SMM August 4 news: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

SMM, August 3: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,400 yuan/mt today, reached a high of 23,665 yuan/mt, hit a low of 23,400 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,625 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.04% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 12,000 lots, open interest was 40,300 lots, and daily position change was -5,189 lots. The price stood above the MA5 (23505), MA10 (23357.50), MA20 (23228.50), and MA40 (23362.25), but still below the MA60 (23758.92). The short-term repairing pattern continued, but resistance remained overhead. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (23.83) was above the DEA (-72.27), and the histogram recorded 192.20, with bullish momentum still releasing. Trading volume was low, and the daily position change of -5,189 lots indicated a significant capital outflow. The session’s low opening and subsequent recovery largely reflected position-squaring repair, and sustained upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM comment: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with both sides discussing fund returns and strait security, and nuclear issue consultations are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to shrink, disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remained uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on non-ferrous metals prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in China and overseas fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums. The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,627 yuan/mt today, reached a high of 2,648 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,621 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,633 yuan/mt, down 2 yuan/mt or 0.08% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 149,700 lots, open interest was 227,200 lots, and daily position change was -15,651 lots. The price remained below the MA5 (2653.60), MA10 (2682.50), MA20 (2690.55), MA40 (2764.93), and MA60 (2773.88). The moving averages maintained a bearish alignment, and the weak pattern of futures continued. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.37) was below the DEA (-31.96), and the histogram recorded -6.81, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Trading volume remained at a certain level, but the daily position change of -15,651 lots showed a significant capital outflow. Near-term futures are likely to continue consolidating on a weak note at low levels. SMM comment: According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, the raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but due to recent large price fluctuations and market division over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with end-users mainly taking a wait-and-see approach. In-factory alumina inventory decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, where production constraints led to prioritized consumption of in-factory inventory. This effect is expected to gradually fade after the maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued building, with overseas port arrivals staying high, and imported resources supplemented spot supply, adding to market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks a clear bullish driver. Next week’s inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to a slight inventory buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decision made by clients is not associated with SMM]

SMM July 31: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,630 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.19%. Trading volume was 139,967 lots, and open interest was 247,263 lots, down 3,338 lots day on day, with funds exiting and clear signs of both bulls and bears reducing positions to realize profits. The price held above the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day MA, with short-term bearish pressure continuing to ease. After a sharp decline earlier, the price consolidated at lows for repair, and on the day it shot up then pulled back to close slightly higher, with moderate bullish buying at lows. The 5-day and 10-day MAs turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day MAs remained downward, leaving the medium-term downtrend unchanged. The 60-day MA above forms strong medium- and long-term resistance, limiting upside room, while the short-term MAs below provide solid support at lows. The DIF and DEA lines stayed below the zero axis, but bearish momentum shrank significantly, and the rebound momentum from lows continued, greatly easing overall downward pressure. SMM Commentary: Recently, the macro front improved somewhat, and the marginal constraints from rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continued to ease. China’s proportion of liquid aluminum kept rising, and the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East along with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingot provided a floor for aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the continued rollout of aluminum capacity outside China in the long term, weak end-use demand in China, together with repeated changes in expectations for US Fed rate hikes and uncertainties in the Middle East, still put some pressure on aluminum’s upside room. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract settled at 2,621 yuan/mt, down 27 yuan on the day, a decline of 1.02%. Trading volume was 185,860 lots, and open interest was 242,811 lots, down 6,081 lots MoM, with funds reducing positions and exiting. The price stayed below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs, with all MAs forming bearish pressure from top to bottom. Short-term bears continued to press, and the price hit a new low, with weak bullish buying at lows. All medium- and long-term MAs have turned from support to resistance, and the medium-term consolidation downward trend hasn’t changed. During any rebound repair phase, the price will face layered resistance from each moving average. SMM Commentary: On the supply side, weekly production was basically flat compared to the previous week, with stable operations, but the ample supply situation persisted, continuing to weigh on prices. On the inventory front, the buildup trend continued. In markets outside China, affected by geopolitical conflicts, large volumes of low-priced cargo flowed into China earlier, consuming overseas circulating inventory. Recently, the concentrated release of restocking demand from new capacity in Indonesia and production resumptions in the Middle East tightened overseas supplies from loose, driving a notable increase in ex-China alumina prices. Looking ahead, in the absence of macro bullish catalysts in China, the oversupply situation continues to pressure, and short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Additionally, expectations of production ramp-up in Guangxi will likely lead to further inventory buildup next week. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

[SMM Comment: Wafer Prices Grind Lower, Enterprises Pin Hopes on Policy] This week, wafer prices continued to fall, with N-type 183 wafers priced at 0.8-0.824 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 0.895-0.925 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers quoted at 1.099-1.125 yuan/piece.

South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has proposed expanding the country’s automotive incentive framework to include minerals used in electric-vehicle battery manufacturing, supporting deeper localisation of the domestic automotive and battery-material supply chains. Under the proposal, the existing list of eligible standard materials including aluminium, steel and platinum-group metals would be expanded to cover lithium, graphite, cobalt, copper, iron and rare earths. Eligible materials would need to originate from member states of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) or Southern African Development Community (SADC). The proposed framework would recognise 50% of the value of qualifying EV battery materials as local content, potentially improving producers’ eligibility for automotive-sector incentives. The policy aligns with the South African Automotive Master Plan 2035, which aims to increase vehicle production, local content and investment as the industry transitions toward electric mobility. Stakeholders were given four weeks from the notice date to submit comments, meaning the final scope and implementation schedule remain subject to consultation. SMM comments: The proposal represents a demand-side approach to developing Africa’s battery supply chain, contrasting with Zimbabwe’s supply side policy of restricting concentrate exports to force domestic processing. If implemented, South Africa could emerge as a regional battery material processing or manufacturing hub sourcing feedstock from neighbouring SADC producers, including Zimbabwe and Namibia. However, the near-term impact on regional lithium trade flows is likely to be limited. Major Zimbabwean lithium assets including Arcadia, Bikita and Sabi Star are controlled by Chinese companies with established China-linked processing and offtake arrangements. It also remains unclear whether spodumene concentrate would qualify directly as an eligible battery material or whether further conversion into lithium sulphate, carbonate or hydroxide would be required. The final rules should therefore be monitored alongside Zimbabwe’s planned January 2027 lithium concentrate export deadline, as the two policies could influence future investment and trade flows within Southern Africa.

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

Manono Lithium’s first CEEC certified spodumene concentrate shipment departed Mutowa Port, near Kalemie, for Kigoma, Tanzania, on July 22, marking the Democratic Republic of Congo’s first official lithium export. The multimodal route comprises road transport over approximately 440-500 km from Manono via Nyunzu to Mutowa, lake shipment aboard roughly 2,000-tonne vessels across Lake Tanganyika to Kigoma, and onward rail and/or road transport over approximately 1,250 km through Tanzania’s Central Corridor to Dar es Salaam. The cargo is expected to pass through the Malindi Terminal before ocean shipment to China. The new Tabora-Kigoma standard-gauge railway remains under construction. The shipment’s volume, grade, value, buyer and final Chinese discharge port were not disclosed. Mutowa Port is still under construction, with initial annual capacity planned at 1 million tonnes and potential expansion to 1.8 million tonnes. Manono’s planned annual spodumene concentrate output is approximately 1 million tonnes. SMM comments: The shipment confirms the technical feasibility of the Manono Mutowa Kigoma corridor but does not yet demonstrate stable, large scale export capacity. Future throughput and delivered cost competitiveness will depend on port completion, road conditions, lakevessel availability, Tanzanian inland transport capacity and coordination across multiple transshipment points.

SMM, July 30: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,625 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan, or 1.03%. Trading volume was 209,579 lots, and open interest was 250,601 lots, with a daily decrease of 3,175 lots. Capital clearly exited, with both bulls and bears reducing positions to lock in profits. The price held above the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day line. Short-term bearish pressure has significantly eased as the price continues to repair from lows following a steep decline earlier. Today the price shot up to close sharply higher, with bulls showing improving buying support at lower levels. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages remain in a downtrend, indicating that the medium-term downward trend is intact. The 60-day line above forms strong medium- and long-term resistance, capping upside room for the rebound, while the short-term moving averages below offer solid support from the lower end. The DIF and DEA lines are below the zero axis, but the gap continues to narrow, signaling greatly diminished bearish momentum and strengthening rebound momentum from lows—overall downward pressure has markedly eased. SMM Commentary: Persistent Middle East geopolitical risk premiums, coupled with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingots, have jointly underpinned aluminum prices. However, headwinds remain—overseas forward aluminum capacity continues to be added, domestic end-use demand is weak, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes keep resurfacing, and uncertainties surrounding the Middle East geopolitical situation add volatility. As a result, upside room for aluminum prices faces clear pressure, and prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term. Today, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract settled at 2,648 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan, or 1.34%. Trading volume reached 381,349 lots, and open interest was 248,892 lots, with a MoM decrease of 6,152 lots, reflecting funds reducing positions and exiting. The price settled below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, with the shorter-period averages forming bearish pressure from top to bottom. Short-term bears continued to press, sending the price sharply lower to test new lows, while bullish buying support at lows remained weak. Medium- and long-term moving averages have all shifted from support to resistance levels, and the medium-term drifting lower trend has not changed. Any rebound repair phase will face layered resistance from these moving averages. SMM Commentary: Supply side, weekly production was basically flat with the previous week, and operations were stable. But the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged and continues to weigh on prices. On the inventory front, total national alumina inventory increased by 24,000 mt WoW to 7.028 million mt, extending the inventory buildup trend. In markets outside China, earlier geopolitical conflicts brought a large influx of low-priced cargoes into China, draining overseas circulating inventory. Recently, overseas spot conditions have tightened due to concentrated restocking demand from new capacity preparations in Indonesia and production resumption and restocking in the Middle East, pushing alumina prices outside China significantly higher. Looking ahead, China lacks macro bullish catalysts, and the oversupply situation continues to pressure prices. Short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Moreover, with expectations for production ramp-up in Guangxi, inventories are likely to build further next week. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by the client are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

SMM, July 29: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,455 yuan/mt today, up 240 yuan for the day, a gain of 1.03%. Trading volume was 267,105 lots, and open interest was 253,776 lots, with an increase of 2,341 lots for the day. Minor additions to open interest entered the market, signaling a slight tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price action moved above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day moving average. Bearish pressure in the short term eased, and after a sharp decline earlier, the price has been repairing from lows. An intraday dip was met with buying, leading to a strong rally and a substantial gain for the day, with the strength of buying at the lows clearly improving. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are turning downward, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages are declining in tandem, indicating that the medium-term downtrend remains unchanged. The 60-day moving average above forms a strong medium and long-term resistance, continuously limiting room for a rebound. The short-term moving averages below provide support at the lows. The DIF and DEA lines are below the zero axis, but bearish momentum is contracting, increasing momentum for a rebound from lows, and easing overall downward pressure. SMM Commentary: Persistent geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East, combined with China's continued destocking of aluminum ingots, jointly supported aluminum prices. However, the ongoing addition of aluminum capacity outside China for the medium and long term, weak end-use demand in China, together with fluctuating expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and uncertainty from Middle East geopolitical disruptions, put notable pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. The most-traded alumina 2609 contract closed at 2,683 yuan/mt today, up 2 yuan for the day, a 0.07% gain. Trading volume reached 188,688 lots, and open interest was 255,044 lots, with open interest down 34,885 lots MoM, as funds significantly reduced positions and exited the market. The price is below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, with all-timeframe moving averages arrayed bearishly from top to bottom. A stalemate persists between bulls and bears in the short term, with the price moving sideways to edge up. Short-term bullish buying at the lows is relatively weak, as medium and long-term moving averages have all transitioned from support to resistance levels. The medium-term drift lower pattern remains unchanged, and the price's rebound repair phase will face layered resistance from all timeframe moving averages. SMM Commentary: Supply side, weekly production was basically flat compared to the previous week, operating steadily, but the loose supply pattern remained unchanged, continuously pressuring prices. Inventory side, China's total alumina inventory grew 24,000 mt MoM to 7.028 million mt, as the inventory buildup trend continued. For markets outside China, geopolitical conflicts previously led a large amount of low-priced cargo to flow into China, depleting overseas circulating inventory. Recently, stockpiling demand for newly added capacity in Indonesia and restocking needs from production resumptions in the Middle East were released in a concentrated fashion. Spot cargo outside China has shifted from loose to tight, driving a marked increase in alumina prices outside China. Looking ahead, China's domestic market lacks macro-level bullish drivers, and the oversupply pattern continues to exert pressure. Short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Additionally, expectations for production ramp-ups in Guangxi suggest that inventory will continue to build next week. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM July 28: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,220 yuan/mt today, up 45 yuan or 0.19% intraday. Trading volume was 194,176 lots, open interest was 251,435 lots, up 268 lots on the day, indicating some new positions were added. There were signs of mild long-short battle in position opening. Prices were below the 5-day MA, but held above the 10-day and 30-day MAs, and below the 60-day MA. Near-term MAs still formed a bearish arrangement. After a sharp decline earlier, prices consolidated at lows and repaired; during the day, they bottomed out and rebounded, closing slightly higher, with buying support from bulls at lows improving somewhat. The 5-day and 10-day MAs turned downward, while the 30-day and 60-day MAs also declined. The medium-term downtrend remained unchanged. The 5-day MA above served as strong near-term resistance, and rebound room continued to be constrained, but there was some near-term support at lows below. Both DIF and DEA lines were below the zero axis, and bearish momentum had not yet fully faded, so overall downward pressure persisted. SMM Commentary: Macro sentiment improved slightly recently. Ongoing geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East coupled with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingots jointly underpinned aluminum prices. However, the continued rollout of overseas aluminum capacity in the medium-to-long term, weak traditional end-use demand in China, along with recurring macro uncertainties, exerted notable pressure on the upside room of aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintained a consolidation pattern. The most-traded alumina 2609 contract closed at 2,683 yuan/mt today, down 22 yuan or 0.81% intraday. Trading volume was 208,664 lots, open interest was 289,929 lots, down 6,655 lots from the prior day, with significant outflows as positions were reduced. Prices were below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs. Moving averages across all timeframes formed a bearish alignment from top to bottom. Near-term bears continued to exert pressure, and prices drifted lower amid consolidation. Near-term bullish buying support at lows was weak. Medium and long-term MAs all turned from support into resistance levels. The medium-term drifting lower consolidation pattern remained unchanged. During any rebound repair phase, prices will continue to face layers of resistance from MAs across all timeframes. SMM Commentary: On the supply side, production during the week was basically flat compared to the previous week, and operations were steady, but the ample supply situation remained unchanged, continuing to cap prices. In terms of inventory, total alumina inventory nationwide increased by 24,000 mt WoW to 7.028 million mt, extending the inventory buildup trend. In overseas markets, due to geopolitical conflicts, low-priced cargoes had previously flowed heavily into China, depleting circulating inventory outside China. Recently, stockpiling demand for new capacity in Indonesia and restocking needs from production resumptions in the Middle East were released in a concentrated manner, tightening overseas spot supply and driving a notable increase in alumina prices outside China. Looking ahead, China lacks positive macro catalysts, and the oversupply situation continues to weigh. Short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Adding to this, Guangxi is expected to ramp up production, and inventory will likely continue to build next week. [The information provided is for reference only. It does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no relation to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).]