SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices briefly rose at the opening, touching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward amid a broad decline in non-ferrous metals. Prices dipped to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in the later session, rebounded slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,695 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, tightening supply in east China. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking, with total volumes declining. Additionally, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, reducing imported lead inflows into China. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with rigid demand contracting notably. The weak supply-demand pattern persisted, and SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the near term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 27 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices edged up initially, touching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt. Bullish momentum then slowed down, and prices moved sideways around 16,770 yuan/mt. In the afternoon session, futures fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,690 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,715 yuan/mt, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, and supply in east China remained tight. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment on procurement, with rigid demand in the market contracting notably. Affected by weakness in both supply and demand, SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 24 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt intraday. During the early to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways in the range of 16,635–16,675 yuan/mt, edged higher in the afternoon session, touching a high of 16,700 yuan/mt, before pulling back to close at 16,670 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. The off-season trend in the lead-acid battery sector deepened, with downstream production cuts expanding and purchasing demand remaining persistently weak, while lead ingot social inventory continued to build steadily. In Jiangsu, Anhui, and other regions, secondary lead enterprises increasingly curtailed or halted production, tightening regional supply. Overall market sentiment remained mixed between bulls and bears, compounded by macro disruptions, with lead prices expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data Source Disclaimer: All data beyond publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

SMM, April 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt intraday. SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, hitting a low of 16,590 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently rebounded slightly, but limited fundamental support constrained the rebound, ultimately closing at 16,660 yuan/mt with a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. On the sentiment front, the US extended the ceasefire, cooling geopolitical risk-aversion sentiment. On the fundamental side, regional secondary lead supply remained tight in China, and inventory at some lead smelters pulled back. Combined with some downstream enterprises planning to take holidays, market supply and demand were both subdued, and lead prices are expected to continue range-bound consolidation in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 22: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of 16,675 yuan/mt, before rebounding. From mid-session to the close, prices moved sideways within the range of 16,690-16,755 yuan/mt, ultimately settling at 16,730 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick with a decline of 155 yuan/mt, or 0.92%. Recently, LME lead inventory continued destocking and spot premiums in Southeast Asia remained elevated, with the ex-China lead market fundamentals stronger than those in China. Meanwhile, the refined lead import window was close to shutting, tightening domestic lead ingot supply somewhat. However, downstream consumption was in the traditional off-season, and spot trading was sluggish. Under the pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,615 yuan/mt today. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,570-16,625 yuan/mt. Toward the end of the session, driven by a broad rally in non-ferrous metals, lead prices rose and touched a high of 16,690 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly to close at 16,655 yuan/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of 85 yuan/mt, or 0.51%. Lead prices edged higher today, buoyed by recovering macro sentiment. Fundamentals side, some secondary lead smelters in east China halted production this week due to shrinking scrap battery recycling volumes and tight raw material supply, while imported lead ingots continued to flow into China in April, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side. The consumption side remained weighed down by the off-season, with overall performance staying weak. Amid the tug-of-war between sentiment-driven momentum and weak fundamentals, lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 9: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,760 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, before rebounding and stabilizing. Towards the end of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated around the daily average line, ultimately closing at 16,785 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 15 yuan/mt or 0.09%. Overnight, the Lebanon-Israel conflict continued to escalate, hostile actions between Iran and Israel resumed, and Iranian media reported that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. Combined with rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, the non-ferrous metals sector was broadly under pressure during the session. Supply side, more enterprises resumed operations after the Qingming Festival and maintenance capacity gradually recovered, with both primary lead and secondary lead supply increasing slightly. Demand side, downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, a few entities restocked on dips, while the rest primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions remained sluggish. In the short term, upward momentum for lead prices is insufficient, and prices are expected to move sideways. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 8: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt during the session. In early trading, eased geopolitical tensions drove a broad rally across non-ferrous metals, pushing SHFE lead prices to fluctuate upward and touch a high of 16,885 yuan/mt. However, as fundamentals provided weak support for lead prices, the price center shifted lower. From mid-session to the close, prices moved sideways within the range of 16,790-16,855 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,800 yuan/mt with a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Tensions in the Middle East eased significantly today, with relevant parties including the US and Iran reaching a temporary ceasefire consensus, reducing the risk of regional conflict escalation. The recovery in macro sentiment drove lead prices higher. On the fundamentals side, some secondary lead smelters planned to cut production due to shrinking scrap battery recycling volumes. Combined with the concurrent resumption and maintenance at secondary lead smelters in April, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side intensified. On the consumption side, the ongoing traditional off-season continued to weigh on demand, with downstream battery manufacturers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak purchase willingness. Under the combined influence of sentiment-driven support and fundamental tug-of-war, SHFE lead prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.