[SMM Daily Review: Sharp Drop in Nickel Prices Dragged Down Market Confidence, High-Grade NPI Price Center Pulled Back] March 19 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.07 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, up 0.02 MoM.

The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on GFEX closed at 527.25 yuan/g, down 3.96. Spot side, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 2 yuan/g to parity against the SGE sell-1 price, with spot discounts continuing to narrow slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, SMM learned that some cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes and reported relatively many inquiries. Downstream buyers negotiated purchases on price dips, while some enterprises said they had no plans for large-scale stockpiling for the time being due to the market's overall fear of further declines. Overall transactions in the spot market improved.

HRC futures retreated after a rapid rise today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,313, up 0.21 for the day. In the spot market, prices in most major markets were generally stable with slight fall. Trading was moderate in the morning session, then weakened afterward. In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, production resumed in north China, and the impact from hot-rolled maintenance declined. The impact from hot-rolled maintenance was 314,900 mt this week, down 99,000 mt WoW. The impact from hot-rolled maintenance next week will be 8.06 mt, down 234,300 mt from this week, and pressure on hot-rolled supply gradually rebounded. On the demand side, end-users resumed normal procurement after the holiday, gradually increasing to seasonal levels. On the raw ....

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, after the Two Sessions concluded, operating rates at coke producers increased somewhat, and shipments improved. Inventory pressure eased for most coke producers, with supply remaining stable while increasing slightly. Demand side, blast furnaces in Hebei resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments picked up, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm and strengthening their purchase willingness for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals improved, but the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. In early trading, the most-traded PT2606 platinum contract on GFEX closed at 546 yuan/g, down 1.54. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 9-11 yuan/g against PT2606, or at premiums of 1-3 yuan/g against SGE sell 1, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that some cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes and reported poor trading in early morning trade, with quotes at a 10 yuan/g discount against GFEX proving difficult to conclude. Later, as futures moved lower, transactions recovered, downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and overall trading in the spot market was normal.

Silver prices remained in the doldrums today. After the spot-futures price spread narrowed, premiums in the spot market continued to decline. In the Shanghai market, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots in the morning session were adjusted down to a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, but downstream consumption remained sluggish. As rigid demand for raw materials decreased, some suppliers lowered premiums to sell off cargoes and close deals. Although some smelters were reluctant to sell, quoting silver ingots at a premium of 150 yuan/kg against the 2606 contract or a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, actual transactions were scarce. In the Shenzhen market, non-standard registered brand silver ingots were sold off at parity or slight discounts against TD. Downstream buyers made substantial counteroffers and remained cautious on the sidelines. Spot cargoes circulating in the market were ample, and overall market transactions turned weaker.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

SMM News, March 19: Total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined further this week, falling from 998,100 mt on March 12, 2026 to 979,300 mt on March 19, down 1.88% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory extended its decline this week, with inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan continuing to pull back WoW. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," ongoing geopolitical conflicts continued to disrupt the market this week, while SS futures weakened and came under pressure, leading to a clear lack of market confidence. Overall transactions during the week were weaker than last week; even though the demand-side recovery fell short of expectations, downstream end-users still maintained a just-in-time procurement pace. Supply side, stainless steel mills faced the dual pressure of elevated production schedules and high inventory, and their willingness to ship stayed high; during the week, a major mainstream mill lowered its guidance price, directly boosting market transactions and becoming the core driver behind the slight pullback in inventory. Sentiment in both the spot market and futures was subdued. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts and limited upside in raw material prices, the market's earlier bullish sentiment completely faded, while downstream buyers only maintained just-in-time procurement with no willingness to stockpile, further constraining restocking room. Overall, this week's modest inventory drawdown mainly relied on active shipments by steel mills and support from just-in-time transactions. Current social inventory remained at a high level, and with March production schedule expectations still relatively high, pressure on inventory drawdown remained prominent. Although inventory posted consecutive declines in the short term, constrained by weak market confidence and the absence of downstream stockpiling demand, inventory is unlikely to see a substantial drawdown. Whether inventory can continue to decline steadily will still depend on close monitoring of how the geopolitical situation evolves and the pace of actual downstream demand release.

On March 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

[SMM Daily Review: Weak End-User Demand and Fear of High Prices Weighed on the Market, with High-Grade NPI Prices Under Pressure in the Short Term] March 17 News: SMM's upstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI was 2.85, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment indicator for high-grade NPI was 1.6, down 0.03 MoM.