[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio maintained fluctuating trend near 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio maintained a fluctuating trend near 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, tensions in the Middle East had not yet eased, increasing market uncertainty. The US dollar index pulled back, and combined with persistently low ex-China zinc inventory levels, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

Spot lithium carbonate prices showed a continuous decline and pulled back from highs this week. The futures market performed weakly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range fluctuating downward from 187,600-193,900 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 175,200-184,100 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 175,200 yuan/mt, down approximately 5.8% for the week. Open interest first increased then decreased, and market sentiment was bearish. Market transactions showed a distinct "active on declines" pattern, with downstream purchasing enthusiasm rising as prices pulled back. Upstream lithium chemical plants held strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with a widespread wait-for-rebound mentality. However, some enterprises that had hedged at earlier highs increased spot order shipments to downstream buyers. Downstream material plants saw sustained active downstream inquiries and purchases as prices continued to fall, initially focused on just-in-need restocking; as prices dropped further, purchase willingness grew increasingly strong, and restocking and stockpiling willingness gradually improved. Traders saw significant destocking due to large-scale downstream purchases. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions became more active after price declines, showing a "buy on dips, watch on rallies" pattern. Supply side, multiple changes emerged, with production slightly decreasing but longer-term supply expectations increasing. Lithium carbonate production decreased slightly this week, mainly due to spodumene production line maintenance. In terms of inventory changes, as upstream lithium chemical plants continued to increase the volume of hedging-related registered warrants, combined with increased direct sales of lithium carbonate from lithium chemical plants to downstream buyers, upstream inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. On longer-term supply, Mineral Resources Limited (MinRes) announced it would restart its wholly-owned Bald Hill lithium mine due to a significant and sustained rebound in lithium prices, with mining and crushing expected in June, first concentrates output in July, and the first shipment in Q1 FY2027. The expectation of incremental longer-term supply weighed on market sentiment. Import and export data indicated continued and growing ex-China replenishment. According to customs statistics, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to April reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY. Lithium sulfate imports in April were 17,942 mt, up 9% MoM and up 296% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to April reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY, reflecting increased processing trade activity and exerting some pressure on short-term prices. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to hover at highs. Supply side, key variables going forward include the progress of mining license renewals in Jiangxi, the pace of Zimbabwean concentrates arriving at ports, and the restart progress of the Bald Hill and Finniss lithium mines. Demand side, close attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the actual volume increase in restocking and stockpiling. Short-term lithium prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within the 180,000-190,000 yuan/mt range. It is recommended to closely monitor further changes in warrant volumes and actual progress in ore production resumptions.

This week, prices in the second-life application market remained largely stable overall, with relatively small fluctuations and a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in a relatively subdued trading pace. Cost side, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to trend lower throughout the week, and although a slight rebound occurred during the period, it failed to reverse the downward trend, with overall prices maintaining a downward trajectory. Cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices were simultaneously adjusted slightly downward, and the lithium battery raw materials market was in the doldrums overall. Supply side, major second-life enterprises maintained a stable shipment pace, with normal circulation of goods in the market, and no concentrated shipments or stockpiling by enterprises. The market currently lacks incremental supply, with raw material procurement and finished product shipments maintaining daily levels, and the overall supply landscape remained stable. Demand side, when lithium carbonate prices were previously at high levels, there was an intention in the market to raise battery cell prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased somewhat. With prices of various lithium battery raw materials continuing to trend lower recently, cost support has weakened, and market expectations for price hike have completely dissipated. Downstream procurement attitudes have turned cautious, market willingness to adjust prices is sluggish, industry quotations generally remained stable, and significant market movements are unlikely in the short term.

Second-life battery market prices remained stable this week. Cost side, spot lithium carbonate surged earlier this week before pulling back rapidly, while cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices largely traded sideways and held steady, with raw material futures showing clearly divergent trends. Supply side, the market overall maintained a regular shipments pace, with supply circulation proceeding smoothly and orderly. There were no signs of new capacity ramping up or concentrated inflows of supply, lacking significant incremental support, and the overall industry supply side remained neutral and stable. Demand side, the small power market has fully banned the use of second-life disassembled battery cells. The small power application channel that previously supported part of the demand for disassembled products was directly shut down, and there is currently no new substitute demand to fill the gap, forcing large volumes of disassembled products to be redirected to disassembly recycling channels for absorption. Although prices of disassembled products temporarily remained stable, overall transaction volume was extremely sluggish. For the Grade A and B market, earlier expectations for price hikes had emerged, driven by the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices, but downstream acceptance of high prices remained low, and no effective high-price transactions materialized. As lithium carbonate prices pulled back rapidly, expectations for price hikes quickly faded, and the overall trading pace slowed down further.

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to rise this week, driven by supply-side disruptions that continued to strengthen tighter Q2 expectations and significant position increases in far-month contracts. Nickel salt prices edged up, while the cobalt salt market remained lackluster and basically stable.

The second-life battery market maintained overall stable prices this week. Cost side, spot lithium carbonate surged significantly this week with notable gains, nickel sulphate continued its gradual rise, while cobalt sulphate traded sideways and held steady. Raw material futures showed clear divergence, with lithium carbonate leading the gains and pushing up overall lithium battery raw material costs, also laying potential support for subsequent second-life battery cell pricing. Supply side, shipments from various producers remained at a steady pace, with no significant changes in circulating supply in the market. Although lithium carbonate rose strongly after the holiday, there was a time lag in the transmission of raw material costs to the second-life battery market. Current price negotiations remained concentrated in the upstream raw material segment, and second-life battery enterprises largely maintained stable quotes without raising prices in line with raw materials. Demand side, the continued surge in lithium carbonate pushed up costs, significantly dampening downstream purchasing sentiment and restocking willingness. In addition, concentrated stockpiling had already taken place before the Labour Day holiday, and most enterprises currently held sufficient inventory to support turnover. With no plan to make just-in-time procurement in the short term, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed across the market, with transactions mostly consisting of small, as-needed orders.

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market. Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching." Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification. Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.

This week, the second-life battery cell market maintained overall price stability. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, nickel sulphate prices climbed steadily, while cobalt sulphate prices continued their weak downward trend. Overall, raw material futures showed divergent trends, but the strengthening of lithium and nickel categories would push up battery cell recycling and processing production costs. However, there was a certain time lag in the top-down transmission of raw material price changes to the battery cell market, forming strong bottom support for the market. Supply side, at the current stage, the overall supply volume of second-life and Grade A/B battery for well-known mobile phone cell markets remained stable, battery cell enterprises maintained orderly shipments pace, market circulating sources showed no significant incremental changes, and the supply side overall maintained a loose and balanced pattern without causing notable disruption to prices. Demand side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, some downstream enterprises initiated pre-holiday restocking and stockpiling activities, driving a slight recovery in rigid market demand. However, driven by the transmission of earlier high costs, second-life battery market prices had already risen last week, and the current overall price level was already in a relatively high level range. End-user terminals showed weak willingness to accept high-priced sources and remained cautious about purchasing at high prices. The demand side could hardly continue to drive prices to rise, with most participants purchasing as needed. Under the counterbalance of multiple factors, second-life battery market prices this week basically maintained a sideways and steady trend.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

This week, the second-life battery market saw overall prices edge up, with market conditions rising on cost support and demand boost. Cost side, prices of major lithium battery raw materials diverged this week. Lithium carbonate prices maintained a fluctuating yet upward trend, providing notable support to overall costs. Nickel sulphate prices edged up in tandem, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable and edged down slightly. Under the combined effect of various raw materials, the cost side of second-life battery cells overall stayed high. Supply side, shipment pace of second-life battery cells as well as Grade A and Grade B battery cells for well-known mobile phones from battery cell manufacturers remained largely stable. The volume of goods circulating in the market showed no significant increase or decrease, and the supply side maintained an overall stable trend without causing notable disruption to market prices. Demand side, as lithium, cobalt, nickel and other salt products continued to fluctuate at highs over the long term, elevated costs provided strong support to second-life battery market prices, thereby driving overall market prices to edge up recently. Among them, high-demand battery cells in the ESS sector saw more significant price increases. Prices of mainstream ESS-grade battery cells such as Grade A 314Ah and 280Ah models continued to rise, with current price levels gradually approaching those of brand-new battery cells.