Search results for SHFE tin prices

On December 25, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2602 opened lower in the morning session and remained under pressure, ultimately closing at 335,880 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 1.18%. Futures experienced sharp fluctuations during the day, hitting a high of 341,200 yuan/mt and a low of 328,270 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 298,226 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,797 lots to 53,243 lots, indicating that some bulls chose to exit. Overseas, although the LME was closed for the Christmas holiday, LME tin fell 0.81% overnight to $42,490/mt, and the inventory rebound further eased supply concerns. In terms of driving factors, today's decline in tin prices was mainly due to the combined impact of three pressures. First, macro front liquidity tightened as the Christmas holiday led to sluggish overseas trading; the suspension of Hong Kong stock market trading halted northbound capital flows, leaving the domestic market without external guidance. Year-end institutional position adjustments and profit-taking intentions intensified, with funds shifting from previously high-gaining varieties to defensive sectors. Second, demand side remained persistently weak, with orders in the traditional consumer electronics sector sluggish; solder enterprises only purchased as needed, and high prices significantly dampened restocking willingness. Incremental demand from emerging sectors like PV and AI servers was not enough to offset the decline in traditional areas. Third, industrial policy guidance prompted a rational return; the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), together with the solder branch, recently called for resisting speculative behavior, as high prices had triggered negative feedback from downstream enterprises, who were "afraid to accept orders." Short-term outlook: the daily candlestick of the most-traded SHFE tin contract formed a large bearish candle, breaking below the key support level of 335,000 yuan/mt. The next support level is expected around 325,000 yuan/mt, and the short-term trend may continue with a resistant decline. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrowed range of 330,000-340,000 yuan/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar and whether downstream stockpiling demand before the Chinese New Year can trigger a staged rebound.

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 25, 2025: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) fluctuated downward during the night session, once falling below the 330,000 yuan mark. After a slight rebound towards the close, it settled at 332,520 yuan/mt, down 2.17% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) The US government announced on the 23rd that it will impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, concluding the trade investigation into Chinese chips initiated by the previous Biden administration. US media analysis suggests that, although the US government claims China's practices in the chip industry "harm US interests," the final decision is to refrain from imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. Bloomberg reported that the postponement of new tariffs is the latest signal that the US government is seeking to consolidate the US-China "truce" agreement and stabilize bilateral relations. (2) Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that from December 1 to 21, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, up 1% YoY and 3% MoM, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 12.26 million units, up 18% YoY. Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by manufacturers from December 1 to 21 were 782,000 units, down 10% YoY and 12% MoM, with a penetration rate of 60.1%. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year totaled 14.538 million units, up 25% YoY. Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Spot Market: Spot market transactions remained mediocre yesterday. Most traders reported that daily transactions were mostly in the range of 10-20 mt. However, trading was relatively active during the night session, as the price decline stimulated procurement interest among downstream enterprises. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this information to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

December 23, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) maintained a fluctuating rangebound trend during the night session, trading around the 340,000-yuan mark, and closed at 339,850 yuan/mt, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) Nvidia collaborated with South Korea's SK Hynix to develop a new-type AI solid-state drive, with Taiwan's Phison Electronics also participating in the development. The performance of AI-specific solid-state drives is expected to be 10 times higher than that of SSDs currently installed in AI servers. Phison Electronics stated that the adoption of NAND flash memory in AI servers is a clear and absolute trend. (2) It is understood that the heads of Wingtech Technology and Nexperia Netherlands held their first round of negotiations last week, explaining and clarifying issues of mutual concern, and agreed to maintain communication. China called on the relevant enterprises to negotiate on issues of control and restoring the supply chain, and to effectively restore the global semiconductor production and supply chain. We reiterate that the root cause of the Nexperia issue lies in the inappropriate administrative intervention by the Dutch government in business operations. As an old Chinese saying goes, "It is better for the doer to undo what he has done." To completely eliminate the concerns of global related enterprises about chip shortages, the Dutch government should immediately revoke the administrative order, promote the withdrawal of the lawsuit by former executives of Nexperia Netherlands from the enterprise court, create favorable conditions for corporate negotiations, resume chip supply to Chinese and foreign automakers in China as soon as possible, and fulfill the Netherlands' due obligations to restore the security and stability of the global semiconductor production and supply chain. Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Spot market: Trading in the spot market remained relatively mediocre yesterday. A slight intraday decline stimulated some restocking or just-in-time procurement by downstream and end-user enterprises to a certain extent, but the overall absolute price still kept most downstream and end-user enterprises in a wait-and-see mode. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 22, 2025: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher during the night session, fluctuated, and pulled back after breaking through the 340,000 mark, closing at 340,100 yuan/mt, up 0.37% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission website, Xinhe Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. and its sponsoring broker CITIC Securities submitted a completion report of the counseling work to the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau. After counseling, CITIC Securities believes that the counseled object has established the corporate governance structure, accounting foundation, and internal control system required for a publicly listed firm, and fully understands the characteristics and attributes of various tiers in the multi-level capital market; the counseled object and its directors, senior managers, shareholders holding more than 5% of shares, and actual controllers have comprehensively mastered laws, regulations, and rules related to issuance, listing, and standardized operations, are aware of their responsibilities and obligations regarding information disclosure and fulfillment of commitments, and have developed a sense of integrity, self-discipline, and rule of law for entering the securities market. (2) It was learned from Shanghai Jiao Tong University that the university's researchers recently made a breakthrough in the field of next-generation optical computing chips, achieving for the first time an all-optical computing chip that supports large-scale semantic media generation models. The related results were published in the journal Science on December 19. "So-called optical computing can be understood as allowing light to propagate within the chip instead of electrons running in transistors, using changes in the optical field to complete computations. Light inherently possesses advantages of high speed and parallelism, thus regarded as an important direction to break through the bottlenecks of computing power and energy consumption," said Chen Yitong, the paper's author and assistant professor at the School of Integrated Circuits of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, adding that applying optical computing to generative AI is not straightforward, as existing all-optical computing chips are mainly limited to small-scale classification tasks, and optoelectronic cascading or multiplexing would severely weaken the speed of optical computing. Enabling next-generation optical computing chips to run complex generative models is a globally recognized challenge in the field of intelligent computing. Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Spot market: High prices significantly suppress demand: Demand in traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances continues to be weak. Despite significant price fluctuations, trading activity in the spot market remains relatively sluggish, characterized by "price without market." Faced with high tin prices, the purchase willingness of downstream enterprises is generally suppressed. Apart from necessary rigid demand, most companies choose to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with few actual procurement activities. Even when prices fall and trading recovers somewhat, overall social inventory continues to show a buildup trend. [Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

December 18, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session and continued to surge, pulling back slightly during the session, and closed at 334,240 yuan/mt, up 2.84% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) Sources revealed that Google (GOOG.O) is advancing a new plan to enhance the performance of its AI chips when running PyTorch, the world's most commonly used AI software framework, aiming to weaken Nvidia's (NVDA.O) long-term dominance in the AI computing market. Sources stated that the new plan, internally codenamed "TorchTPU," is designed to eliminate key obstacles hindering the popularization of TPU chips, making them fully compatible with PyTorch and providing a more developer-friendly experience for customers who have already built systems using PyTorch. Some sources indicated that Google is also considering open-sourcing part of the software to accelerate customer adoption. PyTorch, an open-source project strongly supported by Meta Platforms (META.O), is one of the most commonly used tools for developing AI models. (2) Chip startup Mythic Inc. raised $125 million in a new round of funding, which will be used to support the company's challenge to Nvidia (NVDA.O) in the lucrative artificial intelligence processor market. A statement on Wednesday showed that Mythic hired Nvidia veteran Taner Ozcelik as CEO last year, and this funding round was led by venture capital firm DCVC. Other investors include SoftBank Group and Honda Motor Co., among others. The company adopts a completely new approach to handling the massive amounts of data required to run artificial intelligence software. Its technology relies on analog chips, which consume significantly less power than the digital components typically used as the "brains" of computers. Ozcelik, who worked at Nvidia for a decade and whose career was deeply influenced by Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang, said, "We have made it clear that our goal is to catch up with Nvidia." Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters' production is expected to be relatively stable in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Spot market: Trading in the spot market was relatively sluggish yesterday, with most traders reporting transactions of only around ten mt, and a few traders reporting transactions of about one truckload. After restocking at the beginning of the week, downstream and end-user enterprises have temporarily replenished their inventory and are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the current market and prices. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use it to replace their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.

On the afternoon of December 17, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract, sn2601, rebounded after the previous day's sharp decline, closing at 327,610 yuan/mt at midday, up 4,600 points or approximately 1.42% from the previous day's settlement price. In the international market, LME tin futures closed at $41,515/mt as of December 17, up $560. The tightening spot liquidity in the London market persisted, indicating that tight spot supply continued to support LME prices. Fundamentally, the ore supply tightness has not fundamentally changed. Although Indonesia's refined tin exports surged 182% MoM to 7,458.64 mt in November, hitting a nearly two-year monthly high, the country's crackdown on illegal mines continues, leaving future output and exports uncertain. In the short term, SHFE tin found psychological support at the 320,000 yuan key level, while facing technical resistance in the 326,000-328,000 yuan range. The afternoon session will focus on whether open interest shifts from decline to increase and whether spot trading volume follows up. If the ore supply tightness narrative regains traction or macro sentiment further recovers, tin prices may test higher resistance; otherwise, they could hit bottom again or enter a consolidation phase after the rebound.

December 17, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session and hovered at highs, closing at 323,220 yuan/mt, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) After months of pressure from the auto industry, the EU abandoned an effective ban on internal combustion engines and offered carmakers greater flexibility in the transition to clean transport. This move indicates that the promotion of electric vehicles in Europe will slow down, bringing the region more in line with the US, where President Trump is rolling back automotive fuel efficiency standards set by the previous administration. Under the new proposal, the EU will relax the requirement to ban sales of new petrol and diesel-fueled cars from 2035. By the mid-next decade, tailpipe emissions must be reduced by 90%, compared to the current target of 100%. The European Commission stated on Tuesday that the revision will allow carmakers to continue selling some vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines, as well as plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). The EU set a condition that automakers must compensate for additional pollution by using low-carbon or renewable fuels, or by using locally produced green steel. (2) Changan Auto stated in a specific object survey that its Deepal car model received approval on December 15 for an intelligent connected vehicle product entry permit equipped with L3 autonomous driving functionality, enabling autonomous driving in single lanes on highways and urban expressways under traffic congestion conditions (maximum speed 50 km/h). Regarding the subsequent commercialization plan for L3, the company expects to conduct pilot road applications with the user entity Changan Che Lian Technology in Q1 2026. After the official release and implementation of relevant national regulations and policies, Changan Auto will begin product entry and market launch for end users. The company has a complete L3 plan, with Avatr, Deepal, and Qiyuan gradually launching corresponding car models. As the scale of L3 expands, it is expected to be available in models priced around 150,000 yuan in the future. (3) OECD Secretary General Cormann stated that the artificial intelligence investment boom driving global economic growth is expected to continue and yield longer-term benefits. The organization raised growth forecasts earlier this month for several major economies, including the US, noting that technology spending has provided support amid trade uncertainties. Cormann said, "We expect investment levels in the AI field to continue growing for some time. In the medium and long term, we anticipate that the accelerated popularization and application of AI in the economy will have a significant positive impact on productivity growth."However, Coleman stated that the OECD expects the global economic growth rate to slow down from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% next year, and trade headwinds may intensify. He said, "We do see quite a number of downside risks. The impact of tariffs has not yet fully materialized, trade uncertainty persists, and there is also a range of other structural pressures." Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major producing regions such as Yunnan. In December, most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although AI computing power improvements and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors. Spot market: Trading in the spot market was relatively active yesterday, as prices once fell below the 320,000 yuan threshold. Some downstream and end-users began scheduling orders and simultaneously purchasing spot tin ingots, with a few enterprises also conducting some restocking. Most traders reported transactions of one truckload or more, while some reported volumes in the range of 2–3 truckloads. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

December 16, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated downward, closing at 324,850 yuan/mt, down 1.88% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA.O) released a series of new open-source AI models, stating these models will be faster, cheaper, and smarter than its previous products. Nvidia is primarily known for providing chips used by companies like OpenAI to train their proprietary models and profit from them. However, Nvidia also offers a significant number of its own models, covering areas from physics simulation to autonomous vehicles. These models are provided as open-source software for researchers or other companies to use; for example, companies like Palantir Technologies have integrated Nvidia's models into their products. Nvidia announced the third-generation "Nemotron" large language model on Monday, mainly targeting tasks such as writing and programming. The smallest model, Nemotron 3 Nano, was released that day, with two larger versions expected to launch in H1 2026. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Meta Platforms (META.O) is considering a shift to proprietary models, making Nvidia one of the primary providers of open-source models in the US. (2) Jingjia Micro announced that the edge-side AI SoC chip CH37 series, independently developed by its controlling subsidiary Wuxi Chengheng Microelectronics Co., Ltd., has successfully completed key stages including tape-out, packaging, chip return, and power-on. After power-on, tests confirmed that its basic functions and core performance indicators (including computing efficiency, module coordination, and stability) have met the design requirements, marking a phased breakthrough for the project. Subsequently, Chengheng Micro will accelerate efforts in chip power optimization and comprehensive performance testing to ensure the product meets mass production conditions as soon as possible. (3) According to sources familiar with the plans, Ford Motor (F.N) is planning to repurpose an EV battery plant in Kentucky to produce battery cells for power grid energy storage, in response to a sharp decline in US EV sales and to utilize idle EV manufacturing capacity. Last week, Ford ended its joint venture with South Korean battery manufacturer SK On and subsequently took over two battery plants in Glendale, Kentucky. Sources stated that only one of the plants is currently operational, and Ford will shift its output to grid-scale energy storage batteries. The plant previously supplied batteries for Ford's electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, but production of the F-150 Lightning has been suspended since a fire at a key supplier in September. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major production areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors. Spot market: During yesterday's daytime session, SHFE tin fluctuated around 326,000 yuan/mt, with a small number of downstream and end-user enterprises conducting just-in-time procurement. However, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude. Subsequently, the night session's downward fluctuations provided limited stimulus to market transactions, with only some enterprises placing low-priced orders. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

December 15, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) pulled back after a slight rise during the night session, falling below the 330,000 yuan mark to close at 329,400 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) According to a December 13 report by China Times News Network, US Commerce Secretary Luttig stated in an interview with US media on the 11th that the Trump administration is expected to push TSMC to invest over $200 billion in building a plant in the US, potentially creating 30,000 jobs. TSMC responded that relevant information should be based on official announcements and declined to comment. (2) Data released on the 14th by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT showed that the country's ICT product export value in November surged 24.3% YoY to $25.45 billion, setting a new monthly record. This marks the 10th consecutive month of YoY growth in ICT exports, attributed to factors such as a booming semiconductor industry and a clear recovery in ICT equipment demand. By item, export value increased YoY for semiconductors (38.6%), mobile phones (3.5%), communication equipment (3.3%), and computers and peripheral equipment (1.9%), while displays decreased 3.7% YoY. Specifically, semiconductor export value jumped 38.6% YoY to $17.27 billion, hitting a new monthly high and boosting overall ICT exports. This is the fourth time this year, after June, August, and September, that semiconductor exports have set a new monthly record. (3) According to Southern Plus, the "AIR Pearl River Index Report (2025)" released at the opening of the 2025 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area AI and Robotics Industry Conference on December 13 indicated that Guangdong province leads the nation in four core indicators of its AI and robotics industry: enterprise strength, development potential, industry application, and industry chain linkage. The report places Guangdong's AI and robotics industry in the top tier alongside Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with its comprehensive ranking firmly holding the national top spot. Leading all four core metrics underscores its role as the country's core engine for the intelligent industry. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution remains too small to offset the decline in traditional sectors. Spot Market: Last week, SHFE tin futures fluctuated at highs, while spot tin ingot trading was sluggish amid elevated prices, leaving buyers and sellers in a stalemate. Early in the week, SHFE tin extended its prior strength. The market focused on the US Fed’s December meeting and expected an interest rate cut. The week’s climax came on 12 December, when SHFE tin surged on multiple tailwinds including the Fed’s rate cut and a weaker US dollar. The most-traded contract briefly jumped 6% intraday, touching 338,800 yuan/mt before closing up more than 4%, decisively breaking the 330,000 yuan/mt resistance. Overall, after a brief early-week consolidation, tin prices rallied sharply into the weekend on combined macro and supply-side positives, underscoring strong momentum. In contrast to the futures swings, the spot market was more sluggish. High prices significantly curbed downstream purchase willingness, and spot trading was mediocre. Smelters held offers pending sale due to costs, while downstream enterprises turned cautious, suppressing actual buying; trade consisted mainly of small, rigid-demand lots, leaving overall turnover cold. Domestic social inventory of tin ingot increased noticeably, reflecting weak demand and capping further upside room for prices. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived by SMM from public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct recommendations for investment or research decisions; clients should exercise caution and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decision made by a client is not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]

At the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract settled at 288,950 yuan/mt, down 990 yuan from the previous day. Although SHFE tin rebounded slightly during the night session, it came under pressure and pulled back after the daytime opening, hitting a session high of 291,820 yuan/mt and a low of 288,480 yuan/mt. However, during today's Asian trading hours, the US dollar index held firmly above the 99.5 mark, and with the market awaiting delayed US economic data, LME tin maintained a fluctuating downward trend. From a macro perspective, tin prices have recently been influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Hawkish signals from US Fed officials reiterating the need for cautious policy adjustments have cooled expectations for a December interest rate cut, while a stronger US dollar has put pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Meanwhile, after the US government shutdown ended, the release of a series of delayed economic data increased market uncertainty, prompting some bulls to take profits. Domestically, reasonably ample liquidity provided some support for tin prices, but end-use consumption showed a divergence characterized by "traditional sectors under pressure, emerging sectors providing a floor," with weak orders in traditional consumer electronics contrasting sharply with growing demand from emerging sectors such as AI servers and NEVs. In the afternoon session, the market will focus on changes in macro sentiment and spot transaction activity. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate around the 290,000 yuan/mt level, with short-term support seen near 285,000 yuan. Although macro front pressures limit the room for a tin price rebound, rigid supply contraction and low inventory levels will continue to provide important support for prices.

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes November 17, 2025 Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets overall showed a fluctuating trend at highs. Driven by both tight supply and recovering macro sentiment, the most-traded SHFE tin contract once hit a new stage high, reaching a peak of 298,500 yuan/mt. Macro perspective, the potential end of the US government shutdown crisis and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts boosted market risk appetite, but concerns over US-China trade policies and a global economic growth slowdown still constrained upside room. On the supply and demand fundamentals, supply disruptions persisted, with tin ore supply tightening in major producing areas like Yunnan; Indonesia's refined tin exports in October fell significantly by 53.89% YoY, exacerbating market concerns about global supply tightness. Demand side, performance was divergent: demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets remained sluggish, orders decreased noticeably, downstream purchasing was relatively cautious, and high prices suppressed actual consumption. Although emerging sectors such as AI computing power increases and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, the scale of contribution was still small, insufficient to offset the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors. The spot market saw overall sluggish trading last week, with downstream enterprises mostly adopting a strategy of purchasing as needed and placing small, quick-turnaround orders. The SHFE tin price is expected to hover at highs in the short term, and investors need to closely monitor the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, substantive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations, and further guidance on the US Fed's policy path.

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 11, 2025: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session before pulling back slightly, closing at 286,690 yuan/mt, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) The Institute of Semiconductors of the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced that researcher You Jingbi's team made significant progress in perovskite solar cells, developing a prototype with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 27.2% and significantly improving its operational stability, laying a key foundation for the industrialisation of perovskite solar cells. The related research results were published online in the journal Science. (2) The MIIT issued a notice on the management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits for passenger vehicle enterprises for 2026–2027, setting NEV credit ratio requirements at 48% for 2026 and 58% for 2027. For domestic passenger vehicle producers with annual production below 2,000 units that maintain independent production, R&D, and operations, and for imported passenger vehicle supply enterprises authorized by overseas passenger vehicle producers with imports below 2,000 units, if their average fuel consumption decreases by more than 4% year-on-year, their compliance value will be relaxed by 60% based on the requirements in GB 27999; if the decrease is more than 2% but less than 4%, the compliance value will be relaxed by 30%. (3) Foreign media reported that the world's two largest data center developers have projects near Nvidia's headquarters but may remain vacant for years as local utilities are not ready to supply power. In Santa Clara, California, home to the world's largest AI chip supplier, Digital Realty Trust applied to build a data center in 2019. About six years later, the development remains a shell, awaiting full power connection. A nearby 48 MW project by Stack Infrastructure also sits vacant, while the municipal utility Silicon Valley Power is struggling to upgrade its capacity. The fate of these two facilities highlights a major challenge facing the US tech sector and the broader economy: demand for data centers, driven by the cloud computing and AI boom, has never been higher, but power access is becoming the biggest constraint, mainly due to aging power infrastructure, slow construction of new power transmission lines, and various regulatory and permitting obstacles. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, but most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption. Spot market: Market performance remained mediocre, with downstream enterprises showing weak purchasing sentiment. Order situations in East China and South China were poor. As prices fluctuated upward, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, leading to a temporary halt in downstream enterprises' purchasing and restocking operations. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

November 10, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-level consolidation, closing at 284,760 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.4% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) According to Nikkei, Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to include tax cuts to promote investment in 17 key industries such as artificial intelligence and chips, including shipbuilding, aerospace, and national defense, and will compile a multi-year budget to enhance policy predictability. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to outline the framework of the stimulus plan at a government panel meeting of the New Economic Strategy Headquarters on Monday. This will be her first major economic initiative since taking office. Sources said in October that Japan's plan is expected to exceed last year's scale of $92 billion and will revolve around three pillars: coping with inflation, investing in growth industries, and national security. The Japanese government is considering introducing a new tax system that allows companies to deduct part of their capital expenditure from corporate taxes. This plan marks a shift in policy direction, moving from the previous focus on small and medium-sized enterprises to a new framework applicable to companies regardless of size. (2) Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said on Saturday that Nvidia's business is growing strongly, and demand for its most advanced Blackwell chips is "very strong." "Nvidia makes GPUs, but we also make CPUs, networking, and switches, so many chips are related to Blackwell," Huang told reporters at an event held by Nvidia's long-term partner TSMC in Hsinchu. TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said Huang came "to ask for wafers," but the quantity is confidential. (3) The white paper "China's Actions on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" released by the State Council Information Office on the 8th pointed out that China is vigorously developing low-carbon transportation equipment, continuously optimizing the transportation structure, and accelerating the formation of a safe, convenient, efficient, green, and economical modern comprehensive transportation system. China has accelerated the promotion of NEVs, achieving the fastest and largest-scale NEV promotion and application globally; railway electrification levels are world-leading; promoted the use of clean power for ships and aircraft; advanced the use of shore power for key regions, routes, and ships in port; and the electrification level of civil aviation airports leads the world. At the same time, China's transportation structure continues to be adjusted and optimized, and green transportation infrastructure is constantly upgraded. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is generally tightening, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, and high prices significantly suppressed actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors. Spot market: Market performance was relatively mediocre. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, as downstream enterprises' purchase willingness was dampened by high tin prices, leading them to primarily purchase as needed. Traditional consumption sectors, such as home appliances and tinplate, are currently in the off-season; meanwhile, growth in emerging demand areas like PV welding strips is not enough to fully counteract the overall weakness in tin consumption. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference purposes. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 7, 2025: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) rose slightly during the night session before pulling back and fluctuating, closing at 28,310 yuan/mt, up 0.11% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) Google is launching its most powerful chip to date, aiming to win business from AI companies by offering custom silicon. The company stated on Thursday that the seventh-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), named "Ironwood," will be released to the public market in the coming weeks, following its initial release for testing and deployment in April this year. This self-developed chip will be used for tasks such as large model training, powering real-time chatbots, and AI agents. TPU development has been ongoing for a decade. Google said Ironwood is more than four times faster than its predecessor, and major customers have already begun queuing for access. Google stated that AI startup Anthropic plans to use up to 1 million new TPUs to run its Claude model. (2) According to Counterpoint Research's Monthly India Smartphone Tracker, India's smartphone market shipments increased 5% YoY in Q3 2025, with shipment value up 18% YoY, reaching a quarterly record high. The market is gradually transitioning to a stable growth phase driven by value growth, a trend primarily fueled by festive stockpiling and sales promotions across online and offline channels, supported by convenient installment payment plans, trade-in policies, and significant discounts. (3) A report titled "Digital and Intelligent Transformation of Developing Chinese Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Enterprises," drafted by the Development Research Center of the State Council's Department of Innovation Development Research and recently released in Beijing, indicates that global development has entered a new era of digital and intelligent transformation. China is expected to become one of the world's largest markets for manufacturing digital and intelligent transformation, with the vast number of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises becoming the focus of deepening this transformation under new circumstances. Currently, the pace of digital and intelligent transformation in Chinese manufacturing is accelerating. According to IDC predictions, by 2027, IT investment and communication service budgets for Chinese SMEs are expected to increase 25%, showing strong momentum in transformation investment. The report notes that in recent years, a number of Chinese small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises have promoted deep integration of technological innovation and business model innovation, using digital and intelligent transformation to meet new demands, create new supply, and explore new spaces. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited Boost from Emerging Sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors. Spot Market: Influenced by the slight rise in tin prices, spot market transactions were sluggish yesterday. Most downstream and end-user enterprises had conducted small-scale restocking and necessary just-in-time procurement in the previous trading sessions, resulting in low purchase willingness at present. The majority of traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use this information to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 6, 2025: Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) edged up slightly during the night session and then maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 282,820 yuan/mt, up 0.28% from the previous trading day. Macro: (1) According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, the average operating rate for major construction machinery products in October 2025 was 55%, down 10.1 percentage points YoY and down 0.16 percentage points MoM. The breakdown was as follows: excavators (55.1%), loaders (58.2%), truck cranes (69.7%), crawler cranes (56.9%), tower cranes (39.9%), road rollers (42.4%), pavers (57%), rotary drilling rigs (40.1%), off-highway mining dump trucks (45.9%), concrete pump trucks (36.1%), concrete mixer trucks (30.9%), and forklifts (58.5%). (2) BYD stated during an institutional survey that its energy storage business began in 2008, focusing on the R&D and application of energy storage systems and new-type batteries. The company has established a complete industry chain integrating R&D, manufacturing, sales, service, and recycling of energy storage products. Its products comprehensively cover application areas such as power supply-side ESS, grid-side ESS, industrial and commercial ESS, and household ESS, with both technological strength and shipments ranking among the top in the industry. As of October 2025, the company's total installed capacity of NEV power batteries and ESS batteries exceeded 230 GWh. (3) Data from the Passenger Car Association showed that, based on preliminary statistics, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China from October 1 to 31 reached 2.387 million units, up 6% YoY and up 7% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 19.395 million units, up 9% YoY. Retail sales of NEVs in the national passenger vehicle market reached 1.4 million units, up 17% YoY and up 8% MoM. Cumulative NEV retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 10.27 million units, up 23% YoY. Wholesale sales of NEVs by passenger vehicle producers from October 1 to 31 reached 1.614 million units, up 16% YoY and up 8% MoM. Cumulative NEV wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 12.061 million units, up 30% YoY. Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened overall in major producing regions such as Yunnan. Most smelters were expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchases remained cautious, and high prices noticeably suppressed actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remained small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors. Spot market: Trading in the spot tin ingot market was relatively active, with some downstream and end-users placing orders at yesterday's lower price levels, conducting small-scale restocking purchases and just-in-time procurement. Most traders concluded transactions of around 20 mt, while a few traders traded more than two truckloads. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making recommendations. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]