[Destocking Logic Continues to Materialize, Macro Pressure Caps Aluminum Price Upside] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end‑June/early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively evident, and with the current bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, domestic aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate in consolidation in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,813/mt. At the open, copper prices showed wild swings, dipping to $13,776.5/mt during the session. Then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt. In early trading, it hit a high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then the price center dipped to 105,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 122,000 lots, down 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

In H1 2026, the Indonesian 10-12% high-grade NPI (delivered to port, tax inclusive) market trended steadily upward, with the SMM average price rising 12% compared to the same period in 2025. Price movements were characterized by “stepwise increases and fluctuations at highs.” Each round of supply-demand imbalance and policy disruption pushed prices onto a higher level.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] On the Middle East front, the US and Iranian presidents signed an electronic memorandum of understanding, with the official 14-point text largely matching media reports. A formal signing is set for Friday in Switzerland. Trump warned of resuming bombing if unsatisfied with the MOU and discussed strikes on Hezbollah with Syrian leadership. Southern Lebanon came under multiple Israeli attacks, with Israel's finance minister stating no withdrawal on Friday or thereafter.

[SMM Imported Copper Concentrates] According to foreign media reports, starting from 9:00 AM local time on June 17, transportation at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia was hindered as protesters blocked a critical transport route from the mine to the Chinese border, preventing the normal dispatch of copper concentrate trucks. Oyu Tolgoi is 66% owned by Rio Tinto and 34% by the Mongolian government, with Rio Tinto overseeing operations. The Oyu Tolgoi side stated that this hindered transportation may pose contract fulfillment risks and affect Mongolia's national budget.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] The Fed's hawkish resolution pushed market pricing for a rate hike by year-end up 17 basis points to 38 basis points.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in June, with a significantly shortened statement removing language hinting at further rate cuts. The dot plot showed nine officials expect a rate hike this year, while new Chair Warsh did not submit a dot plot and declined to provide forward guidance, announcing the formation of working groups to reform the Fed and adjust its communication approach, including post-meeting press conferences and the dot plot. He also stated there is no reason to revisit the 2% inflation target before it is achieved.

[Molybdenum Express] SMM, June 18 – Tiangong International issued a June price adjustment letter for high-speed steel: Affected by the continuous rise in prices of alloy raw materials such as ferrotungsten and ferromolybdenum, as well as steel scrap, the enterprise issued a price adjustment notice: Effective from 00:00 on June 17, 2026, prices for all newly signed spot and contract orders would be uniformly raised. For all specifications, the base price of high-speed steel grades containing 1% molybdenum (Mo) would be raised by 500 yuan per mt. This price adjustment aims to stabilize raw material supply.

[SMM Tin Morning Report: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Sideways in the Night Session, Spot Market Trading Atmosphere Was Quiet]

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: Bears Cut Positions, LME Zinc Rebounds from Lows]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,560/mt, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, dipping to $3,555.5/mt in early trading and touching a high of $3,618/mt. It then maintained a fluctuating trend at high levels, finally closing up at $3,611.5/mt, up $50/mt, or 1.4%. Trading volume increased to 11,957 lots...