China’s silver prices weakened this week, and the price spread between SGE TD prices and the SHFE April contract continued to narrow sharply. Imported silver ingots kept flowing into the market, but spot transactions turned noticeably sluggish in late March, with suppliers continuously lowering spot premiums to sell off inventory. As orders for PV silver powder and silver paste declined, silver nitrate enterprises generally said that after current order deliveries are completed, renewals of new orders will decrease, so raw material silver ingot procurement volume generally fell this week. As both silver prices and spot premiums showed signs of weakening, silver nitrate and other downstream enterprises mostly stayed cautious amid fears of further declines, negotiating for rigid-demand purchases and only buying the dip. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for Shanghai market standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been cut to below 100 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, non-registered-brand silver ingots were occasionally quoted at parity or even at slight discounts for sale, but suppliers of standard silver ingots still mostly held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. After spot trading turned sluggish, the spot silver ingot market may see suppliers shift inventory and ship to delivery warehouses, and SGE or SHFE inventory is expected to post a slight buildup going forward. Inventory side, silver ingot inventory in Shenzhen posted a slight buildup this week, while inventories in some Shanghai warehouses did not increase significantly. Import profits for silver ingots narrowed sharply this week, and some smelters gradually began to fulfill export permits in late March, reducing domestic supply. Despite softer downstream consumption, silver ingot social inventory did not show a continued buildup trend this week.

[SMM Tin Commentary: The SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated Near the 370,000 Level, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision]

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the first fundamental indicator to watch post-holiday is undoubtedly inventory! SMM compiles the latest inventory data from three markets (LME, COMEX, SHFE) and the evolving logic for the future outlook.

The fundamental challenge in the 304 stainless steel industrial chain is Instrument Asymmetry, a scenario where the dominant cost driver, Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), lacks a direct futures contract and forces participants to manage 75% of their risk using standardized proxies like pure nickel. This creates a lethal threat not from price volatility itself, but from the Basis Risk that occurs when physical assets and hedging tools decouple.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Rapid Pullback After Macro Sentiment-Driven Rally, SHFE Tin Enters Consolidation Phase]

[ SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE tin contracts fluctuate after rapid decline from highs, market tension eases releasing some demand ]

[SMM Analysis:The Back structure is difficult to sustain ]

[SMM Analysis: Deep B's performance is not enough, while transition to C is not yet complete] SMM believes that the backwardation structure of SHFE will weaken in the future market. The premise of our following discussion is based on the existing tariff levels in the US.

The monthly Metal Index (MMI) for copper showed a downward trend, declining by 4.23% from March to April. Based on current copper prices, analysts appear to be grappling with ongoing changes in trade policies.

[5.21 Morning Meeting Summary] The influence of macro policy factors that frequently disrupted the market in the early stage has gradually weakened, and the market has returned to the logic dominated by supply and demand. Despite stainless steel prices being at a low level in recent years and facing resistance to further declines, the industry's high-supply pattern remains unchanged, with steel production continuing to fluctuate at highs and social inventory remaining high. Coupled with the end of the traditional peak consumption season, weak downstream demand, and intensified recent price fluctuations, the market sentiment is characterized by strong wait-and-see attitudes, and the pressure on traders to sell goods is significant.