to monitor include export profit and loss dynamics and changes in bauxite cost support. Driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations, SHFE aluminum remains more likely to rise than fall. However, concerns over escalating overseas trade frictions warrant close attention to policy expectations from the Two Sessions. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high-level upward fluctuation trend.