[SMM Brief] SHFE data showed that on April 29, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 32,624 mt, an increase of 421 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai registered 1,822 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 10,878 mt (down 30 mt), Jiangsu 4,769 mt (up 392 mt), Zhejiang 9,506 mt (up 59 mt), Chongqing 4,143 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,506 mt (unchanged).

DCE iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 786.5 yuan/mt, up 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose in tandem by 1-3 yuan/mt. Traders quoted actively, steel mills restocked on demand, and overall spot trading sentiment was moderate. According to an SMM survey, daily average hot metal production at 242 sample steel mills was 2.4494 million mt this week, up 5,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead to next week, hot metal production is expected to dip slightly and move sideways after peaking. In addition, BHP announced the conclusion of annual benchmark negotiations last night. Although some details emerged in the market today, whether port spot cargoes of restricted grades will see short-term release remains to be confirmed. Overall, the impact of this event is gradually fading, with limited effect on prices. However, given that the month-end Politburo meeting may reinforce anti-involution policy expectations, and supported by rigid restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend on the stronger side.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading today before slowly pulling back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.49% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were mediocre in offering quotations, while steel mills restocked as needed; overall transactions in the spot market were limited. Fundamentals, according to the SMM survey, port inventories began to decline slightly this week, with total inventory across 35 ports nationwide down 610,000 mt WoW to 155.78 million mt, a decrease of 0.39%. Meanwhile, port pick-up volume increased by 110,000 mt WoW to 2.855 million mt. Although support below ore prices gradually strengthened along with the pace of hot metal production resumptions, supply side still faced the risk of further increases as weather-related disruptions eased and iron ore returning from the Middle East arrived in China. Overall, upward pressure on ore prices had not yet eased significantly, and with downside support gradually strengthening, prices were expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore was generally weak today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 1.83% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders actively offered quotes, while steel mills mainly made inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand, with cautious inquiries; overall, the spot market trading atmosphere was average. According to the latest SMM survey data, hot metal daily average production reached 2.4049 million mt this week, an increase of 15,000 mt WoW, with demand showing a steady improvement. In terms of supply, some iron ore originally planned for shipment to the Middle East began to be redirected to the Chinese market, including some ore grades used for direct reduced iron (DRI), increasing market supply options and putting some pressure on prices. From a macro perspective, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and the escalation of war triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, driving up global inflationary pressure. Expectations for US dollar interest rate cuts weakened significantly, leading to a certain pullback in commodity prices, including iron ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices faced strong resistance in the short term, but downside room was limited, and the market is expected to continue moving in a sideways range.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 819 yuan/mt, up 0.92% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 1-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills purchased cautiously. At present, transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. In terms of fundamental data, the SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments reached 33.63 million mt last week, up 5.2% WoW; meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports were 27.14 million mt, down 3.5% WoW. Combined with the narrower inventory buildup in port inventory in the previous period and the increase in port pick-up volume, the oversupplied situation on the iron ore supply side improved in the short term. At the same time, demand gradually rebounded as blast furnaces resumed production one after another, and iron ore fundamentals gradually turned bullish. On the news front, as long-term contract negotiations remained deadlocked, the unilateral trend in iron ore had yet to become clear, so most funds chose to stay on the sidelines, though overall bullish sentiment remained relatively strong. Therefore, overall, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate at highs this week.

Dalian iron ore futures remained in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 807.5 yuan/mt, down 0.55% from the previous trading day. Spot prices saw limited transactions, falling by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders offered quotes in line with the market, while steel mills remained cautious and on the sidelines, with some purchasing as needed. According to the SMM survey, as of March 19, total inventory across the 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 119.62 million mt, up 630,000 mt MoM. Inventory trends diverged among mainstream products, with notable destocking in IOCJ fines and Newman fines. Inventory of Jimblebar fines also declined slightly. In addition, inventory of PB fines and Mac fines increased slightly. In the short term, improved fundamental demand for iron ore provided support to futures prices. However, close attention should be paid to tomorrow's long-term contract negotiations and the impact of the Middle East conflict, both of which could have a significant effect on iron ore prices.

[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....