SMM Nickel News, April 17: Macro and market news: (1) On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference in the "Getting Started on the 15th Five-Year Plan" series, introducing the promotion of high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The NDRC stated it would focus on expanding effective domestic demand and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy to expand domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. (2) Trump said Lebanon and Israel agreed to a 10-day ceasefire; the Israeli PM agreed to the ceasefire and said troops would remain stationed in southern Lebanon; the Lebanese PM welcomed Trump's ceasefire announcement. Spot market: On April 17, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,350 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -700-600 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged sharply in the morning session, touching 145,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 143,730 yuan/mt, up 1.54%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

SMM Nickel News, April 15: Macro and Market News: (1) The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. The confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is scheduled for April 21. (2) Trump said talks with Iran would "possibly within the next two days" be held in Pakistan. Sources said Pakistan called for a 45-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, and the US and Iran agreed to continue negotiations, though the time and location remain undetermined. Spot Market: On April 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 3,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -500-600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued its sharp upward trend during the morning session, closing at 141,500 yuan/mt, up 2.58%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed the implementation of the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula starting April 15, 2026, which is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual cost increase after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

On April 15, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,750 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China's mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500-600 yuan/mt.

On April 14, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -500–600 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 14: Macro and Market News: (1) Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that China's total goods trade import and export value in Q1 2026 reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, with the YoY growth rate maintaining double-digit growth at 15%. (2) According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in Q1 2026 was 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan in Q1. Spot Market: On April 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged significantly today, rising over 3% at one point during the morning session, and closed the morning session at 137,810 yuan/mt, up 2.67%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed that the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula will take effect from April 15, 2026. This is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual extent of cost increases after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

SMM Nickel News, April 13: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: A blockade will be imposed on all ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, ships paying transit fees to Iran in international waters will be intercepted, and Iranian mines laid in the strait will be cleared. Apart from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran have "reached agreement on most issues." (2) According to US officials and informed sources, President Trump and his advisors are considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to break the deadlock in peace negotiations. Spot market: On April 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 134,000 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt range, supported below by cost underpinning from rising ore and sulfur prices, and capped above by high global inventory (LME inventory above 280,000 mt, continued social inventory buildup in China) and sluggish downstream demand recovery.

Nickel market remained in the doldrums this week. On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, both SHFE and LME nickel opened low and trended lower, with a lack of market drivers. Combined with the Strait of Hormuz blockade triggering broad pressure on risk assets, nickel prices were clearly in the doldrums. However, mid-week, the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire sharply boosted risk appetite, the US dollar index came under significant pressure, and nickel prices rebounded notably alongside improved sentiment across the non-ferrous sector in and outside China. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 135,363 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums continued to weaken, with the weekly average at 3,500 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Trading of imported cargoes and domestic electrodeposited nickel was overall sluggish, spot premiums declined in tandem, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited willingness to restock. On the macro front, on April 7, US President Trump announced that if Iran agreed to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, the US would agree to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council promptly accepted the ceasefire proposal. However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remained in doubt, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again on April 8. Geopolitical risks were not fully resolved, and market sentiment may continue to swing wildly as the situation fluctuates. US March non-farm payrolls data rebounded beyond expectations, hitting a high of over a year. After the data release, market bets on US Fed interest rate cuts cooled notably. The minutes of the US Fed's March FOMC meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed progress on inflation pullback could be slower than expected, and the rate cut path had already narrowed significantly before the ceasefire. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 200 mt WoW. Currently, nickel prices are caught between geopolitical risk fluctuations and weak fundamentals. In the short term, the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 10: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the NBS showed that in March, consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down 0.7% MoM and up 1.0% YoY. (2) Sources said that Iran had informed Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations, that the Iranian delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. Previously, on April 9, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Khatibzadeh said the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for negotiations. Spot market: On April 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 133,210 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 9: Macro and Market News: (1) On April 8 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that any country providing military weapons to Iran would face "immediate 50% tariffs" on "any and all goods" sold to the US, adding that the measure would "take effect immediately" with "no exclusions or exemptions." (2) US Fed March meeting minutes: more officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. The Fed's mouthpiece noted that the ceasefire made it harder for the Fed to decide. Spot Market: On April 9, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract opened higher today but then fluctuated downward, closing at 133,000 yuan/mt, down 0.02%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to operate in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel News, April 8: Macro and market news: (1) US President Trump posted on social media on April 7, stating: "I have agreed to a pause on the bombing and strikes on Iran for a period of two weeks." Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early hours of April 8 local time, saying that based on the Supreme Leader's recommendation and the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan. (2) Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree to promulgate the "Regulations of the State Council on Industry Chain and Supply Chain Security," effective from the date of promulgation. The Regulations aim to prevent industry chain and supply chain security risks, enhance the resilience and security of industry chains and supply chains, and safeguard economic and social stability as well as national security. Spot market: On April 8, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,600 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract rose in the early session before trading in a range, closing the morning session at 134,250 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.